Covid-19 Update and Tweets of the Day

Some people approach all issues from a political perspective. They don’t really understand the science, so when they try to make arguments in favor it quickly becomes incoherent nonsense. I tried for awhile to read dgb’s posts, but it became quickly apparent that he adds nothing of value.

This is a map of number infected in Portugal.

The rules were the same all round. Maybe the difference was because of larger cities, or weather, or the outbreak started earlier in the north because of travel. Population density also, but though I haven’t the figures it is clear that per inhabitant is very different from region to region.

There are more possibilities for why outbreaks might happen in certain places in any country. Maybe air-conditioning, maybe new virus strain, maybe social distancing and masks, maybe purposeful seeding by rivals, maybe lack of testing and missing the start of outbreaks, maybe faulty testing, maybe too much testing giving false sense of scenario because most tested are not infected etc. etc. etc.

That anyone consistently reduces this to one, usually political, facet is simply wrong.

Apart from urging or simply accepting a sense of precaution in society, there is really only one thing to be asked from government, and that is transparent and consistent, cross readable, up to date data on how the epidemic is evolving, so that any person can plan accordingly. The data is collected, but it seems that it is not fully presented, or is often not presented in a consistent manner, in case it is “not complete” and so might be “misleading” etc.

In the US, you have 400 million people that could participate, yet there is no authoritative study on the difference in a selected population of mask wearers vs. no mask wearers, there is no study on a town where air-conditioning is in use vs. not, or households with similar criteria. Etc.

It’s tedious but it is not rocket science, I guess it is even easier just to blame others.

I wrote this before reading this banter between DGB and Mish, but I will post it here. Various people have their information and some have very close experience that creates quite acute perspectives, but from what I gather no-one is more right, because it always reduces to what we know, and we know very little in fact. Even what we understand now may be outdated by tomorrow, what one person experiences might be opposite or irrelevant in real terms to the next.

So, well you know the amount of data and methodology you are going to have to go through to get a (large) margin of error to apply to what happened over the space of months. Months, because all these comparisons are relative. I don’t think so, but sure argue out current data sets for personal error if need be.

I think DBG is talking from an intuition and cynicism that is based on broad experience, at the least it provides a somewhere from which to argue out counter views. Personally I find some other commentators much more insistent on their views than DBG, without pointing out anyone in particular at all, and not that they provide the nescessary weight to their position either to be so. I’m not judging, for all I know maybe everyone is right, or wrong, somehow.

I would also like to point out that according to the NY Times, in a story published on June 16, 2020, Fauci seems to agree with the basis of my argument:

“If you test more, you will likely pick up more infections,” Dr. Fauci said, also adding: “Once you see that the percentage is higher, then you’ve really got to be careful, because then you really are seeing additional infections that you weren’t seeing before.”

NOTE: This was reported in other places as well, but they may have used the NY Times as a source and I have no way to verify the authenticity of their reporting…

The numbers I see are 2k total in hospitals each day, not 2k new admissions each day.

Not sure why anyone would be inclined to click on your articles after it became known that you don’t read them yourself.

Its about capacity. If there arent enough beds like there weren’t in Italy you will have people dying at home and in the hallways of the hospital. You really are clueless. I wouldn’t guess you know the first thing about how hospitals function.

So many conspiracies…. how do you keep track of them all.

Yes, the the D614G mutation is more contagious, but most of the cases in the US have been of the D614G variety already. That was the mutation that was in Europe, and it spread to the US from Italy. Only the West Coast had many cases that were of the original Wuhan variety. Perhaps that explains why Washington and California were able to control the initial spread fairly easily, while New York and New Jersey were not, but why California is seeing a new wave now. This is old news. Unless you are in California, the variety of Covid in your neighborhood most likely has been D614G all along.

That article is exceptionally misleading, by the way. Besides the above, it acts like the disclosure that cells sprout tentacles which release virus particles is somehow nefarious. It’s a given that all viruses use a similar process. They take over the cell, which reproduces more virus, and then the cell dies and releases many virus particles in the process. The pictures of the tentacles in interesting to see, but don’t make the virus any more scary than any other virus, at least, not if someone has a reasonable level of scientific knowledge. What does make is more dangerous is the ruthless efficiency with which it takes over the cells, and the fact that it’s choice entry point, ACE2, is plentiful in many organs, plus the fact that by destroying ACE2 receptors, the body begins to experience oxidative stress, which can lead to unpredictable outcomes. One other thing that makes is more serious than most viruses is that it also has the ability to enter lymphocyte cells via the CD147 receptor, which allows it to enter and destroy lympocytes. That makes for a battle from the start. Can Covid destoy the lymphs before the lymphs can destroy Covid? In young people with a healthy immune system, who start with a small dose of virus, the lymphs win. The weaker the immune system, and the higher the intitial dose, the better the chance that Covid destroys the lymphs. When total lymphocytes fall under 0.8, that’s a sign that it will likely be a difficult case.

All this science is not to scare people; it’s to inform people that, like me, are interested in the science. Those not interested in the science shouldn’t worry about it, but should follow the advice of doctors. In my opinion, understanding how the virus works gives us all an ability to plan for it. For example, I’m taking Vitamin D, and Quercitin. Vitamin D strengthens the immune system. Quercitin is believed to reduce the furin levels, potentially making it harder for the virus to enter cells (it uses furin to cut the head off the spike and penetrate the cell wall). I also have NAC and SOD+gliadin on hand in case I get infected. Both are anti-oxidants, which will hopefully reduce the oxidative damage, and NAC is also believed to be able to cleave Von Willebrand factor, reducing the risk of blood clots forming. If infected, I plan to start both and take them until such time as I need additional treatment, at which time I will follow whatever the doctor recommends. Is it a good plan? I hope so, but I am no doctor, so please don’t consider it to be medical advice.

No, the virus is not going to kill 50 million people like the Spanish flu did (though it will likely kill more than any flu since 1918). Why not 50 million? For three reasons. First, we know more about how viruses spread now, so we can limit it’s spread more effectively (though some would prefer not to use that knowledge). Second, we have much better capability today of treating people, and better drugs, so people will not die. Some believe that many of the deaths from the Spanish flu were caused by aspirin overdose, and that’s a mistake that we will definitely not make this time. Many more were caused by cytokine storms, similar to Covid19. Today we have drugs to limit cytokine storms, but in 1918 they did not. Third, we have much more potential to make a vaccine today.

The presentation of new cases is not trustworthy in some countries, numbers are obviously massaged. In Spain towards zero coincided with end of lockdown, but date of end of lockdown was clearly pre-planned. Method of presentation changed to fit. Now it is “find the new outbreak”, with a dozen hotpoints of a few tens or a hundred related cases all being tracked, implying “it is under control” and elsewhere is fine but pay attention. I don’t believe this, there is something that does not make sense on what we are presented, same for China. Though cases were much reduced due to lockdown I do not believe the virus just dissappeared from most of the population, I think there is low background infection that is now going to expand. There is the question of its visibility due to younger population and old being more cautious. Not saying this out of paranoia etc., it is that the presentation is too neat and does not make sense in practical terms – question is which side the errors are. This is what I dislike about authorities, it is almost better to have some you don’t listen to – as long as you take the virus half seriously at least yourself.

In Portugal restrictions were raised for Lisbon because cases surged there. As a whole the country is seeing a slow rise in cases but always relatively low. The UK kept Portugal and Sweden on a quarantine list… so you can visit Spain from UK and from there Portugal then return via Spain and what ? Apart certain areas Portugal has little virus, but now whatever is going on in Spain will be brought to Portugal because the border is open.

How countries manage their outbreaks has become a political gauge within and between them , like in the US. Some are more honest than others. Spain won’t allow Morroccans in because Morrocco had previously stopped trade with the Spanish enclaves, even though EU says Morrocco is allowed entry. Morrocco is tied to France because of language and migration etc. , where the french president recently did poorly in the polls so fired his pm who is now being investigated for how he handled the virus.

So it’s all confused, I don’t know what is incompetence, show, using the pandemic for other ends etc.

People generally want to put the virus behind, not sure.