The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 1.3 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Key Points
- The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.1 percent in August.
- Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.
- Increases in the shelter, food, and medical care indexes were the largest of many contributors to the monthly seasonally adjusted all items increase.
- The food index continued to rise, increasing 0.8 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.7 percent.
- The energy index fell 2.1 percent over the month as the gasoline index declined 4.9 percent but the natural gas and electricity indexes increased.
- The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in September, as it did in August.
- The indexes for shelter, medical care, motor vehicle insurance, new vehicles, household furnishings and operations, and education increased over the month.
- The indexes for used cars and trucks, apparel, and communication declined.
Bloomberg Econoday Consensus
Economists at Bloomberg Econoday expected a 0.2 percent overall rise, and a 0.4 percent rise excluding food and energy.
The Econoday consensus missed the mark badly vs a 0.4 percent overall rise and a 0.6 percent rise excluding food and energy.
CPI Year-Over-Year
CPI Year-Over-Year Details
- CPI: 8.2 Percent
- Rent of Primary Residence: 7.2 Percent
- CPI Less Food and Energy: 6.6 Percent
- OER: 6.7 Percent
- Shelter: 6.6 Percent
- Medical Care Services: 6.5%
Year-over-year the CPI is decelerating but all of that is due to energy. Inflation in the other five components is accelerating.
Food (not shown) is up 10.8% year-over-year. It hit a year-over-year high last month of 10.9%.
CPI Energy
Energy is the only bright spot in the CPI, as gasoline declined 7.7 percent in July, 10.6 percent in August, and another 4.9 percent in September.
However, the composite energy index was down a modest 2.1 percent in September because natural gas rose 2.9 percent and the cost of electricity rose 0.4 percent.
Expect a CPI Energy Surge in October Due to Rising Gasoline Prices
Things do not look good looking ahead. Gasoline fell in September but October will be another matter.
As noted on October 9, I Expect a CPI Energy Surge in October Due to Rising Gasoline Prices
An Inflationary Quagmire
President Biden’s policies do not at all help, nor do actions in the state of California.
Please note the Inflationary Quagmire of US and EU Climate Change Hypocrisy
And in case you missed it, California Accuses Valero of Oil Price Gouging, Valero’s Response is Amusing
Finally, please consider The Biden Oil Fiasco Continues With Export Control Threats
Looking Ahead
If rent prices jump again in October, look for further acceleration in the CPI because energy is poised for another surge.
Shelter is over 32 percent of the CPI.
This post originated at MishTalk.Com.
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Mish
It is always good to do some research before investing your hard earned money. I have small positions in PLUG and BLDP and a few others.
Starting at December 2021 all hell broke loose with sector volatilities
all over the place. This looks like a knot in the trend brought on by the 2020
collapse in services and followed by a surge in goods followed by a surge in
services and goods followed by exhaustion in both. What a ride! We live in
exciting times. The globalization period of the 1990’s till 2008 were so boring
by comparison and was like watching paint dry.
A period of disorganization is always followed by a period
of reorganization, consolidation with the corresponding lessening of volatility
and this period will be pass as have the others. Peak inflation is still a ways
away but will probably not be double-digit. If the Fed holds the course
eventually inflation will subside and bonds will be yielding the 2-3% real
rates which historically going back centuries of capitalism is what the average
return was. If we get there then the Fed will have done its job and I will applaud
them, give them prizes and someone will write books about them not to mention a
few statues here and there as well but they have to keep their collective noses the wheel first.
C’mon … you know better.Massive debt overhang + negative real earnings = something else
September 2022. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.9 percent in
the average workweek resulted in a 3.8-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this
period.