CPI Rises 0.3%, Core 0.1%, Both More Subdued Than Expected

The BLS reports the CPI for all items rose 0.3% in April led by gasoline and shelter.

CPI Month-Over-Month

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Key Month-Over-Month Points

• The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.4 percent in March.
• The gasoline index continued to increase, rising 5.7 percent and accounting for over two-thirds of the seasonally adjusted all items monthly increase. The index for energy rose 2.9 percent, although the index for natural gas declined and the index for electricity was unchanged.
• The food index fell in April, its first monthly decline since June 2017.
• The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent for the third consecutive month.
• The indexes for shelter, medical care, education, and new vehicles all rose in April. The indexes for used cars and trucks, apparel, and household furnishings and operations were among those that declined over the month.

CPI Year-Over-Year

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CPI Year-Over Year Key Points

• Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.
• The all items index increased 2.0 percent for the 12 months ending April, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending November 2018.
• The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.1 percent over the last 12 months, and the food index rose 1.8 percent.
• The energy index increased 1.7 percent over the past year after posting 12-month declines the past 4 months.

Econoday Consensus

The Econoday consensus called for a 0.4% rise in the CPI with the Core up 0.2%. Both underperformed by 0.1 percentage points.

Your Results

Your results no doubt vary from the BLS report especially if you buy your own health insurance.

The BLS says year-over-year health care commodities are up a mere 0.2%, and health care services are up 2.3%.

I question both.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock