This morning the BLS released its CPI Report for August.
- The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.5 percent in July.
- The indexes for gasoline, household furnishings and operations, food, and shelter all rose in August and contributed to the monthly all items seasonally adjusted increase.
- The energy index increased 2.0 percent, mainly due to a 2.8-percent increase in the gasoline index.
- The index for food rose 0.4 percent, with the indexes for food at home and food away from home both increasing 0.4 percent.
- The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in August, its smallest increase since February 2021.
- The indexes for household operations and shelter, the indexes for new vehicles, recreation, and medical care also rose in August.
- The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, and motor vehicle insurance all declined over the month.
CPI Year-Over-Year Percent Change
- The all items index rose 5.3 percent for the 12 months ending August, a smaller increase than the 5.4-percent rise for the period ending July.
- The index for all items less food and energy rose 4.0 percent over the last 12 months, also a smaller increase than the period ending July.
- The energy index rose 25.0 percent over the last 12 months.
- The food index increased 3.7 percent over the last 12 months.
Econoday Economist Expectations
- The consensus opinion was for the CPI to rise 0.4% month-over-month vs. the reported 0.3%
- The consensus opinion was for the Core CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month vs. the reported 0.1%
- The consensus opinion was for the CPI to rise 5.3% year-over-year vs. the reported 5.3%
- The consensus opinion was for the Core CPI to rise 4.2% year-over-year vs. the reported 4.0%
The Real CPI
The CPI factoring in housing and medical is much greater than the reported CPI. I will publish an alternate CPI that factors in housing when the next Case-Shiller home price data is released.
My last report had year-over-year CPI at 8.57%. For discussion, please see Housing Adjusted Real Interest Rates Sink to a Record Low -8.5 Percent.
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