Pocketbook issues continue to dominate consumer views of the economy.
That’s a 50-year chart from the University of Michigan Sentiment Final Results for December 2025
Consumer sentiment confirmed its early month reading, inching up less than two index points from November, within the margin of error. While lower-income consumers posted gains, sentiment for higher-income consumers was little changed. Buying conditions for durable goods fell for the fifth straight month, whereas expectations for personal finances and business conditions rose in December. Labor market expectations lifted a bit this month, though a solid majority of 63% of consumers still expects unemployment to continue rising during the next year. Despite some signs of improvement to close out the year, sentiment remains nearly 30% below December 2024, as pocketbook issues continue to dominate consumer views of the economy.
Year-ahead inflation expectations decreased for the fourth consecutive month to 4.2%. This is the lowest reading in 11 months but is still above the 3.3% seen in January. Long-run inflation expectations eased from 3.4% last month to 3.2% in December, matching the January 2025 reading. In comparison, readings ranged between 2.8 and 3.2% last year, and were below 2.8% throughout 2019 and 2020.
Data download is sporadic in the 50-year tables. The lead chart is from the University of Michigan, with my anecdotes.
Here are some charts since 2015.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Overall Index
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Current Conditions
Current conditions at 50.4 is a record low.
University of Michigan Consumer Inflation Expectations
Inflation Expectations
- One-Year Look Ahead: 4.2 Percent
- One-Year Look Ahead 3-Month Moving Average: 4.4 Percent
- Five-Year Look Ahead: 3.2 Percent
- Five-Year Look Ahead 3-Month Moving Average: 3.5Percent
Hello Jerome Powell, is 4 percent “well anchored”?
Close to target?
It’s a good thing for the Fed that inflation expectations don’t matter.
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Please note Only 56 Percent of Republicans Say the Economy Is Good
If you don’t understand why, please click on some of the preceding links.
Inflationary Depression seems to be locked in for the duration.
Welcome to the Trump/GOP crashing economy. Happens every time with republican clowns. At some point, we need thinking adults back in control of government.
Just wait till health care insurance premiums explode and people can’t afford to eat out, shop, travel, or do anything else but pay for health insurance. A circus can be fun and entertaining with elephants, clowns, and freaks but sooner or later you gotta go home and pay the bills.
Next up is a steep stock market correction or crash….coming right up in 2026.
You left out the Gold Crash in 2026? It has started it climb towards such, as all the “True” Gold Investors are Speaking Up “Now is the time to buy, don’t be left out in the Cold” type Rhetoric! Heck all the Countries in the World are buying Gold now , don’t you know, or haven’t you heard? The “True”Investors of course can’t wait to sell, and grab All The cash coming their way.
One thing I do very much admire & Respect about History, and that’s the simple Fact, that it does continually “Repeat Itself” as it did in 2013, and is about to do so once again in 2026…
Silver is a much better play. It’s a monetary tool and heavy industrial commodity. AI relies heavily on silver even beyond the AI bubble.
I agree with Silver and like Silver as an equivalent investment as well! Depends how things are going and where. Silver wins in Manufacturing requirements, but gold wins in the massive Jewelry markets. They are both speculative investment plays, and can move quickly if heavy investors liquidate, or needs dissipate.
Gold is a real asset – there is a finite amount of it. That’s where its value lies. At some point, that will be important.
In the coming crash, I think the gold price will do nothing, just hold steady.
– Gold is a real asset – there is a finite amount of it. > It’s an investment, no different than any other investment. Its value is in the eyes of the buyer / holder and that’s it. Not tied to anything but itself, and there is a shi&#$d of it out there, and everywhere.
– That’s where its value lies. At some point, that will be important. > When Gold crashes, the true investors HOLD until the bottom and many speculate once again. Others sell if Cash is needed obviously. Som hold forever…
– In the coming crash, I think the gold price will do nothing, just hold steady. > That won’t happen. Way too much CASH will be needed. Some bought gold, speculating on such an occurrence, so they could sell it for needed profit.
Who know however, so you could be Correct!
When I’m hungry, I hope I have a lot of yellow rocks!
Much of the profit taking from Gold, will be earmarked for specific Stocks within the Market. The powerful are in the know, and will know what stocks will be very wise investments to make. Not AI imo, but certainly in energy (all), and New Long Term Opportunities, that will come to fruition, from the Billions in U.S. (NEW $)Investments…
You could be right. Asset rotation takes place all of the time. I was reading some stuff recently by Michael Burry. He is of the opinion to start liquidating stock holdings going forward. His thesis? You might miss some of the continuing upside moves in the market, but you will be protected from a much greater move to the downside. Suggests cash, short-term treasuries, dividend-paying energy stocks, and some precious metals, but need to do immediate research on quality, well-managed companies to jump in to buy at discounted price levels.
Not familiar with Burry much, but great points! Parking cash, if possible, in lower but guaranteed investments is smart too. Gold is great if you financially Hold It at times, as they will arise, and if cash is required, many will need to or prefer to sell it, unfortunately at a loss… That’s what the True Investors count on. Money often times Controls where the money goes, and as such much of the profits will be “Re-Invested” by the same, At The Bottom…
– Just wait till health care insurance premiums explode and people can’t afford to eat out, shop, travel, or do anything else but pay for health insurance.
> Hmm… That’s exactly what happened to Me! When I had 2 kids we couldn’t afford to eat out Ever, Travel haha joking, Not, and shopping was hand me downs mostly. Insurance an expense too of course… but we paid that First Always!