Cuba was already in dire straits. Oil is the finishing touch.
Cuba’s Economy Collapses
Trump’s de facto declaration of war on Venezuela (a naval blockade is undoubtedly war) has taken a toll on two economies, Venezuela and and Cuba.
The Wall Street journal accurately notes Communist-ruled Cuba was already suffering from food shortages, blackouts and exodus of people, and now faces loss of cheap oil from Nicolás Maduro.
Please consider Oil Blockade of Venezuela Pushes Cuba Toward Collapse
Cubans are going hungry, suffering from spreading disease and sleeping outdoors with no electricity to power fans through the sweltering nights. A quarter of the population has fled during the island’s most prolonged economic crisis.
And it’s about to get worse.
The U.S. is ratcheting up pressure on Havana’s key benefactor, Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro’s regime, which has kept the Communist-ruled nation afloat with cheap oil. Now Venezuelan oil exports are at risk thanks to a partial blockade targeting sanctioned tankers—the kind that carry about 70% of the country’s crude.
One tanker that the U.S. has already seized was en route with almost two million barrels of Venezuelan oil.
Venezuela has been vital for Cuba’s economy since 1999, when then-President Hugo Chávez described the two countries as bound together “in a sea of happiness.” Cuba deployed sports trainers, doctors and counterintelligence agents to Venezuela, the latter to root out traitors who might overthrow Chávez. Venezuela responded with 100,000 barrels of oil shipped to Cuba daily.
The heavily subsidized oil shipments have fallen to 30,000 barrels a day. Agents from Cuba’s vaunted intelligence service remain in Venezuela, where they have worked to purge disloyal military officers and government officials, helping ensure Maduro remains ensconced in power.
“It is really bleak and desperate,” said Ted Henken, author of books on Cuba and a professor at New York’s Baruch College who regularly travels to the island. “Hope is gone, and people are desperate to get out.”
More than 2.7 million people—about a quarter of the island’s population, many of them young and ambitious—have fled the island since 2020, hundreds of thousands of them to the U.S., according to calculations of a Havana-based demographer, Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos.
“What Cuba is going through—a phenomenon I call demographic hollowing out—is nothing less than a humanitarian disaster only seen in countries in armed conflict,” he said.
Luis Robles, 33 years old, a political prisoner in Cuba until October and now in exile in Spain, said, “The situation for ordinary Cubans is very hard.”
“It’s very hard because there’s no food, there’s no medicines, there aren’t any public institutions that function as they should—hospitals, schools. It’s all a disaster,” Robles said.
He said Cubans who have access to dollars from relatives abroad can eke by.
“But it’s really unsustainable for those Cubans who live with the miserable public salary,” he said, referring to state employees, who earn just a few dollars a month in Cuban currency.
Nearly 90% of people live in extreme poverty, and 70% go without at least a meal a day, said the Social Rights Observatory, a think tank that conducted a month of polling this past summer. For more than 70% of Cubans, their main concerns are the lack of food and the constant blackouts, which can go for 18 hours or more a day in some regions. The observatory found that 78% intend to flee the island.
Prelude to War or Started War?
Senator Rand Paul says Seizure of Oil Tankers in Caribbean Is a ‘Prelude to War’
“I’m not for confiscating these liners. I’m not for blowing up these boats of unarmed people that are suspected of being drug dealers. I’m not for any of this,” Paul told ABC News’ “This Week” co-anchor Jonathan Karl.
Paul also described the administration’s policy of handling suspected drug traffickers as “bizarre and contradictory.”
“And then why is the former president [Juan Orlando] Hernandez of Honduras, who was in jail for 45 years, why is he released?” Paul asked. “So, some narco-terrorists are really OK and other narco-terrorists we’re going to blow up. And then some of them, if they’re not designated as a terrorist, we might arrest them.”
I disagree with Paul.
A naval blockade is not a prelude to war, it is war.
ABC Interview (Previous Link)
On Erika Kirk and Marco Rubio’s 2028 Vance endorsement
Karl (ABC): Is JD Vance the heir apparent here?Paul: I think there needs to be representatives in the Republican Party who still believe international trade is good, who still believe in free market capitalism, who still believe in low taxes. See, it used to separate conservatives and liberals that conservatives thought it was a spending problem. We didn’t want more revenue. We wanted less spending. But now all these pro terror protectionists, they love taxes, and so they tax, tax, tax, and then they brag about all the revenue coming in. That has never been a conservative position. So I’m going to continue to try to lead a conservative free market wing of the party, and we’ll see where things lead over time.
Karl: And that’s not JD Vance.
Paul: No.On retaliatory strikes in Syria
Paul: You know, it’s hard not to want to hit back when they kill some of our own. But I would like to go back, really, to the first Trump administration when he said he didn’t want the troops there. There’s like 900 troops, maybe a thousand, maybe 1,500. They’re not enough to fight a war. They’re not enough to be an effective strategic force. What they are is a target and a tripwire.
So we’ve done this retaliatory strike. Now, now, Donald Trump ought to do what Donald Trump proposed in the first administration, what Ronald Reagan did after the 1983 bomb. He left. There’s no reason for us to be in Syria. We need to leave Syria and not be a trip wire to getting back involved in another war.
An Act of War, Not a Prelude
The Encyclopedia Britannica notes that a naval blockade is legally considered an act of war under international law.
Blockade, an act of war whereby one party blocks entry to or departure from a defined part of an enemy’s territory, most often its coasts. Blockades are regulated by international law and custom and require advance warning to neutral states and impartial application.
Trump Announces Total Blockade
December 16, 2025 Truth Social: Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest Armada ever assembled in the History of South America. It will only get bigger, and the shock to them will be like nothing they have ever seen before — Until such time as they return to the United States of America all of the Oil, Land, and other Assets that they previously stole from us. The illegitimate Maduro Regime is using Oil from these stolen Oil Fields to finance themselves, Drug Terrorism, Human Trafficking, Murder, and Kidnapping. For the theft of our Assets, and many other reasons, including Terrorism, Drug Smuggling, and Human Trafficking, the Venezuelan Regime has been designated a FOREIGN TERRORIST ORGANIZATION. Therefore, today, I am ordering A TOTAL AND COMPLETE BLOCKADE OF ALL SANCTIONED OIL TANKERS going into, and out of, Venezuela. The Illegal Aliens and Criminals that the Maduro Regime has sent into the United States during the weak and inept Biden Administration, are being returned to Venezuela at a rapid pace. America will not allow Criminals, Terrorists, or other Countries, to rob, threaten, or harm our Nation and, likewise, will not allow a Hostile Regime to take our Oil, Land, or any other Assets, all of which must be returned to the United States, IMMEDIATELY. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
DONALD J. TRUMP
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Quite literally that is idiotic. And obviously so.
The New York Post reports US seizes vessel off Venezuelan coast, officials say—days after Trump announced ‘blockade’
The US military seized a second vessel off the coast of Venezuela Saturday, just days after President Donald Trump levied a “total blockade” of all sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving the now-surrounded country.
The Coast Guard-led operation was assisted by the US Navy in international waters, US officials said, although they declined to reveal where on the massive South American coastline the seizure happened, what the ship was transporting, and whether it was a ship from Venezuela.
Trump on Nation Building
May 13, 2025: Politico: Marveling at the Middle East’s rapid development, Trump contrasted his approach to the region, and the world more broadly, with his more traditional predecessors who long adhered to a foreign policy anchored in alliances built around advancing democratic values. Trump implied a particular break from the nation-building efforts and invasions of the George W. Bush-era, which typified the long-running GOP foreign policy orthodoxy that he’s long railed against and, as president, upended. He did not mention Bush by name.
“It is crucial for the wider world to note, this great transformation has not come from Western interventionists flying in with lectures on how to live or how to govern your own affairs,” Trump said, declaring that “the so-called ‘nation-builders’ wrecked far more nations than they built.”
Where Will They Go?
78 percent of Cubans want to leave, but where can they go?
Trump made it clear they are not welcome here. In fact, he wants to deport the Cubans who are here back to Cuba or elsewhere.
Venezuelans want to flee as well. That’s a whopping 28.5 million compared to Cuba’s 11 million.
Due to economic collapse and US sanctions, who would not want to leave? But nobody wants them.
Trump once criticized nation building and acts of war. But now that Trump is engaging in nation building and undeclared wars the MAGA hypocrites are all in favor of nation building and undeclared wars too.
I suppose if we starve them all to death there, they can’t come here. Apparently, that’s the mission.
Seriously, Is Anyone Really This Stupid?
Republican Congresswoman Calls Trump’s Immigration Policies Un-American
In case you missed it, please note Republican Congresswoman Calls Trump’s Immigration Policies Un-American
Miami Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar rips Trump.
In the statement, Salazar — one of only a few Cuban Americans in Congress — said the new policy amounted to “collective punishment” of “the innocent for the sins of the guilty.”
Punishment of the innocent. That’s what blockades do.
And “the so-called ‘nation-builders’ wrecked far more nations than they built,” said Trump. Indeed.
Does economic collapse mean regime collapse? Not sure. Cf. North Korea, Burma.
If regime collapse, then what follows? There is no one in Cuba who remembers life without a dictator.
My wife and I just cancelled our trip to Europe. They already hate us and Trump is making sure retaliation happens. The EU now are forcing fingerprints and visas for entrance. Trump is the last straw for us; there is plenty of the US to see.
Japan’s involvement in WWII was because of a US naval blockade that denied the country of oil. Their retaliation was first seen at Pearl Harbor. The rest is a rather brutal history.
Will China and/or Russia act in retaliation to the US’s actions?
Time will tell, and I can say that I’m glad to be here in the US and not in Cuba. Will the US simply blast the exodus of displaced persons from Venezuela and Cuba to pieces? Target practice? A method of expending ordinance so it can be replaced?
“There’s plenty o good money to be made ~ supplying the tools of the trade”.
Send back the Statue of Liberty. The Department of War is in charge and Fox News is gonna tell you what to think about it…
do we invade greenland before or after we take VZ and cuba? when do we rename DC to trumpopolis and amerika to Trumplandia. can we all wear armbands to identify ourselves as nazi or jew or illegal. if my history serves me, i don’t think the nazis ever broke any german laws.
China & Russia will do nothing. China is a mercantilist state that does not really favor strong alliances of any sort, and Russia is struggling in Ukraine which is a much easier target compared to the US.
Japan was at war with China. It’s pretty clear they needed to retaliate given the US embargo. FDR wanted war and probably knew what was coming. Trump’s action makes me ashamed to be American.
A tip of the hat to Country Joe!
FDR wanted war should really be FDR created war. Reference the McCollum memo.
“More than 2.7 million people—about a quarter of the island’s population, many of them young and ambitious—have fled the island since 2020…”
My Cuban neighbor fled California in 2020. Ramin, a CA Youtuber says 1.2 million people have left the state. Ramin says 360 businesses have as well.The Philips 66 refinery near Long Beach, closes this month. The Valero refinery in April, up north. More Gasoline will need to be shipped in from overseas by tanker. Also, some 300+ independent gas stations are shutting down because they can’t afford to replace their single hull tank with new double hull tanks by January’s state mandated deadline. Does Cuba have an exit tax? Democrats want to impose one on those leaving California, as a lot of tax money is leaving the state.
this is just inflicting pointless suffering.
the American people don’t want this, but MAGA isn’t speaking out. they’re not for it, but they’re not going to contradict their god, and if anyone attacks him for it they will say, what you’re pro-drug dealing or communism?
MAGA are what’s referred to as anti-anti. they aren’t affirmatively for what Trump is doing, but will reflexively attack anyone who is against it.
no one wants this except Trump and maybe some oil companies. and meanwhile millions are suffering.
MAGA is definitely for this. Hurting people in other countries is what makes one a real American.
Just saw this comment on an old reddit thread on types of imperial collapses. I happen to agree with this for at least the past decade. most of history is quite slow and boring and uneventful, even collapses of empires. ………………”You can look at what Europe is now to see a possible outcome. The US could become 50 different nation states under a flag but with mostly independent states and a puppet head with just a handful of common rules to keep it together.
The wealth disparity and regulations are already taking that direction, the “union” is becoming weaker, and ultimately they might just hit the breaking point where they are left almost completely on their own.
It doesn’t need to be violent or else, it could be just a relatively “boring” collapse.
https://www.longtermtrends.com/real-estate-gold-ratio/
the above chart is my second favorite of all time. after the dow/gold ratio chart.
remember kids, nobody pays taxes on gold unless they want to.
I read long ago Cubans were handling immigration at the airports in Venezuela. There would be no problem with Venezuela if the Cuban cancer had been excised in the early 60s or as soon as it was apparent Fidel was a communist and allying with the Soviets. Not sure if Ike or JFK is to blame for allowing the insidious system to root in the Americas.
communism lost. cuba poses zero threat to the US. we’re inflicting suffering there for no reason.
Castro didn’t turn to communism and the Soviets until after the Bay of Pigs.
From Perplexity…
“Castro was moving rapidly toward communism before the Bay of Pigs, but he did not publicly declare himself, or Cuba, to be Marxist‑Leninist until 1961, around and just after the invasion itself. In the late 1950s and immediately after 1959 he denied being a communist in public, while privately collaborating with the Cuban Communist Party and appointing Marxists to key positions in the new regime. He openly announced that he had been a Marxist–Leninist “for many years” only in late 1961, by which time Cuba had already aligned closely with the Soviet Union and crushed the Bay of Pigs invasion.”
If 78% of Cubans who wanted to leave had access to guns, only 22% would want to leave the island. It would be better for the US to free the 78% than to house them.
We should put a tariff on misery and death, our primary growth exports.
there already is a huge tariff on the nihilist warmongering exports. it’s called depression and suicide and an empire of assholes who demand drugs etc…….to kill themselves and shoot up school houses weekly……………yin and yang. shit has repurcussions
FYI: a few FACTSU.S. Assets Seized by VenezuelaTypes of Assets
that is only half the story. go back further.
You may want to research this more – I’d heard that the US oil cos. may not have held up their ends of their contracts with Venezuela.
If true this is civil actions subject to courts not the US military. I don’t pay taxes to support Exxon.
I never even thought about it, but destroying Cuba along with Venezuela, was a brilliant move by Rubio. No doubt he has talked with the president about building hotels and golf courses in Cuba after a nice submissive new government is installed. President Trump is MAGA and Cuba and Venezuela great again also. I can envision Cuba and Venezuela as the newest states. That will teach them commies!
As a tourist destination, Cuba has a lot to offer, and the citizens would benefit from the increased income.
cuba is already a tourist destination. why not go and see for yourself. the chinese are making investments there. i suspect in another decade or two it will be like old cuba before castro. casinos and fun
went to Cuba in Jan 88 on a week tour from Mexico. Learned a lot. In no hurry to return. Tragic what has happened to the island.
Rubio’s parents fled Cuba for Spain, like cowards, instead of staying and fighting for their country.
US is in deep trouble. LOSE LOSE SITUATION.
That’s what I see.
US is very good at destruction of countries but very bad at nation building.
Now 2 countries, Venezuela and Cuba are on economic collapse and famine.
If Trump continue destructing the country, Maduro will simply retreat his army to country side and left the country chaotic.
Then who is going to save the country?
That’s solely responsibility of US.
Its impossible to do that job without boots on the ground.
That’s when the real battle start with Maduro’s army.
If Trump retreat now Maduro will take credit.
If Trump continue destroying the countries it will be his responsibility to
rebuild the country and prepare to bring back the body bags.
His army will mostly disintegrate from hunger. Especially once a new regime comes in and replaces his and the US send over Soybeans (we have lots of them) and other food stuffs.
seems to me the the US has rushed into several countries thinking we could do nation building. My recollection is that it has not gone well. I think Americans are naive to think they will welcome us.
Cuba was already in deep do-do when Obama visited in 2016.
Chavez and Maduro destroyed the economy. Venezuela was the envy of the rest of latin america with its oil wealth. Only commies can impoverish the nation with the largest oil reserves on the planet. Well maybe fanatical muslims also can be just as destructive as Iran is not doing so well but certainly better than Cuba and Ven. If the billions diverted to the military and the allies in Lebanon, Yemen etc. had been spent on the people and their needs Iran would be a much happier country. That is why the chant No Gaza, no Lebanon, I give my life for Iran was heard during protests.
Trump and his administration don’t care about our troops, other countries or human rights. Trump is mentally ill and leading an administration of the most corrupt people ever.
All communist governments are GANGS ===
Maduro Must Go, DHS Secretary Noem Says, Vows More Tanker Intercepts. Democracy works perfectly. The amerikan public keeps voting for this. Since at least 1898. THE TRUE AMERIKAN EXCEPTIONALISM. LONG LIVE NIHILIST WARMONGERS.
Saddam Gaddafi Assad…
Is Paul going to run for President? (I hope)
LMAO. I suggested this in 2024, including here.
Don’t know how they do it. None of Cuba’s cars have screens or key fobs.
oh the irony of trying to topple socialist regimes while back home in the U.S. the young crowds yearn for more socialism.
Funny how this went from drug cartels to oil very quickly. It’ll all worked out perfectly just like Iraq. /s
Where are those tools and fools that were defending this under narco-terrorism faux reality?
They think we’re stupid.
the sign of wisdom is to be able to have many conflicting ideas. amerika is evil. amerika is also good sometimes. cuba is evil. cuba is also good sometimes. same with VZ……..i’ve been to cuba. my immediate family went to school at univ of havana. it’s a wonderfully complex place.
i’d recommend all amerikans take a trip to cuba and russia. great learning experiences. and fun, too.
Tucker says Russia is great! must be true. /s
Rand Paul rejects JD Vance as 2028 GOP nominee. Rand is being true to his principles here. maybe he will run again and give us a real choice.
JD vance is a nazi. and peter thiel and trump’ss bitch. trump will destroy amerika by jan 20, 2029. some states will secede by then.
Is it cool for counties to secede from states?
not much precedent. but sure sweetie, it’s kewl.
Counties are creations of the States, and the States are sovereign.
Only if you want to be part of Indiana, lol.
Let’s hope trump doesn’t make it another month let alone 2028. 86/47 since the 25th isn’t a reality, maybe impeachment in 2026 but removal is doubtful so god is our only hope.
“Cubans are going hungry, suffering from spreading disease”
What’s a little pain, suffering, death and destruction? So long as the US gets Venezuela’s oil, that’s all that matters.
Oh, and taking the oil is justified because we need to defeat the ‘narco-terrorists’.
“Narco-terrorists”, “weapons of mass destruction”, whatever. The script is always the same, but Charlie Brown, I mean the Usonian people always fall for Lucy, I mean, for it.
It’s not just Venezuela oil. Overthrowing Cuba has been a 65 year dream in the US and if Trump delivers on that (returning the land in Cuba + Oil assets in Venezuela) he’ll be considered a big winner by old monied interests regardless of what you and I might think.
Didn’t the US blockade of Japan trigger the pearl harbor attack? This bs can backfire in a bad way.
What are they gonna attack us with? Pointed sticks?
That’s rather arrogant. The U.S. Navy gave up against the Houthis, and AFAIK all they sent against the ships were drones and mostly smaller rockets. I’m not going to claim that Venezuela has or ever would receive a strategic system like Oreshnik but our aggressive posture does not work in our favor – it works against us as countries ask and eventually receive assistance.
How has the US Navy, “Given up against the Houthis”?
It might take only one pointed stick in the form of a drone.
Embargo, not full on blockade, but comes down to the same thing when you are 100% dependent on fossil fuel imports.
Vietnam is very prosperous now. Thankfully that domino theory didn’t turn out as expected. We could try minding our own business, but trying to run the planet has been our way for 80 years.
All about the benjamins. Not trying to run the planet.
What’s the difference?
Same would have happened in Korea if we has just left things to pragmatically minded Asians.
Keep ’em coming Mish. Appreciate you calling balls and strikes.
A blockade is strangulation.
Sanctions are siege warfare.
Both are war crimes and examples of collective punishment.
Although highly destructive, they rarely result in desirable political outcomes.
Has Cuba ever been on its own path as a sovereign that determines its own destiny?
Only losers get punished. Winners get to write history.
In other words don’t expect any ramifications for the US over this.
This is so wrong! We “won” the 2003 Iraq war, but the perception as a victory faded shortly after and over time it becomes clearer that it we were worse off for having done it. Punishment is already underway for our more recent military and financial (sanctioning) misadventures. Politicians can try to spin it another way but the public increasingly isn’t buying it!
You think we “won” the Iraq war? Which one, the first we gave up on the second we lost in the long run.
War is diplomacy with other means.
When other means fail.
In what sense was there a win?
What political outcomes did the US achieve?
Think it was, until Che & Fidel showed up.
You think Cubans were in charge or pre-Fidel Cuba?
Why the hell do you think they wanted a revolution?
That we are as Americans are tolerating this is as despicable as what Trump is doing, Destroying the regime of Cuba has long been the goal of Rubio. I hope he is happy and enjoying the suffering he has unleashed. While I have not been a supporter of Rand Paul I have come to believe he is one sane voice in Washington. Reading a history of American relations with Cuba – a country that simply wanted to be independent of the US is to read a story of pillage, lies, and deceit. Basically Cuba you can be independent if we are in charge. Nothing has changed. When each day you think you can not get angrier, Trump manages to do it.
This is a very naive view. Cuba has been and still is a very brutal dictatorship. It does not deserve to survive. I hope the current regime will collapse and be replaced by a “pro-freedom” one, for the sake of the people. Cubans deserve a future. It will certainly not happen under a communist regime.
How about “Communism bad. Overthrowing foreign governments is bad too”? Anything wrong with that formulation?
The best jobs in Cuba have always been in the military.
It doesn’t matter who is overthrown and who replaces them in Cuba.
The *only* way things there will change is by bowing to the US and ending the embargo on Cuba. That only happens if all the land pre-1960 is returned to its owners which is insane given most are dead and new generations have lived on it for decades. But that’s been the US demand forever and it’s clear Trump is under pressure to deliver on that from old money interests.
why is it our business? China is also a brutal regime and we trade with it. Cuba is a small island that poses no threat to us.
forcing regime collapse has not worked out well for the US. but maybe this time it’ll be different?
May be different this time it may cause us to eliminate our brutal regime in Washington. DJI to the rescue.
Should we expect more Cuban refugees to be washing up on Florida’s coast in the coming months?
The more destruction and torment that taco can cause anywhere in the world, the happier he is.
Destroying a violent tyrannical communist regime is a very good thing. I am all for it.
So you are in favor of going to war with China? Alrighty, then.
why do you care? and right now the people are suffering because of the US actions, not just their horrible regime.