Debt Ceiling Talks Stall, Little Chance of Congressional Deal by June 1
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33 comments on Debt Ceiling Talks Stall, Little Chance of Congressional Deal by June 1
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33 Comments
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10 months ago
Another day.
11 months ago
And…
Talks have resumed for the weekend.
Lol!
Now maybe people here can shift their focus to things that they have control over. Like their health and fitness, family and finances.
11 months ago
Never!!!
We still have Artificial Intelligence (the computer kind, not the Washington, DC kind) and the Ukraine war to worry about.
We can also worry about the newest Recession too.
I will be forming a new think tank: The International Institute for the Preservation of Fear (IIPF).
We should be able to raise a lot of donations from the folks around Washington and Sillycon Valley.
Thanks for listening.
10 months ago
I have been following the development of AI for some time now. Up till recently, it was merely something interesting to talk about (like nuclear fusion and autonomous vehicles). However, it appears to have reached the point where it will begin to have a significant impact (both good and bad) on our world (like assembly lines, automation, computers, the internet, and smartphones did).
Many here are interested in the micro, short term details (such as the debt ceiling negotiations that are called off at 2 pm, “OMG the market’s going to crash”, then resume at 7 pm). I am interested in the longer term scenario and how to profit from it.
Like oil and gas, AI is another big picture, long term story. I suspect that it is going to boost productivity and creativity dramatically over the next decade or two. Though it is difficult to identify which companies will get the greatest benefit from it; because I think it will be a boost for all those who find a way to harness it.
AI could be the key to greater economic growth for the next 20 years. Rather than the 1%/a US growth that I was expecting, we may get 2%/a in the next decade and even more in the following decade because of AI. It can help reduce inflation and ease the skilled labor shortage. Lots of positive possibilities. Lots of negative ones as well to worry about, which I am sure that people will be discussing on blogs like this.
Just two real world examples I recently heard of. AI debugged some complex new software in a matter of minutes, after a team of software developers spent days attempting to do the same thing and could not. A legal firm said AI is already increasing the productivity of its legal aids by 10x.
Spread that throughout the economy and you have a new productivity boom coming over the next decade as it gets applied. The problem is determining how to personally take advantage with individual investments. If you can’t pinpoint individual companies, you can simply buy the indexes.
Something to “think about” anyway.
11 months ago
I wonder if the Treasury will actually have enough cash in June to prioritize treasury principal and interest.
I did my first ChatGPT query on this topic and it says that about $1.2T is due in June with $100B due on June 1st:
So, the Treasury would need at least $100B on hand on June 1st and I believe it has only something like $68B today and that’s running down.
I’ve read lots of articles saying that on average, the treasury will have enough income per month to prioritize debt payments. That’s fine, but it assumes that they’ve stopped making some other payments. Of course, that’s not happening yet.
I also wonder how easy it will be to roll over $1T of debt in June if this drama continues. What’s the chance of failed auctions or much higher rates?
11 months ago
Why is no one talking about closing down National Parks and other Government buildings like they did in Clinton’s administration when they ran out of money?
11 months ago
“The House passed a strong bill. It has great savings in it.”
I was just reading a story this morning, that claimed the government spent some 6 trillion dollars on the post 9/11 wars.
Congress hasn’t been about savings, it has been about spending on guns or butter.
11 months ago
The House did not pass a budget. The house has not even proposed a budget. Biden sent his proposed budget to both chambers 4 months ago.
11 months ago
They’re planning on tantrums to carry the day.
11 months ago
Guns AND butter!
Guns AND butter!!!
11 months ago
Cue the sob stories about the national parks being closed and the poor kids who can’t get into museums in DC.
Just send everyone an app on their phone to print their own funny money, or for the oldsters, their own HP printers. Or Paul Krugman can go door-to-door handing out ‘trillion dollar coins’.
Rules from a game invented ` 100 years ago:
“The Bank collects all taxes, fines, loans and interest, and the price of all properties which it sells and auctions. The Bank “never goes broke.” If the Bank runs out of money, the Banker may issue as much as needed by writing on any ordinary paper.”
11 months ago
The ‘policy-wonk staffers’ in DC also stole this part for the CARES ACT, peon version –
Each player is given $1500 divided as follows:
2 $500’s, 2 $100’s, 2 $50’s, 6 $20’s, 5 $10’s, 5 $5’s, and 5 $1’s.
All remaining money and other equipment go to the Bank.
11 months ago
Last time this happened, I was working as a military contractor. All the soldiers got sent home without pay, and we continued on like nothing happened. It was embarrassing.
So the soldiers will most likely get boned again. Is that a sob story?
11 months ago
Did any take their AR15 and 9mm home with them?
10 months ago
AR 15’s are an “assault style” rifle, which are not to be confused with the M16, that soldiers use, which is an actual assault rifle.
10 months ago
Thanks for the correction Ron. I was just kidding. I don’t believe they could take their Beretta 92FS or select fire M16 or M4 home. I would have preferred an M14 as .22s are pretty much for plinking – except for the .220 Swift and the .22-250.
10 months ago
years ago when it happened to me we got a short vacation and received back pay anyway since “it wasn’t their fault” they told us
11 months ago
So you’re saying that stocks can rally every day from now until August on hopes of a debt ceiling resolution? Hooray! I may not be able to do anything about the political gridlock in this country, but I can certainly profit from it.
11 months ago
There is no spoon.
11 months ago
KlownWorld, where somehow they are given $6 Trillion+ a year to spend.
11 months ago
Money is a purely abstract thing. It’s only scarce if we want it to be.
11 months ago
Unfortunately labor and food are not abstract.
11 months ago
My understanding (please do correct me if I’m wrong as it is hard to read thru the vitriol spewing from both sides) that the big issue is that the white house wants to raise the debt ceiling with no strings attached relative to adding fiscal responsibility to the plan and looking for cost savings. If this is true and the wanted to paint the republicans into a corner … they could come up with a serious list of cost cuts that they are OK with and then, instead of fiscal responsibility vs insanity … it would be our cuts vs your cuts.
11 months ago
To call it “Kabuki Theatre” is an insult to Kabuki’s.
11 months ago
Republicans want the spending cuts, let them specify which ones. They won’t, and Dems won’t, because any proposed cut is used against you in the next election.
11 months ago
The Democrats want to be able to spend whatever amount of money they feel like spending.
The Republicans don’t have a clue as to exactly what they want.
11 months ago
This whole show isn’t even popcorn worthy.
11 months ago
We have all seen this before.
Sequels are never as good as the original.
11 months ago
Thank you Bob Elliott for mentioning prioritization. They can kick the can quite a bit further.
The REAL story is Yellen will need to restock Treasury cash position once debt situation resolved. Restock will be to the tune of ~ $1trillion in (high yield) treasury bills. And with banks trying to keep demand deposits with low yield? Very telling that Yellen yesterday told large bank CEOs to expect more mergers (under duress … as more small / medium banks get flushed). Federal Reserve’s weekly balance sheet update yesterday revealed Bank Term Funding Program* continues to grow.
*on loan shark terms … growing usage reveals stress still in the system … will only worsen (big time) when Yellen floods the market with t-bills.
11 months ago
The real X date was when the Roman Empire finally collapsed.
11 months ago
The American people are play toys for the politicians.
11 months ago
More like sex toys.
11 months ago
Ew. I don’t want to go in there…