The latest trade report will give Trump something more to howl about. 
On February 5, the Census Department issued a report on the International Trade in Goods and Services for December 2024.
Exports, Imports, and Balance
- December exports were $266.5 billion, $7.1 billion less than November exports.
- December imports were $364.9 billion, $12.4 billion more than November imports.
- The December increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $18.9 billion to $123.0 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.6 billion to $24.5 billion.
- For 2024, the goods and services deficit increased $133.5 billion, or 17.0 percent, from 2023.
- Exports increased $119.8 billion or 3.9 percent. Imports increased $253.3 billion or 6.6 percent.
Real Goods in 2017 Dollars – Census Basis
- The real (inflation-adjusted) goods deficit increased $14.9 billion, or 15.4 percent, to $111.9 billion in December, compared to a 17.3 percent increase in the nominal deficit.
- Real exports of goods decreased $5.4 billion, or 3.7 percent, to $141.9 billion, compared to a 3.8 percent decrease in nominal exports.
- Real imports of goods increased $9.5 billion, or 3.9 percent, to $253.8 billion, compared to a 4.0 percent increase in nominal imports.
Annual Goods and Services Balance of Trade
Two Important Points
- Biden kept intact all of Trump’s tariffs and added more
- Trade Wars are Good and Easy to Win
I am sure glad we proved point number two. Have we declared victory yet?
Related Posts
February 5, 2025: ISM Services Weakens, Respondents Show Tariff Concerns
March 2, 2018: Trump Tweets “Trade Wars are Good and Easy to Win”
October 7, 2020: 3,500 Corporations So Fed Up With Trump’s Tariffs They Sue the US
February 9, 2022: Trump’s “Historical Trade Deal” With China Final Results Are a Big Zero
I will have updated goods balance of trade data by county coming up soon.
This is why Trump needs to limit imports. If a country accepts 1 million of US goods then we only accept 1 million of goods from that country then we cut off ALL imports.
Unrealistic and very inflationary
Besides high imports are a symptom of the problem not the problem
Whatever. I’m running a huge trade deficit with Safeway. I keep buying stuff from them, but they NEVER buy goods from me. Unfair!
So, the trade deficit is getting bigger. Isn’t that why you oppose all tariffs, to increase the trade deficit even more?
Inelastic products might rise. As for the rest tariffs will be absorbed by the importers. They need our dollars and overcapacity will force them to cut prices. A strong dollar will make other currencies cheaper. In the last 4 years Biden added 1.6 million gov jobs. Trump will puke them. During Trump first administration he cut 600K gov jobs. It was a fake economy, while piling debt. Within 2 years: gov: down. Highly paid workers will consume more and pay more taxes. Import will plunge. Change in inventory will rise and investment in residential RE will rise.
Time to think about what is going on as Trump administration plows ahead with Tariff and resourcing jobs back to US land.
Just watched Scott Bessent interview with Kudlow. It is informative as he brings up his view as 3,3,3 policy targets.
3% GDP growth, 3% Fiscal Deficits, 3 million barrels oil.
Globalism as it has been, is a has been. US economy will be concentrating on itself.
No longer will US carry everyone else with consumption by Debt expansion but is to be focused on getting real wage growth to put money back into pockets of Americans.
Real wage growth will come from creating real jobs on US soil.
Many countries around this globe still have economies based upon mercantilist export based growth. As US turns back to a Monroe Doctrine foreign policy it will be concentrating upon its Hemisphere. If any one has listened Marco Rubio is doing the deals and he has as a Cuban ancestry the credentials to talk with South of Border Countries.
The rest of World will be doing some choking on their excess industrial base as the primary consumer of globalist output says we are going to buy from main street USA.
The international supply chain just in time delivery system failed miserably under the test stress run called Covid. Bessent points this out in interview. It is important to understand just how intrinsic this is to what is being put in place right now.
Globalism is unwinding and mercantilist Nations will be forced to find a different course to take so that their own GDP’s do not all end up in the outhouse.
Trade Deficits are getting addressed. That is being targeted with Tariff policy initially.
It appears either rest of World will go full on predatory and BRICS will eat each other or they will start building their own domestic consumer and self sustaining growth.
This chain of events will bring down inflation as supply builds from ongoing production.
As inflation comes down so will interest rates.
That becomes self reinforcing Growth.
Looking on the bright side, the rest of the world is willing to trade more of their “stuff” than ever for our Monopoly money.
And they’ll be trading that Monopoly money for land.
If you don’t make something, then put tariffs on it, the trade deficit increases. Elementary Watson.
Tariffs don’t make someone wake up in the morning and think: Hey I can get rich on this. That’s 19th century thinking, which might still be alive in China.
Today, you can get rich shuffling money around, or riding the property bubble.
Nice graph. What / who started the ball rolling the late 80s/early 90s?
“New World Order” guy.
“Message: I Care” guy
and on to all of the successor stooges, until now.
How Trump could pave the way for China in Latin AmericaHow Trump’s foreign policy is opening doors for China in Latin America – Los Angeles Times (archive.ph)
And we finally have a president with the balls to do something about it.
He did “something” about the trade deficit in his first presidency; tariffs. And Biden continued them. Eight years of this already. How’s it going so far?
Everyone here seems to have forgotten he was president from 2016-2020, that’s how “effective” he was that people already forgot all about it.
His first presidency was a disaster. Worst economic record of any President in terms of growth and employment during his 4 year term.
But I’m willing to let him try his policies again (because there’s nothing I can do about them anyway). Maybe they will work this time. And if they don’t, then perhaps we will learn from it.
People lived through Trump 1.0 and Biden/Harris. Then they chose in 2024.
Technically I chose, but believe whatever you need to.
Did Trump implement a 10% across the board tariff on China? Far from it. He placed tariffs on solar panels, washing machines, steel & aluminum. 10% on everything is a totally different ballgame.
In general, what Trump has done in just two weeks is more than what he accomplished in 4 years in his first term. With that said, cutting into the massive trade deficit with China et al will take time & you know this.
Let’s check back in to review FY Q2 results shall we?
Absolutely. I am sitting back and watching the show. Let’s see how it all works out.
“In general, what Trump has done in just two weeks is more than what he accomplished in 4 years in his first term.”
Could you please list exactly what tariffs Trump has implemented in his first two weeks other than 10% on China.
I’m speaking “in general” which goes well beyond tariffs. And then I followed that up that the tariffs will take time to change buying habits, good or bad. Inflation isn’t going to shoot up all of a sudden either.
In addition, the 10% tariff is a one-time hit which will be blunted by a likely near-term rise in the dollar vs the yuan. And some importers & exporters will adjust their profit margins to blunt the tariffs as well. But again, all of this is stuff you already know “MAY” come to pass.
What Trumps has done and or set in motion in his first two weeks is staggering.
Another golden record deficit incoming!
Lions and tigers and bears, oh my! The CCP is the largest link in the labor arbitrage chain. CCP has ensured artificial cost of capital for decades now. The Chinese economy is grossly tilted to production over consumption. Increasing consumption would benefit the Chinese populace. Too much benefit and CCP loses control. Labor arb is not limited to China. Mexican labor is cheaper than in China. All the while, US corporations are minting coin for years, always with the dream that they can also sell into a vast, nearly unlimited market in China. The CCP has put up all sorts of barriers to this, the dream is becoming nightmare. 3 aircraft carriers later … Free markets are only so free. The behavioral econ and psyops peeps follow the same lines. USAID, beyond an agency slush fund. The American populace is now one of the unhealthiest of all developed economies. Less consumption and more production here is essential. Yes, let’s stick with the status quo into slow death and decline. Complex situations on vast scale do not necessarily react to a butterfly’s wings. Outcomes are never guaranteed. But that’s where human being diverges strongly from mathematical rationalism.
Tariffs and Trade Wars are a great experiment. As I keep saying, let’s see how it all works out. So far we have “some” evidence from Trump’s first term, and Biden’s continuation of Trump policies. And now Trump is escalating those tariff policies in his second term. Soon, we will have 10 years of “evidence” of how well these policies are working.
According to Trump, tariffs will do the following:
Reduce our trade deficit.
Bring back American jobs from elsewhere.
Raise so much revenue that it will: allow us to eliminate income taxes, eliminate our deficit, pay down our debt, and make us rich.
Increase US production of things that we buy inexpensively from elsewhere. Because America does not need “anything from Canada” or anywhere else presumably. We have all the oil, gas, electricity, uranium, rare earths, steel, lumber, electronics, computer chips, etc. that we need. And tariffs will spur domestic US production of all these things.
Make the rest of the world “respect” America again for the economic powerhouse it is. We will not let everyone “take advantage” of the US any longer.
Some will say that the recent increase in the trade deficit is merely US importers scrambling to bring in as much as possible now, in order to avoid paying Trump’s threatened tariffs on those products in the future. Others will say that can’t be true, because Trump claims it’s the foreign country that pays the tariffs, not the US importer. So there is no reason for US importers to try to avoid the tariffs.
I say: let the evidence continue to roll in.
What a great show!
I am wondering if Canada will finally build the pipeline from Alberta to eastern Canada but somehow I don’t think it will get done soon. They think its a good idea except Quebec and no one wants to pay for it. Pierre Poilievere wants to start by breaking down the trade barriers between the provinces which apparently are considerable. In the meantime most people up there see it as common sense to cooperate with the US in stopping the flow of immigrants and fentanyl into Canada. Maybe common sense is breaking out up there too although Mark Carney and Freeland want to double down of woke, their prospects look slim but you never know.
I doubt if Quebec will allow another pipeline to be built through their province. Canada will have to focus on more pipelines to the west coast. Regardless, it will take a decade for any new pipelines to be completed. So in the meantime, both Canada and the US are stuck. We need their oil, and they have no good options to sell much of it to anyone else.
I wish Poilievere well in getting pipelines built and breaking down provincial trade barriers. But I wouldn’t hold my breath while waiting.
“In the meantime most people up there see it as common sense to cooperate with the US in stopping the flow of immigrants and fentanyl into Canada.”
Lol! That’s hilarious! Most Canadians are pissed at us Americans for even suggesting that they are bad trade partners, who send us drugs and immigrants. You are completely out of touch with reality, or you think if you keep saying it, someone here might believe it.
US Customs and Immigration say that less than 1% of fentanyl and immigrants come to the US from Canada. History says that we send them far more drugs than they ever send us; not to mention all the illegal guns we send them.
Trump was only using fentanyl as an excuse to declare an emergency so he could break his “best ever” trade deal.
We have been feeling up different parts of the elephant. I have been looking at what the politicians have been saying and after you get past the Team Canada bit I see that they acknowledge that something has to be done by Canadians themselves to secure their border against immigration and drugs. There is also evidence that they are actually cooperating now with the US in doing so but to each his own interpretation. You still think that Canada has the sacred right to send illegals and fentanyl across our border at will. Why I have no idea.
Unfortunately, your head is up the elephant’s ass. Which is why you can’t see what’s going on in Canada.
As to what Canadian politician are saying, they all seem pissed off as well. They were all ready to take US alcohol off the shelves of the provincial liquor stores, stop including US companies in contracts, cutting off electricity, etc.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/toronto/politics/queens-park/article/unjustified-unfair-and-frankly-illegal-doug-ford-blasts-trumps-tariffs/
No reason to get vulgar PapaDave. I just gave my opinion You still didn’t answer why you think Canada should have the right to send illegals and fentanyl across our border without repercussions.
Lol! I have never said that any “country” has the right to send illegals and fentanyl across any border. So go f*ck that elephant Doug.
I have merely stated that the amount of those things crossing into the US from Canada is less than one percent of the problem. It is also far less than all the drugs and guns that flow the other way.
What right does the US have to do far worse to Canada Doug?
It’s all a contrived “emergency” by Trump so he can break his “best ever” trade deal with a country that was honoring the terms of the deal.
Anyone who thinks that it is about fentanyl and illegals is a moron.
Which is why Canadians are rightly pissed off at us.
“Ontario Premier Doug Ford says new import tariffs imposed on Canada by the United States are “unjustified, unfair, and frankly illegal.”
Hey, Doug, tell us something that we don’t already know. Tariffs imposed on the exporting country are never popular are they?
Fortunately for Doug & the rest of Canada, cooler heads have prevailed for now. Let’s see what happens in early March.
Let the hysteria flow through you!
You are off, if you think it takes a decade to build a pipeline whose course has already been decided. The main obstacle is the clown WEF sycophant.
It’s the cost. It will very expensive to build but the main problem is that it will be very costly to operate but it is doable. If they could have an export terminal at the end that could help defray the operating costs. The area the pipeline would go through is pristine wilderness. When I was younger I spend many summers canoeing though it. If you need the pipeline then fine but please keep it as discrete as possible.
The cost can be partially defrayed by cancelling DEI programs, and subsidy for CBC agitprop put in the place by the WEF clown.
It took Canada 12 years to complete the TMX pipeline. And it wasn’t a new pipeline. It was an addition and expansion of an already existing pipeline. A brand new pipeline in Canada would take longer.
The evidence is the USA between 1776 and 1913. No trade deficits, a steadily rising economy, tariffs raised enough money that there were no income taxes, every deficit caused by war (i.e, Revolutionary war, War of 1812, and Civil war) was paid back in under 8 years. Meanwhile, USA did become the richest country in the world.
Mish,
You did leave out one important point regarding December imports that I have no doubt you’re aware of. Companies were front loading imports ahead of Trump’s tariffs. January will probably be more of the same since it was also pre-tariffs. I trust we will see a collapse in imports for February.
Why should US importers do that? Trump says that it’s the foreign country that pays the tariffs; not the US importer.
I have no doubt you are well aware of who really pays the tariff and why they would do that.
Nonsense! Magical Pixies will pay it!
It won’t be getting better anytime soon, the USD is at all time highs making foreign products cheaper. CNBC was reporting that SHEIN/TEMU have been told a 30% tax is required for their products to the US.
“It’s tariff turtles all the way down and inflation all the way up!”