Deere flags a bigger hit from tariffs in 2026 than 2025.
Deere Blames Tariffs for Weak Profit
Reuters reports Tractor Maker Deere Flags Higher 2026 Tariff Hit, Weak Profit
Deere & Co (DE), flagged a bigger hit from tariffs in 2026 and forecast its annual profit below estimates on the back of weaker margins on large tractors, sending the farm-equipment maker’s shares down 5%.
CEO John May said ongoing margin pressures from tariffs would continue to weigh on its large farm equipment unit, although he expects to benefit from cost cuts and demand in its forestry and small agriculture markets.
The company expects a pre-tax tariff hit of around $1.2 billion in fiscal 2026, compared with nearly $600 million in 2025.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs have impacted companies across sectors, especially manufacturing and industrial firms that rely on imported raw materials.
Deere had also been considering production shifts, higher pricing and widening its portfolio of used equipment as it looked to offset weak demand.
CFRA Research analyst Jonathan Sakraida said he does not expect Deere to recover until fiscal 2027, adding that the company struggled to offset tariff impacts.
Damn – Wait Till 2027?!
Who couldda possibly thought Trump’s 2025 industrial miracle would have been delayed first to 2026 and now to 2027?
And weren’t other countries supposed to pay these tariffs?
Damn, my forecasts were that Deere would be making more stuff here and exports would be soaring by now.
Wait! Let’s check to see if I recall my forecasts properly.
Trump Adopts Chicago Cubs’ Perpetual Message, “Wait Till Next Year”
Please recall my October 5, 2025 post Trump Adopts Chicago Cubs’ Perpetual Message, “Wait Till Next Year”
“One Big Beautiful Bill” did not resonate. Trump opts for “Wait Till 2026”.
Team Trump Hones New Message
Reality has set in. Trump’s policies have not and will not succeed in 2025. So, it’s Wait Till Next Year.
The Wall Street Journal reports Trump’s Team Hones Message on Economy: Just Wait Until 2026
But “Wait Till 2026” is a fundamental mistake. When 2026 is bad, the message will have to change.
The beauty of a more Cub-esque “Wait Till Next Year” is the slogan never has to change.
Hmmm. Here is it 2025 and we are already discussing 2027.
How many thought that?
Related Posts
February 11, 2025: Trump’s Steel Tariffs Now Will Work as Good as the First Time
Q: How’s that? A: Very poorly.
March 13, 2025: The Amazing “Success” of Trump’s 2018 Aluminum Tariffs in One Picture
I hope you can take a bit of headline sarcasm because the true story follows.
September 6, 2025: Trump’s Aluminum Tariffs Seriously Backfire Already
Tariffs did not and will not bring production back to the US.
October 2, 2025: Trump Seeks a $10 to $14 Billion Farmer Bailout
Tariffs backfired on US agricultural exports.
Mish you forgot to mention the most important part of the story. All of this knowledge is commonly available and shows poor corporate planning. A small portion of investor windfall could have been used to retain competitiveness and avoid tariffs. Tariffs are simply Americans rebate for poor corporate governance. I am an American believing in Americans first. Keep the Tariffs coming.
According to a July 2024 report, John Deere has spent over $43 billion on stock buybacks and dividends over the past 20 years
Deere is reported to have bought back more than 3% of its own stock in both 2022 and 2023 and repurchased a whopping 5.6% of its own shares in FY 2024 (ending this October). The pace has slowed in 2025; It is reported that Deere bought back over 1 billion dollars of shares in the first 3 quarters.
Deere saw dividend hikes of
2023: +22.5%
2022: +14.1%
·2021: +38.2%
Trump excels in breaking things. Gold ballrooms at shareholders and taxpayers expense? Yes… Sensible policy that does not result in the destruction of important export markets? NO, Trump destroys long term Trading partnerships and markets instead and subsidizes the losses with more debt
Taking 747’s from foreign nations for his personal gain? Why yes, that’s Trump!
Subsidizing his farm minions after destroying their overseas markets?
Of course! More debt!
It’s back to work for this farmer, and no, I’ll never take a subsidy from any of you!
If I followed the Trump farming cult into failure after seeing Trumps first terms nightmare of policy failures? I would not deserve help.
I have “PDS.”
Politician Derangement Syndrome!
Definition of Politician: “LIAR.”
It is called the “WUTT” trade deal.
WAIT until TWENTY-TWENTY-SIX”
WUTT???
Big Beautiful Tariffs.
BBT WUTT????
Tariffs on inputs like aluminum, steel and copper that must be imported only makes our manufacturers less competitive. It is simply stupid policy.
Also stupid are folks like Anonymous who cheers the demise of US manufacturers like Deere and would prefer if US manufacturers did not make profits. Without profits there will be no US manufacturing companies left and no manufacturing jobs.
Deere is no longer a person, it is an entity. Wall Street took a hit. Real people have already suffered the consequences of Deere’s choice of manufacture location. It looks like tariffs are working as intended. Good Job, keep it up.
Was the intent to kill US industry?
If so, yes, it’s working as designed.
US Industry is being killed off and has been killed off for years. You can’t blame tariffs for past performance. Killing US industry is a feature not an anomaly.
So are we going to continue to complain about Trump or get to work on impeaching him?
Trump does not control Boardroom Policy
Haha Checks in the mail. With the money to pay for the wall
Chinese tractors are taking over the world too. Trump is a Chinese agent.
Mish, it looks like Stephen A. Smith disagrees with you vehemently about those Six Patriotic Dems who enjoy using the military as pawns.
And I agree that it’s so obvious that this type of rhetoric has nothing to do with an Islamist brought here by Biden after the disastrous Afghan withdrawal & then given asylum by TACO, who then drives from Seattle to DC kill National Guard troops. Yes, the father of the young lady who volunteered to work this week says she’s been mortally wounded & won’t recover.
Looks like Bondi is rightfully tee’ing up the death penalty for this Allah Akbar terrorist. I enjoy the “You crossed a Damn Line!” callout by Stepen A, a level-headed Democrat.
“WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU DOING? HOW DARE YOU?” – Stephen A. Smith GOES OFF in SCREAMING Rant Against Mark Kelly and Democrats’ Calls for Military Sedition: “You Crossed the Damn Line!” (MUST SEE VIDEO)
Off topic. Who cares what Smith has to say anyway?
A gazillion more people than you and me.
How’s that you TDS feen.
TDS makes trump trash believe they’re patriots
Sad and funny at the same time
Trash! OMG, you’ve ruined my TG.
Heel spurs cowardice makes him think they’ve done something wrong. lol
But that gazillion AIN’t HERE! Smith is blowhard.
Stephen A reached millions over the Internet, you dolt.
To make a slight modification to a famous quote:
If fifty million people
saybelieve a foolish thing, it is still a foolish thing.—Anatole France
Smith is a loud mouth sports bs artist that never served. He is totally wrong in his assessment. Compared to the Senators, Smith is a useless, oxygen wasting POS.
Yeah I did serve 1972-1975 US Army.
Damn. Not the famous political and economic analyst Stephen A. Smith? You must be wrong then Mish, and the democrats that quoted the law too. I mean, if stephen A. Smith says so….
Actually, it’s just great to see a Dem like Stephen A calling out these idiots for their “crossing the damn line”. And he connects with millions of people, unlike you and me.
Great, and I can find Republicans who think I am right, Ron and Rand Paul.
What’s that prove?
Nothing.
The fact remains, those 6 said people should not obey illegal orders.
And that is perfect advice.
Heck, Trump repeated it. Should he be under investigation?
“And that is perfect advice” that led to two NG troops being shot, one of which has died. Keep making excuses. Again, 95% of the politically motivated violence is coming from the left, because they’re the ones with the broader, deeper, more inflammatory anti-American rhetoric.
I personally agree with you that the overwhelming majority recently comes from the left. I couldn’t disagree more about who’s at fault for that girl dying. they never should have been there.
if troops of any branch are r deployed without the ability to kill people and break things, they shouldn’t be deployed.
Unless war is declared by Congress troops should never leave America’s borders. Let other countries handle their own problems.
would it be perfect advice for the SEC to come out and publicly warn you personally against distributing insider trade information on your site? technically they wouldn’t be doing anything wrong and it would be perfectly legal for them to do that, correct?
BTW, the Afghani’s asylum was approved by the orange dotard.
I guess you can’t read. I included that in my post above.
It is amazing how rapid one’s intelligence declines about affiliating with taco or simply being around him.
yes, but everything is relative. when you’re starting off from a higher base you have farther to fall and the rate at what you fall could be faster. when you’re starting off at a much much lower base like typical democrats, you can only fall so much farther.
and my $2000 tariff check?
It’s in the mail. Check the box regularly.
Today tariffs. Tomorrow expensive electricity. The day after tomorrow expensive natural gas. Long live to re industrialization.
We already have expensive electric in CA. And natural gas is being banned everywhere here. Many cities have passed laws mandating only electric appliance service in new or updated homes.
Probably raw food enthusiasts.
My all electric stove seems to be perfectly capable of turning my raw food to ash.
Your supposed to use a pan for the food! This stops it being burned to an ash.
Well I have been posting the Trump countdown clock periodically because that’s the date things will start to turn around, AFTER the clown leaves office.
Trump’s presidency ends in 1150 days assuming he doesn’t die or becomes incapacitated before then or gets impeached.
You may as well jump to January 20, 2029 when the new president is sworn in Mish by then things will be really screwed up.
Completely agree. The worst though is that it becomes more and more plausible that a woke hard left president will be elected, as people will have immensely suffer under the Clown. This would be a total catastrophe and the official demise of the “free” American empire.
Nope.
Yes , what a clown… Its hard to believe people voted for Trump after 4 glorious years of Biden and Kamala’s excellent leadership.
Kamala was the ticket to success; How could people not see that, such a leader
so intelligent, I am sure Gavin will save the day in 2029
What is more statesman-like than foresight !?
These are the chickens coming home to roost for the consumer first policies of the past 40-50 years, and along with it the technology that can be repurposed to military use. Too much consumer manufacturing has been sent overseas. Other countries built factories. The US shuttered factories. National security requires products to be designed and built within the US.
There was a Star Trek episode where the people of planet A were sending their products to planet B, in exchange for a “necessary” medicine that was fake in the first place.
Trading paper money for goods was the favorite pet theory of academics for decades. The theory was created in their minds as a result of guaranteed salaries.
If you want to change the theory and the mindset, you have to make all universities ordinary private businesses and all professors freelancers.
Factory work was sent overseas because it was too expensive to perform here in the USA! What is difficult to understand about this?
How did it become too expensive?
Everyone here wants ‘mo money!
“Factory work was sent overseas because” of the the unlimited greed of American corporations and ultra wealthy capitalists.
Obviously you don’t understand, maybe now you will think about it.
It’s both ends. Investors always want greater returns, more profits while workers/unions contend if management/investors are making more money, then they want more money also.
Finally someone who is awake, and not brain washed by MSNBC
It is hard to sell farm equipment when so many family farms are going under and filing bankruptcy and liquidating everything.
So when are you going to rub it in to your farmer coffee group re: voting Trump? I assume most will move away after they sell their farms.
Never!
These are good people and that is not my style.
Instead he’s already admitted he plans to buy up their farms on the cheap and make a huge profit.
I see nothing wrong with buying failing farms that have been depleted and abused by the current owners agricultural practices at appropriate market driven failure prices.
At least I am providing a buyer for the land, arresting its deterioration, providing significant gains in species diversity while restoring postage stamps of wildlife habitat.. What solution do you offer? Should I let the community banks sit on the foreclosed land and let it grow weeds that invade neighboring farms and drive up their costs?
By rebuilding the depleted soils and growing multiple higher margin crops I have made a decent profit. It is a big investment in creative agriculture, creative people and a huge risk. Scaling the operation and expanding into new markets with higher transportation costs and spoilage risks is a significant challenge.
Eventually the land may be sold, but that is not my primary goal. My primary goal is to create a model for supplying nutritionally superior, higher margin crops at slightly lower prices.
All while paying higher than current market wages and quietly stabilizing a failing community. The biggest difficulty is in building the scale of the operation without becoming a target of the Trumpers that only think in terms of corn and soy yields.
I have no problem with success!
Trump is going to toss John Deere tractors out of helicopters.
“As God is my witness, I thought tractors could fly. “
Helicopter subsidies as the reward for failure. Welfare for his minions!
Trump is rewarding failure by creating more debt after personally destroying their foreign markets. Stupid arrogance on Trumps part while his minions suck on his teats.
Me? I’m not a Republican any more and I’m surely not a Democrat. I’m just a creative and curious farmer walking a razor blade of higher margin crops.
Not an adventure for the faint of heart or financially naive!
Really, I noticed my LL bean gear; now made in overseas sweat shop’s sell’s
at 50% less than it did when made in the USA………. NOT
Try Carhartt, it may not be the label you want, but it’s tough and lasts.
I do not know where it is made and don’t care. It’s better quality at a better price.
Global completion drives innovation. Protection drives mediocrity…
Trumps tariffs protect and encourage failure.
The farmers in the US are caught between supplier and equipment manufacturer monopolies and grain purchasing cartels
Soon we will be left with ony “farmers” like Bessent
I’m not gonna cry for big Green
Gay farmers?
Most likely 1.4% of farmers identify as gay just like the rest of the population of the US. 4.4% probably are bisexual as is 4.4% of general population.
Just the facts Ma’am.
“Do you see a real light at the end of the tunnel there, they may allow soybeans again?” Raddetz asked.
Bessent replied, “Martha, in case you don’t know it, I’m actually a soybean farmer, so I have felt this pain, too.”
Bessent’s government financial disclosure shows that he owns soybean and corn farmland in North Dakota that has an estimated worth of between $5 million and $25 million.
On that disclosure, Bessent said the farmland generates between $100,000 and $1 million in rental income for him annually.
John Deere. Like other equipment Mfg., do not reduce the cost of equipment when building outside of USA, and should not be able to resell at Gross Profit levels
attained once made outside of country; so If everyone would quit supporting
this and buy from other Mfg outside of USA we could stop their plunder on
Stock options and wall street expectations
I doubt you have ever stepped foot in a real silo, so you might as well live in your news silo. Meanwhile, I get to go outside in the wind and snow to ensure a diverse food supply. Lots of exercise and a big ass smile on my face as I greet my employees.