Despite Plunging Lumber, the Cost of Building a Home Remains Stubbornly High

Building Materials Prices Increase in July as Concrete Surges

The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) reports Building Materials Prices Increase in July as Concrete Surges

The prices of building materials rose 0.4% in July (not seasonally adjusted) even as softwood lumber prices increased 2.3%, according to the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report. Prices have surged 35.7% since January 2020, although 80% of the increase has occurred since January 2021. The PPI for goods inputs to residential construction, including energy, decreased 1.2% as the prices of #2 diesel and unleaded gasoline fell 16.6% and 16.7%, respectively.

The price index of services inputs to residential construction was driven 1.4% lower in July—the third consecutive monthly decline—by a 3.8% decrease in the building materials retail index. The services PPI is 3.0% higher than it was 12 months prior and 34.9% higher than its pre-pandemic level.

The PPI for ready-mix concrete (RMC) gained 2.5% in July and has increased in 17 of the last 18 months. The latest increase is the largest since prices climbed 3.7% in March 2006. The index has climbed 6.8%, year-to-date, the largest YTD July increase in the series’ 34-year history.

Concrete Products

The PPI for ready-mix concrete (RMC) gained 2.5% in July and has increased in 17 of the last 18 months. The latest increase is the largest since prices climbed 3.7% in March 2006. The index has climbed 6.8%, year-to-date, the largest YTD July increase in the series’ 34-year history.

Lumber

Note, those represent builder materials, different from raw lumber futures down to 598 from a peak of 1686.

The PPI for softwood lumber (seasonally adjusted) saw a modest increase (+2.3%) in July. Prices have fallen 28.2% year-to-date, although the extent to which the decrease has reached home builders and remodelers is unclear.

Gypsum Materials 

The PPI for gypsum products held steady in July after increasing 0.1% in June and 7.1% in May. and has soared 22.6% over the past year. After a quiet 2020, the price of gypsum products climbed 23.0% in 2021 and is up 7.6% through the first half of 2022.

Steel Mill Products 

Steel mill products prices decreased 3.7% in June following a 1.7% decline in June. over the two prior months. Although the index has fallen 10.1% since reaching its all-time high in December 2021, it is nearly twice the January 2021 level.

Paint 

The PPI for exterior and interior architectural coatings (i.e., paint) increased 1.0% and 0.5%, respectively, in July. The PPI for paint has not declined since January 2021—the prices of exterior and interior paint have risen 50.7% and 33.8%, respectively, in the months since.

Freight Transportation 

Not only have freight costs increased, but the prices of services to arrange freight logistics have climbed steeply as well. Over the course of 2021, the PPI for the arrangement of freight and cargo increased 95.1%. Although prices have fallen 8.8%, YTD, they remain 63.0% above pre-pandemic levels.

Other than concrete, gypsum, paint, steel, transportation, and perhaps lumber (depending on passthroughs and time of orders), inflation is under control.

NAHB Sentiment and Price Cuts

The above charts explain why builders have only cut prices by 5 percent despite huge declines in orders and buyer traffic. 

High rise construction, more dependent on concrete and steel may be having a rougher go of it.

For further discussion please see NAHB Sentiment Declines Eighth Consecutive Month Into Negative Territory

This post originated on MishTalk.Com.

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billybobjr
billybobjr
1 year ago
I agree with some below I do think cost that are tied to labor intensive type services and such are going to stay stubbornly high and continue to rise Labor has been exploited for a long time . Saw yesterday that Carnival is cancelling cruises because they can’t get the people to work the ships. There was a blog and people were complaining about how the last cruises were awful because of poor service . Many said they would not cruise again after recent experiences. This is happening through all businesses to some degree .
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
1 year ago
Reply to  billybobjr
“Labor has been exploited” is nonsense. Labor is mobile. It can always move, change jobs, etc. Ergo, the price of labor is competitively priced. That is NOT exploitation.
FYI, most cruise ships are NOT US registered/flagged. This enables hiring of foreign workers, and avoidance of many US regulations etc. They can’t get ‘people’ on Carnival, because PEOPLE DIE. Their health record is atrocious.
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
1 year ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
My previous comment PEOPLE DIE had to do with being petri dishes for covid.
You can see the vessel/company reports here: link to wwwn.cdc.gov
tomatohead
tomatohead
1 year ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
This is nonsense. People are terrified of germs because of the propaganda, and therefore any crowded venue triggers doubt in your mind. Its subconscious.
The workers are a totally different problem which has absolutely nothing to do with Covid, and I have no idea why you even brought it up. Yes workers are exploited, which is generally fine because its a social contract that the employee enters into. We know we are exploited as long as I feel I am compensated for it. That is the mobility and equilibrium you speak of.
Inflation is running rumpant because of completely inept leaders. Plain and simple. Now $12 an hour goes way beyond exploitation – it’s unsustainable. In theory these are “jobs for young people” or “unskilled”, and yes however in reality common people rely on these jobs for income.
The system has been perverted by free money. Now we see the consequences. The job openings is a crumbling of the foundation. And your twisted and fallacious lies about Covid have scared the money away from cruises, and movies, etc. I literally and figuratively spit on the CDC “stats” and decision-making and decision-makers. Thank you for making the world a worse place.
billybobjr
billybobjr
1 year ago
Reply to  tomatohead
Great response : couldn’t have said it better .
FooFooFed
FooFooFed
1 year ago
big question is how far out does the lumber yard make purchases of building materials?
if they place orders for lumber and the like 6months or greater then maybe todays prices reflect
the past not what’s happening today. Tariffs don’t help nor do shipping costs. If the Fed was
lender of last resort instead of spender of last resort I don’t think we would have most of these distortions.
but it seems that the goal is to….wait, what is the goal again? Oh yeah, goal is to lower the standard of living. lacy hunts Q2 read is superb…
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
1 year ago
Some hoping for a new normal are going to be for a rude awakening. Farmers know more than most about climate, weather, seasons and cycles. When they say there is no normal you know we’ve crossed the chasm.
Call_Me
Call_Me
1 year ago
In weather and climate, ‘normal’ is an average of extremes. The mean temperature isn’t what it is supposed to be all the time any more than the mean precipitation accumulation is what is supposed to occur at any given location. The Great Salt Lake is dwindling, possibly to join the other great pluvial lakes in being relegated to history – anthropogenic forcing or not, conditions change. There is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Meridianal Overturning Circulation (especially the Atlantic component for climate in the NE U.S.), and a myriad of other cogs in the machinery of the planet’s climate.
At least the farm Mr. Kemp manages has been around for almost 30 years (unknown how long he has been in that position), so he should know a thing or two about ‘normal’. /sarc
“I manage Mountain Meadows Farm for Dr. Amiel Cooper, a retired
pathologist from Boston. Amiel started the farm 19 years ago with eight
heifers and one bull. MMF is now a certified organic beef farm growing
375 finished beef all born and raised on our 1900 acre farm. We direct
market all of our beef to Wholefoods Markets from New York through
southern New England.”
Call_Me_Al
Christoball
Christoball
1 year ago
Reply to  Call_Me
Good points Al
Hunger stones record severe drought centuries ago. There is nothing new under the Sun.
KidHorn
KidHorn
1 year ago
Did they have a dry summer last year and the year before? If not, how can anyone claim the climate has changed?
vanderlyn
vanderlyn
1 year ago
you mean the same farmers that mono cropped and didn’t see the dust bowl………coming from a thousand miles away????? let’s face the music ladies, farmers are like everyone else including stock traders. a few wise ones, but mostly idiots.
RonJ
RonJ
1 year ago
“Farmers know more than most about climate, weather, seasons and cycles.
When they say there is no normal you know we’ve crossed the chasm.”
There never has been a normal. We don’t have El Nino every year, or La Nina every year. Ever since records have been kept in California, they show that the rainfall has varied wildly from year to year. This year there has been a lot of summer monsoonal moisture in the southwest. Las Vegas has had a couple of flooding downpours. There is no normal for farmers from one year to the next.
JackWebb
JackWebb
1 year ago
As soon as they quoted that fraudulent “climate scientist Michael Mann” I laughed.
worleyeoe
worleyeoe
1 year ago
Lumber futures bottomed on 8/4 @ $479 / 1000 bf. In 5 short days, they shot up to $600.
Housing is all over the place. I fully expect 30YFRM to breach 5% by the end of the month.
Once this happens, housing WILL stabilize. The June YoY price increase was 17.3%.
For the most part, housing is still chugging along despite predictions otherwise.
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  worleyeoe
There are a lot of “doom and gloomers” who seem to “always” be predicting a housing crash or an economic crash. Yet we seem to keep muddling along, don’t we?
I realize that crashes do happen on occasion. But rather than obsessing and worrying about a crash, and always hiding out in cash, I prefer to look for the investment opportunities that arise in every situation.
KidHorn
KidHorn
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave
How are all those energy investments of yours doing now? Must have been a brutal last few weeks.
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  KidHorn
They are doing great thanks!
My core position is up over 200% in less than 2 years. I expect another 200% over the next 2 or 3 years.
And I love the volatility! Since I day trade and swing trade 25% of my portfolio, I am making a killing on the big price swings. I bought and sold FANG over a hundred times in the last week or so. Just took a break from trading to get a coffee and check the blog.
How are your investments doing?
RonJ
RonJ
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave
How are they muddling along in Argentina these days? I read yesterday that they just raised the interest rate to 69%, with 71% inflation and are apparently stopping the printing of money. People in Panama aren’t too happy these days, either.
Mr. Klaus Schwab intends for us to own nothing and be happy doing so. Investment opportunities won’t mean much if they confiscate everyone’s assets as part of a socialist Great Reset.
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  RonJ
Why the f*ck should I care about Argentina? Stop wasting my time. Don’t you have anything constructive to do?
tomatohead
tomatohead
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave
It has become grossly unaffordable for new homebuyers. Yes chugging along for now. Let’s agree to revisit this comment thread in 8-12 months.
I was first time homebuyer making +$100k pretax. Sale price was $500k with 35% downpayment. Very average-ish all around. I bought my home in 2019. If I bought it now, my savings rate per paycheck would be 0%.
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  tomatohead
Cry me a river. The housing market has been tough to get into for 50 years. And that will continue for another 50 years. Yet millions like you have done it and millions more will.
Life is difficult and no one is going to make it easy for you. Stop whining.
Avery
Avery
1 year ago
Most everything gets to the supply house and job site via a diesel fueled conveyance.
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  Avery
Yes. Energy costs are hidden in the housing construction numbers. You can’t run a modern economy without a lot of energy.
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave
Define modern economy. With enough deflation a lot can change. Most of the price of energy is due to derivatives and speculators. We don’t have a financial regulation scheme that supports the real economy anymore. So speculators and investors ‘win’ until everyone loses.
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
How is that different for any other commodity? Modern economies include investors and speculators and regulators. And what are you going to do about it? Complain, or take advantage of the opportunities?
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
1 year ago
Maybe speculators make the market? If they were consistently wrong, they would be bankrupt. Consistently right, everyone would do it. It is all about risk, something most ‘investors’ don’t really understand.
SAKMAN
SAKMAN
1 year ago
More rate hikes please 1% at a time minimum.
worleyeoe
worleyeoe
1 year ago
Reply to  SAKMAN
Not going to happen. 50 basis in Sept then 25 in Oct with at least least a two month pause which could go to 6 before the fed decides to sell MBS or not.
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
1 year ago
Reply to  worleyeoe
Fine tuning or death by a thousand cuts.??
Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear
1 year ago
The chart that catches my attention the most is the price change in ready-made concrete. It’s pullback confirmed the end of the housing bubble. The housing market over the last several months certainly is behaving like a top is very close.
Dr_Novaxx
Dr_Novaxx
1 year ago
A house is more than just lumber — it’s also labor costs and all of the other peripherals such as plumbing. It’s hard to find labor & it appears from what I’ve seen is we have mostly illegal immigrants filling the gap, but I haven’t confirmed this.
I also purchased a 4″ PVC fitting recently & paid > $4.00 — it shouldn’t cost more than $1.00!
RunnerDan
RunnerDan
1 year ago
Reply to  Dr_Novaxx
Just wait until you look at conduit prices! WTF?!!!!
vanderlyn
vanderlyn
1 year ago
stagflation. slowing economy and raging inflation. FED is gonna jack rates up until 2023 at least.
prumbly
prumbly
1 year ago
Most of these cost increases directly reflect the increase in energy costs (thanks to the climate apocalypse lunatics and the frankly bizarre Russia sanctions). Concrete, steel and gypsum all require MASSIVE amounts of energy in their production, and you ain’t going to get that from windmills. Lumber requires very little energy for its production.
Food production is also hugely energy intensive, which is the main reason why food prices have been on a roll lately. Did you know it takes 31.5 KWh to produce 1 pound of beef? Your average wind turbine would be enough to produce about 30 pounds of beef per hour (1MWh). Average annual US consumption of beef per person is about 55 pounds, or 2 hours of wind turbine time. One turbine could therefore produce enough beef for about 4500 people. 330,000,000 people in the US, so you would need 70,000 wind turbines just to produce beef. Coincidentally, that’s also the number of wind turbines currently operating in the US. Yes, we have just enough wind turbines to entirely power beef production and nothing else. Gives you some idea just how truly pathetic renewable energy is compared to the might and majesty of fossil fuels.
JeffD
JeffD
1 year ago
Price gouging and inflation are the two components of price increases, and the gouging now dominates.
Dr_Novaxx
Dr_Novaxx
1 year ago
Reply to  JeffD
Jeff — If producers were able to gouge consumers now, when it hurts their business the most, why weren’t they doing it before?
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Lumber is 4% of the cost of a new home. Labor is 50%.
There is a shortage of skilled labour in the home building industry. Hence, labor costs will stay high. And so will house prices.
JackWebb
JackWebb
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave
Got any sources on that? I’d love to see a disaggregation of the costs embedded in a new house. I’d like to see the numbers for:

– Stick-built single-family detached

– Stick-built townhouse

– Apartment/multi-unit condo

– Prefab single family

– Mobile home

What share of new construction are each of those categories, and what are the percentages for building materials, fixtures, labor, transportation, and permits? Without a great deal of that information, it’s impossible to analyze the gross numbers or to even guess what impact lumber prices might have.

PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  JackWebb
This is what I found when I googled it. Canadian numbers but I suspect its the same here in the US
Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave
Seems to be the source.
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  Felix_Mish
Good find.
JackWebb
JackWebb
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave
Lumber material costs make up only about four per cent of a new home’s
price, according to the analysis. Labour accounted for 50 per cent of
new home costs, followed by mechanical, electrical, heating, cooling and
plumbing accounting for 22 per cent, and foundation work accounting for
five per cent of the cost.

How much of that 27% for mechanical, electric, etc. is labor and how much is materials? If these sources are going to play cost accountant, they should do it right, even if they are Canadians who take longer. LOL

PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  JackWebb
Your guess is as good as mine. Perhaps you can contact them to find out. That is more detail than I am interested in.
timot78
timot78
1 year ago
Reply to  JackWebb
US -based home building average cost breakdown: link to fixr.com
JackWebb
JackWebb
1 year ago
Reply to  timot78
Interesting, but it doesn’t separate labor from materials. Gives labor hourly rates, but that’s not enough info.
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
1 year ago
Reply to  JackWebb
Means is one of the go-tos for current construction costs. They closely track by region. Costs $$$ but a free trial is available
worleyeoe
worleyeoe
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave
That’s crazy. Two months prior to the quoted article, lumber futures hit $1,477 / 1000 bf. Maybe in Canada where just about every person working on a house is unionized would it be low single digits. When you consider ALL the lumber that goes into a house, that true cost is easily in excess of 10%.
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  worleyeoe
Whatever. Thats what I was able to find. Feel free to find a source for equivalent US numbers.
Regarding “Maybe in Canada where just about every person working on a house is unionized”
An assumption on your part?
31% of Canadian construction workers are unionized. So 69% are not unionized.
13.5% of US construction workers are unionized.
Christoball
Christoball
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave
There is no shortage of skilled labor in the home building industry. There is a shortage of skilled labor in the home building industry who will work for illegal alien wages.
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  Christoball
So what are you attempting to say?
Is it: thanks to companies taking advantage of illegal aliens and paying them slave wages, that is helping to keep the price of houses low?
There must not be enough illegal aliens then, because construction companies are still desperate for skilled workers. And house prices are still high.
That doesn’t seem to fit your “narrative”.
Christoball
Christoball
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave
It is the same in any industry; whether driving truck, working the oil fields, construction work, or computer coding. People will not work unless the pay is commensurate with high skill level. There is a lot of skimming in the housing industry: Banks, Loan officers, Planners, Architects and Designers, Permits, Building Fees, Park Fees, Sheriff Fees, School Fees, Real Estate Ladies , Inspectors etc………… The most skilled people in this sequence are the people who actually put the building together. Try and tell any of the other pigs at the trough to work for peanuts and see how many of them show up.
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  Christoball
“People will not work unless the pay is commensurate with high skill level.”
Agreed. Which helps explain the shortage of skilled labor and the high price for houses. Glad you figured it out.
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
1 year ago
Reply to  Christoball
You have a bias that no amount of education can fix. This is not to denigrate the skill and effort of the trades in construction. One reason there is an increasing cost for construction labor is a shortage of workers (both skilled and unskilled)–caused by people wanting ‘higher education’ in the belief they will have a higher living standard and greater social status by going to college.
Christoball
Christoball
1 year ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
Experience teaches more than education. Traditionally many people have wanted to work with their hands, work outdoors, create something etc. People seek higher wages and the handwriting on the wall says don’t make a career out of residential construction. I worked the trades for two decades, In the early 80’S when I started it was exciting and there were many fantastic older carpenters. Really smart guys who knew their stuff, not only in their trade but very well rounded intellectually, and educated as well. Before I could even get to their veteran status the industry had gone through too many downturns and finacialized booms, so I did something else. Middle aged Carpenters never die, they just fade away.
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
1 year ago
Reply to  Christoball
The trouble with learning by experience is you take the test before you learn the material. Education and experience is obviously superior–which is why cooperative education programs turn out great employees.
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave

There are illegal aliens everywhere… in the shrubs, in the fridge behind the olives, under the car in the garage… you just have to look!

JackWebb
JackWebb
1 year ago
Reply to  Zardoz
And now in Washington, D.C. and New York. The more the better! Go for it, Texas!
Christoball
Christoball
1 year ago
Reply to  PapaDave
So what are you saying????? That skilled construction workers should take one for the team and work cheap?????
PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago
Reply to  Christoball
Nope. That was what you were saying.
“There is a shortage of skilled labor in the home building industry who will work for illegal alien wages.”
Sounds like you are the one who wants them to work cheap.
I’m saying that skilled workers should get as much as the market will bear. They should be well paid if they have highly desirable skills.
And since labor is half the price of a house, that is why new house prices will remain high.
“There is a shortage of skilled labour in the home building industry. Hence, labor costs will stay high. And so will house prices.”
RonJ
RonJ
1 year ago
I think Elon has a micro home for something like $10,000. Maybe the price has inflated some since then, but one could possibly buy X number of them and connect them together somehow to create a small modular home. That or inter modal shipping containers. Just cut windows and doors where you want them.
JackWebb
JackWebb
1 year ago
Reply to  RonJ
I had a house built 5 years ago. I looked into everything, and wound up with a traditional stick-built house. Those “innovative” modular houses (with some exceptions) usually wind up being architecture school projects that were never going to be available. Those “tiny homes” are just plain stupid. That’s the short story. The long story is, well, a lot longer. With this stuff, cynicism or at least a boatload of skepticism is the way to go.

By the way, who’s this Elon you mentioned? A personal friend?

worleyeoe
worleyeoe
1 year ago
Reply to  RonJ
Elon Musk’s modular home in Boca Chica cost a lot more than $10K.
Dustymylove
Dustymylove
1 year ago
Reply to  worleyeoe
Elon Musk has a BOXABL ..cost 50K
JackWebb
JackWebb
1 year ago
Reply to  Dustymylove
$50K for 400 sft. = $125/sft not including land, hookups, permits, foundation and probably a whole lot more. Those “tiny houses” are laughable ripoffs.
MPO45
MPO45
1 year ago
High cost of concrete, lumber, gypsum, steel, paint, freight, AND *labor* = inflation, inflation, inflation. Got Fed hikes?
It will eventually come down although I think it will take 18 months to do so. In the meantime, more value dividend stocks for me.

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