A case can be made for all three. But there’s a clear winner.
Whole Latta Riggin’ Going On
Trump says the Friday’s job numbers were rigged.
By implication, if the “rigging” on Friday for July was lower, then the rigging for May and June was higher.
With a hat tip to Jerry Lee Lewis, there’s a Whole Latta Riggin’ Going On
Monthly Revisions
- The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 125,000, from +144,000 to +19,000
- The change for June was revised down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000.
- With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 258,000 lower than previously reported.
Would Trump have been happy had the BLS reported 19,000 jobs in May and 14,000 in June?
I suspect not.
To make Trump look particularly bad conspiracy theorists would have you believe May and June were revised higher so that could all be taken away in July.
And of course the BLS rigged all the numbers last year higher for Biden.
Competing Rigging Theories
- Somehow with all this rigging going on, for many months, with thousands of BLS personal collecting data, everyone of them is in on the scam. They take orders from the man at the top, and 100 percent of them are Biden loyalist cheats, so no one will yap.
- Trump, as usual, blames anyone but himself.
The Case for Cause
The BLS legitimately needs an overhaul.
Many of us saw this coming because of the difference between Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) and payrolls.
The BLS procedures are 4 decades old and need revision. The American Statistical Association has criticized the BLS procedures.
The BLS Birth-Death model is garbage.
There’s a case for cause, if by cause you mean finding a better person to modernize BLS procedures, models, and data collection processes.
But let’s be honest about two things. First, revamping the BLS will cost money. The same with the Social Security Administration. And Trump-DOGE wants to brag about firing workers.
Second, this is not about cause, this is a clear case of shoot the messenger.
Statisticians Blast Trump Over BLS Firing
Despite being critical of some BLS methods, Statisticians Blast Trump Over BLS Firing.
“The totally groundless firing of Dr. Erika McEntarfer, my successor as Commissioner of Labor Statistics at BLS, sets a dangerous precedent and undermines the statistical mission of the Bureau,” Beach wrote in a Friday post on the social media platform X.
Statement on Commissioner McEntarfer’s Removal
Please consider a Statement on Commissioner McEntarfer’s Removal
The President seeks to blame someone for unwelcome economic news. The Commissioner does not determine what the numbers are but simply reports on what the data show. The process of obtaining the numbers is decentralized by design to avoid opportunities for interference. The BLS uses the same proven, transparent, reliable process to produce estimates every month. Every month, BLS revises the prior two months’ employment estimates to reflect slower-arriving, more-accurate information.
This rationale for firing Dr. McEntarfer is without merit and undermines the credibility of federal economic statistics that are a cornerstone of intelligent economic decision-making by businesses, families, and policymakers. U.S. official statistics are the gold standard globally. When leaders of other nations have politicized economic data, it has destroyed public trust in all official statistics and in government science.
BLS operates as a federal statistical agency and is afforded autonomy to ensure the data it releases are as accurate as possible. To politicize the work of the agency and its workers does a great disservice not only to BLS but to the entire federal statistical system which this country has relied on for almost 150 years. We stand firmly behind the BLS, Commissioner McEntarfer, and the data they work hard to produce.
Key Point
“The process of obtaining the numbers is decentralized by design to avoid opportunities for interference.”
Trump wants you to believe hundreds if not thousands of people are in on the scheme and they are all silent.
The Cults sucks it up as if that makes sense.
My Dealings with the BLS
I do not defend the antiquated procedures of the BLS. I have been writing about the flaws for years.
Yet, I can say that in all my conversations with BLS technicians (dozens over the years), I have found BLS personal to be knowledgeable, courteous, and helpful.
Moreover, the BLS personal agree with me on some of the flaws. This is a real conversation I had a few years back.
A Real Mish Conversation with the BLS
Mish: Why don’t you look at the all data and weed out duplicate social security numbers?
BLS: We want to, but we don’t have access to the data we need.
Mish: What?
BLS: We don’t have access to the data because we are not allowed to look at Social Security numbers.
Mish: Can’t you do a sort-merge that just counts duplicates without looking at the actual numbers?
BLS: We are not allowed for security reasons.
Birth-Death Model
I have also talked with the BLS about their Birth-Death model. They know it’s flawed. Everyone knows its flawed.
But they do not have the budget to fix it.
And why doesn’t the BLS seasonally adjust the QCEW numbers?
I don’t know for sure (budget issues perhaps), but I sure know they should.
It’s the best way to make accurate comparisons between the monthly jobs data and the quarterly data.
QCEW Report Shows Overstatement of Jobs by the BLS is Increasing
I discussed seasonal adjustments of QCEW on June 16, 2025 in QCEW Report Shows Overstatement of Jobs by the BLS is Increasing
I do not have a way to seasonally adjust QCEW, but I do have permission from John “Jake” Bush at Piper Sandler & Co. to post his seasonally-adjusted QCEW data.
QCEW vs Nonfarm Payrolls Seasonally Adjusted
It is beyond my means to seasonally adjust the QCEW. But it is not beyond the means for the BLS or those with access to expensive data packages.
Anyone with a reasonable understanding of the data could take a quick glance at the above chart to see major revisions were coming.
QCEW vs Nonfarm Payrolls
QCEW data is 95 percent of the data with about a 90 percent response rate. Responding is mandatory.
According to AI, the Monthly jobs report is about 30 percent of the data with a 45 percent response rate.
Struggling businesses are less likely to respond. Small businesses are less likely to despond. And businesses that went out of business don’t respond.
The BLS attempts to make up for this with a birth-death model that is guaranteed wrong at major turns.
The BLS should update its birth-death model more frequently based on Business Employment Dynamics (BED – a large subset of QCEW data). But it doesn’t.
Business Employment Dynamics
I discussed BED vs Birth-Death on August 1 in Birth-Death Model Analysis Suggests 979,000 Overstatement of Jobs
The BLS released Business Employment Dynamics for 2024 yesterday. Let’s discuss.
The BLS should generate seasonally adjusted birth-death numbers but it doesn’t.
Importantly, BED and QCEW reports are private payrolls. Nonfarm payroll data includes government jobs.
Curiously, the monthly BLS job reports includes wage and hour worked for private employees, but the BLS does not report private payroll data. It does provide private “employment” numbers monthly but that’s from the household survey.
Massive Number of Flaws
I do not defend the BLS flaws. Heck, in my conversations with them, they don’t either.
To fix this will take money. But Trump really doesn’t what this fixed does he? He just wants better numbers.
Politicizing the BLS is the presumed big risk. Yet, my “competing theories” analysis applies to Trump as well, changing one word:
“Somehow with all this rigging going on, for many months, with thousands of BLS personal collecting data, everyone of them is in on the scam. They take orders from the man at the top, and 100 percent of them are Biden Trump loyalist cheats, so no one will yap.”
Sorry Cultists and conspiracy theorists, the data is not rigged. And don’t pee your panties because it won’t be under Trump either (or someone will point it out).
Regardless, Trump’s tariffs ensure it will get worse. I expect many small businesses will go under. Trump has only himself to blame.
Meltdown Man: We know the Fed knew ahead of time the data and yet they still kept rates the same with 2 dissenting opinions.
Mish: The fact is you have severe TDS and/or are an economic idiot
You want Powell to go with the 2 dissents, appointed by Trump.
It’s quite amusing that you are stupid enough to think that dissents are supposed to drive the process. Do the math on that if your TDS infected brain is capable. Tell us how many dissents there would have been the other way.
Since you are incapable of digging into the matter, making stupid assumptions along the way, let me help:
Kugler of late has expressed generally hawkish views, with support for holding rates steady until the impact Trump’s tariffs are having on inflation becomes clearer.
She resigned but did not say way. You are stupid enough to presume a reason, the wrong one. Given her hawkish stance, it’s likely she is sick of Trump’s idiotic pressure on a Fed that is supposed to be neutral but Trump want control himself.
The Fed did not have jobs data on Wednesday.
Now please get a grip on your TDS infected mind.
It’s curious that everyone is focusing on the weak jobs number but ignoring the inflation problem that just came out a few days ago. Stagflation is here and the Fed will need to break dance around it.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/no-improvement-in-the-feds-preferred-measure-of-inflation-for-8-months/
“It’s tariff turtles all the way down and inflation all the way up!”
To assume that the Federal Reserve can solve our unemployment problem is to assume the problem is so simple that its solution requires only that the manager of the Open Market Account buy a sufficient quantity of U.S. obligations for the accounts of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks
That is utter naiveté.
I don’t know who says the Fed can “solve our unemployment problem” but it can certainly influence it indirectly.
Through both economic theory and a century of applied use of open-market operations by the Fed.
But sure, it’s “utter naivete” to think the Fed affects US unemployment
Savings aren’t synonymous with the money supply.
This is what the U.S. Golden Era in economics was all about. During the U.S. Golden Era, the annual compounded rate of increase in our means-of-payment money supply was about 2 PER CENT. And during this same period, 1955-1964, the rate of inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index, increased at an annual rate of 1.4 PER CENT. Unemployment averaged 5.4 PER CENT.
Things ended in 1965. That’s when the commercial banks, DFIs, began to outbid the non-banks, NBFIs, for loan-funds (resulting in disintermediation of the thrifts).
Remind us how it’s stagflation when GDP is approximately the same as CPI, with both hovering at or near 3%?
That’s NOT stagflation. Typically, stagflation is associated with sub 1.5% growth that persists over at least 4 quarters.
Regardless of what the fed is doing, simply looking at the yield curve make it obvious rates should be reduced. Why have overnight higher than longer duration. Now yes I’d end the Soviet system and let markets decide, but yield cuve is a simple common sense look.
Or wait for the long end of the market yield curve to go higher, since the US budget deficit and debt is enormous and increasing daily.
But sure, it’s “obvious” rates have to be reduced
“Not about cause.”
If any executive in private sector tasked with providing accurate data to top management provided the same level of inaccurate data as the BLS past several years, said executive would have been gone long ago.
What plans had discharged BLS head proposed for providing more accurate date – none. Oh yes, more money. Reward those in charge with life long positions and lucrative pensions. No accountability?
Assume top Wall Street firms quit using BLS data long ago.
Intentional or incompetent, either way out the door you go.
To Mish:
William Beach, Former BLS Director:
“The numbers are finalized by about 40 people.”
That isn’t anywhere near thousands of people. 40 people could easily be subjected to undue bias. This is far from being impossible or even unlikely.
Is it a smoking gun? Of course not, but it completely blows out of the water the notion of a MASSIVE coverup.
If any one of those 40 blew the lid on such a conspiracy, it would be an enormous, generational lying significant economic conspiracy. Tampering with this data to besmirch a sitting president would be akin to treason and punishable by death.
No wonder like always Trump suggests there are illegal evil doers but never draws up any formal accusations in the legal system. He says he can’t because everything is rigged against him, and his cult following don’t care to think about it farther than that, hook line sinker.
This a systemic and more serious problem. Whole departments having to do with statistics and actuary science in several important agencies are being decimated or simply eliminated. This includes the SSA, FDA, and others. Truth in government is being purposely destroyed. This is exactly why some agency departments need to run independently. There’s reason to question government but not supplant one’s own reality.
Yeah Mister Mish, the economy was slowing down during Sleep Joe’s regime.
The administrative state or federal bureaucracy’s economists may have massaged the numbers some like GDP and employment going into the last election, but eventually this economic cycle’s house of cards would fall.
So, Trump fired the messenger who put forth the bad news? Well, that is incredible, and at the same time, totally not unexpected!
Now, we are just two steps away from Kim Jong Un territory.
and magically, the emperor had the most magnificent clothes woven from the bs spun by his courtiers
Ridiculously large-framed glasses are a tell.
As are those who judge books by their cover (looking at you bro)
INFLATION: How the wealthy maintain their unearned ascendance. RECESSION: When the bloated equities falter. DEPRESSION: When commerce becomes impossible. Inflation causes depression.
Trumps job is now directed towards deflection from being recognized as a pedophile and trafficker of young girls.
Gee whiz, what could go wrong for a nation led by a known pervert?
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The Birth-Death Model analysis means only one thing: the government sanctions employment numbers that are FAKE.
When, by definition, the calculations are false, what’s the point of debating whether one bureaucrate should be fired or not?
Hello?
We are necessarily reporting jobs numbers that don’t exist?
Just legislate the reporting only of numbers that do exist?
We are so far gone. We have, as a country, institutionalized LIES.
May our children forgive us for what we have done to them.
Yes, the BLS rigs the numbers. But they usually rig them in the way the government wants.
Considering that the vast majority of the jobs numbers are revised downwards in subsequent months, it should be clear in what direction the numbers are rigged.
BLS also rigs the GDP and inflation numbers, once again in a direction that isin favor of the government.
“the way the government wants”?
“in favor of the government”?
Who in the government? The head cheese (Trump)? The tens of thousands of different employees working for the federal government (since, of course, they all think/believe the exact same way)?
Sheesh
Well, they favor the current administration. They do this regardless of which party is in power. In this case as well, they rigged the numbers initially, until they realized they had gone way too far and had to backtrack quickly so they could retain whatever little credibility they still have left.
I worked at BLS back in the 70’s. There are serious limitations to data that is based on voluntary reporting. Reporters may not respond for months or they may not respond at all. Since they can’t be forced to respond, the BLS makes extensive use of estimates called imputes. The problem is that users and politicians don’t understand the inherent limitations of voluntary reporting. The surveys are bad but there isn’t any good alternative or way of defeating the problem of voluntary reporting. I hate to defend the BLS but firing the commissioner is ridiculous she had nothing to do with the revisions not being pleasing to Trump’s eye.
“The problem is that users and politicians don’t understand the inherent limitations of voluntary reporting.”
Thanks for your insider view/opinion, Melvin. I could not agree more.
But even if you explain it to them, they won’t hear it because they won’t have someone else to blame for their own incorrect POV. The politically/economically religious need to see it written in a Bible to ‘understand’
Since no one is responsible you make the case for firing all of them and starting over since the problem is the system.
Trump purged BLS: “stupid, ignorant, bs and lies”. Trump hollowed DC: “stupid, ignorant, bs and lies”. Consumers pay tariffs: “stupid ignorant, bs and lies”. Globalization was great: “stupid, ignorant, bs and lies”.
There is a lengthy article in Barron’s about how wrong the narcissistic ahole running our country is about this firing. God help us. It’s pathetic that our country had only two bad choices in this election. Reminds me of Woody Allens statement: “More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly,”.
The problem is the American public is equivalent to a small child, fat, self-indulgent and selfish. We have a few truth tellers like Rand Paul or Tom Massie but it’s a miracle they get elected. America gets the government it deserves. I guess there are more stymie checks on the way, Trump tariff dividends. That should finance a couple all you can eat buffets.
Wall Street definitely hates him because he is not playing ball with them as usual. They want to continue to be the tail that wags the dog.
If true that may be one of his positives. I know Isreal loves him they own him
There is the view coming from business and there is the view coming from the bureaucracy.
The bureaucratic view is the the system is broken but we can’t do anything about it and of course no one in the system is responsible therefore firing the head is unjust and counterproductive.
The business view is you spent $678 million and you gave me bad numbers and then tell me it’s not your fault. I will fire you and put someone in who will find out why the numbers are bad and will fix it.
Which one do you prefer?
So instead of fixing the problem by spending the real money needed to fix the system (more than a billion that’s for sure) the “business view” is firing the people telling you it’s broken? Art of the deal if I’ve ever heard it!
No, it is getting someone in who will fix the problem. Throwing more money at it is the typical government worker view. The business view is that if it is broken you fix it and if the head can’t fix it you get someone who will.
“No, it is getting someone in who will fix the problem.”
My gawd, Doug, it’s just stunning that you have these TDS afflicted people that can’t see the simple reasoning for doing this: REFORM.
The system is broken, Creamer!!!
Some people just don’t have any common sense.
Legit!
Well stated!
“I won’t pay for more burgers because burgers cost money” says the man who no longer owns a restaurant.
This is why I’m pro running the government like a business, turds like you and Trump don’t float when there’s an actual market where one can’t simply declare “I WANT IT I WANT IT I WANT IT!!!!!!!!” like a soviet pig when something costs money. You want burgers and buns? Pay market price for them or go under.
BUSINESS VIEW!!!
And if Trump installs a really competent new director, then there’s a good chance that we’re going to uncover some not-so-great things that have nothing to do with incompetence. It’s that 3rd category, partisanship, which is always the hardest to prove.
She needed to be sacked if for no other reason to reform the system. This would be a great place for DOGE to dig in & implement all sorts of AI-based analytics to help create more reliable data at a lower cost.
How business really works:
How Trumpers think:
I have said that I think it’s possible that persons within the BLS are making partisan outcomes. And there’s a degree to partisan outcomes. One of which doesn’t mean they are completely cooking the books, which I don’t think is true. But, these massive revisions have to be explained better, if not then it lends itself very easily to more deep conspiracy theories that go beyond what I think “could” be happening.
But what I know that I’ve seen over the last 16 months is that the BLS is broken in terms of their methods & analysis for the data they produce. That later point is where most people are at.
I can’t count the number of times commenters on this site have called into the question the veracity of the BLS’ data. That’s a very common thread around here. Even Mish doesn’t trust the data.
She needed to be fired. It’s that simple, and as I said below, I’m never going to defend Trump for his big, stupid mouth.
They bitch about the bad data and then bitch about the firing of the one who is responsible for giving the bad data.
Double legit!
No. The boss asks why have you been giving him bad data. The employee says he needs more money. The boss says you have been at that job for several years and it just got worse so it’s time for you to move on and fires him. The boss asks the next guy want needs to be done and the new guy looks, finds and implements solutions that the old guy just couldn’t see or wanted to do.
That is how a good company works.
I love the magic wand of this story “the new guy magically makes the numbers out of thin air!” Yeah, because he’s feeding you a lie and you’re too dumb to question it. If you run a business like this, you go under because you lack the actual insight to use PowerBI or god forbid look into SQL tables yourself.
Go on Doug, tell me how to do a SQL join for three tables or more! I’ll wait!
@Doug78:
I have a business. I report on those exact surveys.
If things are going well and I have time I send the reports immediately. I’m cheerful and love to look at the growing employee base and our positive numbers.
When things are in the soup, I de-prioritize government surveys. I’m busy trying to get things growing again. I get around to sending the reports later.
The government has no way to model that, especially when things are getting worse. People start lagging their reporting. So several months later, when the businesses get around to reporting, the initially positive numbers have to be revised—downwards.
I don’t know why you and @BenW can’t understand that problem, and why you think it’s so political? The task-oriented bureaucrats aren’t going to solve this. They don’t have the power. A senator or a Congressional committee are the ones who have to make that determination.
Firing the statistician sends a completely damaging message designed to intimidate the government workers. I hope you can at least see that?
– The bureaucratic view is the the system is broken but we can’t do anything about it. > There view is based on the fact that they broke it, in there favor at the time and therefore don’t prefer to have it fixed, as they are awaiting there next time. They want to keep as much in place as possible for use now, and in the future when they return, so as not to have to repeat it all over again.
– of course no one in the system is responsible therefore firing the head is unjust. > Keep things in place until we return (See Above).
-The business view is you spent $678 million and you gave me bad numbers. > Should be Fired, just like Kamala/Biden were, for giving Our Country Bad Numbers, but spending Billions in the process.
– I will fire You, and will fix it. > Trump Will Do Exactly That!!!
– Which one do you prefer? > MAGA as it appears to be working wonderfully so far! Has Democrats in Panic, so working. Has Countries Climbing Onboard, so working. Has Trillions in Financial Investments of New Money (not borrowed), so working, Tariffs seem to be doing well so far, as the goal they were meant to be used for, so working. Republicans are Moving UP in the Polls, while Democrats are Moving DOWN and Rapidly, so working. I fell pretty good about the way things are going right now. Not great, but much better than 6 Months ago For Sure!!!
Sure, Doug, just like Trump’s much hyped and business-sense hiring of the brilliant Musk and his algorithm-toting millennial tech force was going to save us $2 trillion in waste, fraud and abuse
Simple answers = simple-minded folks
Still, $160 Billion is nothing to sneeze at, and it’s not finished yet.
Perhaps you don’t care that $160 Billion was lifted from the Taxpayers of America, for extremely nefarious reason, BUT I DO!!!
I agree. DOGE is just getting started & is very much needed. Let’s see if they come up with additional reporting on waste & abuse.
He found the waste but Congress decided not to act on his recommendations so the onus is on Congress and not Musk. You can accuse Musk of many things but him being “simple minded” is not one of them.
Sorry if I wasn’t clear.
I think Musk has quite a bit of non-traditional brilliance.
I think your naive business vs. government analogy above is too simple-minded to be of much use
“And that’s the real problem here. It’s not so much that Trump appears to be firing someone as retaliation; it’s the message it sends to everyone else in a similar position. The message is that you might want that data and those conclusions to be to Trump’s liking, or else.”
Also…
”We learned that some historical information that recently vanished from the Smithsonian just so happens to have been objective history that Trump really dislikes: a reference to his two impeachments.”
https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/02/politics/the-trump-administration-takes-a-very-orwellian-turn
The message is NOT “that you might want that data and those conclusions to be to Trump’s liking, or else.” The Message, Loud and Clear IS: “that you might want that data to be very accurate, and If Not, then Get It Accurate OR DON’T REPORT IT, UNTIL IT IS” Good or Bad!
Looked like Velma from Scooby-Doo, Ruh-Roh!
The fed wants to wait till there is a bigger problem to fix. Trump knows there is a problem and more coming. He does not want his policies to make him look bad. The fed knows if they fire their one bullet early they wont have any left when things really hit the fan. Well be in the weeds deeper longer. Imo
Miss, please take the lead by recommending ways that the current BLS can make useful contributions to the way jobs data is reported. Revisions are evidently inevitable based upon the reporting methods. Is the monthly error rate still in excess of 100,000 jobs?
Do you know for a certifiable fact that the FOMC did not, and does not, get a heads up from any BLS personnel?
Smooth the data over 3-6 months through averaging. Then we don’t get the sharp ups/downs due to revisions.
Tons of analysts provide these smoothed averaged numbers every month already. But other market makers want the actual monthly numbers – revisions notwithstanding.
If your solution is for the BLS not to provide actual monthly numbers, you’re wasting everyone’s time. It’s a non-starter
Of course because this creates volatility and makes for tradable opportunities.
But President Trump and I contend, the general public, would be happier with raw numbers, no “seasonal adjustments” and no visible monthly revisions, which is what would happen if the data were smoothed over 3-6 months.
I am going to send this idea to the WH and ask for Trump’s attention on this. Perhaps I can sway him? [lol]
RE: Real Mish Conversation with the BLS……
So mistakes, fraud, and abuse continue on because the government wants it to – it’s a feature, not a bug…
RE: Real Mish Conversation with the BLS
Mish: Why don’t you look at the all data and weed out duplicate social security numbers?
BLS: We want to, but we don’t have access to the data we need.
Mish: What?
BLS: We don’t have access to the data because we are not allowed to look at Social Security numbers.
Mish: Can’t you do a sort-merge that just counts duplicates without looking at the actual numbers?
BLS: We are not allowed for security reasons……
So mistakes, fraud, and abuse continue on because the government wants it to – it’s a feature, not a bug…
Let’s get the sequencing clear here. On April 2, Trump unleashed a large negative supply shock on the US economy. While Trump Taco-ed back and forth over the next three months, his tariff policy chaos just increased the supply side damage (as indicated by the labor market data for May-July). What is a competent central bank with a dual mandate supposed to do when faced with this utter madness? Best approach in my view: wait-and-see how the chaos works out. That’s what the Fed did, and it was the right thing to do. Now that Trumpcession is on us, the right course will likely be for the Fed to ignore rising inflation, and focus on helping the real economy.
For someone who whined month after month about foolish data being printed by BLS, you now wake up when a President does something about it. It is sad as Trump can’t do much to improve the deep state, just like Obama approving droning to death thousands of Muslims, one or two at a time, while another Muslim just jumped up to do their dirty work.
Trump does not want to do anything about the data processes at the BLS or he will ask for more money to fix it.
What Trump wants is better reports. The Funny irony is that we will be laughing our asses off when the data gets worse with Trump’s idiot in charge.
And if he is stupid enough to manipulate the data, someone will squawk. So I look forward to the new idiot.
Trump took a decisive step towards ending or at least setting back Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
The Israeli vs Hamas is much better now under Trump.
Trump is about to make a move that could make a big difference with Ukraine vs Russia. Biden did nothing but send $160B+ with no strings attached.
Trump closed the border.
Trump is deporting all sorts of bad illegals.
Trump is unleashing American energy.
Trump is working out new trade deals with a lot of our important trading partners.
Trump is getting these same countries to make big commitments to invest in the US.
Trump is raising significant tariff revenue, without to-date, causing a spike in inflation.
Trump has put China & Mexico on notice.
Trump is rolling back all sorts of un-necessary regulations.
Trump just signed massive tax reform which will put a lot of money in everyone’s pockets, and time will tell if it adds more to the deficit.
Trump just fired an incompetent person running the joke BLS department which is good for America. Now what happens next is very important and will show us whether Trump is an idiot or a president who’s made a lot of progress towards turning the ship in just six months.
And apparently despite having serious questions about the BLS & how they come up with & analyze the data, you seem to think going in a different direction is bad.
In my book, that doesn’t make ANY sense.
Trump warned Iran days before so he didn’t do anything to the program in reality
Palestine is now set to be recognized as a state and Israel is a pariah for good because Trump failed to pull the bulldog in
Trump is about to do the same as Biden in Ukraine? Or is this more magic thinking like how he was JUST ABOUT TO UNMASK THE EPSTIEN DEEPSTATE (until he found out he was on the list)
Trump hasn’t done jack on the border
Trump has created concentration camps and illegally kidnapped American citizens while crashing the farming and construction sectors
Trump is getting America cut off from Canadian energy we can’t replace for years
Trump has been working out ‘trade deals’ for how long now Ben? How many out of those 200 he had ‘ready to go’ do we have? Go on, remind the class!
Trump has gotten people to promise things we won’t be getting because they’re on paper exclusively.
Trump has done the largest single tax raise in American history while retard ‘conservatives’ (like you) clap their fat hands at the recession taking hold. Also inflation is up you’re literally just lying now.
Trump is rolling back un-necessary regulations like what? Having national forests? Airbags in cars? Really just not needed lol
Trump has put China and Mexico together, with every nation now flocking to China to replace us
Trump just signed a massive tax reform that only benefits people making over a million a year while increasing the deficit by FOUR TRILLION DOLLARS
Fixed that for you!
WHAT did Trump do? How does firing the person in charge change anything?
It really doesn’t but at least there’s now a chance to see meaningful change within THE federal department whose job it is to provide good data to the Fed, the President, Congress & the American people.
We’re still at ground zero, but hopefully good change is coming.
As always, time will tell.
Someone is indeed droning on here, but it ain’t Obama!
We know the Fed knew ahead of time the data and yet they still kept rates the same with 2 dissenting opinions. One even quit! Other major European countries with higher inflation rates have cut their rates in half compared to the US. Powel hates Trump. That is a fact.
Rates are too low. Inflation is bubbling and will increase in the coming months. Rates should be increased in anticipation.
I wager you won’t like this take.
FOMC has 12 voting members. 2 votes is 1/6 of 12. Would you want the House to change existing laws if 75 members dissent with existing law? Or the Senate to change course if 17 members dissent?
Trump purged BLS after giving them an F. The fear of Trump is growing. The spread between BLS and QCEW is growing. Something is wrong.
My opinion is the federal government has earned their lost credibility Some of the past works:
The vaccine is safe and effective; we now have more than circumstantial evidence of its negativity efficacy and actually always had sound reasons for it not proven safe over the long-haul as there was no long-haul testing with “operation warp speed”. The whole of government health agencies were enablers and marketers of the flawed product, probably due to conflicted interests.
Effective covid treatment protocols were stifled, this likely due to lack of profit for the health care service providers and their suppliers. Several lawsuits have been won by those who spoke against the government approved procedures and were silenced or had their credentials revoked. The government lost their horse paste advertising lawsuit and had to pull all the ads, but there has been near zero in the press.
Congress continues to front run their legislation with insider trading.
General Flynn among others like Carter Page, was targeted by the department of justice and finally gave up defending himself when DOJ threatened to ruin his son, a mobster tactic.
Trump was harassed and targeted by the department of justice with phony charges and rigged jury instructions to assure a guilty verdict. Same for other Trump supporters like Roger Stone whose wife was nearly murder by them when she did not follow verbal instructions, she is deaf.
Comey’s Hillary investigation ending with no consequences was a big coverup, same for Epstein case, and the folks responsible for the burn bags of evidence either did a poor job of disposal or wanted them to be found.
Biden administration got authorization to hire 80 some thousand IRS agents who per the ads for employment had to agree to bearing arms, for an IRS audit.
Biden more than opened the border, his administration created apps and provided free air transport from other countries and voided TSA security requirements to disperse them throughout the country.
We are learning now that it is likely the whole Russia hoax was a democratic and government coordinated attempted take down of Trump orchestrated by high level government intelligence agencies, DOJ, the Hillary campaign and Soros backed NGO’s for financing with mountains of main-stream media backing.
Whole government agencies were basically funding sources for activities never intended by congress and providing cash kickbacks to those connected to them.
Trump, while he has done some good things for the country cannot be trusted to keep his word with respect to about anything especially trade and the Epstein data release. On his recent trip to Scotland, he did do some government business, but it was primarily a marketing trip for his new golf courses all at taxpayer expense.
The list goes on and on, the point is obvious; the government is not to be trusted.
We need to cede government control to our new AI Overlord, which, if independent, will not be able to be corrupted or bribed and will make logical decisions.
10-15 years away?
Is this a joke or are you actually this dull?
The British cardiologist Dr. Aseem Malhotra: ‘The harm caused by the Covid vaccine has been catastrophic’
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/13/aseem-malhotra-interview/
Excellent article on Trump’s imaginary numbers.
A post-reality world.
TACO’s weakness is math, otherwise genius.
the maximum amount anything can decline is 100%.
So more mathematic idiocy
Yes, stated in the 2nd paragraph.
Mish: given what you describe, perhaps it requires the media, including you, to not report number that you know mus be highly suspect. You, become part of the issue. if the numbers are so unstable and so often so wrong, eliminate the collection entirely. Then, I’ll bet someone in government rushes to find an acceptable answer. I’ll be one who stops reading your (all) publications of this data and projected implications as now I know how much bullshit it is. And you expose and admit it. It all makes no sense.
“Why do you play in that card game, you know it’s rigged, right?”
“Because it’s the only game in town.”
Have you actually ever done your own due diligence and read what and how and why the BLS uses the calculation techniques that it does? It’s simple to find but I’ll link to it anyway: https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm
Every monthly number is an ESTIMATE. If you expect perfection, you don’t understand statistical methodology. But individuals, market participants and policy makers don’t want to wait for the long period of time necessary to know definitively the employment and unemployment (with a specific definition) situation of 350+ million different Americans every month. So it updates those ESTIMATES each month/quarter/year as new and better information becomes available.
258,000 revision over two months is large and abnormal. But it also occurred during a time period when the President was adding and changing and deleting tariffs weekly. And the BLS survey questions don’t change. So atypical monthly changes (like the tariffs) can affect the survey outcomes in the short run. BTW, that huge revision amounted to 0.15% of the total US working population, so a rounding error if you’re concerned most with the total employment and production (GDP) of the US.
So you’re probably right to hide your head in the sand if you don’t like statistical revision. But some of us want to know what the numbers are – with the caveat we understand how they are actually constructed. So we appreciate media like Mish working on the data dissemination and analysis.
If we are going to clean up these inputs to report employment/unemployment reality; what about a housecleaning for the inputs that measure inflation to accurately portray what Americans experience in the real world? Both of these metrics fall under the purview of the BLS. You can’t just fix employment measurements and say everything is good & accurate at the BLS.
OK, gotcha. Defects but no conspiracy. HOWEVER, isn’t the chilling effect still there because Trump fired the official? Moves US towards 3rd world status? (uh….more than previous?)
Donald Trump never colluded with russia. the laptop was real. covid was manufactured in a lab and Wuhan china. masks were bullshit. Joe biden’s brain was broken. the border was never secure despite the head of Homeland security telling us it was over and over again. how many more examples do you need to give me in order for you to understand the puzzled expression on my face when you say now we look more third world.
thumbs down for reality?
Thank you!!
The BLS jobs report is used by numerous people, rightly or wrongly. The Fed uses the data (data driven remember) which influences their actions on interest rates. Putting out critical data that is only 10% accurate is incompetence at best. The BLS has put out numerous numbers that they adjust downward at a later date. No one did anything, it was all just accepted. Well, maybe Tump decided that incompetence needs to be removed, nothing more, nothing less.
Will we have a Black Monday because of this action by Trump? It seems a logical way for Wall Street to express its displeasure.
I don’t know about Monday but I monitor the options market. There is yuge open interest/volume for the VIXs and puts for October. If something big happens it will be in October because it looks like the fix is in.
Market has topped with the 5th seasonal inflection point.
Will Black Monday be a paid holiday for government employees?
Apparently not. Wall Street is OK with only reporting GOOD numbers.
“To the Moon, Alice!”
Trump’s next move will be ‘if I don’t get better numbers, then I will issue an EO to stop reporting all employment numbers!’.
Which follows in the footsteps of the old “the beatings will continue until morale improves!”.
Seasonal adjustments to data are like dark matter, which was created to cover bugs in the base equations that they can’t figure out.
People don’t want the hocus pocus of seasonal adjustments. Just use the raw numbers and smooth them over 3-6 months.
“And of course the BLS rigged all the numbers last year higher for Biden.”
Well, they did have a massive revision downward in March of 2024, and EVERYONE was aghast when that happened.
” I have found BLS personal to be knowledgeable, courteous, and helpful.”
I think the concern for those of us who will admit there’s more than enough “potential” for malfeasance is that you didn’t include the adjective “unbiased”.
If there’s nearly no one outside of the BLS who believes the data they produce is accurate, then all sorts of irregularities could arise.
And finally, the BLS are going to go out of their way to fight renewed oversight of what they’re doing, because they know that AI has the potential to completely usurp what they do for a lot less money and potentially greater accuracy & believable analysis.
The fact that they’ve been “estimating” 35% of CPI inputs over the last three months & likely going forward should be extremely alarming to everyone.
Add unbiased
Cool. That’s one guy’s opinion. No worries. You may, in fact, be right or may not.
Personally, I look forward to new leadership. My question is does all of the Trump haters think his guy is going to go in and fudge the data to support Trump’s agenda?
If so, how’s it totally impossible that Joe Biden’s gang didn’t do the same thing.
And maybe they’re not, but it’s extremely obvious that the BLS needs to be overhauled. I would imagine that you agree with that statement. And you might even agree that Biden’s people, if left in place, would not embrace positive change that upends their decades long way of doing things.
More unbridled hubris.
“If there’s nearly no one outside of the BLS who believes the data they produce is accurate”? LOL
That’s absolutely false. No one makes you look at, believe or profess faith in these numbers. If you don’t like them, fine. Don’t look at or for them. And live your life happily in blissful ignorance.
But there are SO many people that do look at these numbers and believe their accuracy now is close/better to what it has historically been (as initial ESTIMATES) of what is happening in the US economy. And they make investment and production decisions accordingly with millions of dollars?
Don’t want to know or care about that? Again, that’s your individual prerogative. But you’re not convincing anyone (of any importance, anyway) with your half-baked theories and explanations.
Good luck in your own investing future
I HAVE NEVER TALKED TO, READ ABOUT, OR WATCHED A VIDEO WITH ANYONE WHO DOESN’T WORK FOR THE BLS PROFESSING STRONG BELIEF IN THE OUTCOMES THAT THEY PRODUCE.
And I consume a great deal of news & information on the topic at hand here.
Again, if they’ve moved to estimating 35% of CPI inputs in the last three months due to Trump as they say, then that needs to be corrected because it’s 3.5X the norm over the last several years.
For you to sit there and suggest that the BLS’ methods & associated analysis of the data doesn’t need to be reformed in significant ways is the absolute definition of:
HUBRIS
You literally are the pot calling the kettle black!
Haha. As often the case in your posted tirades, you switch/deflect your positions when called out.
Your earlier post said “no one OUTSIDE the BLS who believes…” and I corrected this as false because most market watchers OUTSIDE the BLS know these are statistical estimates (not mathematical certainties) and so do ‘believe’ in their value.
Now, you expect us to believe you (alone) have a sense of what “ANYONE who doesn’t work for the BLS” knows and believes. That is the definition of hubris, my friend. And why I normally post; this super confidence in one’s own POV is everywhere here – but especially strong with you
You have every right to be fully confident in the BLS numbers.
Unfortunately, that puts you in a very low minority, and it’s easy for you to sit here and spout off about “watchers outside the BLS believing in their value”. I very much disagree with that statement.
And might I point out that I believe in the value of what they’re doing. I, like most people, simply do not believe that their statistical analysis is accurate and isn’t subject to undue bias.
Mish: What?
This is the problem. SS and the IRS could easily tell you what’s real, but aren’t allowed to. So easy to anonymize the records to tell you how many people have 1,2,3 jobs, how much they make, etc.
Instead we get…. the BLS assumptions and revisions
The market must now ignore government statistics in total. This suggests making a private attempt at obtaining, processing and publishing data, unless the market is just going to fly blind, which I find hard to imagine.
Alternatively, there will be no market and a feudalist mercantile command-and-control system will emerge. I mean one more developed than the one we currently have.
The market has always ignored government statistics. The market only moved on anticipation what others in the market would do on government statistics.
A circle jerk.
Well, there is the old shadowstats.com but unsure it if s still being maintained. Also that site is run by only one person.
The guy that gave Jeffery Epstein over a billion dollars, and set 1000 FBI agents to purging his name from the Epstein documents is shady enough to demand false economic reports? Well knock me down with a feather.
The GOP creeps that defend this pig are a disgrace to humanity.
Write a letter to his boss, Bebe.
Father forgive them for they do not know what they do. That includes you. You uneducated fool, cretin. Why don’t you visit the Museum of Communism in Prague. Spend a day there. Maybe your feeble brain will learn something about what may come this way. Trump is a lot of negative things. But perhaps we Americans won’t suffer from the Trudeaus, Mertz,Macrons, Starmers which are finishing off Canada,the EU. South America, Africa,China,Vietnam, Australia,et al. Read up on Mawdavi. That is your future. Wake up.
Wow I’d much rather have a state capitalist dictatorship than a… State capitalist dictatorship? Do you have an extra chromosome by chance?
Another pedo, spluttering with rage at being called out.
Your angry tears are delicious.
She rigged the numbers before the election to make Kamala look good.
Now, she is rigging the numbers to make Trump look bad.
Get rid of her.
She decided to throw her career away when she turned into a political operative.
Are you trying to prove you can’t read? Can’t think? Are a stupid economically illiterate Trump cultist?
I suspect all three but the first two are confirmed.
So virtually no one outside of the BLS trusts their data. Furthermore, they are NOT subject to outside audit, making them pretty much accountable to no one. You yourself have all sorts of concerns about the veracity of their methods & analysis.
But just because SocalJim thinks it’s likely that she’s a political hack, you think he can’t read, think and is economically illiterate?
My goodness, Mish, step back and realize that your concerns & his concerns can both be true at the same time. The only thing that’s really needed to put some firmness behind his concerns is a couple of brave whistle blowers to come forward which may or may not happen.
But, I can tell you this. IFFFFFF, there’s sketchy stuff going on at BLS, whistle blowers are not going to come forward without the right leadership in place who will give them cover. This is usually how this works, NO?
“Virtually no one outside the BLS trusts their data”? Like the orange idiot you spew out sayings without providing any proof.
If the president was honest, he would propose a well-thought-out plan to address the shortcomings Mish points out, rather than shooting the messenger for purely political posturing… like some kind of Banana Republic dictator.
Well unfortunately for America, he’s got a big fat mouth. But he also carries a big stick, loves this country, & is trying to good for the country, IMHO.
I certainly don’t like how he sometimes delivers the bad news to his haters, but I am VERY PLEASED with his results.
Your mileage may vary, but at least we agree on his big, fat mouth part.
I can tell you this – You have TDS
“Somehow with all this rigging going on, for many months, with thousands of BLS personal collecting data, everyone of them is in on the scam. They take orders from the man at the top, and 100 percent of them are Biden loyalist cheats, so no one will yap.”
THE BLS AS OF SEPT 2025 ONY HAD 2300 EMPLOYEES.
Easily 20% of the staff are administrative & have almost nothing to do with capturing & analyzing the data.
So right there, you’re down to ~1800 persons. Probably 60-70 of those persons are tasked with capturing data. Now, we’re down to maybe 500 persons. And of those 500 persons, only 100 or so are tasked with making the final analysis / determination & building the report. So, it’s not like there’s “thousands” of people, Mish, that have to be bought off.
And, how many people work for the FBI? It’s extremely obvious that a small group of people at the FBI are capable of doing really big & sketchy things, if they put their mind & budgets behind it.
So, let’s stop acting like it’s EXTREMELY unlikely that it could be happening, even if I do have TDS Type 2.
Nice numerical ‘analysis’ of yours of how this could still easily be an in-house BLS conspiracy LOL
This BLS labor official was confirmed as Commissioner by a Senate vote of 86-8 in January 2024 in a very politically charged climate. Hell, JD Vance voted for her.
So this woman is such a political hack/operative that almost every Republican voted for her after their own due diligence? What a joke. This is more stupid than Trump’s own personal pick of Fed head Powell being a deep-state operative against him.
God bless your soul, Mish, for putting up with these conspiratorial morons
Amen brother.
Did you notice that Ben admits to his mental illness. Lol 🤣
What part of IF do you not understand, Art?
You do get that I’m just playing along, right, since I don’t really know what TDS Type 2 really is.
Mish coined the phrase, because he hates Trump supporters with a passion.
And three months later the BLS wrote down 818K jobs. Go ask JD Vance & the other GOP that voted for her what they think of her now.
At NO POINT have I said that it’s certain the BLS is doing sketchy things. I’m simply saying it’s possible.
Ultimately, the BLS needs reforms, IMHO, so she needed to go. As usual big, mouthed Trump just can’t put together a post that lays out the real case for firing her.
So at least we have that in common. I’m never going to defend Trump’s big fat mouth.
Tulsi is proving that their is valid basis for skepticism/ firings /rebooting things. In the end, it’s all positive so, given that it relates to government, I’m willing to accept a LOT of “baby with the bathwater”. The side benefit is hearing big gov socialists whine. It’s the flip side of what we have to endure during socialist administrations.
Legit, Phil!
Great – I accept your math
Only 60 people are tasked with the data collection and they are all in on it.
Got it.
Go review those 60 persons’ voting & campaign donations. You’d be hard pressed, I bet, to find a Trump supporter or many of them.
Again, the Dems have been in control of the government for 12 of the last 16 years. That has given them, just like in almost all areas of the government, outsized influence & ability to build a deep state.
I will always firmly believe that, starting with Clinton, the Dems have built & maintained a Deep state apparatus across all levels of the government that’s more than capable & willing to do unscrupulous things to keep power. The last ten years are littered with examples.
The BLS MAY be no different. I’m very glad she’s gone. The BLS needs to be reformed. You yourself most likely agree with that. We both can agree that the manner in which Trump ditched her is not the right way to do it.
Mish. You have fallen off the ledge. The sack around your heart has given you a severe case of blindness. Please start reading Rumi. You are taking all this drivel too seriously. Please chill. This is affecting your health. I care too much about you to let you wallow in this angst. Please take a trip to Amboise France 🇫🇷 and sit by the river Loire. And chill. I’m worried about you. Let it go
Once a dunce always a dunce .
If anyone should be accused of bid rigging, it would be taco as I would not put anything possible beyond him.
All rigging will fail for the reason I noted.
True, but I can see Taco giving it a go. Controlling the Fed won’t work either, but that won’t stop him from trying.
correct.
Trump will pressure for better numbers.
And it willbackfire