Drone Damaged Saudi Oil Pipeline Down for 3-5 Weeks. Wait! How Long?

Four million barrels per day are now offline, likely for months, not weeks.

The Expert Assessment

Politico reports Saudi pipeline hit by drones will be out of service for weeks, further restricting oil flow

A crucial Saudi oil pipeline that was struck in an attack will be mostly out of service for weeks as the damage is repaired, two regional officials said Monday, as Yemen’s Houthi rebels seized more islands along Red Sea shipping routes in a new blow to Saudi Arabia’s oil exports.

Oil prices gained more than 2% amid growing worries about global petroleum supplies and the effect of the new developments on the ability of the world’s biggest exporter to get its crude to market. The Iran war has forced the kingdom to shift its exports away from the Persian Gulf, since Iranian attacks have stifled shipping through the gulf’s sole exit, the Strait of Hormuz.

So the kingdom has relied on the East-West Pipeline, which runs 745 miles across the breadth of the country, to move its crude production from Gulf ports to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. From there it can be put on tankers for export. But authorities were forced to shut down the pipeline after an attack Thursday that Saudi Arabia blamed on drones from Iranian-backed militias in Iraq.

Repairing the damage, including at a major pumping facility, could take three to five weeks, the officials, who have been briefed on the matter, told The Associated Press. The pipeline may work partially during the repairs, one of the officials said, but they could not say how much oil might get through.

The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to brief the media.

Three-to-Five Weeks? Really?

No.

In non-war conditions, say an unexpected fire or rupture, the three-to-five assessment might seem reasonable if not excessively conservative.

In this case, if rebels in Iraq, Yemen, or Iran could hit the pipeline once, then they are able to do so again, and again.

It would not be surprising for the route to be down indefinitely, until some agreement is reached between Iran, Yemen, Oman, and Saudi Arabia.

Any guesses how long might that be?

Houthis March On

Meanwhile, Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels continued to expand their threat to Saudi shipping routes out of the Red Sea by capturing the strategic islands of Greater and Lesser Hanish, government and Houthi officials said Monday.

The islands lie 100 miles north of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The strait is a choke point that connects the Red Sea to the open ocean and Saudi Arabia’s key Asian markets.

The Houthis’ advance also puts them just 20 miles from the U.S. military base in the tiny Horn of Africa nation of Djibouti, on the other side of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

For more than a month, the Houthis have been striking Saudi oil infrastructure and shipping in the Red Sea, stepping up pressure on global oil prices and boosting Iran’s leverage in its war with the United States.

The Houthi advances have seemed to come with little resistance from Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces. The rebels deployed on the Hanish islands after hundreds of government-allied forces withdrew from the archipelago, according to two government officials and a Houthi official. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to journalists.

A rebel spokesman said the Houthis fired dozens of missiles and drones at the King Khalid Air Base in the southern Saudi city of Khamis Mushait, targeting hangars, radar installations and ammunition depots. The statement on Monday by Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree did not specify when the attack took place, but the Houthis often take hours or days to claim responsibility for attacks.

There was no immediate comment from Saudi Arabia on the Houthi claim of striking the base.

Musical Tribute

Wow. What harmony.

Well, they aren’t talking but I will.

A Three-to-Five week’s repair estimate assumes no further attacks, an assessment I find not just optimistic, but ridiculous, unless there is a deal.

Any guesses when might that deal might be?

No Respite in Sight

The Wall Street Journal reports Oil Executives Say the Great Fuel Crisis Is Here

Trump officials say the oil-market disruption is temporary, but Chevron’s Mike Wirth and others warn global supplies are running low, with no respite in sight.

Commercial fuel stocks around the world have been depleting for more than six months, and strategic crude reserves can’t be tapped much further. Attacks last week shut down a crucial crude pipeline in Saudi Arabia that bypassed the Strait, stranding at least 2.5 million barrels a day from an already tight global oil market, analysts estimate.

“All these mechanisms helped to mitigate the price and supply risk,” Chevron Chief Executive Mike Wirth said Friday at an energy conference in Austin, Texas. “Those have largely now played out, and we don’t have nearly the buffers in the system that we did when it began.”

“I wish I could tell you that I saw some reason why things would ease, but it’s difficult right now to see that happen,” he said.

Don’t Worry “We Had High Prices Anyway”

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said at a Houston G-20 event on Monday that “the prices in the prior administration were this high anyway” and that Americans would have paid those prices permanently because former President Joe Biden was “pursuing a policy of energy subtraction and shutting down refineries.”  

“If you want to write about the prices, make sure you include the word ‘temporary’ because this is a temporary disruption,” Burgum told reporters. 

Hoot of the Day

We had “high prices anyway”, but now they are “temporary”.

Thanks. That’s my hoot of the day. I’ll make a note.

Note: I wish these jackasses could see how comments like the above come across to the average person struggling with Trump-sponsored inflation.

Advantage Iran

Here’s a comment that does make sense.

“The advantage in most negotiations usually goes to the side that has time on their side, and is willing to be patient,” said Wil VanLoh, founder and CEO of Quantum Capital Group, during the Austin conference. Iran, he said, “is willing to suffer. Their people have already suffered a lot for many decades.”

Let’s check back in with Burgum for the final ridiculous comment.

“We will do anything that helps the price at home,” Burgum said. “But we’re also going to be smart about it, and not just have some idea that if we stop exporting, that somehow magically is going to help the prices.”

Seems to me that if you want to do something to help, then declare the war won and leave.

But hey, keep exporting diesel and tell farmers that “prices were high anyway”. I am sure they will understand.

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