The Census Department Advance Durable Goods Report for October shows unexpected weakness on top of a huge negative revision.
New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in October decreased $11.5 billion or 4.4 percent to $248.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down three of the last four months, followed a 0.1 percent September decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.1 percent.Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.2 percent. Transportation equipment, down following two consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $11.7 billion or 12.2 percent to $84.7 billion.
Shipments
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in October, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $1.4 billion or 0.6 percent to $254.5 billion. This followed a 1.0 percent September increase. Transportation equipment, also down following two consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $1.6 billion or 1.8 percent to $87.6 billion.
Unfilled Orders
Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in October, down following eight consecutive monthly increases, decreased $2.0 billion or 0.2 percent to $1,183.0 billion. This followed a 0.7 percent September increase. Transportation equipment, down following two consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $2.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $815.1 billion.
Inventories
Inventories of manufactured durable goods in October, down two of the last three months, decreased $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $410.9 billion. This followed a 0.8 percent September increase. Computers and electronic products, down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $0.4 billion or 1.0 percent to $43.1 billion.
Capital Goods
Nondefense new orders for capital goods in October decreased $3.3 billion or 4.2 percent to $75.3 billion. Shipments decreased $1.9 billion or 2.4 percent to $77.4 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $2.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $715.5 billion. Inventories increased less than $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $180.1 billion. Defense new orders for capital goods in October decreased $2.3 billion or 16.6 percent to $11.5 billion. Shipments increased $0.3 billion or 2.9 percent to $12.1 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.6 billion or 0.4 percent to $153.4 billion. Inventories increased $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $22.8 billion.
Fourth-quarter GDP is not off to a roaring start.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Even with the manufacturing slowdown, inventory has barely budged. That means manufacturing overcapacity is at least 4%. Layoffs are coming.
No because retail sales are white hot. Remember this black Friday its not about best price but before items sell out
When the Census people can make almost a full 1 percent point “adjustment” for the previous quarter … I wonder how reliable any of this “data” is?
I wonder how much of this drop is a reduction in manufacturing expansion in the US, due to the tariffs on manufacturing inputs, steel, aluminum, and chips?
But but but Larry Kudlow said 4%. He also said “recession is so far in the distance he cannot see it. ” Seems like he is a new contrary indicator.
So even with all the new jobs Trump created, minorities continue to play professionall victim and accuse Trump of being A racist