The Beige Book is a Federal Reserve System publication about current
economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts.
National Highlights
- Economic activity increased among most Districts, but gains were generally modest and activity remained well below
levels prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. - Consumer spending continued to pick up, sparked by strong vehicle sales and some improvements in tourism and retail sectors. But many Districts noted a slowing pace of growth in these areas, and total spending was still far below pre-pandemic levels.
- Commercial construction was down widely, and commercial real estate remained in contraction.
- Residential construction was a bright spot, showing growth and resilience in many Districts. Residential real estate sales were also notably higher, with prices continuing to rise along with demand and a shortage of inventory.
- Overall loan demand increased slightly, led by solid residential mortgage activity.
- Agricultural conditions continued to suffer from low prices, and energy activity was subdued at low levels, with little expectation of near-term improvement for either sector.
- Employment increased overall among Districts, with gains in manufacturing cited most often. However, some Districts also reported slowing job growth and increased hiring volatility, particularly in service industries, with rising instances of furloughed workers being laid off permanently as demand remained soft.
- Wages were flat to slightly higher in most Districts, with greater pressure cited among lower-paying positions. Some firms also rescinded previous pay cuts. Others, however, have looked to roll back hazard pay
for high-exposure jobs, though some have chosen not to do so for staff morale and recruitment purposes.
Repeat Themes
The 32-page Beige Book mostly repeats those themes across each of the Fed’s 12 regions with some variances.
The reports are little more than the regional reports that come out through the month: Philly Fed Report, Dallas Fed Report, Empire State Manufacturing Report, etc.
Basically is a compilation of what we already know plus some service sector anecdotes.
Conditions Mirror the Obvious
Conditions mirror the obvious problems and the one known major plus, residential real estate.
Housing is fueled by cheap money from the Fed even as most of the rest of the economy suffers from weak and choppy growth.
Note that The Fed Now Owns Nearly One Third of All US Mortgages
Mish
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Biden win stimulus for Main Street,Trump win more stimulus for WS!
Had some funds lined up in the tech industry. Should have bought when when the market was down 35 percent. Thinking it was gonna drop some more i held off. Now every day when the new high price trigger goes off on my phone. I feel like im getting kicked in the balls.
You’d do much better than 35%, if you instead timed when your numbers were the ones pulled by the state lottery. Running around kicking oneself over random events, is rather counterproductive.
One need only look at the empty shelves and freezers at Walmart to know the economy is functioning far below where it was in January. When it was fully functional those shelves were full. If they are NOT full that means the single most common shoppers cannot buy what they went to the market to buy.
By the way, I bought a crockpot today, I have been looking for one since I moved in March. There were two on the shelf. Now one.
Same thing at my local Safeway the other day. Lot of shelves partially filled. I wanted a raincheck for something. Was told that they aren’t giving them “due to the Corona”.
I told them that a competitor store didn’t have a problem giving rainchecks. Asked for the manager. He said he was only the asst. manager and couldn’t change store policy. I researched issue and found:
Retail Food Store Advertising and Marketing Practices (Unavailability Rule)
16 CFR Part 424
Rule Summary:
The Unavailability Rule prohibits food retailers from advertising products at a stated price unless the products are in stock and available during the effective period of the advertisement, or the ad discloses that supplies are limited or available only at some outlets. It is not a violation if the retailer meets other conditions, such as offering a “raincheck” for the advertised products, or a comparable product at the advertised price.
I called Customer Service and explained situation and that they were in violation of the FTC rule of having a reasonable amount of stock on hand and needed to issue raincheck or an equivalent substitution because to the best of my knowledge, the FTC has not suspended any rules or regs due to Covid.
They will send this to management to investigate. Meanwhile, they were nice enough to give me an account credit in the amount of the amount of product I wanted to buy via the raincheck. Too many businesses are using Covid as an excuse to not perform.
Honestly, if the store cannot get stock, then they shouldn’t be having sales on those products.
does this mean that stocks will need to be pumped up even more?
Dow blew through 29,000 today like it was nothing, making the market cap what? I no longer know or care, they do not even publish market cap for public consumption. All I know it that the market cap is a great deal more than all the net assets of the 90% of us by household income that own 15% of those equities.
“and the one known major plus, residential real estate. “
…
the flip side – which they don’t like to talk about – cratering of urban rental market.
“Consumer spending continued to pick up, sparked by strong vehicle sales and some improvements in tourism and retail sectors.”
…
Setting aside some crazy incentives on new vehicle sales … consumer spending driven by stimulus (and forbearance / rent moratorium) … BUT delving a bit deeper my guess is that stimulus was spent – not saved – in expectation of more stimulus.
When did the House pass their $3 trillion package? May? It included another big round of checks to all households + $600 / week till next year for those on UE. A few months back felt like slam dunk passage. Now? How many regret blowing it all – rather than saving some – assuming gravy train would keep rolling?
Put me down for “experts” being surprised at economy slowing quicker than expected before year’s end (especially with moratorium / forbearance fading) as I think next stimulus nowhere near as robust as last.
Those 72 month car loans are gonna be a drag on future consumption, assuming they aren’t defaulted on…