The WHO still has not put out a global pandemic alert.
However, it’s clear the virus is spreading exponentially in many countries and on at least two continents.
Italy Update
- 11 towns, 50,000 people, placed in lockdown.
- Armed forces and police forces have been mobilized to form an insurmountable “health belt” around contagion areas. Roadblock violators risk up to a 3 months prison sentence.
- Schools closed in Lombardy, Veneto, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Emilia Romagna, Liguria, and in Trentino Alto Adige regions. Universities closed in Piedmont.
- Mayor of one of the towns in lockdown says they’ve run out of coronavirus testing kits.
- 78 new cases in Italy and 1 new death.
- Carnival in Venice and all sport and public events in Veneto cancelled.
- All public and private events, including sport, cultural, and religious events in Lombardy cancelled. Movie theaters closed.
- More than 40 football matches, including at least 4 Serie A games, postponed.
- Armani cancels his fashion show today in Milan.
- Teatro alla Scala in Milan suspends all performances.
Japan Update
- 12 new cases
- One new case was a woman in her 50s who works as a part-time school lunch attendant in Hokkaido. She had sore throat on February 15. She wore a mask, a white coat, and gloves, and carried lunches to 194 school children from the serving room to each classroom using a wagon.
South Korea Update
- President Moon Jae-in raised the alert level to maximum (Level 4: Serious) thus empowering the government to lock down cities and restrict travel. “The coming few days will be a critical time for us” he said in an emergency meeting.
- 166 new cases and 4 new deaths in South Korea.
South Korea Progression
- Feb. 18: 31 cases
- Feb. 19: 58 cases
- Feb. 20: 111 cases
- Feb. 21: 209 cases
- Feb. 22: 433 cases
- Feb 23: 602 cases
The above from Worldometers
US Equity Futures
- S&P 500: -40 Down 1.22%
- Nasdaq: -159 Down 1.7%
South Korea Kospi Index Plunges 3%
China Race against the Clock
China Lockdown Stats
New Iran Officials Soon Needed
Jim Bianco on South Korea
60% Decline in French Tourists
Iran Schools Closed
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
as posted above:
“How many sporting events will be able to assemble a crowd by the end of March?”
March Madness, indeed.
I saw rumors that Iran has over 50 deaths now, which would imply that they probably have over 5000 cases, since early on the death/case ratio is low (1% or less), though it moves higher as the early cases reach 14 days or later.
Also, cases from Iran seem to be overflowing into the entire Middle East, another sign that Iran has a major problem. New cases have been reported in Kuwait(3), Oman(2), Bahrain, Afghanistan, and Iraq.
And lo, upon the horizon appeared a lone rider, and the mucus did run freely down his blue face from under his blood caked surgical mask. And so it was that the first rider of the Stupocalpse rode forth.
The central bankers nightmare: they print money, shovel it out of helicopters, and nobody shows up to pick it up.
…..stand up comedian !
That’s the problem with too much leverage. It can yield huge losses much more quickly than it can yield big gains. This situation is entirely the fault of years of inappropriate central bank policy. In the name of risk management, they should have been very careful about how much liquidity they kept pumping. Instead, they put the peddle down every time there was a 1.5% down day in the market or every time government deficit spending put pressure on rates to move upward. Arrogant idiots.
One of the principle parts of their charter is to maintain “stability” and they have distorted the meaning of that so badly it is unrecognizable. Guess what, guys? “Stability” means a system makes proportional moves and not wild moves when big outward shocks occur. We do not have a stable financial system thanks to central bank policy. Instead we have a marginally stable system where central banks have been pushing the system back to the stable region as that stable region gets narrower and narrower.
I leave the central banks with one last thought which I have previously mentioned. How the heck do you honestly expect government lawmakers to set correct fiscal policy when the central banks of the world keep distorting interest rate signals so badly everyone thinks it is perfectly okay to run deficits that outstrip economic growth forever? More than anyone else, the financial fragility of the system is the fault of bad long term policy from the central banks.
Oh they picked up the money. They just can’t pay it back. They never can. Tough luck.
Origami to make it look like face masks maybe ? If they’re really smart the next print will be on n95 fabric.
No pandemic–ever–WHO says it no longer has a process to declare a pandemic, says old system with 6 phases is no longer being used – Reuters
With market in panic mode CNBC’s Becky Quick drags out the cadaver Warren Buffett to urge people to buy stock.
….this is a once in a lifetime 2% crash opportunity….. Well, since CBs are in total control of the economy, that is…..
Panic mode? You do realize that the SPX is just about where it was on 12/31/2019. There may well be a panic mode coming, and this could even be the start of one, but I would be hard pressed to call this a panic….yet.
NASDAQ FUTURES down 3 plus % at 6AM EST! 10 year bond a 1.386% We’re heading to ZIRP again as Central Banks have nothing else to offer.
50 TONS OF VITAMIN C SHIPPED TO WUHAN
Probably sodium ascorbate for intravenous use, but oral can’t hurt.
Placebo effect largely I imagine. But it can’t hurt, as Vit C is flushed out of the body if you take too much. Zinc also helps for some viruses.
Those in charge of prisons, jails and confined populations need to make ready plans to isolate those populations
from sources of infection! There are many critical tasks that need to be done now. Waiting may not be prudent.
The death rate is lower than the flu death rate in advanced nations. You are at risk if you have other conditions with your lungs or heart. We have a nebulizer at home with medicine in case anyone has an attack. Take your vitamins and try to exercise as it improves immune response.
I’m assuming you/somebody with you are asthmatic. Just be aware that corticosteroids are contra-indicated with this virus. Not sure why they say this or how they’ve worked it out, but i’ve come across it two or three times now.
Which is interesting, because what do corticosteroids do: amongst other effects, they increase ACE2 expression.
Now here’s another question: SHOULD we strengthen our immune systems? Presumably some of these deaths are cytokine storms, which are presumably created by overactive immune systems?
0.1% is for overall cases, which are estimated. We don’t have that info for the new virus.
My guess is that Covid 19 has a mortality rate around 0.5% or lower.
If you could just guess at whether i’m in that 0.5% or not, i’d be most grateful :).
Most of us are going to feel the economic shock i think. I would not be at all surprised if it wiped me out (50, divorced and lost everything, bought a house 18 months ago, about 10% equity in it, job due to end in August….probably few people recruiting). Still, better to live and learn than the alternative.
Mish has pointed out repeatedly that Covid 19 is nothing compared to common Flu.
It’s too early in western countries to make generalisations regarding infection and or death statistic rates.
Around 5% CFR of “resolved cases” so far in west ? So few details and small sample it is all a guess though, except that the infirm make up the first fatalities.
Can I ask people to please stop saying this is like flu. We don’t know for now, so temper your statements with “hopefully” or “it might eventually be found to be no worse than” or something. Basically you are sending people into danger by making unfounded statements on the wider (lack of) lethality of the virus.
RECOVERED PEOPLE ARE NOT VIRUS FREE?
As I pointed out earlier this virus having on his corona SP proteins similar to the ones of HIV (AIDS) it could trump somewhat our immune system. Building an immunity against it could then be more problematic than in the case of a common coronavirus like the seasonal flu.
It is too early to make a generality about the facts noticed in China that some people having recovered still have a resilient virus niche. If that is
the average case then that will be a supplemental challenge in order to stem a pandemic until (and if) a vaccine is available.
Remember those people who were locked up for life in special hospitals because they couldn’t stop shedding typhoid…..
There will be no (effective) vaccine. 17 years and SARS still has no vaccine. There are already moderately effective treatments, including antivirals currently used for HIV, chloroquine, and a few others. Some are not available in these united states. Most will run out, because manufacture in low to nil and demand will spike by 100x or more worldwide.
Self-isolation may be more important for the healthy than for the infected. Virus hides both before and after the active illness phase. Mess, but we won’t know how bad until mid-April, as mortality over time will be more than 1-2%, probably 5-15%. If infection rate is 70%+, that gives deaths at 280 million to 840 million, if each infected person is only infected once, and then everyone can go back to work. But that may not be the worst case.
Its funny you say that. I was thinking earlier that we are all assuming that there is this massive iceberg of less serious cases. But what if there isn’t.
The Death Princess will tell us for sure.
Many viruses can be spread by people who have “recovered”, including rotovirus, rhinovirus, and the flu. That isn’t too surprising. What is surprising is that it took them this long to notice.
So many people and so many governments worried about the little things in life, while pandemics have killed far more people over our recorded history.
1 million people die every year in China because of pollution.
Probably the same amount die of automobile crashes as well
Let’s wait for a few months first before commenting on statistics
News Australia is calling it.
Containment has failed prepare for Pandemic.
see :
The average age of our elected officials is pretty old.
Corona the new term limiter?
Dow futures down 1.3%
1.3% – is that really meaningful?
Deja vu: https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/us-futures-poised-to-gap-down-on-coronavirus-scare-what-then-eQBZW7WUJkSsjAf-0FbKsg
Wow! The South Korea progression looks like a Fibonacci sequence.
China and Italy numbers have this similarity: 1/6-th of confirmed cases are serious or critical or deaths. S. Korea and Japan numbers way below that for some reason. I’m assuming measurement/reporting differences.
Bought $400 of pantry supplies at two different stores today, I seemed to be the only one, although I did notice all the Purell is sold out. … Ready.gov/pandemic recommends a mere 2 weeks supply of food and water! In rich countries we are so used to living on just-in-time supply lines. Here it only takes a few days of ice storm for the locals to panic and decimate the grocery stores. So imagine if in a couple months the local gov officially declares a pandemic and closes schools and cancels events and tells everyone to stay home unless you absolutely have to go out? Half of a city population trying to buy an extra 2 weeks of food at the same time does not work.
Anyway, thanks Mish for recommending gold investments a few years ago. Glad I took that advice. It’s almost doing as well my 30T’s. 🙂
Have been systematically going through freezer and making space and shopping for nutrition dense goodies for the freezer. Pantry stocking is on going as well.
For the freezer, I have a ton of fish, but am making room for pork (shoulder and belly). I also have a system to vacuum seal pork bones with wine/vinegar to make stock.
For dry goods, I really reccomend buying flats of half gallon mason jars, washing them once, drying them, and loading them with beans/rices/etc. Stack awesome. Spices are an uner appreciated commodity – cant make beans with out chili powder, garlic, onion, and the like. Bulk powders aren’t pricey and make all the difference.
Practice cooking/eating what you place to save yer butt – you will learn and adjust.
Staying fed will be a positive outcome few might experience if things really go south – and that is where things are heading.
Stay safe and take care of your family!
Regards,
Cooter
I think the number difference is for different reasons. Japan and Korea’s numbers look correct. I think they are on top of the situation. China’s deaths are high because their cases are old, and have they have cycled into the death phase. Italy and Iran’s deaths seem high because I think they are behind the curve, and haven’t identified all the cases.
I, too have been stocking up on food. I should probably stock up on some other things, like TP, soap, etc. I have been adding some canned goods, dried goods, etc.
How many sporting events will be able to assemble a crowd by the end of March? I know I would avoid a county fair and a political party convention, for sure!
There were few football games in 2018, during the Spanish flu. I wouldn’t count on there being many sporting events of any kind for the next year. Other gatherings, such as party conventions, may also be very different, and conducted in virtual settings instead.
Trump is going to declare martial law and dissolve Congress. The Constitution will be suspended and massive concentration camps will soon be populated with the diseased and the expendable. Finally the destruction of the country will be complete. What a joyous day.
Human versus virion: We should win. We’re the toolmaker with the brain, but unfortunately, we’re also the racist, bigoted, narcissistic, greedy dumbshit with the Tsetse fly attention span.
The Chinese had this damn thing’s daddy on the ropes, SARS, in 2003. Because it wasn’t killing us, only Chinese, we walked away, stopped grants studying how to detect and deal with coronaviruses, etc., and here we sit.
No career nor grant money in pandemic prevention my boy: Climate, Climate; That’s the future…
Yes, very true@abend237-04 see the blog for today at Marginal Revolution (economist Tyler Cowen) on how Bush’s 2005 proposal to beef up pandemic responses in the USA were blocked. The USA is in many ways currently worse at fighting pandemics than China is. Not to mention incentives for finding a vaccine are not as good as they should be (an earlier Tyler Cowen post).
They did try to find a vaccine for SARS. Unfortunately, in animal testing it made things worse, not better, so they abandoned it.
“Climate climate” … No. My buddy is a research physicist at one of the Lawrence Labs in the Bay Area and he says that the requests for money play down any climate science angles because the current administration can’t understand the simple science, let alone understand complex proposals. Currently the buzzword that gets the purse opened is “Quantum Computing”. Grant writers only need to raise the Chinese bogeyman and all the moronic politicians crap themselves and throw money at anything.
We can thank Trump for putting intellects like “Cheerleader Expert Rick Perry” in charge of the DoE. Now we have Brouillette at least we have somebody who can remember that the DoE exists and has a faint clue as to its purpose.
At least Trump isn’t trying to defund the CDC, I mean, even for him that would be … uh oh.
Notice how the Shanghai and CSI 300 no change over months now. Yeah right, no manipulation here! Meanwhile, Hang Sang down 440 (1.6%) right now.
They banned selling. Prepare for margin calls.
We could just see this thing coming watching on line brokers offering free trades, no fees. Same game different down cycle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZBNdszL3iA
The CBs have already said they are going to do whatever it takes.
We now get to find out what that is.
YOUR CHART IS WRONG–IT HAS BEEN REVISED BIGLY WORSE BY THE CHINESE
During our nighttime hours is when the local Chinese statitisions check in. So their stats grow at night and our stats during the day, naturally.
Mish, the top chart doesn’t look right. It’s identical to the one I saw on Chris Martenson’s video a few hours ago, except the top row (China) numbers were higher:
Note- the chart appears about 25 seconds into the video.
I need more toilet paper.
Only 7 new cases in China? That’s hard to believe. Is the lockdown preventing new cases from being identified?
It may be slowing in China. Looked like it for some time now.
The count based on superficial symptoms, btw.
I saw the same chart a few hours ago, except the China numbers were much higher (+652 new cases and +99 deaths).
Posted the link for Mish below.
The only question with China’s numbers is to add 1 zero or 2. I vote two.
China figures are meaninglessness.
“The only question with China’s numbers is to add 1 zero or 2. I vote two.”
Exactly ….. I figured 50-100x times the “statistics” the absolutely ignorant media are parroting to the public. Who believes anything media says? In China or the USA.
The few people I have talked to about this absolutely hate the truth. It’s always the same Na that’s not going to happen. They are always very sure of themselves.
People hate the truth.
During our nighttime hours is when the local Chinese statitisions check in. So their stats grow at night and our stats during the day, naturally.
China is reporting about 500 cases a day now, or less than 1% growth. Almost all new cases are in Wuhan. As you would expect, deaths, which are based on cases reported two weeks ago, continue to rise. Deaths continue to be concentrated in Wuhan, where the cases were growing in 2 weeks ago.
I know many/most here don’t believe the Chinese stats, but it really doesn’t matter whether they are correct or not, because regardless of whether they are correct or not, the global picture is not good. I’m hoping that they are correct, because that means that with draconian quarantines the spread can be limited, which is good for all of us.
In the end, behavior speaks louder than words, and the Chinese numbers do match their behavior. With falling cases, you’d expect them to try to re-open production, and they are supposedly doing that today. Re-opening production poses a new problem. Even if draconian restrictions on movement are able to stop the spread, can they keep the spread limited, and continue to produce at the same time?
Local governments were advised that they will be punished if new cases are discovered, so they no longer discover new cases.
Is this just a Soviet joke? I can’t tell anymore.
Here it comes, the virus will be so bad Trump will cancel the elections and declare himself President for life.
King, hopefully.
Looking at the Dems, he might still be the pick of the litter.
Damn and just think we could have had Queen Hillary. Missed opportunities.
It is on, like Donkey Kong.
The money printing response will be Biblical in magnitude.
Prepare yourselves accordingly.
If so, the inflation will be massive, too. With production declining rapidly, there will already be a shortage of goods. If even more money is chasing the same goods, it will be worse. In the meantime, now, it seems, the Coronavirus finally has the market’s attention. We shall see what happens next.
This market is balloon looking for a pin. Anything can topple it, absent rumors from central bankers.
This is one of those rare situations that government really has zero control of – and their corpus doesn’t really get that – until it is too late at which point they just cover their collective asses.
To quote a great scientist/physiscist:
Reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.
These fools are info-warring against NATURE – won’t turn out well. (Deplorable) Farmers do this for a living. Take care of your own.
Regards,
Cooter
Indonesia wants a “coordinated global” solution to containing coronavirus. By the time world governments put a global plan together, the virus will be unstoppable. The best strategy for Indonesia (every country for that matter) is to quarantine itself from the rest of the world until every nation has no new cases in 30 days.
Because the governments we have now aren’t big, incompetent and unresponsive enough.
Right.
What is YOUR solution?
I made a prediction. Not a suggestion.
Indonesia cannot even contain its runaway population growth, and subsequent destruction of its unique natural environment, a much easier task.
As best I can tell, coronavirus can.
Regards,
Cooter
We could take drastic action: kill the hosts. Test positive, BAM!
Seriously, though, prepare all hospitals by reserving wings for quarantine. Expand the ICU capacity as much as we can. Load up on O2, and order more respiratory machines. Those are things that are sorely lacking wherever a Covid 19 hotspot has developed.
I suspect the virus is so widely spread that testing catches only a small fraction of cases. Most people have probably mild symptoms and just walk it off.
Latkes said; “Most people have probably mild symptoms and just walk it off.” // That is what the best available data seems to suggest is happening.
Just so, the more severe cases that need a high order of treatment to survive, is between 10% and 20% of those infected. They will need ICU level care for more than ten days.
Where you live, how many of your ICU beds are normally being utilised? Is there enough capacity available to absorb a sudden need for intensive medical care by 4% of your local population? (4% assumes 1/3 get infected, and 10% of those cases are severe.)
UK, 590 critical care beds are available country wide in a good winter. In a bad one, 300.
Those beds will be full by the time we have any UK cases, since we continue to fly people in from areas with big outbreaks.