Existing-home sales fell 1.9 percent in April and are also down 1.9 percent from a year ago. Sales have not gone anywhere for 17 months.
The NAR reports Existing-Home Sales Retreated 1.9% in April
Key Highlights
- Existing-home sales faded 1.9% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.14 million. Sales also dipped 1.9% from one year ago.
- The median existing-home sales price rose 4.8% from March 2023 to $393,500 – the ninth consecutive month of year-over-year price gains and the highest price ever for the month of March.
- The inventory of unsold existing homes climbed 9% from one month ago to 1.21 million at the end of April, or the equivalent of 3.5 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace.
- First-time buyers were responsible for 33% of sales in April, up from 32% in March and 29% in April 2023.
- Individual investors or second-home buyers, who make up many cash sales, purchased 16% of homes in April, up from 15% in March but down from 17% in April 2023.
“Home sales changed little overall, but the upper-end market is experiencing a sizable gain due to more supply coming onto the market,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
Existing-Home Sales Percent Change from Month Ago
Since February of 2022 existing home sales have only risen 6 out of 27 months.
Existing-Home Sales Supply
At the current rate of sales, the supply of homes for sale is 3.2 months.
Existing-Home Sales Percent Change from Year Ago
Data on the St. Louis Fed is limited. Year-over-year sales are down for at least 22 consecutive months.
At some point, year-over-year sales will rose but don’t make too much of it. The following chart puts sales into the proper perspective.
Existing Home Sales Since 1968
Existing home sales have fallen to 4.14 million, about where they were in November of 1978.
The Civilian Noninstitutional Population (age 15+ not in the military or prison, etc.) was 132.9 million. As of March 2024 it was 267.9 million.
Housing Starts vs Completions Looks Ominous for the Economy
Housing completions have surpassed housing starts. History suggests bad things follow. But what’s happening this time?
On May 16, I commented Housing Starts vs Completions Looks Ominous for the Economy
Starts Minus Completions
Except perhaps for the last box, the first four are associated with recessions.
Whether it’s all completions or just multi-family that matters the most, it doesn’t look very good either way.
And I still wonder where we are going to house millions of illegal aliens and at what price.
Watching months’ of supply. Getting back into pre-COVID range. Market continues to normalize. Time to watch for pockets of weakness and see if they spread?
new/springtime listings here (midwest) that were priced correctly (20% less than last year’s comps) sold quickly… gone.
old/stale listings that have not significantly lowered their ask are STILL unsold… a lot of old inventory priced like it’s 2005, much of it has been listed for 12+ months.
imo, too many sellers are delusional. I’m seeing buyers forcing MUCH harder bargains upon sellers – a rare phenomenon w/in residential RE. I’ve seen buyers walk away, and then sellers chase them down a week later.
The suburbs of large cities that people left to Work From Home are seeing a revival. The Work From Homers are moving back to be in the office, or they lose their job. The weakness is in remote locations. Work From Home is DEAD.
Top talent works where it wants to, and that isn’t come crappy open office. If you see a company that has managed to corral a bunch of employees into such a place, they’re only there because they have no other option.
You can draw you own conclusions about what employing bottom of the barrel people bodes for a company’s outlook.
Trust the science. Go door to door and take a pole.
The multi are responsible for the decline. Privately owned, in construction 5+ units are sharply down. Up 360K since COVID, down 100K to 919K, or (-)28%. If rent is so great why would construction stop.
People are buying bunk beds.
“The median existing-home sales price rose 4.8% from March 2023 to $393,500″
I know Texas and pockets in the West are still stagnant as far as prices, but there are places where the increases have been double digits over the last year (like where I live in MA).
Unless people start losing jobs en masse, I don’t see how prices will ever go down anytime soon.
If your house is paid off, that’s great. But if you want to move, you won’t be able to buy unless you sell your existing house first, because no seller in a tight market (which describes most of the country right now) is going to accept an offer with a sales contingency.
If you’re wondering where all the immigrants are going to live, take a look at the housing market in upstate NY. That area was stagnant for a long time but now all of a sudden it’s one of the hottest housing markets in the country.
7% mortgage interest was normal until Bernanke et.al. debased the dollar.
I would imagine real-estate demand is still somewhat local. In my neighborhood, two ranch-style homes 4/2 with pools just sold and were on the market for a total of 2 days. I assume the sellers got their asking price (or more) in the $800K range.
If you like your used home, you can keep your used home
I like it. It’s paid for, but older and needs some renovation work to make it a long term house.
But….anyone not already in a home is in a world of hurt right now. I feel for them as this is the worst market for a home in my lifetime.