Existing Home Sales Decline 8th Consecutive Month, Down 1.5% Says NAR

The National Association of Realtors^® (NAR) reports Existing-Home Sales Slipped 1.5 Percent in September

Key Points 

• Existing-home sales sagged for the eighth consecutive month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.71 million. 
• Sales slipped 1.5% from August and 23.8% from the previous year.
• Total housing inventory2 registered at the end of September was 1.25 million units, which was down 2.3% from August and 0.8% from the previous year. Unsold inventory sits at a 3.2-month supply at the current sales pace – unchanged from August and up from 2.4 months in September 2021.
• The inventory of unsold existing homes declined for the second straight month to 1.25 million by the end of September, or the equivalent of 3.2 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace.
• The median existing-home price for all housing types in September was $384,800, an 8.4% jump from September 2021 ($355,100), as prices climbed in all regions. This marks 127 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record. It was the third month in a row, however, that the median sales price faded after reaching a record high of $413,800 in June.
• First-time buyers were responsible for 29% of sales in September, unchanged from August 2022 and slightly higher than 28% from September 2021. 
• Individual investors or second-home buyers, who make up many cash sales, purchased 15% of homes in September, down from 16% in August, but up from 13% in September 2021.

Existing Home Sales Percent Change From Month Ago 

Existing home sales have decline 8 consecutive months. 

Existing Home Sales Month’s Supply

The supply of homes for sale has risen in seven of the last eight months. August was the exception and it was flat. 

Housing Starts Resume Crash in September as Widely Expected

As noted yesterday, Housing Starts Resume Crash in September as Widely Expected

Comments on the Fed

• The Fed actively created a housing bubble a second time, by holding interest rates too low, to long again.
• The Fed added mortgages to its balance sheet all the way to March of 2022 despite surging inflation.

Inflation Out of Hand

In related news, please note Renters Surpass Homeowners in 41% of Zip Codes in the 50 Largest U.S. Cities

To understand how far the Fed let inflation progress, please see CPI Much Hotter Than Expected Led by a Surge in Price of Food and Shelter

Now, the Fed actively seeks to pop the housing bubble that it created. Given policy acts with a lag, the Fed is likely to overshoot with a policy error in the opposite direction.

Q: Is this anyway to run a business or an economy?
A: Of course not.

Sales are down 23.8% from the previous year but they are down 27.4% since January. This is unheard of outside recessions. 

The Fed tries to steer the economy like a truck, but given lags and the Fed’s misinterpretation of data as well, it cannot be done and the Fed should not even try. 

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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