GDP 2nd Quarter Forecasts 8 Miles High and Falling Fast
Because of huge covid distortions on GDP models, I have not followed them for about a year.
With 2nd-quarter GDP results out tomorrow, I thought I would take a look.
GDPNow Forecast
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast is 6.4% today down from 7.7% yesterday.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 6.4 percent on July 28, down from 7.4 percent on July 27. After this morning’s Advance Economic Indicators report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.8 percent to -2.4 percent.
The GDPNow forecast peaked at 13.7% on May 5 following the ISM Non-Manufacturing (services) report.
The GDP Real Final Sales forecast (the bottom line number excluding inventories) is 7.0%.
New York Fed Nowcast
The New York Fed Nowcast stands at 3.16%.
Econoday Consensus
For those who want a third opinion, the Bloomberg Econoday Consensus is 8.0% in a range of 5.6% to 9.5%.
Real GDP Number to Beat
The previous economic high was in the 4th quarter of 2019. A rise in real GDP that exceeds 0.88% or better will take out the previous high.
A new high is given. Expect chants of “Recession Over”. But for many millions of unemployed it won’t feel like it.
And employed or not inflation is the concern. Today the Fed admitted “Inflation Might be Higher and More Persistent Than Expected”.
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