Sudden Layoffs
So many people were suddenly laid off in March and April that the average number of weeks people were unemployed plunged to 6.1. That was an all-time low.
Longer-term charts show more ominous trends.
Weeks Unemployed 1999-2020
The average number of weeks someone is unemployed tends to peak long after a recession has ended.
A long-term chart shows this more clearly.
Weeks Unemployed 1948-2020
Related Ideas
- Job Recovery Slows and Headwinds Mount for October
- The Airlines, Allstate, and Shell Announce Mass Layoffs
- Death of the Department Stores and the Alleged Retail Recovery
- Little Progress on Unemployment Claims but Checks Grind to a Halt
Trends suggest the average duration of unemployment will skyrocket for years.
Mish
“The average number of weeks people remain unemployed is on the rise and it will get much worse.”
Disneyland has been closed for 6 months or more. Last week there was a clip of the Mayor of Anaheim, begging Governor Newsom to do something about it.
The big picture problem is that population keeps increasing while automation/robots continues to eat away at human job availability.
The problem is that the economic models of virtually every country depend on more workers working at more jobs while paying more taxes.
These two situations are at odds with each other.
What do we do to resolve these problems? Tax robots/automation based on human equivalent jobs they do? Ban robots/automation? Or reduce the world population by say 7/8’s?
Public policy continues to be biased in favor of dramatically accelerating the pace of automation. Increases in minimum wage obviously push businesses to automate, and there is a push for a $15-25 minimum wage, which lead to a massive automation boom, and leave a vast swath of the population permanently unemployable.
It makes a lot more sense to increase the duration that people can get unemployment than to increase the amount they get, and especially it makes mores sense than increasing the amount they get to a level higher than what they earned while working.
Powell is right as far as the need for more stimulus……he’s been fairly consistent on that….trouble is Mitch M. is in his austerity mode.
Biggest problem with stimulus is that it tends to get sucked into a black hole by insiders….all these stories about poor people defrauding the government…I never read much about Mnuchin’s buddies and Trump’s buddies and family…but I know how bail-outs work. More pork to be carved for the insatiable top .01%.
America is running on fumes…..Mish’s reports lead me to believe that…and we can bail people out or we can watch the real economy crater.
Powell says the danger of doing too little outweighs the costs of doing too much.
WTF is going on with additional funding…
….“The expansion is still far from complete,” Mr. Powell said in remarks to be delivered at a virtual economics conference Tuesday. “At this early stage, I would argue that the risks of policy intervention are still asymmetric. Too little support would lead to a weak recovery, creating unnecessary hardship.” By contrast, the risks of providing too generous relief are smaller, he said. “Even if policy actions ultimately prove to be greater than needed, they will not go to waste,” he said….
Powell’s speech translated: “Governments, keep giving out money! Meanwhile, we’ll keep the housing and stock markets inflated.”
Apparently, Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease and group think can damage the brain in equal measure.
The malaise is the result of kicking the can for decade, and now it’s payback time.
Unmanageable budget deficits, zero interest rates, debt out the wazoo, and the economy in the toilet.
In clear view, this is a systemic failure.
Maybe if there was intelligent life, they wouldn’t give the central banking cartel the triple mandate, when it can barely manage one.
It depends both on the career field, and a willingness to relocate. Some fields are still in demand while others are gone or close to being gone, and people need to adapt if they want to remain successful. It’s not easy to up and sell everything and relocate but casting a nationwide net is more fruitful than a local net. Learning a new trade at the local Community College is also a valuable path, and regardless of what someone chooses these all take time. That’s why recoveries take time. But I’ve also seen wayyy to many people (after 07/08) not do anything except wallow in their own misery and watch their standard of living deteriorate. That’s on them, guess it depends how hungry they are.
The definition of MAGA-madness….I’ve also seen wayyy to many people (after 07/08) not do anything except wallow in their own misery and watch their standard of living deteriorate….
…I don’t want my life to change…I want it to be the way it was…
Learn to code.
Out of any possible career–coding is the most rootles of all…
I used the strategy to move (except to left coast and Illinois), even for contract engineering. Employers were generally unwilling to bring in talent because of moving expenses. I told them I could be in the office in 48 hours and I declined moving expenses. I still got a cold response in general. The chances I got to relocate temporarily were well worth it to build my career.