Here are my thoughts for the year ahead.
#1: Trump will Lose His Supreme Court Battle on Reciprocal Tariffs
Expect a 6-3 margin against Trump, possibly 7-2. I rate this a 75 percent chance.
Then If he loses, then there is about a 60 percent chance of at least some of the money will have to be refunded.
Trump will moan the SC is killing the best economy in history. He will also say that the ruling will have no impact at all. This is illogical of course, but seriously, expect both statements.
Trump will pursue other avenues of doing the same things with mixed success (using the word success in terms of what Trump wants, not what’s good for the country).
#2: Trump will Lose His Supreme Court Battle on Birthright Citizenship
Expect a 7-2 vote against Trump. 9-0 would not be a surprise.
I rate this a 90 percent chance.
#3: Trump will lose his Supreme Court battle over the right to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook.
Expect a 6-3 vote against Trump. I rate this a 80 percent chance.
#4: AI will have minimal impact in 2026
There will be some job losses. And some speculation fails. But don’t any extreme job losses or huge numbers of AI-related bankruptcies. Extreme events are unlikely.
I rate this an 75 percent chance.
#5: Tariffs Will Bite
Businesses that can will pass along more costs. In contrast to AI, we will see job losses mount.
Small business bankruptcies soar.
Trump will blame Biden, the Fed, and the Supreme Court for everything bad that happens.
I rate this an 80 percent chance.
#6: Republicans Lose the House
Voters do not believe we have best economy in history. And they will take it out on Republicans in the midterm elections.
It will be a low turnout affair as non-MAGA republicans show no enthusiasm to vote.
I rate this an 75 percent chance.
#7: Trump persuades Russia and Ukraine to accept a peace deal.
This will be Trump’s key accomplishment in 2026.
I rate this an 60 percent chance.
#8: Health Care makes the Fed’s life miserable.
Health care will add 1.5 to 2 percentage points to he PCE. And that’s the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.
I rate this a 70 percent chance.
Unless the economy collapses everywhere else killing demand (and it could), the Fed will have a difficult time cutting rates.
Consumers are already upset over inflation. Health care will make 24 million people on Obamacare miserable.
#9: Finally a Recession
The Fed is concerned about job losses to the downside and inflation to the upside. I agree with the Fed on both scores.
AI will not be a savior for the economy. Nor will the Fed. The economic damage from tariffs and deportations will finally sink the economy.
I don’t have a strong conviction about recession. Call it 55 percent.
Right now we have a K-shaped economy propelled by AI spending and health care spending. The wealthy are propping up aggregate spending.
How much longer consumer spending stays robust depends on the stock market. I have no firm conviction. But as long as the stock market stays elevated, the wealthy will keep spending.
That said, I do have a strong conviction of the type of recession when it finally happens: Long and shallow, the opposite of Covid which was short and extremely deep.
The Fed will be constrained in action because of health care inflation, because a weak dollar adds to inflation, and because debt levels and rising debt pressures the dollar.
#10: The Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate heads up to 5.5 percent. I rate this a 70 percent chance.
That’s less than a full percentage point rise from where we are.
5.5 percent unemployment is not a huge number. Demographics come into play. Retiring boomers keep the rise to a minimum.
This call is related to a long, mild recession but it can happen even in the absence of recession.
Related Posts
- Economy: Fed Minutes Show Concern Over Upside Risk to Inflation, Downside to Jobs
- Tariffs: What Are the Odds the Supreme Court Rules Against Trump on Tariffs?
- Small Businesses: Richmond Fed Survey Shows Small Businesses Impacted More by Tariffs
- Deportations: 550,000 Who Are Legally Working Lose that Status by Year End
- Stock Market: Michael Burry Is Shorting Nvidia and Palantir. Early, Wrong, Neither, or Both?
- Ukraine: Trump Praises Zelensky, Cites Peace Progress, After Meeting at Mar-a-Lago
- Fed Lisa Cook: Trump’s Chance to Pack the Fed with Loyalists Just Blew Up
- Midterm Elections: What Are the Odds Democrats Flip the House in the 2026 Midterms?
- AI: How Much Did AI Spending Contribute to First-Half GDP? What About Q3?
- AI: Is AI a Magic Bullet or a a Doomsday Machine?
- AI: ‘AI Is Going to Change Literally Every Job’ Warns Walmart CEO
- AI: Elon Musk Backs Universal High Income Fearing AI Will Take Every Job
- Health Care: Health Care Inflation Bomb Makes the Fed’s 2 Percent Target Almost Impossible
- Health Care: How Much Does Health Care Contribute to GDP?
- Debt: US Debt Now Grows by $1 Trillion Every 150 Days
- Jobs: Only a Third of CEOs Plan to Hire Workers in 2026
- Jobs: Challenger Reports Employers Announced 71,321 Job Cuts in November
- Jobs: Small Businesses Drop 120,000 Jobs in November, ADP Total Down 32,000
- Birthright Citizenship: What Were the US Senators Thinking When They Debated the 14th Amendment?
anyone who votes for blue is a big dummy
Constraints to World Wide Growth in 2026 and thereafter will be measured in ounces of SILVER available . . .
Chance of #7 happening is ZERO. Otherwise good predictions.
% chance of full scale war with Venezuela?
100%. that is our oil they have stolen. like all over the globe from indonesia to kuwait
If it’s oil, it’s indubitably owed to us by our imperial greatness.
Newsflash… something happened.
Will Trump take over the cocaine and fentanyl trade and use his Honduran connections to set up his family with supply and distribution profits?
that is the CIA franchise business.
My prediction: Democrats will take the house and senate in overwhelming margins with the promise to impeach, remove and prosecute Trump for his treasonous crimes against this country. Once in power, the cabal of Jeffries and Schumer will instead decide to fluff the orange man’s ego thinking appearances of bipartisanship will win them the 2028 election. They will fail.
The senate will never get 2/3 to vote to oust Trump. The democrats will probably take the house in 2026 and impeach Trump multiple times.
Replacing Trump with Vance would be like shitting in your pants and changing your shirt to get rid of the stench…
If we had a functional Justice Department we would have a RICO Act prosecution of everyone involved in the Epstein cover-up and obstruction of justice. Including Prince Andrew and Bill Clinton.
At least Prince Andrew took some responsibility and apologized.
First you’d have to take your country back from AIPAC and Saudi Arabia but none of you will go there, will you? So just keep buying Palantir and Nvidia and shut up.
I think we are still waiting for the apology from the ex-Prince. The only penalty he has received is a slight downgrade in tax payer funded housing.
Your first mistake was caring about a royal, those wastes of human flesh
It will go one of two ways. Now or later Trump will be impeached and convicted. Here is how.
Option one:
The GOPs in the house impeach now and then force Dems in Senate to join them and convict. The US has a chance to survive. Vance will then unwind most to Trumps decrease.
Option two:
The GOP in the house will stall impeachment. After the Dems sweep the midterms,
they will impeach and convict Trump and Vance. Then add 4 new judges to SCOTUS.
They will then Jerrymander all GOPs out of existence and create a Socialist Dictatorship that make Trump look liberal. Then the US will collapse.
I agree with some of your…forecasts as I can’t call them predictions. Here’s mine:
the economy will boom is 2026. Market will zoom up and highly acclaimed macro-economic writers like you will be like????huuh? The can will continue to be kicked down the road! You’ll see!
we’ll all be billionaires with the new Trump Dollars
… and monkeys will fly out my butt.
My predictions on the only things that really matter:
1. The demographic death spiral will continue, more boomers will retire and more will expire and the young will continue being child-free. Will cause inflation to spike.
2. The debt will continue to explode higher and higher.
3. Smart people and smart money will continue to exit.
The three can be summarized as demographics, debt, destiny.
number 1 is deflationary. all debt explosions end badly. in a few different ways but most is deflationary. lots of humans both smart and not so smart will continue to move around the planet. same as it always was. underneath this empire of debt and war there is a nation of mostly assholes, but most just want to do what all people in the world want to do. all empires crumble. but last i looked, moscow and madrid and paris and london and Peking are still there. and working. same will happen in NYC and bumbfuck usa is my prediction. just like i eye witnessed in russia in the 90s
No, a decreasing working age pool represses the supply in the labor market, which is inflationary.
Sly Stone wrote a song about the debt: Gon’ take you higher!
Boom Shaka laka laka
Exit to where?
It’s the end of the Age of Pisces. No, not the second coming. The Age of Aquarius. New order. New gods.
Lovely predictions! Out of curiosity, did you make predictions for 2025 and if so, will you blog about how they unfolded?
I think the ALIENS will finally land.
DON’T SHOOT THIS TIME!
Ack ack ack
Klaatu, Barada Nikto!
The one predictable item for 2026 is that taco will continue to break laws, violate the constitution, insult as many opponents or those he doesn’t like and put as much of the taxpayer’s monies as he can into his and his family’s pockets.
Bingo!
We have a winner!
Trump has already borrowed $2.5 trillion and injected it. How can you possibly have a recession, when he will further inject ANOTHER $2.5 trillion ($5 trillion all told borrowed) before the end of his presidency?
i have my zimbabwe billion and italian lira i keep in my wallet next to an ounce of gold and 250 year old portugal coin to remind me that i’m already a billionaire.
You gotta turn in that Escudo coin from Portugal. There is a cut-off.
at this stage that 2.5 trillion is already baked into the economic pie. For deficits to contribute to the economy they have to run it up even more. If they simply get a slightly saner budget with less spending its a drag on GDP
Surprised we didn’t get a prediction on Israel/Palestine given we got one on Russia/Ukraine.
Things looking dicey in Iran. I would not be surprised to see a collapse there this year or next given the rising unrest and the huge water issues in Tehran and elsewhere in the country. A collapse in Iran would be a major event.
I think Mish underestimates the AI impact. Not on jobs (I agree it won’t do much there) but rather on electric demand and rates. Especially in the summer when usage rises dramatically due to AC demand. 2026 could bring unrest here over rates and/or black/brown outs due to data center demands.
“2026 could bring unrest here over rates and/or black/brown outs due to data center demands.”
Possible drone or home made mortar attacks on data centers if brown/black outs occur.
That one’s easy.
Late in the year, Israel will get tired of doing horrible things to Palestinians.
Palestinians will rebuild over a few years.
A group of spun up Palestinians will do some horrible thing to a bunch of israelies.
Rinse and repeat, for 10,000 years.
Palestinians are a bunch of professional refugees who still support Hamas who in turn have vowed to not just destroy Israel, but to genocide all Jews.
Their only contribution to humanity will be to serve as an example of how spectacularly a society will fail when it has no interest in behaving in a civilized manner.
happy new year mish and company. i like your predictions. one question. i remember you nailed the deflation back almost 20 years ago in circa 2006 or so. i agreed and sold properties. bought back many more in 2011 after the debacle. in my hood in phoenix at the time, properties went down about 70% from 2005 to 2012. cap rates became so juicy. i am talking with pals from all the regions i’ve lived and watching the r/e markets there. CA, AZ, FL, SC and NYC and upstate NY too. i smell another big deflationary pullback with the smoot hawley Trump trade taxes etc…….contributing to a real bad depression coming. the age of median buyers of r/e is so damn old and the volume is like penny stock BS…………..i’m hoping i am not dreaming for what i want but i smell this. sold all my properties in 2022. in the regions i did, those properties are down quite nicely already with no volume. any thoughts MISH or the smart commenters would be greatly appreciated. thanks in advance.
Silver will peak at $150/ounce.
trump might default on foreign owned Treasuries and issue new trump dollars. wire in everyone’s account a cook million or billion………….it’s the future. saw the same stuff in Russia in 90s as that empire collapsed onto a nation of people that still kept on getting up, taking their morning stuff and eating and fucking and working………….might be my 2nd crumbling evil empire to eye witness in one lifetime. i’m a lucky fella.
Thanks for sharing these predictions, Mish.
One thing I love about your global economic blog is that you are quite bullish on gold (and possibly Silver). However this prediction post says noting about gold or silver.
Would you please offer your thoughts, predictions, ideas and/or expectations of precious metals for 2026?
I am surprised Mish is not covering gold as much as he used to. His premise is that he has covered it in detail and there is not much to add. I think that the PM market has changed dramatically and is changing right now with the banning of the sale of Silver and other strategic metals by China effective January first 2026 (today).
Also consider: There are new futures/delivery markets in China, JP Morgan has cleaned out its short position on silver and gone long and the competing silver shorts are nearly bankrupt. The Fed had to inject $17 & $34 billion into the Repo market in the last week. The COMEX has raised silver margin requirements twice in the last week given the fact that their physical inventory is so low against the paper claims against it. IMO the PM market has long, strong legs.
The US’s rate of printing/deficit spending has increased dramatically under Trump and the world is abandoning the dollar at a rate that Mish does not think is important.
Personally, I think that another US debt downgrade is in order and the mining stocks should see their dividends go up to attractive levels given their 200% margin increases against relatively fixed costs. The big profitable miners like AEM, NEM, PAAS etc hav paid down most of their debt and have cash piling up like crazy.
Mining companies also have their assets in the ground valued at around $20 for silver and $1,500 for gold. Their net asset values are dramatically higher than they were before gold started its recent rise in value.
Trumps chaotic policies and constant threats of war are definitely good for the PM market.
No. It will be the worst year since 1929. Keep dreaming. You’re printing illegal dollars and buying the entire galaxy with it. Yes, 8 billion humans root for you. But humans don’t rule the universe. You will learn.
An important additional one. USA is going to fight a lot of Wars.Venezuela and perhaps Denmark for Greenland. Iran and in Africa.China may use this opportunity to take Taipei.
No one is stepping up to defend Venezuela (I’m surprised), Greenland is easy to take and no one would be able to defend it.
Mexico and Canada will not roll over and their populations will offer significant resistance on a social scale but their governments are basically defenseless.
Mish says…#7: Trump persuades Russia and Ukraine to accept a peace deal.
I agree in a reverse sort of way. Because Russia is winning this war it seems Putin is making the terms and now Trump and Ukraine and Nato have to decide if they will finally accept –The Russian terms. Peace to All.
The war will continue. Putin being exposed for the dictator he is. No troops yet but more sophisticated fighting weapons deployed to Ukraine makes Russia’s life difficult.
Oh FFS Foggy Bottom dude.
Putin is not a dictator.
But you are right the war will continue.
And Mish is dead wrong that Trump will persuade Russia to accept anything other than what Russia already stated as their terms in June 2024.
Thanks Vlad, fascinating insight
👆🏻 Phil in
CTLangleyRight. There will be no peace deal, only capitulation.
The Americans will never step up with a peace treaty that Congress will ratify, meaning any “deal” is just subterfuge. American generals are running this war from Wiesbaden with American ISR fully involved, terrorist operations, full production of all of NATO engaged; Trump wants Greenland to hem in Russia and China even more, and they continually chatter about getting all their “allies” more involved, burden-sharing, specialization of labor, etc. etc. There is no possibility that the USA/NATO will give up their long term goal of destroying and balkanizing Russia.
The last operation, targeting Putin himself, has angered Russia more than any of the previous terrorist incidents (with far worse results), because decapitating the people you are negotiating with (Perfidy, waving the white flag and talking peace as a ruse) has become the modus operandi of this administration. They did it in Lebanon, they did it in Doha, they did it with the Iranian negotiating team, and now they have tried it again with Putin.
Imo as long as there is a large number of retires in the system needing goods and services unemployment will be lower than it normally would be. All things considered.
As the k shaped economy goes. I would like to see who the “wealthy” are job wise and what percent of the population they are. Imo part of the spending holding up the economy are the retired boomers with a combination of their 401 k and assets they inherited from parents. Spending it like there is no tomorrow. If the stock market tanks it may put an end to some of that.
Ai on social media is making us dummer. It has its place. Think in areas like legal assistants. Instead of a firm having three they will use ai to search and keep one in verify info.
Trump will claim a peace deal in Ukraine but it wont be his peace plan. The end will come when Ukraine falls or its drug out like Afghanistan and russia withdraws.
I predict : A lot of those boomer Retiree’s are going to be on the breadline. No disposable funds other than essentials. They’ll go through their savings and then sell their assets and live off the takings. Nothing left to hand down to their heirs.
Inflation is already tearing up those on fixed incomes.
#9,namely Recession will be avoided by Wars, starting with Venezuela.
“But as long as the stock market stays elevated, the wealthy will keep spending.”
Keeping the stock market elevated regardless of what it takes from the fed, treasury, corporations, or whoever is now a given. We can’t even afford to let it go sideways. It must go up, up, up…
I agree with most of MISH’s predictions but don’t think SCOTUS will require tariff refunds. Too messy.
Agree – but the other side of this is that they are unlikely to preclude them either. This shifts things back to lower courts and/or congress to resolve. Whichever way the SCOTUS ruling isn’t the end of it.
Also Donnie is quite likely to cook up some other scheme that by-passes the letter of the ruling if not the intent. So the interesting thing will be how SCOTUS words the rulling – which will indicate how much they want to tie him up.
Well done. Thanks Mish.
My 2026 Predictions
The US economy will continue to strain under Trump’s tariffs and trade wars. Growth will also be hampered by a lack of enough new electricity generation and grid bottlenecks.
The global economy will continue to grow in spite of a possible US recession. Demand for oil will grow by 1 million barrels per day in 2026 to over 105 mbpd, continuing the 50-year trend of 1 mbpd increases. Demand for natural gas will grow even faster than oil demand. Supply of both oil and gas remains adequate to meet growing demand in 2026, but 2027 looks tight. A continuing shortage of gas turbines will limit natural gas use for electricity production. Most new electricity generation will continue to be from solar and wind.
The electrification of the world economy will continue. China will continue to lead in electrification because they are adding 10 times more new electricity generation per year than the US. They also dominate in many areas of electrification including solar, wind, batteries, magnets, rare earths, chip manufacturing, evs, high speed rail, grid expansion, etc.
The US will struggle to keep up with China in all those areas. Without a lot of new electricity generation and the ability to get it to where it is needed, we will fall further behind in this race to electrify. We will have to build more data centers in countries that can provide us with adequate cheap power.
As global use of fossil fuels continues to increase, so will our emissions. Atmospheric CO2 levels will keep increasing. 2026 will be the fourth straight year that average global temperatures exceed 1.4C above pre-industrial levels. The cooling effect of a La Nina will help keep 2026 from being the hottest year in our lifetime. The costs to our economy will continue to increase.
As always, in 2026, I will look to take advantage of the opportunities that arise from these events.
Best wishes to all in 2026!
100% – and kicking myself for not cashing in on the recent NG spike.
Your alarmist climate panic is utter non sense. There is no objective prooves that human activities are causing a major increase in temperature. Climate is near the coldest in 500 million years.
“There is no objective prooves that human activities are causing a major increase in temperature.”
Interesting. Perhaps you can enlighten me then. Science clearly explains that man’s emissions of greenhouse gasses have increased global temperatures by 1.4C since 1880.
Since you seem to disagree with the science, what do you think has caused this global temperature increase?
I look forward to your reply.
You are a patient man!
Thanks. But I wasn’t really expecting a scientific reply.
Over the last 200 years, scientists have worked hard to figure out the entire 4.5 billion year climate history of the earth. When it was hot, when it was cold, and why. It’s a fascinating topic. And now, scientists can tell us why it is mankind that is causing the planet to warm recently, in spite of the natural cooling cycle that we have been in for the last 6000 to 8000 years.
One scientific discovery I particularly like was how Milutin Milankovitch figured out earth’s natural warming and cooling climate cycles, that occurred regularly every forty two thousand and hundred thousand years, that were caused by orbital variations. Scientists can trace these cycles back over the last million years. Which is the most relevant time period to look at, since that is the time period which includes human history.
All reasonable predictions except of course #7, which I rate at 0% possibility as I have been doing here since January 2025 when everybody was sure that Trump would “negotiate peace” between NATO and Russia in Ukraine.
This is my original comment, posted here 1 year ago:
The anglo-euro-NATO war to Russia in Ukraine is coming to its natural end: capitulation of the extremist and illegitimate regime put in power by the Americans in 2014.
My wife, who is from the Donbas where we also have an apartment in one of its major cities, has a bottle of spumante ready.
The US-Russia negotiations will be around the new security architecture (basically a new Yalta) asked for by Putin for the last time in 2021, in the face of ever mounting NATO expansion and anglo-american “color revolutions” and destabilizing terrorist activities.
The US-Russia negotiations will not be about Ukraine, Trump is clearly positioning himself to be able to drop Ukraine like the used condom that it is and walk away nominally leaving this failed project to the deranged EUropeans and the even more deranged Brits, which is totally fine by Putin since today’s NATO, against a peer adversary, has proved to be a paper tiger, and NATO without the US is a wet paper tiger, and everybody of real consequence around the world now knows it.
All of Trump’s moves (Canada, Greenland, Ukraine, tariffs etc etc) show he is aware of the realities of the new “multipolar” world and of the failing USA and he is seeking to carve up and consolidate the best zone of influence possible for a much scaled down US and will reach some agreement with the other two (re)emerging super-powers: Russia and China.
And ,CIA a force to be reckoned with ,is fighting for Ukraine, even now!
THE CIA does not fight to win any wars for the amerikan people or amerikan treasury. ti’s all about the MICC C suites that they have a revolving door with installed in langley
This post seems to miss two things:
Totally get that the thoughts of the people in Donbas before the war are misrepresented in Western media. However painting Putin’s regime as something to aspire to is bizarre.
You know jack shit about Ukraine, Ukrainians, Russia and Russians.
Search my past posts here to learn about the issues you mention and you know nothing about, I am not going to waste any more of my time educating disinformed, misinformed, brainwashed morons who think they know what’s happened and what’s happening in both Ukraine and Russia.
I also detail how and why exactly I KNOW what I am talking about.
I re-posted my comment from 12 months ago just “for the record”…
I am going to greatly enjoy what’s going to happen to the EU (of which I am a subject), to the UK and to the USA.
Russia and most of the “Ukraine” (or in other words the Russian Federation) haveinstead a great future ahead.
Lovely….and Happy New Year to you too.
Thanks and likewise.
But I am sure that mine will be ’cause I am moving (again and this time for good) to Russia 🙂
My wife and children are already there since the end of the summer, I am still in Italy to sell my properties and to figure out a way to take my money out of the dystopian, satanist, globalist dying monster which is the European Union.
Let’s hope you don’t fall out with Kommisar Putin and fall out of a thirteen story window.
Assuming by your username that you are a Brit: LMAO!!!!
In Perfidious Albion nowadays you can basically be arrested for breathing too hard.
It’s not by coincidence that George Orwell was from the UK.
Really
Let’s hope you don’t go on social media and misgender someone or point out what Pakistani rape gangs are doing to blonde-haired, blue-eyed British girls.
There’s no England, anymore.
watch adam curtis, “century of self” and “how russia faile at cmmunism and democracy”. you probably have seen the latter. free on youtube. the best documentarian.
You may have seen this already, but it shows how shocking is the EU’s reach against a non-EU citizen with zero due process simply for voicing unapproved opinions. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PXq89FryYzo
The EU is a totalitarian regime.
Maybe your kids end up fertilizing Ukraine’s fields like so many other young Russian men.
And maybe your LGBTQ-educated male kids will end up getting literally fucked by other men and your female ones will end up getting raped by black and brown “undocumented migrants” (or “resources” like we call that trash in Europe) like so many other native white Europeans already are today throughout the West.
Mick, you see what I mean..?
Or maybe they’ll just grow up safe and healthy with a high standard of living in a 1st world economy! What’s the average life expectancy for men now in Russia- is it below 60 yet? It certainly will be if they stay in Ukraine.
You’re worried about gays and people with darker skin than your own, but they’ll send your kids into a meat grinder while you’re raving about that dumb 19th century shit, LOL
“Or maybe they’ll just grow up safe and healthy living with a high standard of living in a 1st world economy!”
I take it you are not living in the West then..?
“What’s the average life expectancy for men now in Russia- is it below 60 yet?
It’s 67.7 for men and 74.5 for women at the moment and climbing for both sexes. What’s in your homecountry and most importantly what is the trend there?
Quantity is also not quality, that should go without saying…
But I am sure you too realize it.
“It certainly will be if they stay in Ukraine.”
Ukraine as we know it today has never existed but for a brief moment created by the Soviet Communists (many of them “Ukrainians”) and will soon go back to not existing.
Anyway, we are not moving to our apartment in the Donbas (which is, as you correctly imply, RUSSIA) but to “pre-2014” Russia, 5 hours south of Moscow, in a lovely single house with a lot of land on a river bank…
“You’re worried about gays and people with darker skin than your own, but they’ll send your kids into a meat grinder while you’re raving about that dumb 19th century shit, LOL”
You and yours are much closer to being sent to a meat grinder somewhere than I or my kids are but luckily you are not worried about any “dumb 19th century shit”… LMAO!
The life expectancy in my state is well over 80 for men, and our HDI is along the highest in the world, so quality of life is extremely high. Also we’re not afraid of gays or people with different skin tones where I live.
Meanwhile you are literally saying you’re bringing your children into a country that is currently using forced military conscription…I hardly think my own are at such risk. And how are things going for those unluckies being sent to Ukraine? https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/12/31/world/europe/russia-military-abuse-soldiers.html
“The life expectancy in my state is well over 80 for men”
NO, life expectancy for men in Connecticut is around 76 and DECLINING and that’s already above average for the US.
In Italy men live 81.7 years on average so, using your standards and your words: do you admit to Italy having a higher standard of living than the USA and Italy being more of a 1st world country than the USA?
Simple answer to a simple question please.
“Also we’re not afraid of days or people with different skin tones.”
And that’s one of the many reasons why you are FUCKED and you have no future.
“You are literally saying you’re bringing your children into a country that is currently using forced military conscription…”
Russia has forced military conscription only in the dystopian, disinformed, misinformed, brainwashed society you are living in.
Dude two seconds spent on a Google search reveals you’re lying about just about everything… Why do you bother?
“Yes, Russian conscripts have fought in Ukraine, despite initial promises from President Putin that they wouldn’t, with reports indicating they are often coerced into signing contracts or are sent in as poorly trained replacements for heavy casualties, facing severe conditions and high losses. The Kremlin claims to rely on volunteers, but evidence from media, rights groups, and captured soldiers points to conscripts being deployed to combat zones, sometimes with minimal training, and being used to fill gaps in manpower, leading to significant casualties and widespread concern among Russian families.
Key Details:
Initial Denial & Admission: Russia initially denied using conscripts but later admitted they were involved, attributing it to errors by commanding officers.
Coercion & Contracts: Many conscripts are reportedly pressured or coerced into signing lucrative, but often misleading, military contracts that allow commanders to deploy them to Ukraine indefinitely.
Poor Training & High Risk: Conscripts, often lacking adequate preparation, are frequently sent to the front lines, leading to high casualty rates, with some described as being “impaled” in offensives, according to military analysts.
Manpower Replacement: Conscripts and mobilized reservists are used to replace heavy losses, but their limited training diminishes overall Russian combat effectiveness.
Family Concerns: The deployment of conscripts has caused significant distress and anger among Russian families, who feel their sons were deceived and sent into a war they were promised to be shielded from.
In essence, while Russia officially fields professional contract soldiers, conscripts are undeniably part of the fighting force in Ukraine, often under exploitative circumstances, making them a significant, though often tragic, component of Russia’s war effort. ”
I’m surprised your wife is as lackadaisical with your kids lives as you are!
In other words, you have no answer.
Go on living your blissfully ignorant life in your little corner of the doomed shithole you are living in until reality hits you in the face.
You have amended and added to your answer but only in regard to the fictional “forced conscription” so here is my answer to that:
Russia has only recalled 300.000 REGISTERED RESERVISTS out of a pool of MILLIONS and has since enrolled ONLY VOLUNTARY FORCES because that has been proved to be more than enough as admitted even by Ukrainian sources.
Russia calling up reservists is no different from the US calling up the National Guards for your endless wars.
Keep beleaving the bullshit that you are fed by the powers that be and you will one day find yourself or your kids (if you have any) dying for the benefit of your oligarchs as countless Americans have been doing since the birth of your country which, it will never be stressed enough, has basically ALWAYS BEEN AT CONSTANT WAR SINCE ITS FOUNDATION.
“I’m surprised your wife is as lackadaisical with your kids lives as you are”
My wife lives in the real world, not in the fantasy world retarded morons like you live in.
Meat grinder, huh?
And what do you call Iraq 2 and Afghanistan?
How many Americans died in those wars combined? And now do Russia in Ukraine. Notice a difference? That’s why Russia has to use forced conscription, sending prisoners into combat, sending disabled people into combat, begging Norks for help, etc etc.
Do you teach your kids anger like this. I pity them.
I just hope that you don’t have kids, like is increasingly the norm nowadays pretty much everywhere “civilized” (including Russia BTW).
agree. i spent time in Russia in the 90s doing business with my pals who had defected in the 70s and 80s. oligarch as a client of mine too. i agree with you. i am no Russian fan nor fan of any empire. but i like to face reality. you nail it. i also happen to have been back in brooklyn for holiday and spent christmas day at brighton beach Banya. i know scores of russians and ukrainians. YOU are the most correct on this blog about that old empire. i happen to hail and have passport from Italia. i still am partial to the Roman empire both eastern and western. long live pax dumbfuckistan my real homeland, right here in the good ole dying empire in USA. thank heavens there are a nation of humans underneath the empires that just keep on keeping on. eating and fucking and doing human stuff like producing food and things. from china to russia to usa and EU…………..and all places on planet. anthropology 101
You could be correct, however I’m downvoting you for taking pleasure re: bad things happening to the EU/UK/USA. Personally I think it’s horrible re: what could befall much of the West. It’s particularly not in Russia’s interest that terrible things happen to the US however. Many of our elites appeared to revel in the end of the Cold War and some took advantage and tried to carve up Russia. I don’t begrudge someone for feeling bitter if they went through that. But straight up we have some crazy mofos in charge with worse in the wings if things fall apart. Aiming to live in Russia, you should hope that we get our shit in order before it goes truly nuclear.
One of the many things I learned as an expat who has lived and worked all over the world for 15 years is that each and every country has, in the medium to long term, the government it deserves.
“Aiming to live in Russia, you should hope that we get our shit in order before it goes truly nuclear.”
What does that have anything to do with living in Russia specifically? If a nuclear WWIII happens we are all fucked wherever we live and I may actually have a better chance of surviving it in Russia than anybody else in the EU/UK/USA.
Russia is THE nuclear superpower of the world.
My guess is a bot.
There is none so blind as he who will not see. You can “teach” all you like but it’s the learning which counts.
I’m intrigued as to the support for the war’s continuation. I suppose the old “follow the money” applies. Life and morale mean nothing in the pursuit of wealth and power.
People like Jon L have no idea of the world around them and believe the west is good and therefore always right.
Remember The Balkans,Iraq,Libya,Syria?
Yes totally shameless on the side of the West. At least Iraq and Libya. The Balkans and Syria are shamefull as well but a bit more nuanced.
It’s not bizarre, it’s russian trolls
Nice try at a straw man. He never painted “Putin’s regime” as something to aspire to. Try harder. This isn’t the USA Today comments section. People aren’t as likely to fall for your tricks as you seem to be assuming.
Thanks Vlad, fascinating
The U.S. can’t negotiate a deal with Russia on Ukraine without admitting that the U.S. has been using Ukraine as a weapon against Russia since right after WWII, that they’ve followed Brzezinski’s plan to destroy Russia using Ukraine, that they instigated the 2014 coup, that they’d hoped to turn the Black Sea into a “NATO lake” and seize Sevastopol, that they ignored all Russian entreaties (especially Dec 2021) knowingly sentencing Ukraine to war with Russia, sent Boris Johnson to kill the almost-finished peace deal in April 2022 and that Americans have been dying in Ukraine while operating Patriot batteries and targeting HIMARS.
Hell, we won’t even admit we blew up Nordstream. You can’t negotiate peace when you’re so thoroughly full of shit.
“The U.S. can’t negotiate a deal with Russia on Ukraine without admitting that […]”
And that’s one of the many reasons why, like I wrote, they are not going to.
All of these ridicolous negotiations and ludicrous “peace plans” are just Clown World public theater.
aye aye
bully bully
#7. Nope. Putin went to war to make the Ukraine a vassal state. Zelenskiy will never agree to that. Peace would mean defeat for Putin, which he can never allow.
#9. I think a recession is unlikely, at least what we traditionally view as a recession. I can see unemployment going up, but I think growth will continue to be positive though slower than it has been.
If Mish is correct about long and shallow, then the recession call will be made late. Maybe 2027. So, you might both be correct.
Minsk 1,Minsk 2 and Istanbul 2022 when Boris Johnson interfered, show your claims wrong. CIA ,which is entrenched in Kiev, and the UK will be blocking peace .
BINGO WE HAVE A WINNER. the MICC, the original acronym need never ending wars. those C suite twats in CT have been at this for centuries.
Using The Ukraine tells us you know nothing about Ukraine. Any thing after that right indicates right or wrong you are babbling.
My fearless prediction–Trump resigns around midterms citing health issues. Until then, he will use every shady method at his disposal to increase his wealth. Vance will play the role of Gerald Ford going forward.
Quite possible combined with pardons galore.
When has a president ever resigned over health issues? Never.
They will cover up any health problems. That’s how it’s done in DC.
He will resign to avoid a successful impeachment.
There will never be a 2/3 vote in the Senate to make him lose the Presidency. He will be impeached several times if the House wins in 2026. I think this will hurt the Dems in the 2028 election as they won’t do anything for the American people to get inflation down. They will be the party of impeachers.
i can see Trump being the king behind the throne of JD for a long long time. if the Rs take the house in 2028 he could be speaker of house, too. long live pax dumbfuckistan. crumbling empire 101. an old story played out in history
Trump will never resign. I think there is a good possibility he dies during his presidency making Vance President. Vance has a good chance of staying President if he continues Trumps good decisions and stops the insanity of the bad ones.
Unless trump dies in office vance will never be POTUS.
a probable scenario, in order to escape the inevitable economic depression that will have been caused in part by his idiotic policies (tariffs).
I respect Mish going in record. The predictions are reasonable. I think there’s a potential for big cascading losses in AI, but the timeline could be longer than a year because the terms of the deals being made are over several years, and because there is so much vested interest in extending and pretending when the numbers are so big.
more TACO
Trump Delays New Tariff Hike on Furniture, Kitchen Cabinets
https://archive.is/U3YmY#selection-1163.0-1163.59
The DOJ picked the wrong argument regarding birthright citizenship. Instead of wordsmithing, the argument should have focused on the legal concept that ill gotten gains (citizenship for a child) from a crime (parents’ illegal entry into the country) must be returned / relinquished.
Interest rates will remain relatively elevated as the 60 year cycle advances through its remaining 14 years. The 1st “18” month cycle of the present 54 month cycle is due to “bottom” in late March / Early April 2026. The new “18” month cycle is expected rally.
We’ll have an outright depression starting in 2026. The start of the DotCom Bubble popping to the end of the housing bubble recession was a WAVE 4 flat. WAVE 5 has been going for 17-18 years. Smaller Wave 5 and wave 5 look like ending diagonals that should complete in the following weeks. Sharp reversal ahead with initial support near COVID lows.
Naturally the unemployment rate will go up in a recession / depression. Layoff announcements (WARN) in late 2025 will drive unemployment numbers higher early in 2026.
We don’t punish the child for the sins of the father, not in the US anyway.
We should. If you come here illegally – even if by birth you should receive NO benefits from the US (i.e. housing, healthcare, food stamps, etc.)
Laura I bet you are a real joy to have at holiday parties. I’d also bet that you are a “good” christian.
but…but…the reparations ? social justice ?
“Instead of wordsmithing, the argument should have focused on the legal concept that ill gotten gains (citizenship for a child) from a crime (parents’ illegal entry into the country) must be returned / relinquished.”
Disagree. The Supreme Court should follow both the language of the Constitution and historical practice. Historical practice providing some sense of what the authors intended. Anything else and your just allowing people to find arguments to force their views on others. If you don’t like birthright citizenship, expect Donald Trump to have Congress create an amendment to the Constitution.
Irrelevant
I am more confident of birthright citizenship that anything else
Unfortunately, this is true. A Constitutional Amendment is the best way to address this issue once and for all.
Even though only mentioned in point #9, I believe you place too much negative impact on the deportation issue for two reasons. First, deportations are not on par with deportations of recent administrations and I do not recall deleterious reports to the economic situation as a result: local disruptions, yes; but not the economy on whole. You cite meat packing and agriculture as examples many times, but machinery has replaced many menial jobs in both. My friend farms a dry land family farm of 11,000 planted acres with his family of parents and 3 adult children during planting and harvest. His father farmed about 2,000 of those same acres with himself and a crew of 7 or 8, mostly family, at planting and harvest. A meat packing company in Nebraska was raided by ICE basically arresting half or more of the employees. Two days after, the company had applications to more than cover all the vacated jobs at $18 per hour.
https://infographicsite.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/deportations-under-us-presidents-statistics-infographic.png
I was unable to relocate the article that identified the rehire situation
Major immigration in the past consisted of people who wanted an opportunity to contribute to the American society, and they wanted to assimilate into our culture with the result being a better life for themselves and their families. Many if not most are now entering the country for the free benefits and politicians are bending over backwards to provide them everything for a lifestyle better than many American families; look no further than free luxury hotel rooms in major cities. It gets worse if one considers the fraud in Minneapolis and now New York. From Congressional testimony: “Using the National Academies’ estimate of immigrants’ net fiscal impact by education level, we estimate that the lifetime fiscal drain (taxes paid minus costs) for each illegal immigrant is about $68,000, although this estimate comes with some caveats.”
https://www.congress.gov/118/meeting/house/116727/witnesses/HHRG-118-JU01-Wstate-CamarotaS-20240111.pdf
You mention the unseen economic effects (Bastiat’s broken window writings) in a recent post. I maintain there are unseen effects or costs of having the cheap labor. Taxpayers pay education service, road water sewer park and other infrastructure cost and service, police, fire, safety, health and many more services are burdened with the folks providing cheap labor. I doubt paying less for domestic services, childcare, construction labor etc. covers the unseen taxpayer burden
Mish’s predictions are reasonable. I predict more inflation given the excess demand pumped into the economy by Trump’s big, beautiful bill. The government data will continue to mislead us into believing we are doing well when the reality is different. Consequently, the Republicans will be swamped in midterm elections and socialism will be on the way. A presidential ticket containing AOC and maybe a Mandani figure is possible.
Ahh, we tried that over-correction to the left in the UK (Corbyn) – didn’t end well.
That simply proves that human nature is a constant.
All sounds like reasonable bets.
I think you missed out the possibility of “electoral engineering” aka “procedural disenfranchisement” as Trump does all he can to skew or cast doubt on the mid term results.
Ukraine probability a bit high (as it will not end until Putin either wins or is put under pressure).
Also no mention of China and Taiwan. Not an invasion but a rolling back of commitment from the US. Taiwan will feel thrown under the bus.
Also not a key single event but I think the continued boiling of the frog in relation to control over the media agenda, implicit pressure on law makers and supression of dissent will continue. Watch out for democracy and freedom of speech index falls this year.
No Taiwan issue this year.
But good points.
Taiwan should be thrown under the bus.
How would #7 come about? Zelensky’s holiday wish was for an early Putin death, and Russia is now poised for significant retaliation (possibly with Oreshnik) for an attempt on one of Putin’s residences. My prediction: 2026 is when we see the final collapse of the Ukraine army as a cohesive entity. I expect Russian forces to be all along the Dnieper and threatening to enter Odessa by the end of spring.
The Russians didn’t even produce any wreckage from the supposed wave of 91 drones that supposedly were attacking one of Putin’s many palaces. No video, no alarms heard by the Russians nearby. Nothing.
One-sided take by a Russian bit.
Russia has indeed published media showing drone wreckage, along with radar trajectories. We’re not in a position to say for sure what is true, but the U.S./NATO has all the receipts as well re: what was or was not in the sky and there has been no official counterclaim other than from the untrustworthy UKR government.
It’s Russian “bot”, not “bit”. It just seems one-sided when you are losing the argument.
CIA has concluded Putin is lying (again.) https://nypost.com/2025/12/31/us-news/putin-claimed-ukraine-targeted-his-home-the-cia-says-it-never-happened/
Yeah, I’d trust the CIA, for sure. Larry Johnson (who used to be a CIA intel analyst) has some thoughts about that article : https://sonar21.com/yes-the-cia-is-lying-about-the-drone-attack-on-putin/
US satellites could see these drones. If they hadn’t flown, the US would let that fact come to light.
Nobody believes Russia, and they don’t have some kind of reserve that we’re not aware of. If they could meaningfully advance, they would have at some point in the last several years.
Why would they have?
The Russian have proven themselves to be a paper tiger. It will just be an on-going stalemate with a lot of unnecessary death. Putin can’t admit defeat or he will lose his position, and he isn’t smart enough to win.
This is SMO and NOT a full Military operation.Thats why NATO does NOT seem to be OPENLY involved but discreetly.In an open conflict Russia will fight differently.Thats why NATO has not even touched Kaliningrad. This shows NATO is afraid to get DIRECTLY involved but for some shouting.
Lots of ways. But the key thing I failed to mention but did consider is the EU stepped up to the plate with $100 billion in weapons.
The thing I did mention is land for peace is in play.
If Ukraine manages to cripple Russian oil with missiles that would put the finishing touches on everything.
Russia already won the war they wanted a few years ago. the russian speaking and sympathetic and leaning regions of ukraine. the rest is just a war of attrition until both sides exhaust themselves. the CIA moved in and caused this in 2014 under grandpa mccain and barry the bomber obama.
The EU didn’t step up with $100 billion in weapons. There aren’t that quantity of weapons to send that Ukraine could use right now (if they even had sufficiently trained numbers of men remaining to use them). They’ll receive a few billion here and there in weapons, some IOUs from the MIC, and the rest goes to prop up the finances a bit longer with billions skimmed off the top for Zelensky and other corrupt officials.
Re: territory, one of Russia’s firm conditions is that UKR has to remove its forces from all annexed oblasts which are officially recognized as Russian territory, but the latest “20 point peace plan” from Zelensky would establish a freeze along the current line of contact. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-reveals-20-point-peace-plan-draft-backed-by-ukraine-us/ . There are many other problems with his proposal, and I don’t see the gap closing in time.
IMO there’s no move that Ukraine can make that gets Russia to back down re: what they see as an existential security threat. They can try to disrupt Russian oil to get them to stop, but Russia will only escalate further.
I don’t think number 7 will happen because Zelensky is a dead man walking as soon as the conflict ends. This is why he must stop peace moves.
https://sputnikglobe.com/20260101/zelensky-knows-hes-toast-after-conflict-ends–analyst-1123398797.html
Others have noticed this too, as above. Ukraine will keep bleeding, EU will keep supporting and “experts” will continue to come up with ‘reasons” why Ukraine will win somehow. I feel very sorry for young Ukrainian men who are trapped, facing death and poverty, forbidden to run away – while oligarchs steal.
Are you sorry for the Russians who are dying as well?
Russian bot.
Wish for 2026 – less Russian propaganda on blogs.
Should qualify that – less Russian propaganda in responses to blogs. Do not want to imply Mish is anything other than honest.
Rather than claiming “Russian propaganda”, you can counter with better information if you have it. It’s better than simply losing the argument.
An opinion piece isn’t information. It’s hilarious to hear someone complain about Ukrainian oligarchs in the context of Russia. If you can’t smell the propaganda there, check your sniffer!
Yes. But their fate is quite different.
They volunteered, are honored by their society, and receive a lot of benefits.
The Ukrainian men on the other hand are being
Their families might get notification, will have to sue and wait a long time for any promised damages, and are very likely to be remembered as nothing but fertilizer.
A meaningful rise in unemployment seems incompatible with a growing labor shortage due to deportations and closed borders.
Tariffs will be largely going away for 2026, plus refunds will be stimulative.
The economy is set to run hot with real rates basically at zero and a stimulative fiscal stance. I’d expect steady employment and hot wages at the low end, feeding (along with health care) into CPI ticking back up towards 4%.