Michigan has swung from blue to red and back to blue again at the state level. Nate Silver now has MI back in the blue national column. Looking ahead….
A fascinating vas well as accurate video shows how, and more importantly why, Michigan has swung back and forth between red and blue in state and national elections.
Don’t mock the source this time. The video is well worth the 18 minutes time spent from beginning to end.
Important Ideas
- Unions
- Blue collar voters
- Suburban women
- Abortion
- Black voter enthusiasm
- Gerrymandering
Play the Video first. Read my thoughts second. You may or may not agree, and I prefer not to influence you.
My Take
Trump’s pick of J.D. Vance is a loser on the last four points. It’s questionable Vance helps on points one and two.
Vice presidential candidates generally don’t matter much but if the margin is tiny, one might be able to point to many things that influenced the election.
Independents may decide the election again, and J.D. Vance is a definite negative. The abortion issue is still a hot point in Michigan, and Vance was among the worst possible picks.
Trump’s Antics
Trump’s name calling suits the MAGA crowd but it is guaranteed to cost votes among suburban women and independents.
Trump just cannot control himself and it could easy cost him the election.
Trump Is Now Behind in Michigan
Nate Silver now has Harris leading in Michigan by 53.6 percent to 46.4 percent for Trump.
I am not particularly surprised by this.
Good News for Democrats: Throw the Polls Out, Start All Over
On July 21, I commented Good News for Democrats: Throw the Polls Out, Start All Over
At the time I made that comment, Nate Silver had Trump’s odds of winning at 72.8 percent to 26.9 percent for Biden with a 0.4 percent chance of no majority (recount of a rogue elector voting for Kennedy).
Trump Steps Down to the Occasion
On July 22, I commented In the Wake Biden’s Campaign Exit, Trump Steps Down to the Occasion
It took Trump just a few minutes after Biden dropped out of the presidential race to throw away votes.
Question of the Day
The following question is how many independents will see things:
“Would I rather have a jackass president who will get some things right, or would I rather take a chance on Harris?“
Let’s be honest about how Trump’s belittling sounds. If you don’t like the word “jackass” then feel free to substitute a word or phrase that suits you.
I do not know the answer to my question, and if you have an ounce of common sense, you will admit you don’t either.
Regardless, such statements will cost Trump votes.
Peak Trump?
Trump’s polling odds have peaked or soon will.
My statement implies nothing other than widespread belief that Harris-Anyone has a better shot than Biden-Harris.
Peak Trump
My assessment on July 22 was accurate.
Trump’s polling odds have peaked or soon will.
Was Nate Silver Wrong?
Please don’t tell me Nate Silver was wrong in 2016 because Trump won.
Yes, Silver was wrong, not because Trump won but because he never thought Trump had any chance of winning the nomination (Silver has admitted that as his biggest mistake), and because he had the final odds wrong (I am unsure if he has admitted that point or not).
Were it not for a last minute Comey bombshell, it is highly likely Trump would have lost.
But even if Silver got that right, he would have been wrong because he was too far off on reasonable margins of error.
You Don’t Know and No One Else Does Either
People tell me they “knew” Trump would win in 2016. The same people “knew” Trump would win in 2020.
Trump lost. Period. And stop the steal had nothing to do with it.
Trump made a poor decision to not get the vote out until election day, he had a major case of foot-in-mouth disease offending every sensible person, and abortion mattered.
Like Hillary, Trump blames everyone but himself. Trump lost the election because of Trump. If you disagree you have TDS.
And Now?
Stop the steal remains an idiotic message that only appeals to voters 100% guaranteed to vote for Trump anyway.
Ridiculous name calling costs Trump votes of independents and women.
Abortion is still in play although Trump is wisely trying to downplay his role. J.D. Vance will make that very difficult and it could cost Trump the state of Michigan.
I suspect the Polls for Harris are now overrated just as “peak Trump” polls. But we don’t know that.
Can Harris win back the youth vote and percentage margins that Biden lost?
Undoubtedly Harris has done some of that. So far it does not appear to be enough, but no one really knows that.
I still think this boils down to margins of young voters and Blacks.
J.D. Vance is likely a negative vs Governor Glenn Youngkin or Senator Marco Rubio. But in an act of self-adulation, Trump picked the candidate most like himself rather than purposely go after swing voters.
Have I upset everyone yet?
Looking Ahead
The big bonus in Trump’s favor that very few see coming is a fast weakening economy if not outright recession.
On July 26, I commented Expect the BLS to Revise Job Growth Down by 730,000 in 2023, More This Year
At the heart of these revisions is a horribly flawed birth-death model used by the BLS. My calculation closely matches an estimate by Bloomberg’s chief Economist.
In addition to the birth-death model, or perhaps explaining the birth-death model errors, small business employment is declining fast.
“All Hell Breaks Loose” In the Next Few Months as Recession Bites
On July 25, I commented “All Hell Breaks Loose” In the Next Few Months as Recession Bites
Two of us are still adamant that a recession has started. The other is Danielle DiMartino Booth, in her best video yet. Please take a look.
Small Business Employment Growth Is Now Negative
Earlier today I commented Small Business Employment Growth Is Now Negative (and What It Means)
ADP data shows year-over-year payroll growth is negative 88,000 for small corporations sized 20-49. Trends are negative in all but very large corporations.
Why Angry Renters Will Decide the Election, Take II
To understand the dynamics of the youth vote, please see Why Angry Renters Will Decide the Election, Take II
Roughly 36 percent of households rent. They watch home prices soar out of sight while wages do not keep up with rent.
Q: Who are the renters?
A: Young adults and blacks
My Base Political Case
My base political case is that the economy trumps Trump’s FIMD (Foot-in-Mouth Disease).
Of course, Kamala Harris has her own FIMD. So it’s really dueling FIMD.
With that, I likely have upset everyone but those who can’t stand either of them.
Regardless, “It’s Still the Economy, Stupid!”
Trump needs, and I think he will get, an economy weakening enough to win.
Silver was spectacularly wrong in 2016 along with many other pollsters. I have read some of his non polling commentary, and he shows weakness in his knowledge of statistics. For example he seems not to be aware of the ergodic assumption. Moreover it’s much too soon to take the polls seriously. Wait until about the second week in October. The response rates are so low these days, I find it hard to take any of them seriously. I do agree with Mish that the economy will be one of the main drivers of the election. People know that prices are way up. The government can’t lie their way out of this one. I worked for one of the government statistics mills in DC and yes they do manipulate data and ignore you when you point out errors. Moreover with some exceptions the staff is incompetent.
What’s interesting about Trump’s name calling is that this is the most crude society in my 40+ years. Why are people so sensitive to name calling while at the same time name calling using just absolutely horrible language. Whether it is online behavior or just normal conversation, our society is horribly crude, but also sensitive………. Makes me think it isn’t the name calling but the name of the one doing the name calling.
The country is ran by crude, stupid brutes and gangstersand smarmt middlebrows cheering them on. All limited to single syllable grunts. Fitting in with that crowd, to the point of being one oneself, is now what is required to “get ahead.”
It would be an awful lot more surprising if such a societal makeup resulted in anything other than vulgar crudeness,
STILL writing in RFK Jr. in CT this Nov. If I’ve got a civic duty as a taxpayer to vote, well, there’s no way I’m rewarding the system for forcing kakistocracy upon us to legitimize the massive theft of resources by entrenched interests.
Yes, not voting is an option, but since “None of the Above” was abolished once it became the favorite vote of thinking people, there are alternatives to “THIS is the most important election in our history! Failing here means the end of America!”
Missing is the brainwashing factor. A seemingly reliable source repeats the message often enough that people are conditioned to think the same as the message. It is even easier if there is confirmation bias to begin with. Gerrymandering is a problem; but so is media bias.
Trump’s ability to turn off Michigan college-educated white women is a good example of where the US is headed. No one with a brain likes a loud-mouthed egotist. Every time Trump called a name, he lost 1000 voters.
It gets worse. Any college student since 2005 has been exposed to liberal thinking in nearly every class. By 2005, it was difficult to find a conservative academic. By Obama, it was next to impossible. Liberal brainwashing was strongest in education, liberal arts, and law; less so in engineering and business. Nowadays, your kids are brainwashed, beginning in kindergarten. They are conditioned to think by the TV they watch, the books they read, the subjects studied, and teacher bias. Boys, in particular, learn to keep their mouths shut in class, The alternative is ritalin.
Remember, you get the government you deserve.
Is the islamic vote only just a Dearborn issue or is that state wide?
Islam doesnt do he/she and LBGTQABCDEFGHIJKLMNOP
Rashida Tla’ib & Il’han Omar do. They are perfectly happy letting the Christian enemy kill itself with this garbage, while securing themselves permanent entrenched power…
Turns out people don’t want to vote for a weirdo that was buddies with Jeffery Epstein.
Who could have seen it coming?
Wwre you conditioned to use the word weird?
Dems think the winning strategy for comatose candidates is to hide them in the basement. In 2020, they were right. Not sure the same strategy works today, but can’t blame them for going back to the well.
US politics is a bit like WWE from the 90s. You got your heels, your good guys, it’s all a show, the snacks are 10x what they should cost and it’s all choreographed.
Perhaps I am wrong, but it seems that the people on this website are mostly male. Why do you think that is? And, where are the women blogging?
Facebook, instagram, telegramme, etc.
US politics is a bit like WWE from the 90s. You got your heels, your good guys
That was the 80s, but you are right about US politics being a bit like WWE from the 90s — when there were ONLY bad guys and you had to pick which total scumbag was your favorite violent backstabbing cheating lying villain.
Woodward Avenue Dream Cruise Saturday August 17.
Home – Woodward Dream Cruise
See it before we are all dead from “climate change”.
In the Michigan video – the clips of Trump campaigning in 2016 are so striking. He was a real political player back then.
In stark contrast to now.
we get distracted on the person/personality. The enemy is both parties, both dangerous, the Dems more-so. One candidate is hardcore party loyalist, the Dems focus on party first, loyalist is always their nominee. Trump is not a party Loyalist, so is enemy of both parties. That’s one good reason to support him right there.
All I care about are the Names he calls people. I do not vote, so I lean towards stupidity as my base model for Presidential Elections.
The names are entertaining. That is all elections are about.
Entertainment value is the level of FANTASY that they share with us. Fantasy promises.
I will take name calling any time. It means nothing. Nothing arises from Voting.
Dearborn … First heard about the Muslim population in a Mitch Rapp book … Uncle Joe is not very popular in those quarters. Auntie Kammy (or is it Kommy) no so much either.
Why would unions vote for a party flooding the country with illegal alien workers on a cosmic scale? Why would suburban women vote for a party sexualizing their children and soft on crime? I have no idea. Guess we will find out together and also find out if Nate shuts down his site like he did in 2016 before the election was officially called for Trump and vanished for a long time.
Other than the left will bail out their union pension funds and push for wages and conditions–regardless of the effect on national competitiveness.
Brainwashing has mind control as its end goal. The left is better at it. Watch Sesame Street to see the entry level. Look at your kids’ books. Watch the mass media. Remember the national average IQ is 100. For certain voting blocks the average is 85.
What policy proposals does either candidate have for “angry renters”?
Biden had rent control. I assume Harris will push that one soon.
As Nixon said, price controls don’t work, but voters won’t realize it until after the election.
Drill baby drill. If you bring down gas/energy prices other things will cost less money which may include rent.
Personally, I’ve excluded the most recent Bloomberg/MorningConsult poll from my election modeling. D+12 in MI & R+4 in Pennsylvania is just… not usable data.
Most of the polls touted by the press are the result of oversampling of Democrats, and therefore are little more than predictive programming.
How do you or I know what’s an “oversample?” Only in retrospect.
Intel is fully committed to building AI chips foundries in the US. Meanwhile Intel is producing “Intel Inside” computer chips. Intel got huge subsidies from the US gov, but that’s not good enough. Intel isn’t profitable enough to finance these foundries. Intel ceo might resort to layoffs in the thousands and spin a few units to free cashflow. When these foundries will be ready Intel will need gov protection from TSM and China.
Subsidies had so many strings attached (unions, DEI, childcare requiring college degree, living wages, etc), Intel, like Boeing, will become a practical branch of the gov’t.
5) For years Kamala Harris was part of SF Jewish/Indian mafia, but in the 2019 debate she was a little black girl in a bus from Louisiana Parish. Biden picked her up bc she was abused little black girl.
7) The ME war is a gift for Trump.
8) She has 100 days to get on people nerves. People can become allergic to her fast, more than Hillary.
3) Suburban women are moms.
Moms that go shopping without an open checkbook.
Also Moms that do not like cheating husbands or politicos that lie right to their faces and play then for dupes.
Something about that wraith of a Woman scorned would be at play here.
Hillary in 2016 lot of personal baggage with slick Willy the Husband.
Dems and a lot of analysts keep trying to make this election all about Trump.
His personality can be irksome. That is not what will decide this election.
There are much bigger issues.
Stop thinking like a male. You see the world differently and value things in different ways. Trump’s manner is costing him votes all over.
When people can not pay their Bills it is about substance of policy.
People are angry and looking for someone who gets things done.
Maybe the under thirty crowd is comprised of flakes, but the over thirty crowd has been around Town.
That includes Woman who are looking for security in whatever form it takes. Local elections by me are running adds of substance about real issues. It is noticeable as to which party is choosing Fluff and which party is choosing to focus on the things that affect everyday life.
Woman have had enough of the Flake politicians.
This election is not going to be decided by Hollywood but by real people.
Biden picked her because he was told to. While Kamala might get on your nerves, most voters really don’t care, or listen to what is said. Biden lasted 4 years, yet anyone thinking person should have noticed the deterioration of his faculties. They didn’t care.
The Horror… The Horror …
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/why-colonel-kurtz-is-important
What is a mystery, for the n-th time around, is that how is it possible that a country of over 300 million people is able to only produce such candidates? If the same principle was applied to the Olympics, I’m sure the USA would win no medals.
“The People” don’t get to decide on whom to vote for in most cases. The System (ie. Government Party in Control at the time) decides who to push for the nominees, and then based on pushback they may maneuver a tad to fit the desire to a point, but who they wish for will be there in some form.
This is a reason they can’t stand Trump! He doesn’t conform or even come close to the Agenda and Narrative that the Dems, in control for awhile now, have been pushing for. He is “The Enemy” of the real and very powerful deep state.
Unfortunately for them, He is also the Darling of the “Conservative Movement”, and “America First” Agenda. Both of which, are extremely powerful movements in their own right as well!
Which party will succeed, will probably be determined by the Candidates they put up (Biden & Harris are a wrecking ball to the Dems) for office, and what they have done and accomplished for the majority of voters, I see a lot, for the people who push for more conservative principles and narratives, and they are strengthening by the Day!
The Borrow until your broke crowd, are on the losing side of this equation. Also, giving Americans hopes and dreams away to illegals is not going over so well. Tent cities are OK, until you’re in one, or surrounded by them, and then you realize very quickly, how bad they are for our country and its citizens. Once the people as a whole really catch on to what’s occurring under there collective noses, they may switch in mass, and that’s what appears to be taking place in many locations, and many big cities.
The American Populous is getting tired of being placed last on the list of who our Government gives a sh&# about… there will be push back and big at some point, and that time looks to be 2025 IMHO!
The only time ‘the people’ (i.e. registered D voters) were able to select Kamala to be the nominee she was unceremoniously dumped and her campaign ended almost as quickly as it started.
Another time ‘the people’ were able to select Joseph to be the nominee he was unceremoniously dumped and his campaign ended, albeit not quite as quickly:
https://time.com/5636715/biden-1988-presidential-campaign/
Remember, you are dealing with sheep, here. They will forget by mid August.
The simple answer, you get the government you deserve.
If anything, they will ignore the economy and immigration, and make the election about abortion and “tolerance’ (i.e., Woke ideals).
Look at Real Clear Politics and its polling. Biden was up by 6% in 31 July 2020 in Pennsylvania, and won the state with 50% versus Trump 48.8% and they did not have a viable Green Party candidate in 2020 which benefited Biden Pennsylvania.
Will 2024 have a Green Party candidate and RFK jr on the ticket in Pennsylvania, if not, that will help Harris a lot.
You certainly didn’t offend me Mish. But then, I don’t vote and I don’t care who wins.
I wonder how much bigger the riots will be if Trump loses again?
Same here. Couldn’t give to shits who wins. The sun will come up the day after the election and life will go on.
I’m sure this next tid bit will piss a few people off….
I do hope that the sycophants on both sides of aisle can muster some self restraint and not flip out and riot because thier chosen cult leader didn’t get elected. To see adults act like kids who didn’t get thier way is truly mind boggling to me. So much emotional energy pissed away on someone who doesn’t give two shits about them, it’s insanity in my view.
Only a small minority believes their leader gives a shit about them.
The 2 biggest reasons people get angry:
1) Money – Virtually everyone stands to be better off under 1 party or the other so they have a vested monetary interest in having their party come to power (ie middle class will get a lot poorer under Dems and their green madness as Mish has stated countless times). As a Canadian I can’t vote but I had a huge interest in Trump winning in 2016 because I would benefit from his tax cuts.
2) Losing/Sharing – I can’t prove this because there are no studies but it seems to me that the younger generations are increasingly angry about having to share power (ie sometimes the other side wins). My theory is that this is due to modern families increasingly being 1 child who has never had to learn to share (older people almost always grew up in 2+ kid families where they learned to share) so they get irrationally angry when they have to share and the 2nd part is that schools have for an entire generation not taught kids how to lose (ie everyone is a winner and gets a trophy syndrome) so they just can’t conceive of losing or know how to deal with failure.
Only a small minority huh? Why do candidates have rallies that are filled to the brim with rabid fans? Many of the attendees act like “Swifties” at a Taylor Swift concert.
The money thing you mentioned ties directly into believing their person cares and his/her philosophy will deliver and save them from “xyz”. It’s mindlessness. They don’t have a clue if it will work or not. If it doesn’t they will do what they always do, blame the other side for getting in the way of the agenda. In other words, they don’t live in reality (competing forces exist). They live in a sycophantic echo chamber where anyone outside is the devil incarnate.
It’s all a giant circle jerk.
I just want this country to be lead out of the desert of the insane left , to split the seas and lead us OUT !
I doubt there will be any significant rioting. If Harris wins, the Democrats will be better prepared for any potential violence, and I think many MAGA fans will be far more reluctant to cause any real mayhem, after watching so many Jan 6 insurrectionists get charged. Other than maybe Portland, Dems just are not good at rioting if Trump wins.
Important Ideas:
Unions > While the Dems do seem to rely heavily on them, this year, and definitely sooner rather than later, could be quite different, depending on how the total Members across the board, see and understand what took place with the EV coming of age (amongst others). They were/are going to be tossed aside, and slowly, but in big chunks, lose everything they once had. Replacements will be a shell of the Old Union Job, and then they lose, or will have Lost The Unions for good.
Blue collar voters > Generally go Republican as these have been a Conservative Lot on the whole. They may see their ranks swell from the increase in Independent Voters however.
Suburban women > A thorn for Republicans for quite sometime. The Dems have done a great job of tying them to issue long attractive to their party, and has led to an increase in support as a result. Could change if Abortion is no longer the Hot Button issue it has been in the past. I don’t think it is, and I think the Demsare crushing themselves with the right up until, and slightly after birth idea. That stole votes from themselves.
Abortion > I think it’s 50% / 50% for voting result purposes now,
Black voter enthusiasm > I think they are enthused, but for the Republicans, as the answer they have or had been looking for decades from the Dem party. They have finally given up waiting in large numbers, and growing by the day.
Gerrymandering > Been a KEY since its inception, and has been fought against by many, just as long. A sure way to make large swaths of votes in the largest election areas, helping to determine the election, in many cases. Both Party’s do it, and it should be banned IMHO!
I did Play the Video first. Read your thoughts second. I did and did not agree, and You did not influence me in any way.
> My (- Your) Take
– Trump’s pick of J.D. Vance is a loser on the last four points. It’s questionable Vance helps on points one and two. > I agree with 1 & 2, but lean helps. I agree with 3 & 4 as usual, but perhaps a little less than usual. I disagree with 5 totally, and feel 6 is irrelevant to most.
– Vice presidential candidates generally don’t matter much > Perhaps when they are Kamala, and hold potentially the worst rating by any VP in History, perhaps they Will, this time anyway…
– Trump’s Antics > I agree it’s an issue
– Question of the Day: (The following question is how many independents will see things):
“Would I rather have a jackass president who will get some things right, or would I rather take a chance on Harris?“
> No Way a Chance on Harris, over a known, acceptable, accomplished President from the past? Absolutely the Acceptable Accomplished one from the past.
– Let’s be honest about how Trump’s belittling sounds. If you don’t like the word “jackass” then feel free to substitute a word or phrase that suits you. > Childish
– I do not know the answer to my question, Regardless, such statements will cost Trump votes. > And also Cost Harris Votes as well.
Peak Trump?
– Trump’s polling odds have peaked or soon will. > No, He hasn’t even started spending money yet, as he was waiting for Biden to leave.
– My statement implies nothing other than widespread belief that Harris-Anyone has a better shot than Biden-Harris. > I can’t agree with that. Harris-Newsom would be at this point, as just 1 example.
– Trump made a poor decision to not get the vote out until Election Day > 100% Agree
– Stop the steal remains an idiotic message that only appeals to voters 100% guaranteed to vote for Trump anyway. > 100% Agree
– I still think this boils down to margins of young voters and Blacks. > I think that favors Trump then
– Have I upset everyone yet? > Not at all, but a pleasure to share a back and fourth withYou!
– Looking Ahead: The big bonus in Trump’s favor that very few see coming is a fast weakening economy if not outright recession. > 100% Agree, and feel we have been in one for quite sometime, but it’s been papered over. This will piss off many, that have not reached that conclusion on their own yet, and have to be told.
– At the heart of these revisions is a horribly flawed birth-death model used by the BLS > Been that way forever, so what’s changes? So have Revisions for that matter. One could conclude they are one and the same, meant to come/go together perhaps, for anAgenda and/or Manipulation perhaps?
To better understand U.S. politics:
Biden is still commander-in-chief and looks to be for another 6 months!
Can anyone tell me which voters Trump has lost since 2020?
I can’t name any. But I can name a few groups where Trump has gained support: Black men (and some women), Hispanics, and some Jews.
And dont discount Muslim voters in MI staying home over Gaza.
I’ll take a stab at this!
He lost all the republican voters who died from covid because they were anti-vax.
You got it backwards. Unvaxed are healthy and the data proves it.
Check out the NUMEROUS other countries that used the same vaxes as US that released info. ALL of them show The vax injuries and deaths. Website: naturalnews.com.
I had a co-worker who was severely damaged by the experimental vax. He will never work again and will most certainly die much younger. I have no idea if the vax was a net positive but without a doubt some were killed off by it.
Proportionally the deaths from Covid of Blacks and Hispanics was much higher than those of whites.
Even our diseases are racist!
Most of the “Covid” deaths were elderly. Their votes were often cast for them by Dems via mail-in ballots.
Nonsense. The elderly cast their own votes.
Yes, he did.
11,780 voters lost in the state of GA alone per King Chaos, shit-talker extraodinaire.
Simple, folks that see the things you say they see were like likely to vote blue anyway or sit it out. I can name 50 preposterous statements by b
Harris, Biden, Hillary, or the apologetic MSM. If you’ve managed to not be moved by them over the last 4 years’ worth along with bad policy, stating a recent comment by Trump or pointing to Vance convinced them to vote blue is silly–that was their leaning/desire all along.
How about just pointing out the complete failed policies 2021-2024, the incompetence and failures, the lies and corruption. Just listening to the secret service director’s testimony was so unsettling, it’s clear the fbi, doj, Cia, dhs, nsa, irs, pentagon, etc are now enemy combatants against America.
If folks are moved by the small stuff you mention they were looking for permission to continue their likely perpetual left-lever voting.
Supposedly abortion isn’t in the top 5 of issues. Of course, having the entire media-Hollywood-academia complex pushing Harris 110% for the next three months could change that.
If the margin of victory is 43,000 vote please tell me abortion doesn’t matter.
Every issue matters, but some issues matter more. Inflation, immigration, crime currently matter more. That could change.
C’mon Mish, at that low of a figure, for the Presidential Election? I can name countless issues that would apply too, and so could You! I would hope, that you could do better than that…
Any play on emotions tend to benefit D. Really wished the whole abortion thing would stay out of politics and keep itself in the medical & personal spaces. The R candidates who push their ideals on this touchy subject do their careers a disservice.
Mike, I know a snowball in hell would stand a better chance, but has anyone ever charted out how the whole thing could changed if the D had backed RFK instead? His voice might be tough to hear, but his thoughts do tend to be articulated in a reasonable manner. Something that is missing in spotlighted candidates, it seems.
Well, if abortion hadn’t been deemed to be legal two or three decades ago, the margin of error would have been swamped by a tide of Dem voters who were not aborted. The Rs really miss the big picture here.
Kamala’s polling odds have peaked or soon will.
Yes, as the MSM can downplay the issues against Her, but after that, there is nothing worth discussing concerning Her. So her campaign will have to be a losing explanation of what she didn’t do, why she didn’t do it, and how she is going to do it this time around…
Abigail Shrier has a brilliant article on RCP https://www.thefp.com/p/abigail-shrier-republicans-kamala explaining that Trump (and Republicans) should be targeting her proven leftist stances. Newt Gingrich also framed it well: San Francisco Radical. There is plenty of stuff to mine there without getting into the irrelevant and petty stuff about how she got into politics and how she became the Dems’ candidate. The talk about a coup or how it was antidemocratic to crown her will obviously be negated if she wins – which is looking more likely if Trump & Co can’t change their strategy ASAP.
This is another great column that I hope Susie Wiles digests: https://www.unz.com/article/trump-is-heading-for-defeat/
Willie Brown, nuff said…
When you can’t afford an Uber to the polls you don’t vote.
If abortion is so great Illinois Governor Fatso should open abortion clinics on the Illinois Tollway oases, would help tourism traffic.
Downstate we have billboards on the highway bridge welcoming people to Illinois to get “a medically safe abortion.” Your post might just happen.
Trump is an expert at bad-mouthing his opponents in a surly manner. It turns a lot of people off. He should expand on his platform and let Kamala respond. Name-calling for sound-bites or twitter (X) feeds is not a winning strategy. I just wish that Trump would keep his mouth shut at times. Not a fan of Vance as the VP pick. I was hoping that Tulsi would have been the pick to smooth out the ticket.
I still don’t understand why more Democrats aren’t mad that she was given the nomination rather than having to earn it. It means there hasn’t been a voted in Democrat candidate since Hilary in 2016 (Biden was given the nomination over Bernie in 2020 now Kamala in 2024) and if she wins it means she will get it again in 2028 baring a catastrophe which means it will be till 2032 that Democrats can actually chose a candidate. That would be 16 years!
I thought this was an excellent comparison by O’Leary (she’s America’s Justin Trudeau) because she has accomplished absolutely nothing.
https://canoe.com/entertainment/celebrity/nobody-cared-shark-tank-star-kevin-oleary-warns-kamala-harris-is-americas-justin-trudeau/wcm/52de0697-6f32-4828-936b-ec66d7efe088
Accomplishing nothing hasn’t stopped Trudeau from winning reelection. And he’s as insipid as Harris.
Your 1st sentence declares loudly why you are not a Democrat.
The dems have to pick their candidate in a back room b/c the Identity Politics that defines the Dem party would result in mayhem if they had an actual primary where the various groups fight over who’s the biggest victim in public for all the world to see.
The last thing the DNC wants is the young, white, Left wing of the party throw a tantrum on the debate stage and when one group wins the Victim Olympics there is a good chance that other groups stay home on election day.
Did Hillary actually beat Sanders in 2016? (DNC leadership wanted Hillary … ref: wikileaks emails)
Last real race was 2008: Obama v Hillary (2012 was a coronation).
RNC tries to do same thing but less competent (holding Regan back in 1976).
Because both parties do exactly the same thing in most primaries. Did Republicans really have a choice other than voting for Trump? No, because the field quickly gets cleared after just a handful of states have voted if not before. As Mish stated before, many Dems did not want Biden to run again, but effectively there was no alternative in the primaries as the field had been cleared of everyone except for fringe candidates. Same for Trump.
You’re mostly correct here, hope you’re wrong about Vance. But the steal and hinky is still with us. In our county’s 2023 election a bunch of legal alien truck driver students stayed at local motels to get community college training for their commercial licenses. They had to get Oregon Drivers Licenses ANNNNNNNND all the students received election ballots at the motels where they stayed. OR Senator Ron Wyden says Oregon is the “Gold Standard” for vote by mail secure elections. <Sigh>
Do you have a source for that? That would be pretty high level of malpractice for a county to mail election ballots to unregistered voters at a motel.
“Source”? You mean like a news organization? lol Also, I think you’re mistaking the term “malpractice” with “practice”.
Voter registration when applying for drivers license….just check a box.
No proof of citizenship needed; just attestation.