There is only a 3 percent chance of a cut in July. September looks like a coin toss.
Two days ago I was laughing at reports of a surprise rate cut in July. Following the CPI report, not even September looks safe.
Meanwhile the rumor mill on replacing Fed chair Jerome Powell is running rampant.
Breaking Rumors
And From Pulte
“Pulte confident Powell will resign.”
Yeah, right.
Is the Next Fed Move a Cut?
I am not convinced the answer is yes, but currently I think so. Regardless, there is a wide range of outcomes including stagflation and an economic collapse.
If jobs stay firm and tariffs ignite inflation, the Fed might be temped to hike.
It’s important to understand no one knows what Trump will do with tariffs or how the market will react. That is how I see things and that is how the Fed sees it also.
Repeating my past statements: There should not be a Fed. But the one thing worse than an independent Fed is one controlled by the president.
Related Posts
2025-07-15: Year-Over-Year CPI Jumps 0.3 Percentage Points to 2.7 percent
Month-over-month and year-over-year the CPI rose 0.3 percent.
2025-07-15: Real Hourly Earnings of Private Workers Decline 0.1 Percent in June
Inflation-adjusted wages fell in June. A decline in hours worked makes it worse.
Rate cut odds for September should be 0%. He should be raising rates.
I haven’t seen anyone point out that Bill Pulte is a walking conflict of interest who should never have been confirmed to head FHFA. He’s still CEO of Pulte Homes, and stands to enrich himself from lower rates blowing another housing bubble.
Where are the Democrats to investigate him or at least hold a hearing?
Trump will fire Powell this weekend IMO, should put a fire under gold and silver
Hes desperate to get his child raping off the news cycle.
Maria ButtAroma is such a laughable tool. Fox has no credibility with all of its insane “Divide America” crap.
This is just a “Look over Here” deflection from the Epstein perversion of justice and transparency…
>
The Fed doesn’t control the rates anymore. The world is getting rid of the USD and the only way to save it is 20%+ rates just like the Rubble.
seems like a big to do about something that is inevitable under Trump: a Trump Fed Chair.
let’s say he doesn’t fire Powell. May 2026, Trump will appoint a new Fed Chair and whoever that is will do what Trump wants. probably we’ll be at ZIRP or close to it.
so all this drama about Powell is overblown because Trump will basically be fed chair no later than May 2026.
“September looks like a coin toss.”
For now . . . next move is still wait & see, then FFR goes higher, TACO goes ballistic & pushes Powell out via the Fed $2.5B refurb boondoggle.
Can you spell stagflation?
Q2 GDP is about 2.6% while inflation for Q2 will avg out to about 2.5%
How is that inflation, when they’re roughly equal?
I though stagflation meant low growth with high inflation.
That’s not where we are right now.
Right now, we’re pretty much at equilibrium.
Going out on a limb – if the US had to pay a “free market” set rate on it’s debt – then we would very soon have a world war.
Mish, I so agree with you with NOT HAVING A FED or a BODY whose sole function is to manipulate RATES for political reasons AND THE BULLSHIT CPI regime…..I could go on and on.
The biggest issue for the world is WOULD “FREE MARKET, NON-MANIPULATED CAPITALISM” work better than this torture? I say, LET THE BOND MARKET DECIDE and FED/TRUMP and their ilk can for EFF themselves.
[ooohhhh, there are rumors that Trump likes a bit of Fed Ass – – JUST A LITTLE JOKEE to make us smile]
This shit will go on until I die (it could be imminent for me, as I am ill).
I feel quite certain bond rates would be much higher. If the bond market knew there wasn’t going to be a QE bailout, there’s really no telling how high they could go, given our current financial situation.
But that’s not going to happen, at least not until the mother of all collapses takes place, and we then might even see Fed officials put in jail.
Looking at the PMIs for input and output prices, there are now serious inflationary CPI pressures in the pipeline. In this setting, I will be surprised if the Fed goes full Turkey under Trump‘s pressure to cut.
It’s funny how Carney over @ BB came to the exact opposite conclusion. I’ll go with his much more data-driven analysis.
Producer Prices: There Was No Inflation At All In June
Let’s reconvene in September (after 2 more CPIs). The PMI price data have a pretty record in leading the CPI.
Dictators get what they want. We are going to zero percent rates if he has to pin a murder on Powell.
Yeah, sadly this is so true. He might pin a Donkey, though? 😉
Higher inflation will affect everyone eventually including me. But this is a dictators’ world now. We dont matter.
Surprise New Evidence Surfaces in Epstein Case
– Strangled by Jay Powell. Bondi announces indictment.
I’m not disagreeing that the current President wants lower rates but if you don’t see he’s a constrained/constitutionally-restricted democratically-elected President and not some fascist dictator I can’t help ya. Doesn’t the name-calling concocted vitriol ever get old? Surely you don’t like when President Trump calls other politicians names–vs your party’s presidents that call all of us in the electorate names. You can make your economic points without sounding as silly as when Trump calls Newsome Newscum, right? Just a comment from a deplorable piece of garbage.
Anyway, back to the point. Obama had 0% interest rates for nearly 8 full years. Biden nearly half his term. Not hard for them to finagle their presidency without asking for ZIRP…they got it or already had it. Maybe those dictators should have demanded negative rates, is that your argument as to why they weren’t dictators while enjoying a 0% FFR?
If Trump was this dictator you mentioned, why did rates rise and why didn’t he get 0% from 2017-2020, only enduring a pandemic to finally see them? Why hasn’t it already happened? Do dictators normally have to wait this long? Doesn’t that diminish your contention of a dictatorship?
Trump wants lower rates like a sailboat wants wind. Makes the fiscal sailing a whole lot easier–even if it makes the boat go in the wrong direction a lot faster.
I voted for him, your party, again, gave us no sound alternative and though I like Mish I didn’t write him in–yet I don’t want lower rates, I want inflation to stop.
I don’t like the Fed but I don’t want a politician to control the price of debt/money/capital.
See, you can agree with the article without the fascist dictator nonsense, cuz that’s what it is.
This guy is different. He has the damaged self-esteem, business loss after loss, and is following the Adolph playbook to the page, from surrounding himself with dangerous, brain-addled people to picking on cultural groups that cant defend themselves. He believes only he is smart enough to make an American kingdom happen, and Im not the only one who is saying this. Dictators rarely “take over” immediately. They slowly wear (or wow!) the people down and put bootlickers in the 4,000 Federal political top jobs (including Army and law enforcement). It is Trumps rich friends that want the zero percent, as they have mostly had since 2008. They like being able to buy up everything for free and want zeroes back. Finally, Im thinking this is all leading to some narrative which will cancel future elections.
I see that he’s a child rapist, and I see that you SUPPORT a child rapist.
Once this issue is resolved I will consider others.