Independent polls by Pew, S&P, CBS, the WSJ, and Fannie Mae all say the same thing.
Poll Synopsis
- Fannie Mae Housing Survey (Oct. 8): Nearly 70% of Americans believe the economy is on the “wrong track”. Additionally, 73% feel it is a bad time to buy a house due to high costs and mortgage rates.
- WSJ-NORC Poll (Sept. 2): Roughly 70% of adults said the “American dream,” the idea that hard work leads to a better life, no longer holds true or never did. This is the highest level in nearly 15 years of surveying.
- Pew Research Center Survey (Oct. 3): 74% of Americans rate economic conditions as “only fair or poor.” This sentiment has remained consistently negative, similar to earlier in the year.
- CBS News/YouGov Poll (Oct. 3): 59% of Americans believe the economy is “getting worse,” an increase from 54% in July. This is partly influenced by perceptions of rising prices for goods and services.
- S&P Global Economic Outlook (Q4 2025): The report highlights that consumers are “showing signs of strain,” with real disposable income growth at a cycle low. Consumer spending, which makes up about 70% of GDP, is vulnerable to erosion from persistent price pressures and high interest rates.
Negative on the Economy
I previously commented on the WSJ poll. Let’s branch out.
Pew Research Center says Most Americans continue to rate the U.S. economy negatively as partisan gap widens
Around three-quarters of Americans (74%) describe economic conditions as only fair or poor – similar to the 72% who said this in January 2024. That includes 56% of Republicans and 90% of Democrats, according to a new survey by Pew Research Center, conducted Sept. 22-28 among 3,445 U.S. adults.
How do Americans view Trump’s economic policies?
About half of Americans (53%) say that, since taking office, Trump’s economic policies have made economic conditions worse. About a quarter say that his policies have made economic conditions better (24%), and 22% say his policies have not had much effect.
What are Americans’ expectations about the future of the economy?
Around three-in-ten Americans (29%) say economic conditions in the country will be better a year from now. That’s down from 36% in April and 40% in February.
By comparison, 46% expect national economic conditions to be worse a year from now. That’s on par with April (45%) but up 9 percentage points since February (37%).
These changes are primarily driven by decreasing optimism among Republicans – even as Republicans remain much more likely than Democrats to describe current economic conditions in positive terms.
Among Republicans
- 55% say economic conditions will be better a year from now, down from 65% in April.
- 19% say conditions will be worse, similar to the share who said this in April (15%).
Among Democrats
- 6% say conditions will be better a year from now; 8% said this in April.
- 73% say conditions will be worse; 74% said this in April.
What are Americans’ top economic concerns today?
Americans continue to be highly concerned about the price of food and consumer goods, as well as housing costs:
- 65% say they are very concerned about the price of food and consumer goods.
- Nearly as many (61%) express this level of concern about the cost of housing today.
CBS Poll
Also consider CBS News poll finds negativity on economy, job market and concerns about AI’s impact
Pessimism about the U.S. economy and its direction continues this month — negative ratings have persisted for years — along with net-negative ratings for the U.S. job market, specifically.
And in a year that has seen plenty of announcements about AI innovations and implications, there is also plenty of public suspicion that the job market may be hurt by AI.
Today, the number saying the economy is getting worse has ticked up again, as prices continue to weigh on perceptions.
Prices continue to be the main metric people use to evaluate the wider economy. And most say in the last few weeks, prices of the goods and services they buy have still been going up. Most expect them to keep rising, at least a little, too. (This, despite relatively better assessments of what’s happening with gas prices.)
Just over half call the job market bad, and that’s a tougher evaluation than Americans gave six months ago when views were more mixed.
CBS Poll Highlights
- 33% say the economy is good
- 59% say the economy is getting worse
- 33% say the job market is good, 52% say bad.
- 57% say AI is bad for the economy, 25% say good
- 67% expect higher prices in next few months, 13% lower
Trump Messaging Change
None of this is surprising. The Trump administration has even changed its messaging.
The Wall Street Journal reports Trump’s Team Hones Message on Economy: Just Wait Until 2026
President Trump’s advisers are counseling him to refine his economic message with a pitch to voters aimed at easing their anxiety about weak jobs growth and stubborn inflation.
Their new mantra: Just wait until next year.
In private conversations with the president, Trump’s advisers, rather than dwell on shaky economic data, have painted a rosy outlook, insisting that data will begin to improve in the first quarter of 2026, according to people familiar with the matter, including senior administration officials.
After a report showing only 22,000 new jobs in August, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Trump he believes the employment numbers will start to tick up once policies from his “Big Beautiful” tax-and-spending law are fully implemented heading into next year, according to a person close to Bessent.
Earlier, at a closed-door gathering in the Oval Office, other advisers told Trump it was up to him how to publicly address the weak jobs data and he could just breeze past the information by pointing to the future, according to a senior administration official. They assured him the economic indicators will show improvements as 2025 comes to a close, the official said. [Mish: Because if they did not say that, they would be fired.]
Trump himself has changed his tune. Though the economy was instrumental in his successful re-election campaign, he now seems to prefer to focus on immigration, crime and settling scores with his perceived enemies.
During a recent event about autism, the president waved off questions from reporters about the economy. “I’d rather not talk about some nonsense on the economy. I will say this: The economy is unbelievable,” Trump said at the time. [Mish: Ah yes, the unbelievable economy. ADP is wrong, the BLS is wrong, the polls are wrong, and anyone who disagree is wrong. It’s truly unbelievable].
Public opinion of Trump’s leadership on the economy has turned more negative in recent months. Just 37% of adults polled in September approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, according to an AP-NORC survey, while 62% disapproved. In a recent New York Times survey, 45% of voters said Trump had made the economy worse since taking office, while 32% said he had made it better. [Mish: The polls are wrong.]
On October 5, I noted Trump Adopts Chicago Cubs’ Perpetual Message, “Wait Till Next Year”
“One Big Beautiful Bill” did not resonate. Trump opts for “Wait Till 2026”.
But “Wait Till 2026” is a fundamental mistake. When 2026 is bad, the message will have to change.
The beauty of a more Cub-esque “Wait Till Next Year” is the slogan never has to change.
Then again, maybe all the polls are wrong, ADP is wrong, QCEW is wrong, and Trump is right.
But then why the message change? Oh, I get it. That’s a lie, a made up story by the Wall Street Journal. Everything is beautiful.
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October 4, 2025: About 100,000 Government Workers Are Off the Payrolls as of October 1
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October 1, 2025: ADP Private Jobs Decline by 32,000 in September, Huge Negative Revisions
ADP revised August from +54,000 to -3,000 making 2 straight months of declines.
Realistically, this is the expected result from inane tariffs. Close to half of all imports are items used in manufacturing, not end consumer items.
Small businesses and end consumers are getting killed by Trump’s tariffs.
But just wait till next year. That’s when miracles happen.
The other 30% have all the money. Greed.
At least, taco’s unfavorable ratings reflect his mismanagement of the economy.
Well were in a spot where a good chunk of the population is retired. Still needing goods and services without contributing work wise. I would say if unemployment rate is rising the problem is big.
You could say part of the numbers are from trump and doge firing fed workers.
At the same time the gov is the largest employer. And the results are the same to the economy.
Trump could come up with the cure for cancer, and the Democrats would still pounce on him. Politics as usual.
Great, now show the same poll from a year ago. Most people vote with their emotions (i.e. TDS) instead of their head.
Most people vote with their pocket books. Their pocket books were being taken by the HIGH cost of living under Biden. Tax payers giving FREE stuff to illegals.
The recession everyone has been calling for 2 years is still running late.
AI was well on its way towards America / world having it’s oh shit moment before January 2025. But Trump will certainly have an opportunity to make things better or worse. Personally, I don’t have faith in him.
Corporate earnings are still strong which means they’re able to raise prices whether they really need to or not.
Granted, over the next 6 months, the tariffs should get fully backed in, so there’s no way around Trump having to own that one. But to-date, the increase in inflation due to tariffs has been mild.
The extreme housing unaffordability has nothing to do with Trump.
Trump isn’t responsible for the government shutdown, but his new tax cuts will put extra money in some people’s pockets next year, while everyone kept their 2017 tax cut.
At some point, a recession has to arrive, but as they old saying goes, “Don’t fight the Fed”. The Fed will do everything they can to ensure it doesn’t.
JUST BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR. The chart yesterday that shows the # of persons relying on Obama Care subsidies doubling is the perfect example of why Biden’s term was so bad, pushing America down the wrong fiscal path.
We are going through a massive realignment at the moment. It won’t be without pain. Patience is the word of the day. Cleaning up messes takes time, setting new standards creates animosity, changing minds is never-ending. Give it time, be nimble, reorganize your priorities, the world won’t be going back to its former self.
Yeah good luck with that
Trump’s plan so far as I can see is:
Cut social spending (Medicaid, Medicare, SNAP, ACA subsidies, etc.)
Increase military spending.
Cut progressive taxes (income taxes)
Increase regressive taxes (tariffs)
Run $2+ trillion deficits as far as the eye can see, stoking inflation.
Plus the magic.
If King Chaos can’t crap on the Consitution, add more tarriffs willy nilly, send troops into our own cities, attack institutions & media, and call judges activists that rule against his lawless ways, without bumming out consumers…
there must be a failure in the messaging…
Have the 70% not heard: “it can only good happen“?
Mish, don’t be depressed. In 2020, within two months, SPX dropped to 2015 high. In 2022 SPX dropped to 2020 high. in 2025 SPX dropped to 2022 high. We don’t know how far SPX will drop next.
These same people bought houses for $25, 50, even 100 grand over asking price because of FOMO. Not exactly experts on the subject.
Must not own stocks or real estate or gold. Or they are hopeful that moar money gets printed by complaining about it.
More than 30% of folks own stocks and real estate so I guess they wanna be enriched AND have the security of continued employment and 17 more years of prosperity.
“But “Wait Till 2026” is a fundamental mistake.”
Well, only if you are on team MAGA. For the rest of us, the faster and deeper it all goes to sh*t the sooner Trump/Vance/MAGA can be shown the door once and hopefully forever. That is an endorsement for pretty much anyone not aligned with them.
So all this shit that is wrong with America all goes away when Trump/ Vance does?
Got it.
NO, not everything
Just the free-lance constitution demolition he has been conducting in the last year
The “supposed free-lance constitution demolition”, if true, isn’t having a meaningful effect on the economy. Tarrifs, sure maybe but not a perceived erosion of the Constitution.
That’s a red herring and assumes it’s true which it’s not, IMHO,
It’s hilarious that you think constitution demolition began, or will end, with Trump
Lol…ok.. Does the free-lance constitution demolition items include 20 million illegals over 4 years from 100 countries flown to the mexican border by these NGOs that you & I never even voted for ?
2 wrongs don’t make a right for sure, but know one ever calls your democrat party out on their illegal activities , and plenty of them. Its far from Democratic
You don’t get it. They’re deploying troops in cities and training ICE to attack citizens. There will never be another fair election.
Possible. 🫤
So, El Pedo, letting Antifa, gangs & illegals who commit crime continue to grow & gain prominence over US cities is going to help make elections fairer?
But, hey, you are the pedo who thinks “They’re deploying troops in cities and training ICE to attack citizens” that statement is NOT hyperbole.
Antifa? REALLY?
Is the Antifa in the room with us now?
Green apple ivermectin done made your head bad.
Ivermectin has been used in modern medicine for something like 65 years and is a highly effective medicine for several ailments but since your just another cool aid Trump Derangement sydrome individual how would you know?
My Dad was a large animal veterinarian, and he used Ivermectin often to treat parasitic diseases, and there is only one disease outside of the parasitic diseases for which there evidence that it is actually effective. Anecdotally, it works on just about anything. Amazing stuff.
It’s great stuff… if you’re a horse.
Not that they are wrong but you can argue 70% of Americans today are absolute morons so weigh that into the equation.
70% of Americans under the age of 30 have no clue about anything relevant thanks to our education system, that is intentional too.
yeah, anything that would actually fix an economic item Americans would go hysterical.
And just remember , to democrats, decreasing next years budget item from a 25% increase to a 17% increase is a massive budget cut .
That’s correct.