2025 cuts through Q3 exceed all but 2020 annual totals since 2009. Details below.
Please consider the Challenger Report for September 2025.
“It’s very likely job cut plans are going to surpass a million for the first time since 2020 and for the ninth time in our series. Previous periods with this many job cuts occurred either during recessions or, as was the case in 2005 and 2006, during the first wave of automations that cost jobs in manufacturing and technology,” said Andy Challenger, Senior Vice President and labor expert for Challenger, Gray & Christmas. “Right now, we’re dealing with a stagnating labor market, cost increases, and a transformative new technology. With rate cuts on the way, we may see some stabilizing in the job market in the fourth quarter, but other factors could keep employers planning layoffs or holding off hiring,”
“Tech firms are undergoing incredible disruption with AI that is not only costing jobs, but also making it difficult to land positions, particularly for entry-level engineers. Tech leaders have stressed that AI is changing the nature of work, and more companies are requiring their teams be trained on it,” noted Challenger.
“Now is when we typically see Retailers bulk up for the holidays, but so far, plans have been slow to come, reflecting caution. With lower consumer confidence and tariff pressures ahead, we predict the hiring season will be muted,” said Challenger.
Challenger Job Cut Details
- In the third quarter, planned layoffs by U.S. employers totaled 202,118, the highest Q3 total since 2020, when 497,215 job cuts were recorded. It is up 16% from the 174,597 planned cuts announced in the third quarter of 2024, and down 18% from the 247,256 recorded in the previous quarter.
- So far this year, companies have announced 946,426 job cuts, the highest YTD since 2020 when 2,082,262 were announced. It is up 55% from the 609,242 job cuts announced through the first three quarters of last year and is up 24% from the 2024 full year total of 761,358.
- The 2025 year-to-date total is the fifth highest in the 36 years Challenger has reported.
Industries Impacted the Most
- Government: The Government sector has announced 299,755 planned job cuts this year, of which 289,363 were Federal workers impacted by DOGE. In September, Challenger tracked 5,656 rescinded layoffs and attempts to rehire previously laid off workers at eight agencies. These are counted as hiring plans and reported in the firm’s hiring figures
- Technology: Through September, Technology companies have announced 107,878 job cuts, including 5,639 last month. This is an 8% decline from the 116,856 job cut plans from Tech companies during the same period last year.
- Retail: Retailers have announced 86,233 job cuts through September, up 203% from the 28,440 cuts announced during the same period last year.
- Services: Service industries have cut 61,590 jobs through September. This is up 64 percent from the same period last year.
- Financial: Finance industries have cut 46,386 jobs through September. This is up 28 percent from the same period last year.
Anemic Hiring Plans
So far this year, employers plan to add 204,939 jobs, down 58% from the 483,590 announced hiring plans through September 2024. Most of this drop is due to a low number of seasonal hiring announcements.
Last month, Challenger tracked 100,800 seasonal hiring plans, down from 401,850 announced by the beginning of October 2024.
September marks the lowest year-to-date hiring plans since 2009, when 169,385 new hires were recorded.
Challenger Announced Hiring Plans
September Hiring Patterns
- 2025: 117,313
- 2024: 403,893
- 2023: 590,353
- 2022: 380,014
- 2021: 939,790
- 2020: 929,860
- 2019: 459,689
Excluding Government
Total cuts through September are 946,426 of which 299,755 are government jobs.
That means there are 646,671 non-government cuts through the third quarter.
That exceeds the annual totals for years 2010 through 2019, also years 2021, and 2022.
Full year totals excluding government are likely to exceed every year from 2010 through 2024 except 2020.
Final Thoughts
These are dismal numbers.
It’s not just the cuts that matter but also hiring plans. Challenger shows a stunning drop in seasonal trends noted by September hiring plans.
If these hiring plans hold, we are going to have huge negative seasonal adjustment by the BLS in the fourth quarter.
I expect all hell to break loose in the labor markets in the fourth quarter.
Related Posts
October 4, 2025: About 100,000 Government Workers Are Off the Payrolls as of October 1
Trump is shrinking government payrolls. And another big cut is coming.
October 1, 2025: ADP Private Jobs Decline by 32,000 in September, Huge Negative Revisions
ADP revised August from +54,000 to -3,000 making 2 straight months of declines.
October 9, 2025: Five New Polls Show 70% of Americans Are Pessimistic on the Economy
Independent polls by Pew, S&P, CBS, the WSJ, and Fannie Mae all say the same thing.
October 5, 2025: Trump Adopts Chicago Cubs’ Perpetual Message, “Wait Till Next Year”
“One Big Beautiful Bill” did not resonate. Trump opts for “Wait Till 2026”.
Realistically, this is the expected result from inane tariffs. Close to half of all imports are items used in manufacturing, not end consumer items.
Small businesses and end consumers are getting killed by Trump’s tariffs.
But just wait till next year. That’s when miracles happen.
From Last Post …
Well what have we here: Agreement with PapaDave, BenW, and me.
Inflation is highest in everything Government touches.
Compare food to education or home prices. How many “affordable home programs” have we seen?
Education, Health Care, and Housing are all f’d up by meddling.
Insurance should be based on risk. But it isn’t. Screams for government to fix it makes it worse with handouts that drive of costs while removing incentives to hold down costs.
No one has any incentive to hold down costs, other than insurers to deny care (where allowed), and force huge costs on the government (taxpayers).
This report contradicts Mish and Wolf reports about gov cut. If the shutdown cont OMB Russ Vough will dbl the cuts. We don’t know if he will do it before or after Oct 18, If he will pour fuel to Obama mob.
What does it contradict?
Government cuts do not count until people are no longer paid.
Challenger only looks at announced cuts.
If trump suspends 900k+ people it does not matter at all because as long as they are getting paid, they are considered working.
U laughed at DOGE and the rehiring. The 100 years of gov expansion was stopped.
Government size is relative to the job its needs to do. I would assume its size would increase with population.
lol, right, because efficiencies and technology don’t impact scalability of work. Come on man, do better than this.
Gov size depends on POLICY.
eg. DOGE
What’s contradictory? I don’t see it.
The government’s incentive is to lock in price floors, not to bring prices down or foster free markets. We have crossed the economic rubicon, where the government no longer has the luxury to be “caring” towards its citizenry. Even ACA premium subsidies are no longer about helping people, but rather about funneling federal tax dollars into states.
Personally and selfishly, I’d be OK with insurance being completely based on risk because my own healthcare premiums would be significantly lower if my employer weren’t equally covering some of my colleagues.
But it would not be a silver lining for everyone.
Mish, with your history of cancer and your age, I doubt very many private insurance companies would insure you at all (without mandated pre-existing exemptions), much less at a rate many other people in your spot could afford. And if the rest of us signed off on Medicare kicking you off their dole since you are now risky statistically, a lot of people in your spot would be in dire straits.
Health insurance (and its super-high cost in low-odds catastrophic diagnoses) is not like auto insurance in that ‘risk’ regard. So I’m OK generally with assigning healthcare premium costs as if we are under Rawls’ “veil of ignorance”
Still haven’t seen passive flows reverse. That would signal market breakdown. Nobody gives a crap about valuations sky high, I doubt ppl even read a 10k. Until then the train keeps rolling. What’s the unemployment tipping point for this outhouse to bust?
Layoffs for the last 3 YEARS have been well above the average for the data series. This matches the Real Consumer credit report MISH posted earlier this week that showed a general contraction for the past 3 years.
If “This time it’s different”; then 3 years of economic rumbling is signalling a a huge, destructive crash, not a “soft landing”.
The Feral Reserve took 4 interest rate shots at stimulating the economy, but the economy is getting worse. The bond market is going to start pricing based on default risks, which will drive interest rates UP.
Mish
You continue to provide this and other useful data that shows a gradually weakening economy, specifically weakening labor market, weakening housing market, slowing housing construction, etc. You have even stated you think we are already into a recession. However, you criticize the FED for very gradual rate reductions, which seem completely appropriate in the face of a moderately weakening economy. What gives?
There’s still a massive overhang of cash in the economy and the banks. Currently it’s finding its way into the AI bubble. That cash represents potential inflation, and if the Fed lowers interest rates, you’ll see a re-awakened inflation beast.
That’s why BTC and gold are staying so strong; they have the triple benefits of protecting against inflation, recession, and simultaneously offering upside.
Agree except for that bitcoin protects against inflation. How does it do that?
Two anecdotal recession indicators:
Corrugated cardboard sales down 5% YDT. Friend in the industry tells me this is a very accurate gauge of economic activity.
My barbershop today was empty, 3 barbers looking at their phones. Longtime owner tells me traffic is way down, and that men go longer without getting haircuts during job recessions.
Bye DOW.
Buy GOLD.
Take Q1 2009 & Remove Outliner, and you’re at the norm for that time period.
Take Q1 2025 & Remove Outliner, and you’re at the norm for that time period.
We may finally get a recession in Q1 or Q2, despite absolutely massive fiscal stimulus. What is the last available number for the Mish improved Sahm/Goldman model? Any signal?
Recessions are not allowed. We all should know that by now. 😉
Governments and Central Banks do not like that dirty word. The majority of the people are not happy during a recession, and it is the Governments job to make them happy.
At least that is how it looks to me by looking at past economic slow downs.
They may not be able to stop one, due to the brewing “perfect storm” of economic nature.
But to your point, when Yellen said, “I don’t see another financial crisis ‘In our lifetimes’” she was telegraphing a shift in Fed strategy to never allow another one, due to the inevitable outcome it would have given current shadow bank introduced fragility.
Every Republican administration since 1920 has had a recession begin on their watch (13 recessions in total). I don’t expect this one to break the string. For those who care, 4 recessions by Democrat administrations in that time.
Why should anybody be surprised . . . the Economy is rolling over due to all of the shocks since the end of Covid. Don’t believe any Gorvernment data . . . fairy tales are probably closer to the truth . . .
Keep your eye on Gold and Silver . . . they are telling us something . . .
What is Gold and Silver telling us? Currencies are being devalued and the prices of everything is going higher. PMs, Stocks, Housing too? (except commodities like oil and nat gas and food. We like to over produce those commodities)
good thing bidens government created millions of new high paying jobs. should not be a problem for them to go get one.
Which in the clean energy sector, Trump et al are removing as quickly as possible. Funny that many of those jobs were in red states too.
3.5 million work in clean energy. 1.5 million in oil and gas. Both are currently losing jobs. Both mostly in red states.
“I expect all hell to break loose in the labor markets in the fourth quarter.”
I agree. What does PapaD say? We might be due for another trifecta.
I don’t remember any time since 2009 that government payrolls, especially federal, dropped by nearly 300K in less 3 quarters. If those are removed, the cuts are much more in line with past years going back to 2009. However, I do believe we’re into a lengthy period of significant job losses that will parallel plummeting job openings / hiring.
The $64K question is:
Will the Fed, the WH & Congress go to untold lengths to keep the economy out of a recession? My bet is an emphatic, YES!
Yep. We three agree again. Interesting.
Though I wouldn’t have said “all hell breaks loose in the labor market”. Just more downward momentum.
Tariffs and uncertainty are hurting US manufacturing and small businesses. Though it takes time for that to impact the economy.
I don’t believe it because Trump said everything is great. The economy is beautiful. 🙂
By Dec 31 the US gov will cut 1/2 a million. States will followed suit. Obamacare cost will rise. Chip mfg will cannibalize each other. AI chips and energy will be cheaper. Productivity will rise. Fed rates down. Tax collection will max. Tariffs up. Xmas air shipments from China down. Gov debt down. Rotation from sleaze and consumption to onshore production and from the gov to the private sector
I keep hearing people say the economy sucks but I do not see it. I saw it in 2009 and 2010. But as of now, I have been traveling on business the past few weeks and hotels are full, airplanes are full, restaurants are full.
I know friend who are going to pro out of town football games. $350 airfare, 3 nights at $250 hotels, $275 for one ticket. 5 friends went for the weekend. They probably spend $1600 a piece after factoring in food and drinks.
I am looking at going to a college football game in the midwest. The 50k stadium is sold out. Resell for ticket are $150 to $200. I was looking to get a hotel and they are at $400 a night in a small college town.
Don’t think those are your typical middle/lower class Americans (who make up the bulk of the population)
OK, so the economy sucks. Shouldn’t we see lower interest rates soon? At least a little bit? Yield on the 10 year is UP a little today. I know … inflation. So most, if not all, inflation data is on hold due to the shutdown. Where will interest rates go over the next few months?
Think about prices – notably stagflation possibility
Agree Mish. Stagflation seems very possible.
Sentient, prices are not beautiful enough. We need to turn inflation from nasty to beautiful. LOL
Government borrowed and spent one trillion dollars in the month of September just to keep afloat. Government borrowing is causing inflation. Tariffs are causing inflation. AI is bailing out the numbers a bit by keeping productivity high.
I commented on this yesterday, but maybe you didn’t see it (Consumer Credit thread):
I looked at the 10 year yield from 2007-2009 (Great Recession). The bond market reacted twice, once in advance of the recession as housing rolled over, and then again when the credit panic hit in late 2008.
Bonds may currently be in “recession anticipation” already, since rates have come down a bit this year… and as housing has rolled over again.
In 2007-2009, the 10 year yield rolled in July 2007, a few months before the stock market peaked in October.
The 10 year yield actually rose a bit in the middle of the recession (March-July 2008), partly since inflation back then was also high and didn’t slow down until mid-2008. Inflation is also high now, but different. Back in 2008 oil & commodity prices drove inflation, but currently it’s the labor market (services inflation) that needs to be tamed.
The 10year yield bottomed in Dec 2008 / January 2009, well before the stock market (April 2009).
So the two big opportunities in long Treasuries were July 2007 to March 2008, and then October 2008 to January 2009. There were excellent opportunities in long-term TIPS then as well.
If you wait for clear evidence of recession (like the stock market), you may miss a lot of the bond rally, which may already be underway.
But if the Fed manages a smooth landing and there is no recession, bond yields are likely to surge again due to untamed inflation and utter lack of fiscal discipline in Washington?
=gold down – 2.5%
did USA stop printing 2 trln per year in deficit.?? friend asked!!
3700*3900 nice point of buying if that!
around 3600 50avg.. NEVER EVER SEEN THIS PRICE AGAIN!!
alx
gold will be down 25%.
good!!! gonna buy more
In 2002 a kilo gold was $8,000. Today $130,000. Sell gold, buy when prices will be down below 1,800/2,000/oz.
It seems like the cuts were mostly front loaded heading into April. Since then, cuts are up a little but not enough to scare me. Not yet. It’s a slow enough increase at the Q3 level that it doesn’t look like the knock-on effects of the ham-fisted DOGE actions are going to be as damaging as I might have guessed.
What I worry about has nothing to do with politics, and that is these paying jobs that are now gone, will not be funding FICA. Social Security takes another hit. Biden-Harris (Kamala the tie-breaking vote) on the green deal, stole $280B from Social Security for EVs.
Cheer up. You are not getting screwed near as bad as the people 10 years behind you will be.
Quick! Bring those Mexicans back!
Pretty good idea.
Bingo! I have been saying this for years.
When will someone propose taxing automation, robot sand JOB LOSS? I’m surprised that the DEM/Socialist Left has not yet done this.
JoJo, Warren and others already have!
I recall Krugman was on this bandwagon.
And are you forgetting Musk?
Elon Musk Backs Universal High Income Fearing AI Will Take Every Job
https://mishtalk.com/economics/elon-musk-backs-universal-high-income-fearing-ai-will-take-every-job/
Strangely enough, I came across this article today which dives into this subject.
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Silly, it’s blowing huge amounts of money on AI utopia and gambling that is taking away money from jobs doing beneficial work for society like rebuilding infrastructure, improving low income public schools. A lot of the govt deficit spending is being wasted on AI when it could be better used to reduce our huge debt which is causing a lot more damage than what good AI is doing.
How was 280 billion taken from Social Security for EVs? I’ve never heard of that. What I did read is that the zirp done by the federal reserve, who was appointed by both Republicans and Democrats, resulted in low interest rates for the bonds held by the social sec trust fund, and those bonds supposedly havent kept pace with inflation, so the declining trust fund problem is bipartisan caused. For a long time, there has been only one choice on the ballot, Libertarian, for a balanced budget, which would remove many of the drivers of inflation, but very few voters are aware of the fiscal irresponsibility of both parties. Cant blame the young much but older voters have had plenty of time to learn whats going on.