Joint Communiqué
Stab in the Back
France Left Out of New Military Alliance
Via Eurointelligence
A new military alliance between the US, UK and Australia was announced last night, a thinly veiled counter move to an increasingly more assertive China in the Indo-Pacific region. Under the acronym Aukus, the three countries plan to intensify their collaboration on key technologies like artificial intelligence, cyber, quantum, underwater systems, and long-range strike capabilities. Over the next 18 months they will also consider the possible transfer of sensitive technology to Australia to run nuclear powered submarines.
This new Aukus deal will be a blow for France. Australia will abandon a $90bn submarine deal with the French Naval Group to acquire American nuclear-powered submarines instead. The French deal, signed in 2016, was in trouble for some time over cost implosion and delays. The blame is not on the French side alone, Australia’s industrial strategy had its share in this debacle too, as explained by the Sydney Morning Herald. Australia only had six submarines and was to get 12 traditional submarines under the French contract. Now they go all nuclear with US submarines to ramp up their presence in the Indo-Pacific.
The US has shared intelligence only with the UK so far. To bring in Australia is a big step that is yet to make its way through Congress. A sale of submarines will take years, but until then the US nuclear submarines could make calls in Australia’s ports to dock and refill or just show presence, writes Politico. Last year the US made a deal with Norway that allows them to dock and refill in the Artic, where the Russians are expanding their military presence. There is some strategic rethinking coming from the Pentagon.
France Recalls Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia
The New York Times reports France Recalls its Ambassadors to the U.S. and Australia to protest Biden’s submarine deal.
In a statement, the French foreign minister said the decision was made by President Emmanuel Macron.
“At the request of the President of the Republic, I have decided to immediately recall our two ambassadors to the United States and Australia to Paris for consultations,” said Jean-Yves Le Drian, the foreign minister. “This exceptional decision is justified by the exceptional gravity of the announcements made on 15 September by Australia and the United States.”
In the statement announcing that the ambassadors would return temporarily to Paris — a severe diplomatic step that is usually used against adversaries — Mr. Le Drian made it clear that his country saw the actions of the two nations as a serious breach of trust.
That language echoed the bitter comments from Mr. Le Drian and other French officials on Thursday, suggesting that the anger felt at the top levels of Mr. Macron’s government was more than a fleeting temper tantrum.
Rare Feud Between Allies
The WSJ notes the move marked the first time that France recalled its ambassador to the U.S. in their nearly two and half centuries of diplomatic relations.
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has said the nonnuclear submarines being supplied by France weren’t up to the challenge of countering the growing assertiveness of China in the Pacific. But French officials said the Australians never asked them to consider supplying nuclear-propelled submarines, which are a part of the French arsenal.
Such contretemps are rare between the U.S. and its longstanding allies.
Lost in the Brouhaha
Lost in the brouhaha is a simple set of questions.
Why does Australia need $90 billion worth of nuclear submarines?
Is China about to attack Australia?
Australia only has 6 submarines. It wants 12 new nuclear ones.
Why does it need any? If does need some, why 12 and not 3?
Perhaps a Count of Submarines explains.
The Race is On
- North Korea (83)
- China (74)
- United States (66)
- Russia (62)
- Iran (34)
- South Korea (22)
- Japan (20)
- India (16)
- Turkey (12)
- Colombia (11)
Submarine Gap
Turkey and Columbia have more submarines than Australia.
How pathetic is that?
And look at that big gap between North Korea and the US. That looks ominous to the but the quality of the North Korean submarines is more than a bit suspect.
Apparently France can build them but it only has 9 of them. No wonder Australia doesn’t trust them.
Regardless, to the bean counters there is a clear “submarine gap”.
And if in addition to the 6 Australia already has, if it gets 12 more, that would move it into a more respectable 8th place.
After all, Australia does need to defend itself from Turkey, Columbia, and most of all New Zealand which remarkably has none.
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Mish
vision and a lot of money. Bureaucratic government organizations by nature take
a timid, low risk strategy because they are afraid of being criticized. Musk on the other hand has a different
strategy and that is to take risks, blow up rockets to get data and basically
just do it. Funny, Bezos and Bronson with space have the same timid approach.
In pre-social media times the ambassadors would not have
been withdrawn but keep in mind that Macron and his advisors are in the 35-45
year old range and believe that reality is subservient to appearance and if one
can manipulate it well enough then appearance becomes reality.
It would be better to compare countries that have submarines
with nuclear propulsion to give a better idea.
In this list France is on the same rung as the UK so you can
see how it would hurt their pride and the French are known to be very touchy even
if they understand Australia’s reasoning. If I want to predict I would say that
Biden will try to bring in the French as a junior partner. The contract was in
trouble already, that’s not a secret, and the correct way would be to allow
them to save face which is what you do with allies. By no means is losing a big
contract is something new but generally there are ways to smooth it over. Why they
didn’t do it I have no idea. Maybe there was no way to make it well and Macron
is in an election cycle and needed the publicity. Additionally Eric Zemour, who
predicted that the US would throw France to the dogs is breathing down his neck
from an electoral point of view.
I live in France so I can definitely say that not only is
the French government pissed off but the common people also. The funny thing is
that they understand why the Australians would prefer American equipment and
have a close cooperation. Anyone with an eye can see that. They are pissed off
on how it was done and that it lacked a certain “savoir vivre”. There are ways
of breaking bad news to a close ally but learning about it just before an
Australian newspaper breaks the story is not one of them. That is the man on
the street view. On the other hand we are hearing incredibly stupid comments
from politicians and pundits like French military equipment is the best in the
world. They do have some good equipment without a doubt but blanket statements
like that are ridiculous. Some also claimed that Germany helped scuttle the
deal because of jealousy and because France refused to share with them France’s
aeronautical expertise. That last part is true but Germany is above silly squabbles
like that… or are they?
Another thing is that the French felt that they helped the
Democrats because they trashed Trump at every chance they got and that
consequently they expected to be treated right by Biden. They got a cold
shower.
For Australia it was a no-brainer once the UK and the US
decided to invite them into the agreement on sharing military nuclear
technology. That agreement was made between the UK and the US in the early
1950’s and since then no other country has been invited in so we have to look
at it as the milestone that it is. China if they wanted to might possibly do a
remake of Japan in the beginning of WW II and threaten Australia again so they
want the ally that can help them the most and that ally is not France which
doesn’t have the capability nor the blood and cultural ties that the US has. As
I said above it was the way the contract was ruptured and not that it was.
Nevertheless the consequences are there and for the umpteenth time the French
government is saying it will have to review its alliances. They would like to
but the choice is more limited now than 20 years ago. Another matter is that if
the UK had still been in the EU the Australia-UK-US pact would have been much
more difficult to set up.