Never before have so many politicians promised to spend so much. Among some candidates, the 2020 presidential campaign has turned into a contest to see who can offer the most “free stuff.”
John Stossel, the official arbiter of the much coveted “Free Stuff Blue Ribbon” has Kamala Harris currently in the lead.
So far, Harris is the only candidate topping the $4 trillion mark.
But it’s a close race and the numbers are guaranteed to go up. Bernie Sanders is in second place at $3.976 trillion. Elizabeth Warren is a close third at $3.806 trillion.
“Sleepy” Joe Biden is not even in the race. He only seeks an additional $297 billion, not much more than Trump at $267 billion.
The top three, Harris, Sanders, and Warren are duking it out.
Las Vegas odds makers have Sanders and Warren at 4-1 with Harris at 5-1 despite Harris’ front runner status. The over-under line is currently $5.3 trillion.
I confess. I made that last paragraph up.
Bookies, are you out there?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
I have no idea who will win in 2020. It really doesn’t matter who the dems nominate. The election will be Trump vs not-Trump. And not-Trump might win.
Agree. It really depends on the state of the economy. I do believe the house will impeach Trump just to make him look more unviable. They are waiting until 2020. The ugliness of the next decades is about to start off with as bang.
Pretty sure that the 60 million who voted for Trump in 16 will nearly all vote for him again in 20 even the never Trumper’s. The GOP has become so cult like. I also think that many in the GOP stayed home in 16 who will not this time because the democrats are getting ready to write a platform that is wildly socialist compared to previous platforms no matter who prevails in the nominating process. I think you underestimate that almost 70% of democrats have an unfavorable view of socialism, I know most of you do because of the posts that scoff at democrats for that reason, so let’s review some of the recent GOP debacles of socialist policy like Bush’s Medicare Part D that is currently at hundreds of percent over the projected cost shall we?
I am a lifelong (in my 60’s) party line democrat who recently changed his registration from democrat to GOP because I see the current crop of democrats as radical and socialist, more destructive than Trump and his questionable policies. Even more questionable appointments (or lack of).
Though I plan to vote for a more moderate candidate in the primary like possibly Weld, my state holds it’s primary so late that no matter the party I claim loyalty to it means nothing to say I would try to primary Trump. Nominations are always already determined before we vote. The one democrat I can perhaps vote for is almost as unpalatable due to his age as he is due to his political history, Biden, that would be the hardest electoral decision I have ever had to make, Trump or Biden. But the deeper we get into the election cycle the more he seems to bend to the left to overcome the far left radical Chavez’s the party is currently putting up.
I will say that twice in my life I voted not FOR a republican but against the democrat. I did not have to change parties to do that, and I expect on election day many will just not be able to pull that trigger for a socialist. I was so disgusted with Carter by 1980 that I voted for ANYONE else, just happened to be Reagan, don’t think I voted FOR him though, I voted against Carter. Ditto my vote 28 years later between McCain and in that year the democratic party. I was so supremely pissed at the rules committee for it’s Shanghai of the rules to deny the nomination to HRC that I refused to vote for their racially selected Obama. Over the years I became fond of Obama, especially in contrast to Trump, but I did like McCain as a war hero and veteran, patriot, enough that I did not have to hold my nose to vote for him.
I think Trump will win in 2020 in spite of economic collapse that is now months away, just because the socialists and those who support them get a lot of headlines and are annoyingly loud, but most democrats just do not trust them. Better to stick with the Satan you know than to take a chance on a Satan that promises what you know can’t be delivered.
The scary thing is that apparently sane adults sat quietly watching the goat rodeo of giveaways without walking out or hooting them all off the stage.
$1,000 a month sounds like a tidy sum until you go to the grocery store and discover that a loaf of bread now costs $2,000. Mugabe made quadrillionaires out of Zimbabweans. Bernie and the wingnuts would do the same to us.
The most insane being Sanders with what amounts to outright communism. He advocates public (government) ownership of everything from oil to groceries. He actually takes his “socialism” further than Hugo Chavez did. If he got his way there would be starvation in America and there would be a political and economic pogrom against white males. Same with Harris, you cannot read their proposals without spotting a real and deeply rooted bias against white males based upon their presumed UNIVERSAL privilege. News for them, I have been a white male for 61 years and have not known a single day or instance of anything like privilege. I have never even been in the middle class in spite of high IQ and good work ethic. Those just are not enough to propel you upwards anymore, more depends upon your parents stability than it does on personal merit. And I know that so many of you will take issue with me and claim that anyone failing has to be failing through their own lack of talent, ethics, brains, or sobriety. If that is the case then please explain:
A study published in 2008 showed that economic mobility in the U.S. increased from 1950 to 1980, but has declined sharply since 1980.
A 2013 Brookings Institution study found income inequality was increasing and becoming more permanent, sharply reducing social mobility.
It is not that hard to go from the bottom quintile to the second because the numbers are so small to start with. (remember that for everyone that moves up in any quintile there has to be one that moves down into that quintile) But, to go from the bottom quintile to above the midpoint is almost unheard of now, it happens and people love to point out those cases, the few Bill Gates’s and some rappers, maybe a bitcoin billionaire, but in fact they represent an extremely small percentage of the population.
Every one wants to spend and promise. I haven’t heard one (1) politician promise to eliminate 1 law that violates the Constitution.
It’s tyranny from here on out. Has been for some time actually.
Constitutionality is what SCOTUS says it is, not what we say it is, like that or not. There are plenty of people that think the 13th amendment was unconstitutional and an abiding violation of their own personal rights. They think they are entitled to live their lives ANY way they choose no matter the impact upon others. They are wrong and their insistent adherence simply makes their opinions ridiculous. You are humbly invited to like that or not, will change nothing. Those who argue their butthurt over what was rather than trying to devise a way to go forward in some sort of dignity and fairness are part of the problem not part of any solution, they belong on web forums like Zero Hedge not an intelligent discussion forum like Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis. Most of you are a pleasure to read, we all have different specialties and are for the most part well read and concerned citizens. Thankfully. So, I hope we excuse each others irrational moments and pet peeves so we can value our friend’s input. I know how hard it is to overcome frustration looking at the variable speed self destruction of man that has lately seemed to accelerate. Hard to stay positive, let go of irretrievable past and towards what can still be done in the future. For all our sake’s I hope you try.
I could tell you made that last paragraph up Mish, because they do not make book on political races, it is illegal.
But hang on, I thought Sanders promised $16 TRILLION for his green new deal which would strip white males of everything but their skivvies and give it to basically everyone else but especially to non white non males.
“Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders released a sweeping $16.3 trillion climate plan on Thursday, vowing to create 20 million jobs and completely zero out planet-heating emissions by 2050.”
“The proposal outlines easily the most ambitious vision for a Green New Deal to date, with calls to massively expand public ownership of everything from power generation to groceries.”
PUBLIC OWNERSHIP (government ownership) of everything. Fuck’n way to go, turn us into the USSA.
“The plan opens with Sanders vowing to slash U.S. emissions 71% below 2017 levels by 2030 with 100% renewable electricity and zero-emissions vehicles. He declares war on the fossil fuel industry with proposed bans on fracking, drilling on public lands and all imports and exports of oil and gas, and threatens companies with civil and criminal charges for pollution and obstructing climate action.” Plus hundreds of billions to other countries to get them off of oil.
By 2030 just 9 years after he takes office we will have no more offshore oil, no more oil drilled on public lands, no importation or exportation of oil, and no more fracking even on private land. Do the math, that means he will slash the oil supply by more than 92% in just nine years, so if you were thinking about buying an internal combustion engine vehicle better wait an see he is not elected. You will be stuck with a great new car that you cannot fuel. If he were to be elected gasoline would double before he was sworn in.
Mish, why do you think I changed my voter registration to GOP after voting for democrats since 1975? Because people like the current crop running for office on the left are suicidal stupid. Hey, they might have been good lawyers before they became politicians but they know less than squat about economics or capitalism.
My only problem is that voting GOP means voting for Trump and that really is not a goddamned bit better than voting for the rest of the senile BS running now. Of course Harris is not senile, she just hates the white male establishment, oh and she is none too fond of the military and veterans, especially the white ones with penises.
Try not voting. Very satisfying to the conscience.
I have never skipped a vote and will not, I see it as a duty of the citizen and besides, people who do not vote have no right to bitch about anything related to government or the economy, they just don’t.
Yeah, but the Fed opened this Pandora’s box with QE. Now that the people have wised up about QE making upwards of 80 trillion bucks available to the already wealthy at real interest rates at zero what’s a measly 4 trillion per year for the rest of us?
You make an excellent point. Some pigs are more equal than others.
$1000 a month times 330 million Americans times 12 months is almost $4 trillion a year. Forever. Or, fi you rpefer, $40 trillion over ten years. Andrew Yang merits some sort of a prize. “lead dunce?”
UBI is so huge that it does not fit into the normal cost accounting with periodicity. It is rather a devaluation of the dollar that has a targeted distribution that makes sure the new value at least passes through the hands of Main Street before heading to Wall Street, that aspect of it I am okay with, because in fact the laws and regulations have been devaluing the dollar and monetizing that straight to Wall Street and the top 10% (mostly 1%) for decades now. We have reached the point where 84% of all US assets are in the hands of the top 10% and nearly half are in the hands of the 1% and there just is no cogent argument to be made that sustains that wealth transfer. It will, or possibly already has triggered a virulent national urge to end capitalism itself which we all can agree would destroy our nation, society, and any hope of prosperity. But, deal with the facts rather than deny what is.
So, redistribution of wealth is simply going to happen, just as it has happened upward for decades it is now going to happen downward and no amount of bitching about it going to change that. Now, the concern should be the most fair way it can be done.
A UNIVERSAL UBI is one thing, whether it is $600 per month, $1,000 per month, or more/less is immaterial, all that does is describe the level of devaluation they have in mind. But, some of the presidential hopefuls have decided another route is better, it is a UBI that is not even UNIVERSAL! Harris proposes a UBI that is for working people only, a tax credit of up to $6k per year, but, you have to be a working person to get it and it is far more generous to people with families than to single workers.
She also wants to provide trillions for descendants of slaves, a total can of worms and the ultimate moral hazard there, that term was used to market her plan, however look at the fine print, there is no requirement to prove your African ancestry, nor that your ancestors actually were slaves, it only requires you to suffer the stigma of being black.
Well, I feel sorry for the white male gay retired/disabled man, they will be dealing with all the inflation that will result and get zero help, it will be a one way ticket to poverty for them.
I am in fact a disabled veteran so I ask you all, have ANY of you ever heard in the debates or ads from the left to date in the 2020 election cycle even one single mention of the word veteran? Because I have not.
Transportation sector slowdowns are a leading indicator of a looming economic recession.
Contrary to what the truth-makers on CNBC would have us believe, an economic downturn is approaching.
Gold and silver are up and the commodities are getting interesting: http://www.indexq.org/
True on all points. However, I sold 2/3 of our gold and silver positions last week due to spikes. I have been in metals since the early 80’s and it looks too much like a blowoff. Metals can drop in a recession/deflationary environment. I am looking to go long again at lower levels but would be fine if current positions move higher.
Societies in decline have no use for visionaries
Anais Nin
Where are the ‘reparations’ for us, dumbass Debtslaves?
Inquiring minds want to know.
Like all true 3rd world ,bankrupt banana republic’s,you have a problem,just print more cash…..problem solved and lets face it,the economy can’t really get much crappier than it is right now,so why not go all in or should I say burm in!
I believe the economy can get (and will get) much crappier. Americans do not understand and have not seen full blown Socialism. I still recall my childhood in the 60’s growing up in Germany. The aftermath of the hell of Socialism were still very evident and there were still National Socialists around. We are not even close.
The problem with banana republics is that they can’t print dollars. If you don’t have dollars, you can’t buy the stuff you need on international markets.
Hey Mish, please elaborate on your 10% corporate tax to give hundreds of billions of free stuff to Fake book Mark Zuckerberg.
None of them comes close to Mish calls for free stuff for rich gigantic corporations by slashing their taxes to 10% – much much higher than I pay. Mish calls for trillions and trillions and trillions of free stuff for ulta rich gigantic corporations and the ultra rich.
A crushing overwhelming Trump landslide is coming in 2020.
The craziness with the democrats has only just begun.
Does it add in other people’s money they give away without it passing through the government first, such as a $15 minimum wage and rent control?
Its all garbage socialism. The dems have essentially conceded 2020 presidential race already, Trump gets a second term by default.
The USA cannot (is not able to) pay for all the promises already on the books.
Lots of Californians (extremely liberal, did not vote for Trump) and NYC (extremely liberal, did not vote for Trump) have discovered the true costs of all this socialism and they are rebelling or fleeing from their socialist paradise.
Despite having a solid democrat government at the state and local levels, California is known for rampant homelessness, disease, rat infestations, municipalities not paying their bills… and hospitals that are completely overwhelmed every day of every week.
NYC mayor Deblasio is so hated that his own staff told him not to attempt running for president, he would just embarass himself… they were right. Former mayor bloomberg was a democrat most of his life, switched to republican as an election gimmick, governed as a socialist — and his staffers told him not to run either.
Trump may not be the greatest whatever that he thinks he is (and his free stuff interest rate plan is counter-productive) — but the incumbent has an advantage even if there was worthy competition. In this case, the dems don’t even have a feasible idea never mind an appealing one.
It all depends whether the economy tanks before November 2020.
How invasive the election will be meddled with by Silicon Valley.
And never underestimate the amount of stupid people who might just believe those empty promises.
If the socialist economy tanks?
California’s economy is tanking. The IPO market that made wealthy San Fran possible is drying up (see WeWork, Smiles Direct, etc). Outside of unicorns waiting to IPO, the rest of the state was already in serious economic trouble. Homelessness is rampant all over. Rats infest Los Angelos. Human feces and needles everywhere. LA even has a the plague — a medieval disease! Hepatitis A all over the place (from the feces). And recently LA had multiple cases of lepracy. Yes, you read correctly: lepracy in a first world municipality run by socialists.
Baltimore, Chicago and Philli have rampant drug use and really violent crime, despite having the strongest gun control laws in the country.
Yes… the economics of socialism are going to be a factor that helps just about any other option. So Trump wins, even though some of his ideas (negative interest rates) are stupid.
Silicon Valley’s intolerance and censorship has been exposed already. And media outlets (most based out of lefty LA and lefty NYC) have been trying to psych people into a recession for months.
Trump is the least dirty shirt in the laundry, the dems just handed him the next election
Well Bob,
I’m not advocating for the Soc Dems one bit either. Sure, I can get behind some of the proposals, but in the end I think Trump should finish what he started. But the butthurt is going to be epic if he happens to win again, mark my words!
All the socialists predicted the end of the world within minutes of Trump’s inauguration. Turns out Trump is disturbingly similar to all the other idiots who occupied the oval office before him. Doom porn sells newspapers and web pages, but Trump took office and the sun rose just as any other day.
Mark your words. The sun will rise in 2020 just the same.
Side note: At least one third of all US leprosy cases are proven through genetic identification to have been transmitted via people eating infected armadillos. Probably does not change your narrative about poverty since why would anyone eat an armadillo that is likely carrying leprosy if they are not extremely poor, but, they sequenced the DNA of the people diagnosed and compared it to the strains found in armadillos and it is a match. As many as 250 people per year are sickened, who knows how many more are unreported as it takes time for the disease to become apparent.
I’ve heard a number of stories about “patient zero”, whether its an armadillo or something else. I’m not sure the DNA evidence is as definitive as you suggest, but armadillos can’t be ruled out.
What is medically definitive is that leprosy can’t spread under “normal”, economic first world conditions. Assuming one guy in LA ate an infected armadillo (or whatever the root source) — that should have been the first and last human case. Yeah yeah, more than one armadillo — but human to human transmission should not be possible in a city run by a functioning government.
The rat infestation, the garbage left uncollected, the homelessness, needle sharing, feces all over the place, rampant hepatitis A (spreading via blood or feces?)…. the disease transmission mechanism possibilities all point to a failed government in California (and many big cities).
Its understandable that third world governments don’t have the resources to address the problem. But California, if a separate country, would be the 6th largest economy in the world. It has the highest total taxes in the USA, the largest economy in the world. And the USA has been a first world country for at least a century…. California has no “lack of resources” excuse. California is a failed government, period.
Ditto for Chicago, Philli, Baltimore, etc etc. Failed governments in each and every case. NYC under deBlasio may not be failed yet, but its really really close and some might argue it is a failed government too. All the taxes, legal authority and resources in the world — and they are unable to deliver the most basic services.
Yup, the people in these cities are partly to blame. They vote for the failed government. They generate the trash and don’t clean it up. And so on. But that only enforces the notion that socialist states always fail, because of both the government and the people who put that government in office
I wonder if it could be taco trucks using armadillos as chicken substitutes (cheaper and people swear you can’t tell the difference between it and chicken). I met people in Texas back in the seventies when I was stationed there who swore armadillo is “good eat’n.”
If you’re the smartest person in the room, you’re in the wrong room
Simon Kuper
Free healthcare for illegal immigrants?
Reparations?
Universal basic income?
Student debt forgiveness?
But wait…who is supposed to pay for all this free stuff?
*it’s YOU…you silly taxpaying debtslave!
“Free healthcare for illegal immigrants? Reparations? Universal basic income? Student debt forgiveness?”
All of whom, combined, despite being horrors and crimes against humanity on an almost unimaginable scale, still pale to almost complete insignificance in size, and sheer scale of terror visited on productive humanity, compared to the “free asset appreciation for useless leeches” which has so effectively stripped the West of absolutely all and everything, of any redeeming value whatsoever, over the past 50 years.
Oh indeed. The funny thing is, I actually applaud Sanders’ plan to tax Wallstreet. I mean, those are the leeches you were referring to, right?
Internal transfers between leeching populations (intraleech transfers…) aren’t any more relevant than whether a North Korean factory is nominally owned by the North Korean government or by Kim personally.
The economic damage is done, once you are in a place where unproductive leeching generate anything at all of value to tax. That’s what needs fixing. Not squabbling over which group of connected leeches ultimate ends up with the unearned loot.
Well said!
The funny thing Harry, is how unbelievably dependent New York City and New York state are on Wall Street for almost everything.
You and Bernie are not the first people to think of taxing the other guy. Lots of others thought of it first.
And each time a mayor of NYC (or governor of the state) proposes more taxes on Wall Street, the bureaucrats do a study and find out how much the city gets, and how much the state gets. If one large bank leaves, both the city and state are screwed.
I haven’t lived in NYC in a VERY long time, but two decades ago it was almost 60% of the city’s budget came from Wall Street. Keep in mind, its not just bank taxes. Its all the fancy restaurants and dry cleaners and limo drivers and on and on that indirectly “work on Wall Street”.
In the years since I left, NYC has actually become more dependent on Wall Street, which is what stopped Comrade Deblasio in his tracks.
NY state gets most of its revenue from NYC area residents. As other commercial centers closed (Kodak collapsed Rochester NY most recently), Albany’s dependence on NYC only increased.
Tax Wall Street, and watch both NYC and NY state implode.
Goldman Sachs recently got a huge tax incentive to keep their HQ in NYC. Not because the socialists like Goldman — they do not– but because the socialists can’t survive without them, and both NYC and Goldman know it.
That might be true, but you know what? I think Main Street in rural America might be more important than that minority in NYC city and state. The only downside would be even higher propertytaxes for the remaining workingclass in upstate NYC.
Bernie voters are concentrated in NYC and NY state, Harry
Except that the debt slaves are paying for QE which has made the 1% so wealthy. The only Socialism in the US is that which supports
the rich to the detriment of the rest.