French Elections: Another “Unthinkable” Result Coming Up?

by Mish

Round One Five Key Points

1. Le Pen in Front
2. Fillon Stabilized at Worst
3. Macron Tied with Fillon
4. Hamon in Decline
5. Melenchon in Decline

Round Two Macron vs. Le Pen

Round Two Macron vs. Le Pen Five Key Points

1. Macron Peaked on February 8: 66%
2. Le Pen Bottomed on February 8 at 34%
3. Macron at 58% on February 22
4. Le Pen at 42% on February 22
5. Eight Point Swing to Le Pen in 14 days

Round Two Fillon vs. Le Pen

Round Two Fillon vs. Le Pen Five Key Points

1. Fillon Peaked on February 8: 62%
2. Le Pen Bottomed on February 8 at 38%
3. Fillon at 57% on February 22
4. Le Pen at 43% on February 22
5. Five Point Swing to Le Pen in 14 days

Who would you like to see elected President of the Republic on May 7?

Voter Preference Two Key Points

1. Le Pen Topped Macron on February 22, Taking the Lead for the First Time.
2. Macron Down Five Percentage Points Since February 7.

Election Issues

“Without thinking of the candidate who has your preference, among the following candidates in the presidential election, which one has scored the most points in the past week? “

Marine le Pen is scoring the most points with voters despite a recent surge for Fillon.

Mish Comments

1. Le Pen stacks up well vs. Macron and Fillon on Jobs, pensions, security, terrorism, and immigration.
2. The idea she cannot win or is highly unlikely to win is a serious mistake.
3. Those on the Right may well vote for Macron in that pairing, but will those on the Left vote for Fillon?
4. I suspect Le Pen would beat Fillon.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock