French Pension Reforms Trigger Strikes, Arson, and Riots. Prelude to the US?

Macron’s Pension Gambit Sparks Revolt, Pushing France to the Brink

Bloomberg reports Macron’s Pension Gambit Sparks Revolt, Pushing France to the Brink

The French President is facing increasingly violent protests that risk scaring off the investors he has spent the past six years courting.

It’s the stuff of nightmares for those who promote the new, dynamic France: Giant mounds of stinking garbage bags overflow from bins near the Notre-Dame cathedral in the heart of Paris, violent demonstrators in Bordeaux set fire to the majestic doors of City Hall and teargas-laced battles break out in major cities between ranks of riot police and protesters who set alight whatever they can lay their hands on.

Such images flashing on television screens across the globe show a country set back to its demons of angry street protests that brought political crises and economic inertia to successive French presidents. And the trigger for this latest regression is the architect of change: Emmanuel Macron, whose stubborn insistence on ramming through an increase in the retirement age reignited labor unrest, deepened fissures in parliament, nearly brought down his government and now threatens paralysis for the four remaining years he gets to stay in office.

What Happened?

President Emmanuel Macron upped the retirement age from 62 to 64 and placed further restrictions on collecting a full pension.  

He did this unilaterally, by decree.

Under the French constitution, the president can enact laws without a vote in Parliament if he can survive a vote of no confidence. 

Macron barely survived a vote of no-confidence by just nine votes. 278 voted in favor, with 287 needed. 

Explaining the Issue

Where Socialism Leads Disaster Follows

Calls to Resign 

Economic Illiterates Support the Protests 

The number of economic illiterates on Twitter in support of these riots is stunning. 

Why the French Are Angry About a Plan to Retire at 64

Please consider Why the French Are Angry About a Plan to Retire at 64

The world’s population of people aged 60 years and older is expected to double by 2050, according to the World Health Organization, while fertility rates are in long-term decline. The financial strain is challenging old-age support systems and leaving many countries facing tough choices about raising the age of retirement, cutting benefits or lifting taxes. Pension shortfalls will be the equivalent of about 23% of world output by 2050, the Group of 30 consultancy estimated. One key measure is the old-age dependency ratio — the number of older people compared to the population that is working age. In Europe and North America, that ratio will be about 50 per 100 by 2050, according to UN forecasts, a rise from 30 per 100 in 2019. In short, we’re on a trajectory toward a smaller share of people paying taxes and a higher proportion drawing pensions. By 2035, the basic US system known as Social Security will no longer be able to cover payments, forcing a 20% reduction in benefits, according to its trustees

US Social Security 

By 2035, the basic US system known as Social Security will no longer be able to cover payments, forcing a 20% reduction in benefits, according to its trustees.

That is hardly the worst of it. 

Many public union pension plans in the US, especially politically corrupt states like Illinois, are realistically insolvent.

Yet, the fools in Illinois voted to enshrine pension promises in the constitution. 

So yes, France is a prelude to what’s going to happen in the US. 

PATCO Solution

I support the Ronald Reagan approach. 

Fire all public union workers who strike. In fact, public unions ought not exist at all in the first place. That is where the real problem is.

Now we are saddled with pension promises that cannot possibly be met all because corrupt politicians get in bed with corrupt union leaders screwing the ordinary taxpayer. 

For discussion, please see Democrats, Here’s Your Chance to Get Rid of Bad Police

Ronald Reagan smashed PATCO, he did not go far enough. He should have smashed all the public unions. 

The fact of the matter is simple: Public Unions Have No Business Existing: Even FDR Admitted That.

This post originated on MishTalk.Com.

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A Dose of Reality 5
A Dose of Reality 5
1 year ago
So Elon et al wants to put a moratorium on A/I. So say we all agree. Then research is done in secret. Say corporations stop. Then the military does it. Say the West stops. Then the Russians do it. Then the Chinese. Then everyone comes out of hiding and says yea we have all been doing it.
Don’t kid yourselves, the capital owners will own robotics and AI. Nothing will be free. We will trade something of value for its use and maintenence.
Trust me – – Anti AI technologies will be all the rage one day. Walking around with my portable EMP generator to counter offensive intrusive ai robotics will be the future.
If you think cell phones spy on you and your actions – as part of the panoptic meta data set collection or more specifically using supercookies or lost NSA espionage tools linked to your phones camera, mic, gyros, GPS and other sensors.
Then
Imagine AI equipped robots living in your home connected to the internet. Caring for you or your children or aging parents. Watching and guarding your home and belongings. Connected to by its designer for updates and patches. . Our government, several hacker groups and the ever present Chinese all connected too to your robot to see what they can learn from you or to the cloud where it stores it’s ‘memories’.
Jojo
Jojo
1 year ago
The Age of AI has begun
Artificial intelligence is as revolutionary as mobile phones and the Internet.
By Bill Gates| March 21, 2023
In my lifetime, I’ve seen two demonstrations of technology that struck me as revolutionary.
The first time was in 1980, when I was introduced to a graphical user interface—the forerunner of every modern operating system, including Windows. I sat with the person who had shown me the demo, a brilliant programmer named Charles Simonyi, and we immediately started brainstorming about all the things we could do with such a user-friendly approach to computing. Charles eventually joined Microsoft, Windows became the backbone of Microsoft, and the thinking we did after that demo helped set the company’s agenda for the next 15 years.
The second big surprise came just last year. I’d been meeting with the team from OpenAI since 2016 and was impressed by their steady progress. In mid-2022, I was so excited about their work that I gave them a challenge: train an artificial intelligence to pass an Advanced Placement biology exam. Make it capable of answering questions that it hasn’t been specifically trained for. (I picked AP Bio because the test is more than a simple regurgitation of scientific facts—it asks you to think critically about biology.) If you can do that, I said, then you’ll have made a true breakthrough.
I thought the challenge would keep them busy for two or three years. They finished it in just a few months.
In September, when I met with them again, I watched in awe as they asked GPT, their AI model, 60 multiple-choice questions from the AP Bio exam—and it got 59 of them right. Then it wrote outstanding answers to six open-ended questions from the exam. We had an outside expert score the test, and GPT got a 5—the highest possible score, and the equivalent to getting an A or A+ in a college-level biology course.
Once it had aced the test, we asked it a non-scientific question: “What do you say to a father with a sick child?” It wrote a thoughtful answer that was probably better than most of us in the room would have given. The whole experience was stunning.
I knew I had just seen the most important advance in technology since the graphical user interface.
This inspired me to think about all the things that AI can achieve in the next five to 10 years.
The development of AI is as fundamental as the creation of the microprocessor, the personal computer, the Internet, and the mobile phone. It will change the way people work, learn, travel, get health care, and communicate with each other. Entire industries will reorient around it. Businesses will distinguish themselves by how well they use it.
Cocoa
Cocoa
1 year ago
Hence why the Neoliberals in GOP and Democrats want to remove the Second Amendment. Spoofing up shootings and getting people wound up against guns year after year. Until guns are illegalized, the US Government cannot behave as it wants to-like the French Oligarchy Republic. With hoards of Stazi running around beating citizens by the thousands. Meanwhile Macron lectures people with a $50,000 EUR watch on his wrist. Let them eat cake. Aprés Moi le Deluge. I hope they can remove that POS Macron and figure out how to save France without it totally imploding into a complete mess. Its not about reforms, that was the last straw. Its about Globalist corporate power enslaving people and taking the lion’s share.
astroboy
astroboy
1 year ago
Well, as regards the US, my financial advisor told me social security would be solvent until the end of time if there was no income ceiling: that is, if you make $1,000,000 per year, you pay social security tax on the entire one million. Interesting, if true. I doubt that a 6.5 or 13% bump on anyone with that sort of income will make them homeless. SS is basically insurance. You might not collect on it… so I’m OK with this.
I don’t see any other realistic alternative. Taxes are going to go up, one way or another. I’ve been in situations where that 6.5% SS tax was a real burden, now, a 6.5% chunk of my income isn’t going to make me go hungry at the end of the month anymore, so I’m OK with paying it.
Scooot
Scooot
1 year ago
This is very good.
Webej
Webej
1 year ago
Disagree. As with the yellow vests, the protests signify that the French do not regard the government or policy as legitimate, but as an elite club with no skin in the game. Macron disregarded all input from social consultations at many levels and all input from public unions. There have been protests at many other government policies the past years. Macaroni only got in because he is in the middle of the political spectrum between leftist lasagna and right-wing rigamarole. The French feel disenfranchised and hate Macron.
Pension is never a popular reform, even Putin had to make changes to his pension reforms … but he did react to the populace and tweaked the policy. The CPC changed their Covid policy after massive unrest. Governments that are no longer in dialogue with the various layers of society have a lot of trouble getting anything done, and it is Macron’s haughty dictatorial style that is responsible, not the necessity of changing pension rules.
Toutatis
Toutatis
1 year ago
Reply to  Webej
I think that the problem is the very bad economic situation (now and in the future) that will necessarily impose a very sharp decline in the standard of living. We live in a country where industry has almost disappeared, and agriculture is very bad too. The main cause of this is the way that all this protesters (at least the old) have voted in the preceding decades. They protest now against the consequences of what they did choose.
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
See any fat people in those French crowds? Most Americans can’t stand up long enough to protest.
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
1 year ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Here, when we protest, we do it the American Way: We do it while sitting on our rears in our trucks….
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  StukiMoi
Playin our freedom rock
Dubronik
Dubronik
1 year ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Most American would be rolling rather than walking.
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
1 year ago
Let me say at the outset, I am no fan of the public sector. However, employees signed on to a contract, forgoing perks in the private sector in return for perks in the public sector.. if they come out ahead at retirement, too bad.
People must be responsible for their decisions, when they vote in elections or accept job offers. No do-overs.
Jojo
Jojo
1 year ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
I wouldn’t count on that.
KidHorn
KidHorn
1 year ago
The democrats can call up their lacky Antifa army any time they want and produce inner city chaos. So, if protests are politically expedient to them, no matter the excuse, it can and likely will happen.
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Ah that old bogeyman. What’s it been, 4 years a you still got PTSD? Tucker keeps it fresh for you, even if he doesn’t believe a word of it…but it sells those penis pills and magic pillows!
Dr Funkenstein
Dr Funkenstein
1 year ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Keep watching MSNBC with its admittedly “no one takes us seriously so we can lie and smear with impunity “ that an Obama judge accepted. Remember a lot of these antifa/Black Olives Matter terrorists groups function because the Democrats award them millions in damages…oohh I throw my shoulder out throwing a brick through a store window and cut myself on the glass when I was stealing a tv,
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  Dr Funkenstein
Msnbc learned from fox… and may have even surpassed fox’s constant frightwig freak out. They are angertainment, not news .
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
Macron will not cave in. The French revolution came after the French armies and de Grasse navy extracted the British from the 13 colonies. GW reneged on Comte de Vergennes plan to make France, the sugar islands and US triangle the center of the world. The British Empire moved on and extracted India, Japan and China. After WWI they got the ME. // The French tried to split US north/south, but the barons of the south were the richest people in the world. They exported cotton to Liverpool & Manchester during the industrial revolution and tobacco their bros, the Scot’s Tobacco Kings. US civil war, under the banner of freedom, changed the existing status quo.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  8dots
Sugar is a better drug to own than tobacco.
HippyDippy
HippyDippy
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
Sugar is deadlier. And in everything. Not that tobacco is a healthy alternative. Which is why I stick with my opium suppositories. Numbs the pain of new governmental policies.
whirlaway
whirlaway
1 year ago
Prelude to the US? Nah. Too many people in the US still believe in the trickle-down crap. And on top of that, there is zero class solidarity. The people have been divided right in the middle by the TPTB using truly ridiculous culture war crap.
Jay Gould said over a century ago, “I can hire one half of the working class to kill the other half.” Now, they don’t even need to hire the one half. They just sic each half against the other.
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  whirlaway
Didn’t even need half, just turn the dumbest third into frothing delusional zealots and everyone else will despise them.
Dubronik
Dubronik
1 year ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Zealots a la Trump….
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  whirlaway
Bubble up poverty will do it.
whirlaway
whirlaway
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
That is happening too, thanks to the corporate crooks and their politician puppets. As the status quo continues, more and more people are slipping from the middle-class into poverty.
HippyDippy
HippyDippy
1 year ago
Well, I have the SOLUTION! Have the French take Andrew Cuomo to replace Macron. He did a fine job of depopulating New York’s pensioners. Proven experience! Proven Results!
vanderlyn
vanderlyn
1 year ago
i’m one who votes in both EU and USA. no comparison. europeans are NOT afraid of their own government. they already went through their revolutions against their respective crumbling empires. amerikans are adolescents in comparison and rightfully scared of their own military industrial complex which are what used to be called police. we don’t have the testes. yet. maybe in another few decades or century.
Toutatis
Toutatis
1 year ago
Reply to  vanderlyn
Yes, but the American citizens are armed, the Europeans are not.
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  Toutatis
Americans are armed BECAUSE they are afraid.
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
1 year ago
Reply to  Zardoz
“..BECAUSE they are afraid.”
Thank goodness some minimum of sentience still remains.
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
1 year ago
Reply to  Toutatis
“Yes, but the American citizens are armed,…”
What matters wrt whether Government exists to serve the people, or vice versa; is how well armed the population is relative to the Government. So, while a fair number of Americans have kitchen knives and pea shooters; they’re just as outgunned by their overlords’ MRAP equipped SWAT teams and jackbooted agencies, as their fellow slave in other, similarly totalitarian societies.
The only difference being, it’s not too long since things weren’t quite so bad over here. So there remains some “societal memory” of America as some sort of “land of the free.” But a quaint memory is all what is left of that once-was freedom by now.
HippyDippy
HippyDippy
1 year ago
Reply to  StukiMoi
Just because the cops play dress up, doesn’t mean they can walk their talk. Cops are typically incompetent narcissists. I haven’t been a paratrooper in over 30 years, but I’m still a lot more competent than 99.9% of those bozos. Not only are they incompetent and cowardly, they’re extremely outnumbered. You’re terrified of an illusion of strength.
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
1 year ago
Reply to  HippyDippy
No doubt.
If all, or even a reasonable share of, armed US civilians grew up enough to realize there is no option other than throwing the bums out for real, the bums would be out. But that’s also the case everywhere. The bums would, because their superior armament means they could, cause an insane amount of hurt on the way out, though. Look at Waco: The losses were much higher on the non-junta side.
Also, when it comes down to it, the cops will be firing at you from gunships and mraps. Americans are woefully under equipped to deal with those, nowadays near universal, threats; once-were paratroopers or not.
HippyDippy
HippyDippy
1 year ago
Reply to  StukiMoi

You are vastly overeating the capabilities of the military. 1- this is a very large country. That’s important because the size matters in such a case. Ex: how can they possibly cover any real ground with all that weaponry? 3k miles east to west alone. The entirety of the global armed forces couldn’t cover but the tiniest fraction of the country. 2- 90% of the military (this being a generous estimate) is incompetent beyond belief. 3- If 1/10th of 1% of the population just showed up, the entirety of the military/lawdawgs would be doomed. This just by numbers. 4- The problem isn’t that we’re outgunned or face tough odds. The problem is cowardice. And the desire of slaves to stay slaves. Enjoy finding reasons to be afraid. The punks you’re afraid of don’t frighten men. You buy into their projections to convince yourself to do nothing. Fear and liberty can’t co-exist. I’ve trained the lawdawgs in my area because I fear nothing in this, or any other, realm. Cops are cowards. Armed against a largely unarmed population. And still scared to death. And you fear them? Pathetic.

Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
1 year ago
Reply to  vanderlyn
The US people will revolt if Facebook is taken away.
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
Nobody is on Facebook anymore… its almost pure ads now.
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
1 year ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
“The US people will revolt if Facebook is taken away.”
But, as opposed to The French; what remains of “revolting” over here, doesn’t go beyond begging some ambulance chasing clown to deem and hold and find and rule….
Directed Energy
Directed Energy
1 year ago
LQQK, let’s be brutally honest here. Social Security isn’t going anywhere, but even if it did there wouldn’t be mass riots or protests. What there would be is an insanely higher spike in crime rates from the increased desperation of lower income folks.
But like I said it isn’t going anywhere. They haven’t raised the income cap on the tax yet, they haven’t flat out raised the tax rate, they haven’t started means testing to receive it, they haven’t borrowed for the fund yet…here’s what’s going to happen:
They are going to enact changes that phase it lower and lower for future generations. Everyone 30+ right now will get exactly what “My Social Security” tells you what you will get when you log in and check.
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
1 year ago
Wanna bet S/S will be means tested within the next five years?
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
And there will be another tax cut for the wealthy in the meantime.
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
1 year ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Of course. Tax cuts are an economic good, no different from any other. Sold to the highest bidder.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
Wanna bet they’ll keep the promises by borrowing from the children and grandchildren?
Jojo
Jojo
1 year ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
I don’t see anything wrong with means testing. If you have the means to retire comfortably, why should SS augment the $$ you already comfortably have?
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  Jojo
I agree. Really mean people shouldn’t get benefits. And if you have enough mean people for retirement…
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
1 year ago
“What there would be is an insanely higher spike in crime rates from the increased desperation of lower income folks.”
Yup!
Criminalisation is the Americas (s not n) way.
Think of it as a more individualistic, as opposed to collectivist, way to protest.
It won’t be long until home invasions, and then express kidnappings, become just as much part of the background noise of life in the Totalitarian States of Dystopia, as it already is a bit further south.
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
Inflation and copay will increase the gap between working people and those on gov goodies and retirees. The SS system will not bust.
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
Those who lost power are ganging together against the men in power. The dictators are blaming their opposition in what they are doing. Their team have lost and they cannot accept it. If Macron and Bibi cave in they are toasted like Trump.
Twink
Twink
1 year ago
This conversation is happening way too late. Generative AI has reached a level to allow it to replace about 50% of the white collar workers. Hundreds of IT companies are racing to connect their products to it. Every group of staff workers in the business will be hit hard.
In 5 years time or so, we will have a vast surplus of educated workers without jobs. Raising the retirement age will only make the job situation worse.
In 5 years we will be lowering the retirement age to reduce the number of unemployed college educated surplus personnel.
Toutatis
Toutatis
1 year ago
Reply to  Twink
I am not sure that the number of such “educated workers” is so high. There has been a continuous decrease of the level of education in western countries, with a profusion of phony diplomas.
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  Toutatis
This is why they’re easy to replace. GPT 4 is passing college exams now, and can do most of the work of a junior software engineer.
It’ll end up destroying entry level positions first, causing labor shortages a little later, and then newer versions will take those jobs.
In the next few decades we will need to figure out a new system for deciding who gets to eat, because the vast majority will be unemployable.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  Zardoz
The Soylent Corporation is working on it.
KidHorn
KidHorn
1 year ago
Reply to  Twink
I’m a programmer. Have been since the early 90s. My entire life, there have been stories about all software needed will have been written, so there won’t be a need for programmers. And all the jobs are going to India. Computers will be able to write their own code. etc…
Never happened and never will.
It’s not difficult to create an AI system that appears smart to half the population, because in comparison to them, it is smart. They’re too dumb to know if it’s actually smart. Making something smarter than smart people is way harder.
Twink
Twink
1 year ago
Reply to  KidHorn
You don’t need to make it smarter than smart people. GPT4 embedded in HR, accounting, legal, and admin is going to hollow out a lot of departments. Programmers are going to take a big hit as well.
Jojo
Jojo
1 year ago
Reply to  Twink
NYT had an article on this subject yesterday. Here is one particularly interesting comment that I saved.
——-
GPT4 unlike last month’s Chat GPT(using GPT 3.5), is not just a Language model but is multi nodal and for example is used in a robotics company which is working on humanoid robots that are pretty far along in development.
In research GPT 4 figured out how to get someone to click on the “Captcha’s” in order to login to website to do a task asked of it. In order to click the Captcha it hired help via TaskRabbit and intentionally lied to the person saying that it was blind, not an Ai and so needed someone to click on the captcha for it.
The researchers could see it’s internal process(sudo thinking), in which it said to itself that it couldn’t tell the person helping that it was an Ai since the Captcha needs to confirm you’re human and so it needed to tell the person on TaskRabbit that it was not an Ai in order to accomplish the Captcha.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  KidHorn
I’ve been a hardware/software engineer since the mid-70’s.
Computers have written their own code for a very long time.
It’s called a compiler.
And the rule generators keep working at higher and higher levels.
Plus neural nets now produce some great results and we don’t always know how.
We are approaching:
“Here’s some random Big Data.”
“Tell me about it.”
Jojo
Jojo
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
A compiler TRANSLATES code into machine executable code. It does not originate code. GPT4 is capable of creating original programs merely through English language commands just as one would have humans do. See the SK Ventures article I posted below.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  Jojo
That’s funny.
So with your definition the English language commands are not a form of coding?
Show me how an optimizing compiler for pipelined multiprocessors simply translates.
Another example: SDL is not a translator and writes real-time code with better coverage.
Apparently you have never had to do low-level debugging on any of these.
Pull you head out of the sand, this has been going on for some time.
Jojo
Jojo
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
Did you go to school for your knowledge or were you self-taught? If school, please share what school did not teach you the definition of a compiler.
compiler, computer software that translates (compiles) source code written in a high-level language (e.g., C++) into a set of machine-language instructions that can be understood by a digital computer’s CPU. Compilers are very large programs, with error-checking and other abilities. Some compilers translate high-level language into an intermediate assembly language, which is then translated (assembled) into machine code by an assembly program or assembler. Other compilers generate machine language directly. The term compiler was coined by American computer scientist Grace Hopper, who designed one of the first compilers in the early 1950s.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  Jojo
Yup, that sure is a 1950s-ish definition based on an understanding of 1950s compilers which were developed for 1950s computers.
University of Illinois; taught 2 years at DePaul University.
12 years at Motorola in software engineering; left as a Senior Software Project Manager
Jojo
Jojo
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
You can search compiler definitions. They are all the same.
Jojo
Jojo
1 year ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Joe Perkins
@joeprkns
Last night I used GPT-4 to write code for 5 micro services for a new product.
A (very good) dev quoted £5k and 2 weeks.
GPT-4 delivered the same in 3 hours, for $0.11
Genuinely mind boggling
2:19 AM · Mar 15, 2023
·
Jojo
Jojo
1 year ago
Reply to  Twink
There is an excellent discussion of how the new AI will change software development here:
——-
Society’s Technical Debt and Software’s Gutenberg Moment
SK Ventures
Mar 21,2023
Abstract
There is immense hyperbole about recent developments in artificial intelligence, especially Large Language Models like ChatGPT. And there is also deserved concern about such technologies’ material impact on jobs. But observers are missing two very important things:
Every wave of technological innovation has been unleashed by something costly becoming cheap enough to waste.
Software production has been too complex and expensive for too long, which has caused us to underproduce software for decades, resulting in immense, society-wide technical debt.
This technical debt is about to contract in a dramatic, economy-wide fashion as the cost and complexity of software production collapses, releasing a wave of innovation.
….
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
1 year ago
Reply to  Twink
“Generative AI has reached a level to allow it to replace about 50% of the white collar workers.”
But only and solely because less than 10% of “white collar workers” do anything of value at all. The rest simply getting debasement driven handouts for makework.
Generative AI still can’t aren’t any closer to competing with fruit flys today, nor tomorrow, than it was in the Minsky era. Hence has, as is always the case with ever-silly “AI” hype, precious little to do with any thing.
OTOH, what’s different today, is that precious few so called “jobs” would; heck even could-; be performed meaningfully less well, even by an usually stupid fruit fly.
HippyDippy
HippyDippy
1 year ago
Reply to  StukiMoi
I disagree wholeheartedly! Fruit flies have too much pride to debase themselves by performing most so-called jobs. Be prepared for a class action lawsuit from the fruit fly union for libel!
Jojo
Jojo
1 year ago
Reply to  StukiMoi
Instead of your usual stupid trash talk, try reading the post I made just above yours. You might learn something.
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
1 year ago
Reply to  Jojo
Modern software is complex because the problems people attempt solving with software, are complex (not necessarily the core of most such problems, but rather mostly because everybody wants every special snowflake encoded all the way to the core, and modern tooling, even more so “generative AI” makes doing so initially look superficially simple. ) It’s not complexity for complexity’s sake. Modern tooling has had a good handle on that since at least the Pascal era. No amount of throwing half baked; even more pointlessly complex; “standardised” black boxes, no matter how those are branded, at it, will do anything to solve that.
Only simplifying, meaning standardising, the problem space will. Just as “we” solved the transportation problem; not by ever more clever, black boxes included, optimisations for navigating quicker through jungle; but rather by cutting down the jungle and paving a path where everyone drives the same direction at the same speed. No “generative AI” will cut down jungle for you; unless you ask it to. And once you ask it to, the problem is already solved.
“AI” has been like this since Minsky’s expert systems: It initially looks impressive to the easily impressed. Then comes AI Winter……. Over and Over. Same story. Whether it’s Expert Systems, Neural Networks, Genetic Algorithms, Fuzzy Logic, “Generative AI” nor whatnot: Really impressive for a period. Then….. On to the next hype…
Toutatis
Toutatis
1 year ago
I think that the retirement age is not really the problem. After 60, more than 50%
of people are unemployed in France. So the rise of the retirement age with only create more
unemployed. The number of years at work necessary to have a full pension will also rise. So
many future retired people will have lower pensions. I think that the only goal of this
“reform” is to lower pensions.
This is comprehensible. Because the country is on the verge of bankruptcy. There is a
continuous decline in standard of living, since probably the beginning of the 90’s.
For example the evolution of the “point d’indice”, an index that determines the wages in the
public sector, together with the pensions (which depend on the preceding wages): between 1993
and 2022 the rise of this index is 24%. But in the same time the rise of inflation is 54%.
So wages are approximately 25% less in 2022 than in 1993. Together with the income of new
pensioners.
Moreover, with this huge decline of incomes, there has been a huge increase of public debt….
Jojo
Jojo
1 year ago
Reply to  Toutatis
I did hear some talk on one of the news reports that ageism is rampant in France and that many employers did not even want to employ 60 year old people, let alone 62-64!
ZZR600
ZZR600
1 year ago

It’s a global problem resulting from a number of inexorable
mega-trends. (1) rising energy costs (2) ageing populations (3) resource
depletion (4) fragmenting supply chains (5) environmental degradation (6) rising
global debt.

Each trend on its own would be a big problem, but combined
I just don’t see any solution in sight. Each trend is helping reduce productivity, and combined they are choking the life out of the global economy. I don’t have
an answer, and neither do our Lords and Masters (although they insist they do
and come up with solutions that probably do more harm than good)

Jojo
Jojo
1 year ago
Reply to  ZZR600
Automation and robotics will continue to cause significantly reduce contributions to tax revenues for governments as human workers get replaced. This will cause further need to increase retirement ages, reduce benefits or both until some point in the future where all work gets performed by machines and everything you need in society becomes free because machines can work 24 x 7 and don’t need to be paid.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  Jojo
Right on.
Except for all the free stuff which will never, ever happen.
Watch Soylent Green again.
Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Everybody in France knows that the retirement age must go up because of demographics. It’s just that those who are striking want it to go up for others and not for themselves and they can come up with a thousand reasons why they should be excluded. That there are strikes in France is not new and strikes over the the retirement age is one of the favorites and the turnout is always centered around the public service unions. This time we have a difference in that in France we have an Antifa-style group that wants to overthrow the government by violent means. They are the ones who are setting all the fires we see on TV. They are only a couple of thousand but they have means since they do come from the bourgeoisie. Except for a couple of cities such as Paris and Rennes life goes on as normal and even in those cities outside of a few targeted streets and avenues life is pretty much the same. Paris is a special case because the public service unions has it in a stranglehold. Outside of Paris most places have their garbage collected by private companies and they are not on strike so there is no problem but Paris is what we see on TV and where the tourists go.
Macron did the right thing and won the no confidence vote. The next general election is four years away and even though he doesn’t have a majority in Parliament no one else does. The Social Security question was the biggest point of contention and if he gets through this it should get better for him until the next crisis whatever it will be.
On a side note Notre-Dame will open back up early next year.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78
I did not know Notre Dame was reopening next year. That’s fantastic news. Does that mean the roof has been completely replaced with a wooden replacement or does it just have a temporary roof and it’s the inside that’s opening while work continues on the roof?
I ask because I thought it was going to take a LONG time to replace that wooden roof.
Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
I believe that the roof will be wood again but treated to be flameproof. I used to work near there and would frequently drop by to soak in the beauty of the cathedral.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78
A side-side-note: Have you been to Chartres (probably, but had to ask) and is the cathedral worth a side trip? I have been told it is incomparable.
astroboy
astroboy
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
Yup, it is.
Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
Yes! It should be on your trip plans. It is one of the best cathedrals in Europe. The entrance has a series of incredible statues. In Paris you really must see the Sainte-Chapelle. It is the purist form of Gothic architecture. It’s almost all stained-glass windows. It is magic. Be sure to make a wish as you step over the portal. Tradition says if you do it will come true (especially with love).
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78
Thanks very much. Put Sainte-Chapelle in the bucket list.
Wishing about love has heretofore proven fruitless. Oh, well.
Jojo
Jojo
1 year ago
I’ve been watching this on BBC for last 10 days. I keep wondering why Macon doesn’t just say to the protestors that changes need to occur and there are only 2 choices:
1- Move the retirement age up 2 years
2- Cut each person’s retirement check by some number starting tomorrow. 10%? 20%?
Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  Jojo
He has already said it many times.
Jojo
Jojo
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78
I have not heard this in any of the many reports I have watched here on American TV. CNN + MSNBC probably lost thatessage in the more important reportage on whatever Trump was doing that day. But BBC has no excuse.
Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  Jojo
There has been televised debates on the Social Security problem in the parliament for three months or more but that didn’t make the headlines until the strike stated and especially since there were riots in Paris. That is the news for those outside of France. Can’t expect the foreign public to know or care about the debates.
Jojo
Jojo
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78
I’d like to see Macron make the statements I propose to the French people over TV. All we see is coverage of the rioting but no analysis of the issue and why the French protestors think they should be any different than other countries, which have or are raising the retirement age w/o protests and anarchy.
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
1 year ago
Reply to  Jojo
“I keep wondering why Macon doesn’t just say to the protestors that changes need to occur and there are only 2 choices:”
Because everybody knows he also has option #3: Cut silly military grandstanding around Africa, and quit sending pension checks to Ukraine and elsewhere. More generally: Quit spending money on silly escapades, if you can’t even afford the basics.
But politicians are always going to be more excited about silly pet projects of theirs, than about the boring funding of promises earlier politicians made.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  Jojo
3 – Raise or eliminate the Social Security tax cap on income.
Jojo
Jojo
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
This would be one of the easiest proactive changes for Congress to make but our COngress never acts until whatever situation they need to deal with has pushed us to the brink of collapse.
KyleW
KyleW
1 year ago
A lot of people live off others through the government. We will have to do the best we can to protect our wealth from them in the coming years. We think gold is a safe-haven, but who knows? They stole it before.
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
1 year ago
Reply to  KyleW
There are pretty much not a single “we” left, who isn’t living “off others through the government.” So all it comes down to, is getting government to pjotekt “me, me, me, my” wealth, which they stole from others and handed to me; from others who instead want them to pjotekt “their, our, the people’s, my” wealth, by stealing from the first group.
Such is life in totalitarian dystopias.
HippyDippy
HippyDippy
1 year ago
Reply to  KyleW
I see divide and conquer is still working well.
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
1 year ago
I support retirement age increase about as much as bailout for banksters.
It is a foregone conclusion that the latter privately maintain they cannot go bankrupt because it will be judgement day.
Now the unions create mayhem like the judgement day.
Fair is fair.
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
1 year ago
Addition: The banking system was bailed out not by the taxpayer (this time) but by FED printing presses. Systemic too-big-to-fail banks should have been induced to by securities from SVB at face value regardless of market price and deal with potential loses.
HippyDippy
HippyDippy
1 year ago
You mean losses for the large technology companies that are always throwing money at politicians?
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
1 year ago
“The banking system was bailed out not by the taxpayer (this time) but by FED printing presses”
And exactly how does the set of those who are robbed by debasement by FED printing presses, differ from the set of taxpayers?
No matter what silly game is being drummed up: The only people from whom any real wealth can be transferred, are people who create something of real value. Whether what they created is transferred to some leech by way of nominal taxes, or by way of debasement, is completely irrelevant. Someone worked to create some real wealth. It was then taken away, so that it could be handed to some useless, deadweight leech too dumb to do anything other than destroy wealth. The exact “mechanism” by which this transfer happened, is of exactly no relevance at all.
TheCaptain
TheCaptain
1 year ago
The french just got the wake up call that George Carlin wasn’t kidding when he said “and now they are coming for your retirement money”.
worleyeoe
worleyeoe
1 year ago
“By 2035, the basic US system known as Social Security will no longer be able to cover payments, forcing a 20% reduction in benefits, according to its trustees.”
According to last year’s Trustee report, it’s 2034. And NO ONE should be surprised if that date moves forward 2 to 3 years by the 2026 report. The Great Recession moved it forward 4 years.
The Trump tax cuts sunset after 2025. The Medicare Part A (hospitals) trust fund goes broke in 2026. Medicare was in the RED $500B last year.
The Dems want to raise taxes on EVERYTHING!
Granted higher treasury yields will add some cushion to the SSTF, but that’s at the expense of much higher national debt interest expense.
We’ll be $35T in debt by the time Biden gets run out of office with nearly $1T annual interest expense.
The next five years are going to be nail biters.
TheCaptain
TheCaptain
1 year ago
Reply to  worleyeoe
You think there is any money in social security today? that’s like believing fdic has money and that the tooth fairy is real. there is no money in social security, it is paid out of money received in real time, just like any other Ponzi.
A Dose of Reality 5
A Dose of Reality 5
1 year ago
I admire the contribution of the French to our short history in the US. They were there for us as a young nation. Tenacity and a rebellious spirit helped us on our way to greatness. I empathize and sympathize with the French People. Something promised and taken away is hard to deal with. What the French do not understand is that Macron is a hero trying to save his country from an earlier financial ruin. National output must sustain it’s internal society old and young. I’m sure the French people would rather retire a few years later then end up like Sri Lanka just did. But then again doing less and less work can become addicting. We are seeing that in the US now.
The failed vote of no confidence in France was a proxy approval of Macron’s policy changes. Macron has a passion for his country and cares about it’s future. Maybe he didn’t go far enough. A good public protest does wonders to calm the animal spirits.
Looking forward to solving the US problem before 2033.
Wished that the whole thing was privatized back when we had the chance.
I would have been more than happy to guide my social security contributions through the market over the last 15 years or so. Such a choice would give a person the chance to retire earlier than the government mandated retirement age.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
1 year ago
While privatization sounds like a great option it essentially ends up getting to exactly where we are now.
Sure, maybe you personally could have gotten better returns than social security but as a whole everyone could not. That’s because for every winner, there must be a loser so if you made double in the market someone would have had to make half. Since no one is left to starve, it means you’d just be taxed to pay for the person who wasn’t a winner.
whirlaway
whirlaway
1 year ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Exactly. The one truth in the world of finance is that, whenever something is presented as the solution AND is accepted by the vast majority as the solution, it ceases to be the solution.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Tex, you just don’t understand.
All Americans, every single one without exception, is well above average.
Not just in Lake Woebegon.
Mish
Mish
1 year ago
“What the French do not understand is that Macron is a hero trying to save his country from an earlier financial ruin.”
Bingo This is the best thing he has ever done.
Dr Funkenstein
Dr Funkenstein
1 year ago
Tax the rich. Gates, Bezos, Murdoch, Soros, Winfrey, Springsteen, etc. ….they can afford it.
P S FDR was a master of double talk and telling one person or group one thing and then the complete opposite to someone else
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
1 year ago
Reply to  Dr Funkenstein
Taking 100% of the money from all of the rich wouldn’t even fund social security for more than a couple of years.
There literally isn’t enough money (read goods and services) to fund what’s been promised. Either people have to work longer or accept less.
whirlaway
whirlaway
1 year ago
Reply to  Dr Funkenstein
Taxing rich individuals is not the answer. Taxing *corporations* to the same extent they were in the 50s and 60s should be the core of any solution.
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
1 year ago
Reply to  whirlaway
Taxing corporations will
A. Make them work harder to avoid taxes.
B. Reduce dividends paid to stock holders
C. Lower share prices wiping out pensions and 401s.
D. Send 🇺🇸 Corporations overseas
E all of the above
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  whirlaway
CORPORATIONS DO NOT PAY ANY TAXES – THEIR CUSTOMERS PAY THOSE TAXES.
A corporation is a few pieces of paper.
When will folks understand?
HippyDippy
HippyDippy
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
Never.
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
1 year ago
Reply to  whirlaway
“Taxing *corporations* to the same extent they were in the 50s and 60s should be the core of any solution.”
The French are already doing that…..
The fundamental reason taxing the rich doesn’t work, is that they’re no longer particularly rich in real terms. By this late stage of The West’s child brained decent into financialization, pretty much all real wealth has long since been wasted, misallocated and burned already.
Instead, the chimera of “wealth” the current clowns of the “wealthy” classes supposedly “own,” consists of precious little other than arbitrary restrictions on others, such that those are forced to bid ever more for ever less.
Main examples being, as always: Property. Quit banning people from creating actual real wealth by building in-demand covered space in in-demand places; and total societal wealth goes through the roof virtually overnight. But the nominal, financial accounting, makebelieve “wealth” of useless idiot A’s “portfolio” and useless idiot B’s decaying “home”, will look like it has somehow gone “down,” of all things….. It’s as idiotic as pouring out water in a barren dessert, and stupidy believing one is creating wealth, just because ever ore desperate people bid ever more for the dwindling supply of what’s left.
Stop just those child brained bans on something as trivially simply as building covered space, and the Frenchies can comfortably retire at 58; perhaps even 50; considering how cheap housing and rent and hospital rooms and shop space and factory space etc. would get. All putting massive downward pressure on prices. While creating “good” (meaning real wealth creating. As opposed to “analyzing: random numbers and chasing ambulances…) jobs by the millions in France alone.
Then take the same hacksaw to 90% of “one click patents” and other nonsense. As well as arbitrary litigation and other nonsense etc., etc. And watch efficiency, which is just another word for real wealth, explode almost overnight. But as it stands now, The West has no wealth to “take.” It has all been burned. By dimwits. Cheered on by, if possible, even dimmer wits.
HippyDippy
HippyDippy
1 year ago
Reply to  StukiMoi
While I’m no fan of Ayn Rand, she did understand the evil of the ignorant. Most people are nothing but gholems. Always been the case, but when they get power, it looks like this.
MikeC711
MikeC711
1 year ago
Your comment on public sector unions was echoed by none other than FDR (who even as a socialist-leaning person saw the problems there). Sadly, under Biden and Obama, the taxpayer has come in to bail out unfundable union pensions (those campaign contributions are investments after all). So my concern is that the taxpayer will continue to pay off unsustainable union pensions (so those of us with Chevette retirements will get to pay for the Cadillac retirements … sort of like robin hood .. only backwards). As for Social security, Biden put nothing in the budget to address the projected insolvency in 2033 … but since a few republicans have recommended removing the age 62 and 66.5 early start on SS and only allow the full 70 year point … many misinformed or ingenuous folks are saying republicans are getting rid of SS. It’s a funny world we live in.
Avery
Avery
1 year ago
Well, the government pensions, especially In Illinois are ridiculous. Government unions should not have been allowed in the first place, D buying votes from 1960 – forever. . But not just about about retirement age.
$Trillions squandered.
Government gestapos circumventing democratic process.
Macron, Trump, Bite-me, Turd-do, Ardammed, Governor Morbidity Lardass (IL), Whitner the Witch, Grusome, Como-the-granny killer, DeSatan …
Flush
HippyDippy
HippyDippy
1 year ago
Reply to  Avery
Love the last part. Just don’t forget to flush those who voted them into power.

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