Note: This is the change from March 31 to April 1. Another report is due today. 
Looking at the data, I would have expected an increase.
Understanding GDPNow
GDPNow is a “Nowcast Estimate” not a prediction. It’s a running estimate of what the BEA would report IF the BEA were to produce a GDP report at the current time.
Initial estimates often look and often are ridiculous. That’s not a bug it’s a design feature.
As economic reports come in, the nowcasts tend to stabilize, at least somewhat.
GDPNow Current Numbers
- Headline GDP Nowcast: 1.9 percent
- Real Final Sales: 1.4 percent
- Real Final Private Sales: 1.6 percent
Real Final Sales vs GDP
The difference between GDP and Real Final Sales (RFS) is Change in Private Inventories that nets to zero over time.
RFS is the actual bottom line number. For that reason, the BEA would be wise to throw the headline number in the garbage.
The Fed focuses on Real Final Private Domestic Sales. It’s currently between RFS and the topline estimate, but it could be the highest or lowest. It just happens to be in the middle now.
Dip on Strong Reports
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model dipped to 1.9 percent despite strong economic reports.
The two reports that went into this nowcast were retail sales and ISM.
Both were stronger than consensus expectations.
For example, the Bloomberg consensus retail sales estimate was 0.4 percent with actual sales at 0.6 percent. And the Commerce department revised January up 0.1 percent from -0.2 percent to -0.1 percent.
But I repeat my key points on estimating GDPNow reactions.
Key Point on Analyzing GDPNow Reports
It’s not the data that matters, but rather what the GDPNow model expected that really matters.
This is why people don’t understand how the model often reacts opposite the data reports.
For whatever reason, the model expected something better than the posted results for retail sales, ISM, or both.
Trade Data
My view is that January trade data, especially imports, were weak because importers held back waiting for the Supreme Court tariff decision.
On February 20, the Supreme Court ruled against Trump. Then the International Trade Court mandated refunds.
I now expect a surge in imports reversing the January numbers.
Given typical 20–36 day ocean transit + clearance, the real “mad rush” import catch up lands mostly in March data.
Later today we have much delayed trade data. But it’s for February, not March.
I doubt the GDPNow model expects bad numbers. But those bad numbers may be delated for a few more weeks.
Related Posts
February 20, 2026: Supreme Court Strikes Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs In 6-3 Vote (I Told You So)
Forgive me for bragging, but I got every justice correct.
March 11, 2026: Year-Over-Year CPI Inflation Will Worsen for at Least Three Months
This is an easy forecast. And it does not even include gasoline prices.
Do models expect that?
I worked on this report not realizing we have another GDPNow update later today. If there is a significant change, I will update my charts.
more European countries restricting American use of their military bases.
I am thinking they are talking with Iran about what they need to do to buy oil and this is one of Iran’s demands.
its looking like Trump put Iran in the driver’s seat.
It would be a net positive if the US closed a whole lot of bases. It would save a ton of money.
As with all his other cheating maybe Trump thinks he’s golfing and can just declare a mulligan at any time he wants?
TACO
Breaking: Trump plans 100% tariffs on pharmaceuticals.
Mo inflation for you Trumper chumps.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/02/trump-pharmaceutical-tariffs-100percent.html
Enjoy higher fuel AND drug prices MAGA morons.
Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™
Oh and kiss your medicare goodbye! The socialist leeches are in trouble now!
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-us-government-spending-cuts-medicare-daycare-iran-war-11772425
President Donald Trump has said the U.S. government “can’t take care” of child care, Medicaid or Medicare costs, suggesting states should fund the provisions while the federal government focuses on “military protection.”
“We’re fighting wars,” Trump told an audience at a White House Easter lunch on Wednesday, as seen in a video posted on and then removed from the White House’s website. “We can’t take care of day care.”
States should take more responsibility. Then there will be more due diligence and program monitoring. Having someone in Washington DC sending money across the US has no way of monitoring it accurately. Hence the easy fraud.
Medicare being considerably more cost-efficient than private insurance indicates that is bullshit.
That just means your state and federal tax burden will go up
Military spending is part of GDP and gooses it even if the consumer is constrained.
All government spending contributes to GDP no matter how worthless.
WTI trading premium to Brent….oooffffaaaa
Stone-age indeed
That should not last long…
Every time you and your farm boys fill up at the gas station, I’m collecting profits. I’m having so many profitgasms that my prostate hurts.
It’s true, the best of absolutely everything is yet to come!
well MISH MUST REPORT on this. and thank you!
but it is meaningless
=====
as i posted many times USA GOV RUNS $3 tlrn deficit in 2026.
probably it will be $3.5 trln by winter.
====
lets say USA gov would want just cut $500 bil. so it is negative GROWTH
lets say $1 trln . it is depression!
lets say just to cut half of deficit .. $1.5 trln . IT IS INSTANT GREAT DEPRESSION V 2.0
========
it is all over.. NOTHING WILL SAVE USA FROM BANKRUPTCY!!!
it is USSR in 1985 ..
only in USSR it was political issue (main problem – single communist party rule)
and in USA it is strictly deficit spending. both parties are guilty!
alx
Exactly, and there is no cure other than to start chipping away at the debt and that does not happen as long as there is a deficit. Accounting gimmicks do not work nor does economic stimulus. As I posted in another thread, the US for fy 2025 had a deficit of $1.8 trillion for GDP growth of $0.8 trillion. Stimulus now has negative efficacy, so the fed cannot fix the problem.
It’s appropriate Trump is planning a memorial hotel in Miami, not a library
…Mirrors on the ceiling
The pink champagne on ice
And she said, “We are all just prisoners here
Of our own device”
And in the master’s chambers
They gathered for the feast
They stab it with their steely knives
But they just can’t kill the beast
Last thing I remember
I was running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
“Relax, ” said the night man
“We are programmed to receive
You can check out any time you like
But you can never leave”
5D chess playing out just as Trump planned all along….trust the plan. /s
Long gas lines and panic are all showing Iran how important their oil and Strait is to the world. Trump really screwed the pooch on this one. Won’t be surprised if Iran ends up in a stronger position at some point in future.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/04/02/iran-war-fuel-shortages-violence/
Trump only has one dimension and that is himself. If you drew a Venn diagram of Trump’s concept of the universe, there would be two circles. The largest circle would be Trump and the universe would be a small circle completely enclosed by the large Trump circle. The universe is a subset of Trump.
This morning:
Brent 109
WTI 109
Dow Futures: -700
Bond yields up: https://www.cnbc.com/bonds/
I guess Trump’s speech last night was a joke.
All his speeches are a joke. Like no one has ever seen before.
And sadly, while he causes a global recession, all we little people can do is find ways to profit from his stupidity.
I deployed 10% of my cash position into more oil stocks yesterday. Should have gone bigger.
I did buy-writes on XLE and banked serious profits yesterday. I knew the clown was bluffing about the war ending, he’s just trying to calm markets but even if true, too much damage done in ME for oil to go back to lower levels.
Eventually oil will drop with a global depression so stay long and stay short!
Now Brent is $ 108 and WTI 111!
Crude oil shortages resulting from Trump’s war are collapsing the global economy. The US will be the last to feel the pain, but it’s already baked in the cake.
US recession is coming. The only issue now is how bad it will be.
= The US will be the last to feel the pain,
not so sure..
as far debt concerns USA IS NUMBER =1
most countries / people in europe are quite frugal.
========
Germany is 60% debt/gdp
in china people save like crazy and save 40% of income , put savings into real estate. no matter what they still have place to live.
++ they have very strong family traditions over there. 2-3 generations help each other and on…
alx
@ mish
Please check the “spam”.
Rising gasoline prices will cause a lot of folks to add some caution to their spending. Imports will increase, but prices won’t decline as businesses fight to keep their margins. AI is suppressing hiring for white collar jobs, and it should, it is what AI is actually good at doing.
Rising gas prices represents forced spending. Remove it from discretionary spending or savings, if, the particular consumer has their head above water.