GDPNow Latest Forecast: 3.8% – July 6, 2018
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 3.8 percent on July 6, down from 4.1 percent on July 2. Since the last GDPNow update on Monday, July 2, the nowcasts of second-quarter real consumer spending growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth have declined from 2.9 percent and 7.1 percent, respectively, to 2.7 percent and 6.0 percent, respectively. These declines more than offset an increase in the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth from 0.62 percentage points to 0.70 percentage points after this morning’s international trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Nowcast Latest Forecast: 3.8% – July 6, 2018
Volatility Comparison
As GDPNow continues its volatile trend the New York Fed Nowcast shows virtually no movement on anything.
For a discussion of the GDPNow ISM bounce, please see “Dynamic Factor” Boosts GDPNow Following ISM: Email Discussion With Pat Higgins.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
You are correct Tony. Healthcare has gone up as well as housing in those three years. I live outside of (and work in) Seattle. My job is a professional position so a fairly high paying job (hospital lab) so we aren’t just talking low wage positions. I do not understand people believing this economy is robust.
There is no sustainable wage growth.
Paper’s don’t really exist anymore- no one post legitimate jobs there. As for on-line job-sites, often most postings our just re-tread from agencies.
Congratulations on your rise! Now, the next question I have has your healthcare cost gone down or up significantly over the past three years. I’m guessing up. There has been no meaningful recovery. The system is spent. It completely collapse in 2008. The sooner we accept it the quicker we can develop meaningful solutions to fix it.
At least I finally got a raise, of course it amounts to 2% a year for three years. Hooray…
Yes, it is. You don’t honestly believe that. We are seeing absolutely no wage growth- period. I live in one of the so-called tony areas of the Bay Area. Most of the restaurants our empty and their is vacancys all over the place. The labor market is totally manipulate. 3 of my neighbors have been let go at Fortune 2000 companies over the last 2 months.
Repeat, there has been no really recovering. It’s all a mirage.