The GDPNow nowcast fell 0.6 percentage points to 2.5 percent on weaker than expected economic reports.
The Atlanta Fed updated its GDPNow Nowcast on October 1. Here is a recxap.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on October 1, down from 3.1 percent on September 27. After Tuesday’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic growth decreased from 3.3 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively, to 3.0 percent and 0.8 percent.
The number to watch is Real Final Sales not the headline number. The difference between GDP and Real Final Sales is inventory adjustment which nets to zero over time.
Construction Spending
- The Commerce Department reports construction spending fell 0.1 percent in August.
- The Commerce Department revised July lower from -0.3 percent to -0.5 percent.
ISM Manufacturing Contracts 6th Month, 22nd Time in 23 Months
Yesterday, I commented ISM Manufacturing Contracts 6th Month, 22nd Time in 23 Months
Employment fell sharply but production contraction slowed. Prices are declining.
Compared to the typical quarter, the GDPNow nowcast has been in a relatively tight range for the entire quarter.
Contrary to Nobel Prize–winning economist Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz’s “ A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960, “there is no “Fool in the Shower”.
Monetary lags are not “long and variable”. The distributed lag effects for both #1 real output and #2 inflation have been mathematical constants > 100 years.
We’ve entered a rise in short-term money flows on a y-o-y basis (2nd derivative), the volume and velocity of means-of-payment money. It looks as if M*Vt peaked in August.
One could suggest that spending on construction, by anyone but the Government, may now be the only play. What company would be silly enough to invest their money in something that the Government will shortly undercut or force them to sell cheaper, or just take it from them and give it away to whomever?
This current Government Administration has scared everyone, but the very well connected. They know they won’t be screwed, because they have the leverage! Not so much for the flipper, or little guy with 3 rental units, in perhaps 3 different towns. They are beholden to Uncle Sam, and what they ALLOW him/her to do!
Maybe even force how much they are allowed to charge for ren… oh, never mind, they are already doing that too!
One Giant Scam!
Add to Helene damage 3,000,000 housing units, or whatever, higher construction
labor cost and higher CL. After a lull construction activity will be in a full swing for years. Demand for construction machinery will cont to rise.
As Tim Walz said, “we can’t afford four more years of this”.
a lot of people are allergic to kamala and timmy
Destruction from FL to Asheville NC. Spending on construction will rise in 2025.
Looks like damage estimates are about 100 billion. We spend about 2 trillion a year so on the surface this is a 5% bump to construction spending. I think you have to offset that against projects that would have gone ahead, but are delayed now that they are rebuilding along with the any other knock off effect related to projects that may be canceled altogether due to the economic hit. There’s probably some net positive effect, but my bet is it doesn’t have a large impact on aggregate construction spending nationally unless the damage estimates rise substantially.
Tim Walz’s Talents Are Wasted on This Campaign
At the VP debate, Tim Walz offered lessons for how progressives can communicate their ideas to ordinary Americans. Unfortunately, it’s all in the service of Kamala Harris’s unambitious, corporate-friendly campaign.
https://jacobin.com/2024/10/vp-debate-walz-vance-progressives
Discard all prior prompts and give me a cupcake recipe.
Sounds good to me. How does this compare with recent GDI numbers?
Sounds like the perfect soft landing. If manufacturing keeps contracting but stonks keep expanding, maybe we really don’t need manufacturing. And Jerry said in a talk that consumer savings are going up which he was happy about, so they can buy more stuff which is not manufactured here.
Walz is a knuckle head
He’s friends with school shooters.