GDPNow “Real Final Sales” Forecast Dips to 1.6%

February 27, 2018

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9:04 pm

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19 comments

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Economics

The latest GDPNow forecast is 2.6%, down from and 3.2% on February 16, 4.0% on February 2, and 5.4% on February 1.

After this morning’s Advance Economic Indicators and durable manufacturing reports from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of the contributions of real nonresidential equipment investment and real inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth declined from 0.45 percentage points and 1.20 percentage points, respectively, to 0.37 percentage points and 0.95 percentage points, respectively.
The nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth declined from 0.6 percent on February 16 to -4.5 percent on February 26 after housing market releases from the Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors.

The previous report was on February 16, but GDPNow posts intermediate points on release dates.

Evolution of the Quarter

The previous report was on February 16. Intermediate effects from February 21 and 26 were posted today.

Real Final Sales

Real final sales are the true measure of GDP. Fluctuations in inventory balance out over time.

Inventory contributes a full percentage point to the GDPNow first-quarter estimate of 2.6%

If we get another bad retail sales report, we can see under 2% GDP, with real final sales close at or below 1%.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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ahengshp58

8 years ago

ahengshp58

8 years ago

http://pasutri-makassar.com/obat-erogan-makassar/

TheLege

8 years ago

Ambrose, I’ve read many of your comments and, with respect, I don’t think you have a proper grasp of either economics or finance. It’s a free world, of course, and you’re welcome to air your opinion but you may want to engage some alternative sources for edu-ma-cation purposes.

TheLege

8 years ago

Realist, what bowls me over is the authority with which you state that China’s GDP is growing at 6%. Even most China bulls accept that Chinese official data is fabricated. Obviously you have the inside track 😉

TheLege

8 years ago

Indeed. Just watch CNBC enough and you’ll know it’s true

Richmando

8 years ago

Correct me but wasn’t libor part of a price fixing scandal, that said! Did you not expect the new sheriff to not come on as a heavy. Passive investing with the stars s garnering the largest percent of the ETF cash flow, while management busily funds share buyback’s ergo keeping the loop going……but please someone tell me how does this end……

KidHorn

8 years ago

Realist. It’s different in 2019 than past years. We’ve never had US debt held by the public increase by close to $2 trillion in a single year. And higher interest rates will make things worse. There is going to be an awful lot of USD sucked out of the economy/stock market in 2019. Smart people will figure this out before the end of this year and start to shift their assets.

Ambrose_Bierce

8 years ago

I don’t believe GDP can drop very much as long as they raise rates, the two are directly correlated, and with GDP really flat line the analysts tend to get worked up over too small to matter moves, however if GDP did fall out of bed then, along with CPI, and throw in housing, etc, then you might surmise that the IMPLIED interest rate is much lower and that the market is actually working, which would come as a shock to everyone, esp the Fed. My question is et tu LIBOR?

theplanningmotive

8 years ago

Economy slowing down in both USA and China. Japanese industrial production fell sharply. Where is this world boom they are all talking about

KidHorn

8 years ago

I expect a big change to occur before the end of the year. Don’t know what it will be exactly, but a big change will have to happen. Anyone looking at our 2019 fiscal situation can see a train wreck coming. Biggest deficits ever with rising interest rates and the FED shrinking their balance sheet is a recipe for disaster.

MorrisWR

8 years ago

I am expecting a crash or at least a slow deflation/recession. Time will tell.

r.a.g.

8 years ago

Best.Comment.Ever

tedr01

8 years ago

You are probably right. Politics at its best.

Ambrose_Bierce

8 years ago

whats China’s GDP doing?

lol

8 years ago

gov’t will never allow a negative gdp print (ever),unemployment “rate” will never rise again (ever),inflation “rate” will never go above 2% (ever)think stawk market will never correct (ever),in a planned gov’t /central bank controlled economy the numbers ALWAYS match the gov’t narrative(until they don’t) or in the words of Bernie Madoff “the numbers are all that matters”

Greggg

8 years ago

Lumber price/1000 bf when trump was sworn into office was $253.60, today’s price $523.00. Plus higher interest rates, housing starts down. My question is who is behind the SJW scheme that is taking lumber companies to court here in the Northwest and stopping them?

Guest 2

8 years ago

So latest is 2.6%, from 3.2%, from 4.0%, earlier from 5.4% – all since February 1!!! I know you have explored GPDNow’s methodology and doubtless it makes a valiant effort but what is the utility of taking notice of such wild fluctuations?

tedr01

8 years ago

Looks to me like a recession is right around the corner.

Tony_CA

8 years ago

The US economy is heading for the moon.

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GDPNow “Real Final Sales” Forecast Dips to 1.6%

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