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Global Growth? Retail Sales Flop in US, UK, Canada, Germany, Australia

February 23, 2018

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10:32 am

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9 comments

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Economics

On February 14, I noted US Retail Sales Dive, Negative Revisions Too. This will impact both 4th quarter and first quarter GDP estimates.

On February 22, Bloomberg reported Canadian Retail Sales Drop Unexpectedly.

“Receipts fell 0.8 percent to C$49.6 billion in the last month of 2017, Statistics Canada reported Thursday. It was the biggest monthly decline since March 2016. Economists were expecting no change during the month.”

On February 16, the Financial Times reported UK retail sales figures disappoint. The results were positive but barely.

“The volume of retail sales grew by 0.1 per cent month-on-month, far below analysts’ expectations of 0.5 per cent growth in January, according to a poll from Thomson Reuters. On the year, sales were up by 1.6 per cent, from 1.4 per cent, far below expectations for a 2.6 per cent rise.”

On January 31, Reuters reported German Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fall in December.

On February 6, Business Insider reported Australian retail spending for the Christmas was far weaker than many were expecting.

Given the Fed’s outlook and increasing expectations of four rate hikes plus tapering in the US, tapering in the EU, and rate hikes in the UK, such reports must be meaningless.

Also note the IMF made a “Brighter Forecast” for the global economy in January. When has the IMF ever been wrong?

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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ahengshp58

8 years ago

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ahengshp58

8 years ago

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Advancingtime

8 years ago

It is not only retail sales that have issues. The road ahead looks very challenging for automakers. Problems are building and lurking around every corner. The combination of overcapacity coupled with high consumer debt and higher interest rates paint an ugly picture going forward. When you add in the fact millions of vehicles are coming off leases the challenge facing automakers becomes formidable.

Delinquencies on subprime loans made by non-bank lenders are soaring toward crisis levels just as some of the big banks long friendly to this sector have pulled back from the auto lending business. To top it off, state regulators are circling the industry and looking at whether it preyed on borrowers and put them in cars they couldn’t afford. More on the problems automakers face in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2018/02/automakers-face-ugly-and-bumpy-road.html

stillCJ

8 years ago

Is it possible the main consumers have finally gotten saturated with “stuff”? My wife told me today everyone she knows is trying to sell extra unwanted “stuff”. Then again, everything made in China will have to be replaced in a year or so…..

Carl_R

8 years ago

This post puzzles me. If I read the table right, sales appear to be up year over year by about 4% from January a year ago. Yes, January sales are down from December, but isn’t that always true? What am I missing?

TheLege

8 years ago

Realist, you can only be a troll . Your opinions are, for the most part, awful. If you’re not trolling, you’re a dunce. Sorry, but this is the truth. We (the global economy) are in a once in multi-generation crisis the likes of which won’t be seen for several generations hence. The (social, forget financial) fallout is going to be ‘off the dial’. People with limited means who are relying on inheritances will, instead, end up looking after the very people they were meant to be be inheriting from. You have a handful of years to prepare for the fallout. Wake and smell the coffee or wake up and deal with the fallout when the day arrives.

caradoc-again

8 years ago

ECB accuses Trump of currency war as Euro strengthens – hitting exports. Meanwhile German export markets fall back due to domestic consumer stresses. Who is heavily dependent on exports? Who gets a double whammy? Any consequences?

caradoc-again

8 years ago

Consumer tapped out. What happens to major exporters when their markets pull in their horns? Will Germany stimulate home demand as it could take a large export hit and is very export lead? What ripple effects?

MorrisWR

8 years ago

Lower spending, lower saving rates, increased debt and stagnant wages. Everything is awesome.

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Global Growth? Retail Sales Flop in US, UK, Canada, Germany, Australia

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