Tariffs will wipe out up to a quarter of GMs’ net profit for the year.
GM Faces Up to $5 Billion Tariff Bill in 2025, Slashes Outlook
The Wall Street Journal reports GM Faces Up to $5 Billion Tariff Bill in 2025, Slashes Outlook
The country’s largest automaker said it faces $4 billion to $5 billion in tariff-related costs this year, which it aims to partially offset by pulling back on spending and increasing production at its U.S. factories.
GM said Thursday that it now expected its full-year net profit to be between $8.2 billion and $10.1 billion, down from a prior projection of $11.2 billion to $12.5 billion. The company reported its first quarter earnings on Tuesday, but postponed its full-year guidance until after President Trump announced his revised tariff structure.
“Adapting to this dynamic environment will take some time,” GM’s Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson told analysts on call Thursday.
Chief Executive Mary Barra said the company planned to reduce its tariff bill by building more pickups at its Fort Wayne, Ind., factory and making more electric-vehicle battery modules in the U.S. The company said it was also looking to trim costs where it could. “We are scrutinizing our discretionary spending everywhere,” Barra said on the call.
GM imports its most affordable vehicles, such as the Chevrolet Trax and Buick Envista, from South Korea. Imports from that country and other costs accounted for $2 billion of the company’s estimated tariff bill, Jacobson said.
Earlier this week, GM said net income slid 6.6% to $2.8 billion in the first quarter of 2025, a decrease driven in part by higher costs and a preplanned production halt that dented sales of some trucks and SUVs.
GM said sales rose 17% during the first three months of the year, but believed that much of that increase was due to people and businesses purchasing vehicles ahead of Trump’s tariffs. The company expects sales to slow down for the remainder of 2025.
GM will bring some production back to the US. Prices will go up and GM will sell less cars.
Not Exactly Thrilled
On March 26, I noted News Flash: Trump Says “Car Companies Will Be Thrilled With Tariffs”
The word of the hour is “thrilled” by 25 percent tariffs on autos starting April 2.
The Ford CEO, GM CEO, and Cox Automotive chief economist Jonathan Smoke say they are not thrilled by the tariffs.
But Trump says they are thrilled.
First-Quarter 2025 GDP, the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
Earlier today, I noted First-Quarter 2025 GDP, the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
Here’s a more detailed look at GDP for the first quarter.
Trump Accuses Amazon of “Hostile Political Act” on Tariff Price Labels
Yesterday, I noted Trump Accuses Amazon of “Hostile Political Act” on Tariff Price Labels
Amazon considered, then rescinded, price tags that show tariff impact.
Hostile Political Act
Amusingly, it is now considered political act to tell the truth. Go figure.
And it gets straight to the heart of the matter as to who pays tariffs.
Rather than answer the question, the administration blames Amazon.
Every company should do what Amazon proposed to show what big liars the administration is.
Every company should do what Amazon threatened to do. Unfortunately, Amazon backed down.
the post ww2 few decades was aberration. usa was untouched by 2 world wars. a village idiot in 50s through the 90s could live large in usa. it was a very lucky time to come of age. no need to even think.
It wasn’t a lucky time for boomers who were shipped off to fight in Vietnam and came home in a box.
rounding error compared to what a ww3 would have been. my brother shipped out. he was an idiot. canada was so easy. it ruined his life. pax dumbfuckistan is a very evil empire. let’s keep bombing the poorest lands from nam to yemen to ukraine…………with our money and blood. WMD anyone. 9.11 was PNAC project.
Jobs number blows away expectations but Trump says it’s Biden’s overhang.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/01/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Payrolls grew by 177,000 last month, above the 133,000 that economists polled by Dow Jones had anticipated. That figure is still down sharply from the 228,000 added in March. The unemployment rate stood at 4.2%, in line with expectations.
Trump says everything good is part of the Trump market and economy
Trump says everything bad is part of the Biden market and economy
If you can’t see that, you’re intellectually self-blinded
Trump and Steve Witkoff are RE developers and landlords. Steve knows nothing about Putin, Iran and Hamas. He listens to nobody. He wants to reshuffle US RE assets. He might write off highly risk assets like: Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel, while buying new assets in the global monopoly. India has two land border enemies: China and Pakistan, both are nuclear powers. Steve knows that proliferation is out of control. He will sign whatever with Iran and move on. India is the biggest winner. This superstate will stab us in the back eat us alive.
Warning to GM bondholders. First, you’re nuts — the company shouldn’t even be in business. Second, if the company gets into trouble again, and it will due to horrible management (we’re going to stop selling electric cars by 2035) and UAW greed, you will get re-screwed. Get out while you can.
The 2009 GM bailout, while aiming to save the company and the broader auto industry, had a significant impact on bondholders, who were not fully protected in the restructuring. The government’s intervention, while leading to GM’s recovery, resulted in a shift in ownership and a restructuring that favored other stakeholders, including the UAW, over bondholders.
GM, after being the largest corporation on the planet Earth at one time, went bankrupt and out existence. Common Stockholders were wiped out. The new GM is a different corporation.
Apple to Source Billions of US-Made Chips in Supply Chain Shift
(Bloomberg) — Apple plans to source more than 19 billion chips from the US this year, part of a global supply chain shift to gradually lessen its reliance on China and elevate India for iPhone production.
Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook talked about leaning more heavily on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. , which is expanding its Arizona operations to half a dozen plants.
He also affirmed expectations that Apple will in future make the vast majority of its US-bound iPhones in India — reducing output from China as the Donald Trump administration threatens to slap punitive tariffs on its Asian rival. India was mentioned almost as many times as China on Thursday’s post-earnings conference call, reflecting its rising importance.
Cook however was mum on a series of questions about how potential tariffs on consumer electronics may affect Apple’s business, saying “it’s very difficult to predict beyond June.” Chief Financial Officer Kevan Parekh said Apple’s commentary on the call assumes that current global tariff rates and policies remain in effect and that the global macroeconomic outlook doesn’t worsen.
The Cupertino, California-based company’s much-awaited quarterly earnings report failed to soothe investor concerns about its biggest challenges, including escalating tariff costs and a slowdown in China. The company’s shares declined as much as 4.2% in late trading Thursday after Apple released second-quarter results that included worse-than-expected sales in China.
Apple has accelerated its manufacturing expansion in India, which is both rising as a market — at a time when Apple’s China sales keep declining — and is likely to be a more politically favored US trade partner over the long run. Apple already makes 20%, or one in five, of its iPhones in the South Asian country. It expects to import most of the iPhones for the US from India by the end of next year.
“We have a complex supply chain, there’s always risk in the supply chain,” Cook told analysts on the call. “What we learned some time ago was that having everything in one location had too much risk with it and so we have, over time, with certain parts of the supply chain, not the whole thing, but certain parts of it, opened up new sources of supply.”
Beyond India, Trump wants Apple to begin building its devices in the US. But that’s unlikely to happen at scale in the foreseeable future. For now, Cook pledged to ramp up local procurement of chips and other components.
The iPhone maker will obtain tens of millions of advanced processors from a new facility in Arizona operated by TSMC this year, Cook said. That’s started making processors for low-end iPads and Apple Watches, Bloomberg News has reported. Apple and TSMC have both announced US investments amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars in line with the White House’s push to bring advanced manufacturing to the country.
Trump’s administration has imposed tariffs on goods imported from China and threatened additional levies to other nations who don’t negotiate new trade agreements over the coming weeks. Some electronics including iPhones are at present exempt.
The Apple CEO also discussed how the company sources glass for iPhone screens from the US, likely referring to Corning Inc. Earlier this year, Apple said it would invest $500 billion in the US over the next four years, including by manufacturing AI servers at a plant in Texas.
key statement, “it’s very difficult to predict beyond June.”
meanwhile, vo-tech’s springing up across America for classes on how to screw in all those tiny screws on a phone, whole generations signing up
I don’t think anyone I know has the imagination to predict what Zion Don and his inner cult leadership will do for the next 3 and 3/4 years. It’s too wild to even try and guess. I better start asking some 19 year old art students to ponder.
is not Mish in Utah? https://www.propublica.org/article/utah-farmers-therapy-mental-health-suicide-rates?
amerikans are depressed. living in a world wide war mongering empire has disadvantages to the human spirit.
98% of the omnipresent Trump gear has disappeared in my purple area in the last six weeks.
No worries. The $2 billion someone from a quite foreign power just (allegedly) shoveled into Trump’s family scam-coin should help redress any imbalances. Bonus: I’m sure it clears DOJ “scrutiny.”
Pam Bondi always scrutinizes everything fairly /s
– Tariffs will wipe out up to a quarter of GMs’ net profit for the year. > I see the WSJ is pumping up the rhetoric yet again. So a few quick, and what should be “Easily Answered” questions, seeing as how They are so full of wisdom.
1. What is GM’s “Gross Profit” for 2025? You MUST know, if you know the NET…
2. What is the “Final Tariff %” that was settled on by ALL Parties Involved? You MUST know that, if you know “Your Loss IS 25%”…
3. What is the “Final Tally” that was “Sold, Rented, Stored, Unbuilt” Etc. You MUST know this exact number I would guess. You obviously didn’t order material for any additional numbers or your Gross/Net would change. So what’s the “Total Sales” for The Year?
4. As. Usual The WSJ has “No Clue” what’s going on, and it’s a puff piece for hits, and to hopefully get more pressure on the Party in Office. It would be nice IF They could work with US and Not Against Us all the time…
5. When everything is set in stone, as in finalized. Negotiations have stopped, and orders can be placed for what Will Be Needed, THEN we may truly know, or be closer to factual at least…
You speak as if the GOP ever cooperates with anything outside their party.
Rather than reading the headline, or even the MSM news article, you can just go read the source. GM’s quarterly report is readily available online. It’s GM’s *estimate* (NOT the WSJ’s!) that tariff’s and turmoil will reduce profit by 1/4 to 1/3 for the year.
The WSJ is just a messenger. And yes, it’s an estimate because they don’t know.
Ok, so here’s what those crazy Chinamen have been up to.
They have been dumping treasuries and mortgage backed securities and buying up European sovereign debt obligations. They are selling so much that the real rate of return on 10 year treasuries is about 2%. That is 2% after inflation, and it is even higher for longer dated maturities. This is unreal for treasuries. Meanwhile European bonds are paying less than their inflation rate. So buying those bonds is a guaranteed loss in value over time.
Under normal circumstances this would grenade the Euro, but the Chinese are just buying so much of the currency for dollars that it has sent the Euro higher against the dollar.
The sheer monetary losses the Chinese are suffering are enormous.
The Europeans lowered their interest rate just this week and are looking to do it again in June. They are also gonna issue a huge amount of bonds supposedly for defense, but the politicians will squander the funds on pet projects.
The only problem is that trade follows investment flows. The Europeans are gonna be swamped by Chinese goods.
You do realize that the real rate of return on 10y TIPS has been >2% for nearly 2 years already? Since 2023. Not “unreal”, very real. It has nothing to do with China “dumping” (which they aren’t, and even if they were, wouldn’t matter).
It’s not just GM, look at some of the headlines on CNBC this morning:
“Apple shares fall as Cook says ‘very difficult’ to predict tariff costs beyond June”
“Block shares plunge 18% as company takes ‘cautious stance,’ issues weak guidance for year”
“Amazon CEO Jassy says he’s ‘optimistic’ company could emerge from tariff uncertainty stronger”
“Airbnb issues disappointing revenuge guidance for second quarter”
This has recession written all over it, if not now then very soon. And god help you if you’re a small business that imports stuff from China, you’ll likely go bankrupt soon enough. Big firms at least have the money to pay tariffs, not so for the little guy.
Dollar General $1 dollar became $2 dollars. AAPL assemble Iphones in China for a $100 and sell it for $1,200. GM profit might be down from $13B to $8B/$10B. The US gov is the biggest landlord in the world. They lend trillions to single homes, multi apt units and offices. When mortgage rates rise from 3% to 7% they are happy. When a greedy landlord buys an overpriced multi unit and raise rent by a 100% the gov approves the loan. But when delinquencies and vacancies rates are rising the gov is worried about their asset. They become more conservative. They have to cut the budget deficit. Trump wouldn’t mind a recession and lower Fed rates first, bc demand for highly skilled workers prevents a RE glut, delinquencies and defaults.
My local Dollar store still charges $1.25 for most items. Are you talking about their Canadian stores?
stagflation is on the menu. this will be combo 1970s and 1930s. buckle up kids. bubble of everything bursting with higher prices for staples.
I have been telling everyone that will listen to pay down any and all debt ASAP. Holding debt during an interim deflationary collapse is not where you want to be.
correct. debt is really a curse for most normal humans.
Pat, I’d like to solve the puzzle-
AMAZON GETS COOKED
Yes, Amazon employs 1 million people in the US and Trump is going to “smoke” them as you say.
https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/workplace/our-workforce-data
Jeff Bezos will be fine, he’ll just buy government bonds and let you the tax payer make him even richer.
More likely it will be the US business of Shein, Temu and Ali Express, who used to be able to ship directly to US consumers without paying tariffs. No more.
Category “wishful thinking” for $1,000, Alec
Jeff unloads another $5bn in stock.
meanwhile regarding the peasants: Federal Cuts Gut Food Banks as They Face Record Demand The collision between rising demand and falling support is especially problematic for rural communities, where the federal program might cover 50% or more of food supplied to those in need https://kffhealthnews.org/news/article/food-banks-snap-benefits-federal-cuts-rural-needs/
Trump pauses 90 reciprocal tariffs but hikes duties on China
Apr 9, 2025 What happens on July 8, 2025? Let me conjecture: The goal post will be moved?
that is the problem with a schizo dumbfuck as potus. btw, most don’t seem to understand what the republic of plato warned thousands of years ago. democracy works. if you have dumbfucks and grifters in your city state or empire, you will elect the same. look in the mirror or family and friends photos……..for the answer. you will see many trumps, bidens and mitch and chuckies…….
The 50Y era of peace and tranquility was a short blip in history. It was all about power until the 1940’s/1950’s and the LT trend will cont from now on. After GM lost Europe most of their profit and sales are done in the US. Overcapacity and redundancies are growing. China might confiscate GM assets as the Saudie did with ARAMCO in the 70’s. GM current market cap is $43B. Debt: $133B. Mary Barra might “trim” UAW employees in order to finance capex, before hiring them back to produce $50K/$80K pickup trucks.
President Donald Trump is asking Congress for deep cuts to domestic agencies and a boost to the military in a preliminary outline of his 2026 budget request to be released Friday.
The president’s budget calls for for $557 billion in non-defense spending next year, which represents a cut of $163 billion from current levels, according to administration officials who described the document on the condition of anonymity before its public release. National security funding would increase to $1.01 trillion, a 13% increase from $892.3 billion.
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bloomberg!
Trump Budget Seeks 23% Domestic Spending Cut, 13% Defense Hike
MAGA MY AS11S!!!!!!
IT IS BIG CLUB AND YOU AIN’T IN IT. (C) GEORGE CARLIN
Pentagon is the closest thing to industrial policy the US has. Overcharging on procurement is the way to keep MIC afloat.
If China invades Taiwan and N.K exchange blows with S.Korea there will be no chips, no Kia & Hyundai and no Trax. The 50Y era of peace and tranquility is fading fast. Get used to it. GM profit will be down from $11B/$13B to just $8B due to slowing down, tariffs and increasing their industrial base in the US instead of China.. It’s better than going bk.
=The 50Y era of peace and tranquility is fading fast.
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remind us what as before 50Y era of peace and tranquility???
like something 500 years before!
start w/ Spanish colonial empire, French colonial empire, Dutch colonial empire, British colonial empire, slave triangle etc
do you know how many bla11cks died during that glorious period?
Jewish holocaust is just picnic on Sunday day on a lake!!!
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and how many coupes USA gov did in 20 th century.. or how many countries Obama-bush-Trump-Kennedy bombed?
btw buddy, do you original name of New York city? i know.
alx
i live walking distance from oldest dutch church and school in nyc
You’re leaving out 3000 years of massacres in China, Great Wall scale. Not to mention Mao’s 50MM skulls.
This tariff fiasco reminds me of Trump’s list of banned Chinese stocks in 2020. American investors were required to dump them within a relatively short period of time and in early 2021, they were delisted from the NYSE. In early 2021, Biden extended the disposition period by a few months but the stock that I was following did not recover until the fire sale period was over. I don’t know how much wealth was transferred from American investors to Chinese and other foreign investors by this forced disposition, but I suspect it was significant.
But it is a “beautiful” $4-$5 billion.
Slide 11 of the GM earnings release slide deck indicates they expect to keep pricing the same within 1% YoY.
So at least for GM, the tariffs and chaos are coming out of profits but not driving consumer price inflation.
https://investor.gm.com/static-files/644a15dc-b57c-4e91-821d-b81baa99246b
GM’s majority of profits came from China. The fact that it had to tie up with some local brand is a blessing in disguise.
How come South Korea can profitably manufacture small cars while GM can’t. I know having industrial base is so uncool, when you can just print reserve currency. There should be an investigation before imposing tariffs, but why bother when shooting tariffs is so cool.
Maybe Trump will twist GM’s arm like Bezos at Amazon…no discussion of tariffs except how much you love them…talking about them is a political and aggressive action. (And don’t even THINK of putting tariff costs on the invoice) Okay, heavy sarcasm.
GM could lessen the effect of tariffs by halting manufacturing of money losing EV’s, especially if $7500 tax credits for EV’s goes away.
Challenge there is they need the “compliance” credits from the insane CAFE standards. May be some relief coming on that.
Get rid of –
CAFE standards
Ethanol in the gasoline
Tailpipe testing
No talk of South Korea becoming our 51st state to avoid tariffs?
You should be folded from finfiz
Run along and find your safe space now