Readers asked me to comment on gold and silver. 
Gold and Silver Price
- Gold: $4442.75 per Ounce a New Record High
- Silver: $68.91 per Ounce a New Record High
Long-term readers know that I have been on the gold bandwagon for over two decades.
But I am not a cheerleader. So, I don’t post every new high.
For new readers, my key view has been and still is: The price of gold is not a function of the US dollar index.
Rather, the price of gold is a function of faith in Congress and the Fed to not destroy the dollar. By that measure, faith is collapsing, and deservedly so.
Yet, for years on end, commentators would frequently say things like “gold is up because the dollar is down”, or vice versa.
We can debunk that idea in one image.
Gold vs the US Dollar
In January of 2014, the US dollar index was 80. At the same time gold was $1,200 per ounce.
Since then, the US dollar index rose to 98, up 22.5 percent.
Also since then, the price of gold rose to $4,442, up 270 percent.
What Happened?
- The desirability to hold the US dollar vs a basket of currencies rose.
- The desirability to hold gold vs the US dollar soared.
Clearly, those are independent things over the long haul.
Gold vs Faith in Central Banks
I created similar charts years ago and periodically update them. That above chart is recent enough to not type all those anecdotes again.
Faith in the Fed and Congress is a much better explanation for moves in gold than fluctuations in the dollar.
Gold vs. Faith in Central Banks Major Timeline
August 15, 1971: Nixon ended convertibility of gold at the then fixed price of $35.00 per ounce. Nixon’s actions allowed the Fed and Congress to inflate at will.
January 21, 1980: Gold spiked to a then high of $850 per ounce in the wake of Nixon shock.
March 1980: Volcker restored faith in central banks by jacking up interest rates to 20 percent. Volcker was followed by Alan Greenspan, labeled the “Great Maestro” for keeping inflation under control.
May 7, 1999: Brown’s Bottom! On the BOE announced plans to dump gold for other assets. Gold was $282. The notice drove the price to $252. The event is named after Gordon Brown, then the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer.
August 23, 2011: Gold hit a then record high of $1923 with a European debt Crisis.
July 26, 2012: ECB president Mario Draghi made his famous “Whatever it Takes” speech. “Within our mandate, the ECB will do whatever it takes to preserve the Euro, and believe me it will be enough.” What did Draghi do? Curiously, nothing at all. However, his statement calmed the bond markets and equity markets. Gold was clobbered.
December 17, 2015: Gold bottoms as faith in central banks peaks again.
What followed was QE to absurd levels, three rounds of massive free money fiscal stimulus during Covid, and the Fed misjudging the ensuing inflation.
Now we have insane tariff policy by Trump, a Fed that still does not understand inflation, and Trump pressure on the Fed to cut rates.
What About Silver?
Silver sometimes acts like a monetary metal and sometimes like an industrial commodity.
Right now, it’s clearly acting like a monetary metal and/and or there is a huge supply shortage.
Unlike gold, silver gets used up and ends up in landfills. In contrast, nearly every ounce of gold ever mined is still in existence.
Debt and Deficits
All the Trump administration bragging about addressing the deficit is nonsense. Gold doesn’t believe that story will last and neither do I.
On May 12, 2025, I noted The “One Big Beautiful Bill” Will Continue Spending at Biden’s Level
The bill is certainly big, but it’s also damn ugly.
On June 21, 2025 I commented Record Deficits as Far as the Eye Can See and Trump Begs for More
Let’s investigate CBO deficit projections vs what actually happened.
On August 14, 2025, I commented US Debt Now Grows by $1 Trillion Every 150 Days
US national debt just topped $37 trillion and is growing fast.
Looking at recent history, by decade, the U.S. added $1 trillion to the Debt:
- Every 24 months in the 2000s, on average
- Every 11 months in the 2010s, on average
- Every 5 months in the 2020s, on average
Since August 14, debt rose from $37 trillion to $38.5 trillion.
If you think Trump’s tariffs are going to pay down that debt or do much to reduce deficit spending, you are more than a bit crazy.
A Word About Faith
Gold does not believe the Fed is under control, Congress is under control, budget deficits are under control, or Trump is under control.
And neither do I.
The new Guangzhou Industrial Metals Exchange. Do not forget this exchange, for it is the device that opens a new round of competition.
Platinum
Silver
Palladium
For now, these are the three PM’s traded on the exchange. It does not surprise me that the three traded are rallying strongly since the exchange opened.
J.P Morgan is massively short silver… The implications should be obvious that silver is the new target of the Chinese as they build out their modern electrical grid which encompasses massive solar farms and electric vehicles.
Catching the banking emperors with no clothes is just a bonus
Expect fireworks in the silver pits for the next two months… And, expect Black Swans to be flying in and out of J.P. Morgans doors.
If you are selling mining stocks or bullion into this stage of the rally, you are jumping off the lifeboat and swimming back to the Titanic….
We can’t dismiss another fact about gold and silver : sometimes, this market makes a speculative bubble, like in 1980. Sometimes it’s because of inflation fears, when inflation is running hot. Sometimes it’s because of a sovereign debt crisis (2011). And sometimes it’s just because of a global speculative bubble in everything : housing, world stock markets, bitcoin. Gold and silver are joining the party very late, in the end. What will happen next is what happens with each speculative bubble : a long bear market
About 1/4 of a gram of silver is in a cell phone and 2/5 of a gram of silver is in a desktop computer.
An average solar panel has about 2/3 of an ounce (or 20 grams) of silver.
About 500 ounces of silver in a Tomahawk cruise missile.
Silver is definitely being stockpiled to explain part of the rapid increase in the price of silver this year.
The news on gold and silver just gets stranger…
Allegedly J.P. Morgan is the trader that is caught short in the paper silver squeeze. The physical market is not letting them off the hook as electronics and industrial demand has blown through physical inventories. Even China is recognizing that its strategic stockpiles of silver are nearly depleted.
Mining companies are getting multiple bids for their silver direct from their refineries at a premium to spot.
Most regular readers of this blog have some physical. But the miners are where the story will be told as futures contracts are likely to be settled via “Force Majeure” in early 2026.
Got AEM?
Got PAAS?
Got NEM?
– Electronics and industrial demand has blown through physical inventories silver.
> Silver appears to be readily available. I don’t buy it, but try silvergoldbull as they ship it right to your door.
– Mining companies are getting multiple bids for their silver direct from their refineries at a premium to spot.
> Where there are an abundance of buyers, there are active miners.
– Most regular readers of this blog have some physical. But the miners are where the story will be told.
> “What Story” will be “The Story” If Demand stays Hot, then Miners will stay active. If Demand Cools, then the Miners could be shut right down. It all depends How Much is out there, and what the demand is. Selling could be going on too, at some point, if this was to occur. At a large volume, it could cause a spiral down effect perhaps?
My problem with the miners is endless share price dilution that dramatically increases the size of the common stock float; over time, they behave just like fiat currency, despite all the elusive stories of, “ten baggers.”
Why would the company issue more shares when they’re making so much money? At current prices, the average gold miner is sitting on a gold mine….
Comparing gold to the DXY misses the point, IMO. The DXY doesn’t measure the value of the dollar, it measure the value of the dollar to other fiat currencies. They’re all dying right now, even if the US dollar is the last to fall. Holding gold is like buying a long-term PUT on central banking in general.
Thanks Mish! I wish we could see global retail investor data/industrial demand vs global mining supply on silver. It would be interesting to see who the new precious metals enthusiasts actually are and whether they are domestic or foreign in nature.
With today hitting records for gold and silver and neither metal falling steeply ~ (due to paper selling)?
This indicates a structural shift in price discovery shifting from the COMEX to Asian markets.
First silver…
Then the gold market.
Globally buyers are standing for delivery and taking the metal out of our nations warehouses and banking system. At home, ordinary Americans are increasing their exposure to gold and silver. Better late, than never
Nobody in Weimar would have ever needed a wheelbarrow if they had credit cards. Same with the federal government “paper”.
Weimar was hyper-inflation induced by Germany having to make war reparations for World War One. The US is not in that situation and no one has the balls to hold us accountable for our current wars against more nations than I care to list.
Our hyper inflationary stage is some years into the future when our debt becomes unsustainable. Think more of a Zimbabwe slow heating of the water around the frog until the frog dies and the water comes to a boil within the next few minutes.
seemed like bin laden boys had the balls to hold us accountable. and his master plan to bring us into a land war in asia also worked. helped to bankrupt pax amerika both financially and mentally. the world used to fear us pre 9.11.01. we exposed ourselves as a paper tiger of grifters. trump is exhibit A
What debt level and inflation rate exactly would the US need to reach before you agree we are at Weimar levels and full blown currency devaluation and total loss of trust in central banking?
The only issue I have with this post is the thinking that DXY has anything to do with dollar strength, it does not. DXY is a comparison of fiat currencies all of which are losing purchasing power. Leading in the DXY is only losing slower than the rest of the fiats, or the least dirty shirt in the laundry. For a better reveal of dollar strength have a look at this chart:
2025dec23hiho1.png (990×730)
That said I agree analysis indicting that gold and DXY have correlation is wrong, but gold and dirty laundry have no correlation either.
What should have been included in this writeup is that a major contributor to the rise of the price of gold is the sanctions on billions$ of Russian assets due to the Ukraine war. This caused the central banks of Russia, China & other countries to accelerate their purchase of gold and to reduce their holdings of U.S. dollars. China especially feels vulnerable to U.S. sanctions the closer they get to a takeover of Taiwan.
Yes. The old “if you don’t hold it, you don’t own it” theorem.
Wsh Heinz was with us now….
Mish:
Can’t have it both ways. Massive layoffs and dropping consumer sentiment on one side and skyrocketing precious metals and record high stock market.
Why not?
It’s happening isn’t it?
And what about my chart don’t you understand?
Herd mentality at work…
Herd mentality has only just started. If you understood economic patterns, gold and Silver were predictable. There were clear signs about 10 years ago–Fed feeding the markets with zero interest rates to maintain the economy after it failed to let the 2007-9 crash conclude induced prolonged asset inflation/Wall Street dependency. Also, those patterns were global.
FYI 2015 was early to buy both gold and silver, but the price was relatively low. Miners could wait to 2018, and later.
As for herd mentality? Ever seen a stampede? Fear is just now setting in.
My rule is not to brag about investments. However, this is a teachable moment, as they say.
A similar pattern occurred in 2007–the pattern was the euphoria in the housing market, and idiot financing–the bubble would soon pop. I bought gold at $700 in 2007, and sold (early) in mid-2010. The peak came in 2011, near $1,800.
Currently, my average gold buy price is considerably less than what I sold gold for in 2010. I also bought silver, and miners. I have exited everything else except capital-loss stocks and one-month CDs. I have also diversified gold/silver/miners holdings to three countries. Why? This time it is not ‘just housing’, it is most of the stock market being overvalued.
It will be infinitely worse.A stampede for the record books, IMHO.
You have not made any progress until you sell…..
This ‘progress until you sell’ is a nonsense meme.
Cashing out is not the point. Timely converting to other assets with greater value prospects, of which cash is a limited one, is the point.
Exit points are also predictable once ‘other assets’ are on a downward trajectory. The general principle is the farther prices are from the long-term trend the greater the impetus to return to the trend, and overshoot. Getting in/out early is easy–buy/sell at the trend line is the base case. Hitting the peak/bottom is not my goal. The reason? The Fed can easily fudge it up.
You were right about silver being next when you analyzed the gold rally earlier this year. There’s a ratio between the two and it needed to be filled. That’s why i bought silver this year ( mostly Morgan dollars and other coins). But it was a mistake buying physical silver because of the weight of it, the Chinese counterfeits and trying to sell it Im offered only 70% of melt (I’m told the refineries aren’t accepting any more). But anyhow, I think the historical gold-silver ratio is returning to equilibrium. And if that’s the case then it’s almost certainly market speculation.
I agree with your analysis’ of labor markets and consumer sentiment. I think you may be a bit extreme but your methods of analyzing the data is exceptionally superb. The layoffs are real and even if they are partially AI induced they are still harmful to the economy as spending of the unemployed decreases drastically. People worry about having food and housing instead of solar panels and electronics that use silver or other precious metals.
They are printing the higher stock market, for now. PMs are flight to real assets.
FED Cut its Benchmark Interest Rate by 25 basis points
(bps) and announced it would buy $40 billion in short-term
Treasury Bills ‘Monthly’ = (QE) Print Til The ‘Reset’.!
As far as insurance of assets in a fiat currency system, I’ve read that wealth managers are recommending 10% of savings in precious metals, 4% in Bitcoin, and 6% in oil and gas.
The issue with metals is that its mostly paper — that is, the trading pits move around more paper contracts for metal than there is metal. Not that its ever mattered. But its open to speculation and manipulation.
From 2009 until maybe 2017, gold’s price was suppressed using contract dumping. “Someone” sold heaps of gold contracts in the futures market every Tuesday morning at 4:00 AM when the price was ordinarily lowest during any given week. This was the period where gold hovered around $1,200 to $1,300 per ounce. But years of such manipulation could not hold down the price forever. The bizarre early morning sales stopped and the price has been up ever since.
Silver makes no sense at all — until one realizes the historic silver-gold ratio was 34 in 1913, when silver was currency and gold was money. That reached a high 132 in 1933 until Roosevelt fixed the price of gold at $35 an ounce and returned to the 34 number. It bounced around after 1971, soared to around 125 in 2020 and its currently 66. But 34-to-1 is the traditional ratio.
2009 – 2012 Doubles (3Y)
2013 – 2015 back to 2009 (2Y)
2016 – 2023 Doubles again (7Y)
2024 – Present Doubles Yet Again (1Y)
Stable? Consistent? Bet On It?
2013 – 2015 back to 2009 (2Y)
Hmm… that’s when David Kranzler consistently reported on the Tuesday dumping of gold contracts — and when I bought all of my physical gold. It wasn’t much, but I’m glad I did it.
Nice Move!
A few questions for you. Do you typically buy Gold? If you do so, do you typically try to buy when the price is low, or simply invest when you think it’s the right time too? Do you also sell gold? Just wondering about your approach. Thanks in advance!
Solely as a savings measure. We paid off the house and I bought an ounce a month while the price was suppressed. Once it climbed over $1500, I stopped. Then we bought another house to rent in 2018 and again in 2020, until the price (and mortgage rates) got too high to buy anymore. But now we’ve got kids in college, so that’s the end of investments for the time being. I’ve never sold gold or silver.
But are the underlying fundamentals the same? Like it or not, Bitcoin and other inferium reduce gold/silver demand, and have changed the ‘fundamentals,’ likely as much as extra solar demand. I am very cautious about postulating ratios, particularly given massive debt, which sucks wealth from the productive economy.
With physical shortage, we are seeing behavioral change. More paper is being forced to deliver. China is in the wings, making it worse. I think of this as tariff retribution. And it has only just started.
It could get significantly worse.
After all, what is the fentanyl message? Payback for the Opium Wars that brought the world’s oldest culture to its knees?
As for the current price (silver or gold) the fundamentals now concern the utter failure of faux currencies. THere is some probability the run-up can be extreme before stability returns.
“Silver plays a vital role in producing solar power, with the average panel containing about 20 grams of silver and utilizing between 3.2 to 8 grams per square meter. “
https://learn.apmex.com/answers/how-much-silver-is-in-a-solar-panel/
Photography went away but PV has taken over.
What is going on is a collapse in “The full faith and credit” of the US dollar and fiat currencies of the G20.
correct. why would anyone have any faith in the USD at this point in world history? i cannot wait for the new trump currency. he’ll drop a billion in each account for us.
… and take 80% in tax.
as the empire crumbles i can see the trump band of grifters confiscating farms and houses and much more as we descend into our busting up empire. this is nothing new in world history. i have been in nations when the government has done this and more. it’s sort of exciting when your empire defaults 500% on the currency. separates the men from the girls.
This is why we need to be armed.
I think China will go first: massive hidden debt.
In the Last 30 Years Gold has done the following:
1. 1995 – 2022 – $300.00 to $1,800.00.
2. 2023 – Present – $1,900.00 to $4,500.00
1. So a gain of $1,500.00 over the Span of 27 Years.
2. So a gain of $2,600.00 over the Span of 2 Years.
Yeah, that sounds normal, NOT! Gold is being Run Up for eventual sales by those holding it, that require or desire “Cash” All you hear is how Gold is the BUY NOW! Everyone is doing it (they want that to occur), and you should too! Don’t miss out on this real gold rush, unlike that one in CA. THIS IS IT!! I even read an article where it was suggested that Trump is maybe looking to sell some later this year! I had suggested it might be to India.
I don’t buy it for a second, and won’t buy Gold now. I will wait roughly 8 Months from now, and buy it for around $2,500.00 if I wish to still, come that time frame. Probably not however, and will settle for another Asset I can use and/or make money from, or another investment, but one on its way up…
ok nostradamus. who is gonna win the 5th race at aqueduct racetrack this afternoon?
Everyone is entitled to their opinion. I have done extensive reviews of various information and sources over the past couple years on Gold. This is “My Personal” conclusion on the subject matter. I have provided some data, and have my own unshared sources information as well. You do you, and I will do it my way. I wish you luck in your endeavors.
thanks Stu. i was just trying to make you LOL. if you get the direction correct you are doing great. trying to put a time frame on anything is absurd, imho. one thing is certain, we are another crumbling empire. can take days or years to make the currency worthless.
I am now… Thanks!
I have been putting together the grandkids stockings and gifts, so I couldn’t follow up. I appreciate the laugh! Enjoy your Holiday!
The timeframe is based on the unusual parabolic rise in Value. Historically speaking, it doesn’t really do that, but it does fluctuate from a decent rise up, after a fall, and vise-versa.
Now is a time where it appears Cash is King and if investors wish to grab some solid gains, at an all time high, soon would be the time (I’m thinking May/June) before the Midterms.
They can afford to goose together a rising market upwards, and in volume, very quickly I might add. When / if that occurs, it’s Sell Time baby!! (For Them As Well)
IMHO.
Silver appears to be doing a very similar thing, but I am not a follower of Silver like I am gold…
Exponent thing. Now try on logarithmic scale.
Trump is expanding US debt by $1 trillion every 150 days so gold has little chance of a long term loss in value.
Plus Trump himself is consuming gold as personal gifts by the ton! Check out the poundage on the White House mantle!
MAGA is all about the gold standard and societal collapse.
For stu to take the under?
I just don’t buy that theory…
Coin shops report there are still about six sellers for every buyer of gold. This suggests that we’re not close to the exuberant blow-off top phase yet, and your negative sentiments underline that.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/tWsFLnzbpZU
Coin shops will typically be low volume sellers, but perhaps many if enough cash is needed. These sellers don’t move the needle to the naked eye just yet, but you can bet the Investors / Sellers are paying attention.
Every fiat currency dies by hypèrinflation, and the dollar won’t be an exception.
Gold continued its surge and now sits at a record $4,520 with silver right at $70.00.
Today is a futures options expiry and settlement often brings shorting shenanigans to discourage standing for delivery.
“Stand For Delivery” are the most feared words at the COMEX where paper gold contracts exceed deliverable ounces.
Inventories remain adequate with about 17 million ounces in the “Eligible for delivery” status. Paper gold contracts represent over 300 million ounces but even at this ratio of cover, stocks remain adequate.
Silver is a different story with a severe shortage causing stock depletion as Singapore and Hong Kong are the gateway for growing Asian trade.
Price moves in large markets are not random, there are price patterns that play out again and again. That’s what the various forms of technical analysis are based on. Gold prices soared after it completed a 45 year cup and handle pattern. Silver just completed a similar pattern and its price is now soaring. There are various X accounts pointing out targets based on these patterns, Northstar/Badcharts nailed current moves 5 years ago, just standard technical analysis. A Swedish commodities trader named Graddhy posts similar work, his silver target is $370 eventually…
=TOO MUCH WORDS
just Google debt to penny, click json and 1 year, and get csv file
pick up last and firsat lines
right now USA debt runs $ 2.1 trln per year
The dollar index is heavily weighted with the euro, so I don’t think it’s an accurate reflection of the value of a dollar. Regardless, I like gold as a hedge against monetary irresponsibility and there’s no shortage of that.
It is better to compare $ with The Swiss Franc.
I’d accumulated junk silver over the past decade and sold about 2000oz ASW a month ago to help my son with a property purchase. Now it’s up another 29%. Could say Doh! at selling then but I still more than doubled my money and I still have 1000oz. Plus I still have my gold that’s up eightfold from when I purchased it.
Will silver halve in price? Or double? At least whatever it does an ounce will remain an ounce while stocks, Bitcon and fiat can go poof
Bert Dohmen was being interviewed on Kitco News and gave the anecdote of his 1980 cycle-study prediction (pre-crash) to his clients that gold was about to enter a 20 year bear market, followed by a 31 year bull market.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/wVSj1zQKNWo
A shout-out to the reader on this blog (can’t remember his name) who said a few years ago that I was an idiot for having about 80% of my share portfolio in gold-mining stocks…. 👍😁
the biggest downside to owning metals is the chance boating accident and losing them all. which is quite common. also i forgot where i buried many of my stashes. i guess i just write them off as losses on my taxes.
“Honestly Judge, I was just taking my gold out for a nice boat ride… The iceberg came out of nowhere…” 😁
ha ha ha. iceberg. the percentage of amerikans who own gold is so tiny. the odds they confiscate stocks and bonds and houses is so much greater. this ain’t 1932 when most amerikans owned gold or silver. even if only a few ounces.
When your gold dental work was part of your assets 🙂
I stored my gold in Venezuela. I was transporting it back to the states on a speedboat due to concerns of government instability from the Trump administration’s threat to overthrow the Government. It never made it. It’s now somewhere on the bottom of the Caribbean. I could not insure it due to regional escalations and concerns that drug traffickers were moving drugs to the US. Bad luck I suppose.
ha ha ha. my spouse is an archaelogist. she has many treasure hunter pals. do you have some coordinates so we can do a scuba diving hunt for your poor lost gold at bottom of sea.
physical gold price has done 4x the dow jones for the 21st century so far.
There are a number of such eye-openers on the pricedingold website. Pricing in dollars created in ever greater quantity does not allow a real measure of value.
By the way, 5 pre-1965 quarters is now worth $62 because of silver content. Those 5 quarters constituted minimum wage in 1965.
oh, yes. thanks. i know. those bags and bags we had cost us only one paper dollar for that ounce.
i still have bags of silver from when i was a little boy sifting through the piles of coins my mom would bring back after LBJ defaulted on the silver coins. there were plenty of silver coins in circulation. circa 1966 to 72 or so. mom had bags and bags of “junk coins”. cost basis zero. now they are worth 70 a silver dollar. i’d never think of paying tax on them.
Most readers know that I am a close follower of the gold and PM sector. I enjoy investing in the PM mining companies as a financial hobby. Outsized entry about three years ago.
Let’s be clear ~ I’m talking my book…
The gold market has changed as the flows of physical metals have diversified dramatically over the past few years. As a result huge volumes of physical metals have been shifted to Asia with Singapore becoming a major trading center.
During Covid, most nations inflated their currencies dramatically to provide liquidity. This shifted the global currency discipline dramatically and as bad as the US was in debasing the dollar, virtually all other nations or fiscal unions debased their currencies MOAR! Japan was an extreme case and as such provides a strong example that the dollar is not going to fail. (The dollar can be debased to extreme levels (and probably will be) before any collapse is likely).
Now the world is starting to ease and Japan is attempting to tighten policy which may trigger the unwinding of the carry trade. This is a Black Swan event by definition.
I do not see any reason for the gold rally to slow and as I write, gold has punched through the $4,500 level without any resistance. Parabolic is the shape of the curve and this is a blow off top by any definition. Where the top of the parabola is, is undefined.
Keep in mind that gold mining companies are tremendously undervalued because they have their underground assets booked at $1,250 to $1,700 per ounce and their production costs are relatively fixed. Every dollar that gold goes up translates to a dollar of profit and margin growth makes the Nvidia’s of the world turn their heads in shame. We are talking margin growth of over 200% year over year.
Companies that were saddled with debt have paid it off and the next phase is acquisitions and share buybacks. Dividend increases are also in the future.
Got AEM?
Got PAAS?
NEM or a host of others?
thanks for the great recommendations. as the empire defaults more and more on her currency as she has done a few times already in my life. 1965 and 1971. i think old TACO boy will default on foreign held treasuries and perhaps even issue new trump dollars by jan 2029. stuff happens in life. i lived in charleston SC for a decade. lots of families there saved their plantations by selling confederate dollars and lincoln sawbucks and buying gold during the recent unpleasantness.
Grok on Newmont.
Current Gold Spot Price (as of December 23, 2025): Approximately $4,484 per ounce, based on multiple sources reporting prices in the $4,483–$4,504 range amid record highs.
Newmont’s All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC): Newmont’s 2025 guidance for gold AISC is $1,620–$1,630 per ounce for its Tier 1 portfolio (the core ongoing operations). Recent quarterly reports show AISC around $1,566–$1,593 per ounce, but the full-year company guidance remains at this level, accounting for sustaining capital, royalties, and other factors in a high gold price environment.
Profit per Ounce: Using the current spot price of ~$4,484 and guided AISC of ~$1,630, Newmont’s approximate gross profit margin per ounce (before corporate overheads, taxes, etc.) is $4,484 – $1,630 = $2,854 per ounce. This is a rough estimate of operating margin on production, as AISC represents the full cost to sustain production.
Annual Production: Newmont’s 2025 attributable gold production guidance is approximately 5.9 million ounces (including minor non-core contributions early in the year; core Tier 1 portfolio ~5.6 million ounces). The company is on track to meet this based on quarterly updates.
Estimated Total Gross Profit on Production: ~5.9 million ounces × $2,854 per ounce ≈ $16.8 billion. This is an approximate operating-level profit before taxes, interest, corporate costs, and other items—actual net profit would be lower.
Comparing the price of gold to the DXY is a useless exercise. All the currencies in the DXY are phony fiat irredeemable currencies The US dollar vs. DXY just shows which shirt in the hamper is dirtier. The value of gold relates to all the fiat currencies together, as an ever-depreciating lump sum entity.
DXY is bullshit. i agree.
I started buying gold just after 9/11. I found it very odd at the time that gold had not risen in response. It was about $275 then.
Gold reached almost $1000 in early 2008 after years of easy money. Then it supposedly “crashed” to $700 an ounce in late 2008 after the financial crisis.
That’s when I decided to buy more, only I found out that $700 price was just a myth and you couldn’t actually buy physical gold anywhere at that price.
good job.
I bought gold at $700 in Chicago in 2007. The coin shops look at the same graphs as everyone else when they set a selling price. Unfortunately my Xmas gifts stopped in 2009 and my gold buying was cut short. Blah.
Profits for me. I’m not a big metals fan but who am I to turn down massive profits. Getting ready to trade SLV at the open tomorrow and laugh all the way to the bank. It’s time to board the you-know-what cuz it’s leaving the station.
Gold is how the rich store their wealth. Silver is how gentlemen pay their bills.
Global Government spending is Out of Control in many Nations. Most of Europe is going broke. Gold is a common medicine to treat increasing currency debasements.
TINA 2 FOMO
– Lisa_Hooker
Note that unobtainum is still available at last month’s prices.
What an amazing and historical article, Mish! Thank you! It’s just chuck full of “I remember that event!! from me! This should be put in ever reader’s cloud storage for any “I don’t believe that happened,” financial discussion we get into!
You’re ignoring platinum and palladium which have kicked in in the past few months. Platinum is over $2000 and Palladium is closing in on that level.
This is because of the new industrial metals futures market being opened in Guangzhou. This futures delivery platform trades and physically delivers Platinum, powdered Platinum and Palladium. The also have recently taken delivery of 20 million ounces of silver to provide for physical delivery of it as an industrial metal.
The Shanghai and Hong Kong Futures and Options market are also growing at an astounding rate as Asians are becoming wealthy enough to buy PM’s.
I think you forgot one major contributing factor. The US and Europe confiscation of Russian assets in 2022. Gold equates to freedom. Holding dollar assets equates to bondage. Foreign central banks have gotten the clue.
I have talked about that on several occasions. Thanks and good point.
RIP Richard Daughty – The Mogambo Guru
I didn’t know that he died – I’m sorry to hear that. I used to enjoy his writings on the Daily Reckoning website. What a pity that he didn’t get to see the current unfolding fulfilment of his gold prediction.
In honor of the Great M.G., let me quote his famous catch cry one last time… “Whee – this investing stuff is easy!”
The US and Europe confiscation of Russian assets in 2022.
Bingo…
“The US and Europe confiscation of Russian assets in 2022.”
Bingo…
What many fail to mention is that the Russian assets held in Belgium are not gold bars or euro banknotes, but EU debt. Its freezing is effectively a default by the EU.
It’s All about war…
Some weeks ago, “The Economist” magazine did an article about possibly reasons why gold and silver keep rising. The article concluded that it did not represent a loss of faith in fiscal policy and the dollar because the 10-year treasury bond rate has not been concurrently soaring along with gold and silver which is what one would expect if investors were losing faith and confidence in the US government. Instead, they suggested it was driven by speculation, much as bitcoin was earlier this year.
I believe my historical timeline speaks for itself.
Treasuries would be higher if they were actually traded in a free market
Fair comment. There was another article in “The Economist” that the US Treasury has been selling short-term notes and using the proceeds to buy back long-term US bonds, probably to try to keep a lid on long-term bond rates in the face of massive deficits. And the Fed has recently announced that it’s starting to buy short-term notes for “reserve management” purposes. QE by any other name is still QE.
The Fed is the largest purchaser of US debt.
Said the court shysters.
Some of the rally is due to stockpiling given silver is used quite a bit in solar panels and electronics, and a lot in a Tomahawk cruise missile.
But also some of it is due to a speculative bubble forming this year. That is why I don’t expect a large crash but some correction in silver and gold prices. Like every other asset class, it should return to the mean.
The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for the price of silver from the end of 2021 to December 2025 is approximately 31.2%.
The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for US inflation from 2021 to present day (December 2025) is approximately 4.57%. The cumulative price increase over this four-year period was 19.56%.
The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for silver from December 1970 to December 2025 is approximately 7.29%.
The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for U.S. inflation from 1970 to late 2025 is around 4%.
The attached is an AI generated video with regards to silver. I don’t know who or what this guy actually is, but the stuff stated within has been spot on. This AI fellow appears in a number of videos on a number of youtube channels. How all of this is compiled is beyond my comprehension, but it is an excellent overview of the silver market and how things are playing out at this time in history. Make what you want of it, but this guy nailed that the algos needed to buy starting when the markets opened last night.
Silver Hits $67 The Friday Kill Switch Failed — Banking Panic Exposed
Well, the traditional COMEX method of killing the silver prices by increasing the margin did go up 10% – except this time there were still buyers and it failed.
Things are de-coupling
Excellent Video. Silver has pierced $70 and fallen back to $69 50 so far. No sighting of $73 yet to validate the video. Night is still young.
That’s the Asia Guy. Don’t know his real name but he is very good. I don’t understand how these AI generated videos are created. I view a lot recently from the Asia Guy, Yanis Varoufakis and John Mearsheimer, both of whom I have admired and followed for years. Is this their real content? I assume so. Analysis and delivery seem too good for AI generated content. Does anyone know?
Gold is definitely sensitive to the US dollar, but agree has decoupled largely due to a number of factors, including loss of faith in governments worldwide, explosive growth of global debt and out of control government spending, government Central Bank gold accumulation (see China and others), financial institutions turning net long both in the paper markets as well as physical acquisition, and other motivations.
Silver is in net deficit of roughly 200M ounces for each of the last five years or so with no likely change in the foreseeable future due to inelastic supply and continued industrial demand. Add growing investment interest from governments, financial institutions and retail investors. Note that industrial demand will continue for a host of applications such as electronics, solar, etc. This is due to silver being the element with both the best thermal and electrical conductance in the periodic table. You can’t fight science so it will not be substituted in industry.
I am net very long paper and physical. Have stacked for nearly twenty years. Been waiting for this day for a long time. The emperor has no clothes. If you think it is expensive now, I think you are in for a big surprise. 2026 will surprise to the upside.
Like your comment, but gold is a better conductor of electricity than silver. Silver is far more affordable and at these prices is practical. Silver can run to well over $200/oz and continue to be affordable for its conductive and photovoltaics applications before substitutes will be sought.
Regardless ~ silver is a by product of the major gold mining companies and if you look at their financials you will see that most major are also major silver producers.
Gotta correct you on this one Frosty. Silver is the best conductor, closely followed by copper, and then gold. But silver will tarnish and gold will not. I am not sure how that affects conductivity in the long run.
Table of Electrical Resistivity and Conductivity
Massive quantities of US Treasury silver were used by the Manhatten project to make electromagnetic isotope separators for uranium. It’s the best conducting metal so made the best electromagnets.
I’m an EE, not a Chemist but I would presume the tarnishing degrades the electrical properties due to the introduction of impurities which degrade the silver performance. Regardless, silver works best for electrical performance relative to anything else.
The point is that silver is indispensable in its applications, and industry will continue to use it in increasing quantities irrespective of price. This is because that it isn’t needed in large quantities (grams of silver) in electronics such as smart phones, computers, other electronics, etc) that won’t drive the overall price of the end product. For example, if you use a gram in a smart phone, at a hypothetical $1000 an ounce that is approximately $35 of silver used in the phone. Not nothing, but surely not enough to force a substitution of some other conducting element, on a $1000 smart phone. So, the industrial demand is not going away.
Thanks! Interesting to me for sure!
Gold is NOT sensitive to $ but for the reported price suppression by the US Federal Reserve ,BIS etc. The rehypothecation fraud was also a factor for Gold not rising as it should have.