Gold Surges $100 to New Record High Above $4,300 as Bond Yields Dive

Gold reiterates its message: Spending is out of control with no faith in the Fed.

The price of Gold vs Faith in Central Banks

Gold vs. Faith in Central Banks Major Timeline

August 15, 1971: Nixon ended convertibility of gold at the then fixed price of $35.00 per ounce. Nixon’s actions allowed the Fed and Congress to inflate at will.

January 21, 1980: Gold spiked to a then high of $850 per ounce in the wake of Nixon shock.

March 1980: Volcker restored faith in central banks by jacking up interest rates to 20 percent. Volcker was followed by Alan Greenspan, labeled the “Great Maestro” for keeping inflation under control.

May 7, 1999: Brown’s Bottom! On the BOE announced plans to dump gold for other assets. Gold was $282. The notice drove the price to $252. The event is named after Gordon Brown, then the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer.

August 23, 2011: Gold hit a then record high of $1923 with a European debt Crisis.

July 26, 2012: ECB president Mario Draghi made his famous “Whatever it Takes” speech. “Within our mandate, the ECB will do whatever it takes to preserve the Euro, and believe me it will be enough.” What did Draghi do? Curiously, nothing at all. However, his statement calmed the bond markets and equity markets. Gold was clobbered.

December 17, 2015: Gold bottoms as faith in central banks peaks again.

What followed was QE to absurd levels, three rounds of massive free money fiscal stimulus during Covid, and the Fed misjudging the ensuing inflation.

Now we have insane tariff policy by Trump, a Fed that still does not understand inflation, and Trump pressure on the Fed to cut rates.

If that was not enough, US debt now grows by $1 trillion every 150 days.

Today’s Action

  • Today, gold spiked another $100+ dollars to a new record high over $4,300.
  • Silver hit a new record high of $53.49.
  • Crude continues to sink. It’s down to $57.62 from a high of $120 in April of 2022.
  • Copper is near a record high, just under $5.00.
  • The 10-year treasury yield is under 4.0 percent, down 8 basis points to 3.97.
  • The 3-month T-bill yield is 3.95 percent nearly the same as the 10-year yield.

Bond Yield Message

Yields are down today but are very elevated from what Trump wants.

Bonds can’t seem to make up their mind whether it’s stagflation, an ordinary recession, or simply persistent inflation.

A case can be made for each of those. After all, who knows what Trump will do?

Regardless, gold’s message is consistent.

A Word About Faith

Gold does not believe the Fed is under control, Congress is under control, budget deficits are under control, or Trump is under control.

And neither do I.

Related Posts

June 21, 2025: Record Deficits as Far as the Eye Can See and Trump Begs for More

Let’s investigate CBO deficit projections vs what actually happened.

June 23, 2025: How Long Can the US Dollar Remain the Global Reserve Currency?

An article on the fundamental flaws with the euro triggered this post.

August 14, 2025: US Debt Now Grows by $1 Trillion Every 150 Days

US national debt just topped $37 trillion and is growing fast.

And in the theater of the absurd, on October 13, 2025, I noted Fed Debates Whether a $6 Trillion Balance Sheet Is Ample

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anoop
anoop
22 days ago

Would you recommend buying at $4000/oz?

Frosty
Frosty
1 month ago

Debasement…

This is the common reason for the accumulation of gold by nation after nation as well as common people across the world.

A rather ominous sign of what the future may hold.

And/or a real reflection of the debasement that has already occurred. Either way, gold is rising in numerical terms and retaining its buying power…

Lot’s of you hold gold and I’m only holding the mining stocks.

Run what ya brung!

Stu
Stu
1 month ago
Reply to  Frosty

– Experts have suggested a hypothetical scenario where the US might sell gold reserves to manage the shutdown or reduce debt.
> Hmm… Sounds very familiar to Me anyway…

– Ross Maxwell said, “If the US under Donald Trump started selling its gold reserves while global prices are at record highs, the move would have a significant impact on the markets. The immediate and most obvious effect would be downward pressure on gold prices.”
> Hmm… Equally sounds very familiar…

– He added, “Domestically, the proceeds could help reduce debt or fund spending.
> Reduce Debt? You don’t say…

Frosty
Frosty
1 month ago
Reply to  Stu

That’s funny! First they would have to be able to deliver it. Fort Knox has not been audited yet (another broken Trump promise). I suppose that the announcement would have an effect that the insiders would trade. I do not trust that our gold was not largely depleted during the Nixon years. Look how long it took Germany to get their gold back.

Trump would probably try to deliver tungsten bars that were thinly covered in gold. Just like his spray painted gold tennis shoe fraud…

😉

Stu
Stu
1 month ago

Hmm… So Gold took a very little dip (4,249.94
-40.20 or -0.94%). Of 1%. After all the hype what would cause this phenomenon? Well the #1 reason of course is “Profit Taking” as it nearly always is with Gold. As a commodity, you invest in it for its Price. When low you may invest and when high you may sell.

The “Real Question” then becomes Why? The price has been climbing. Typically a time to invest. Well the reason is “For Cash” needed to cover Debt, Margin Call’s, School Loan’s, Car Loans, Rent, Etc. Things that you need cash for, and not an investment. The other reason is “Profit Taking” This occurs when the price run up is Fed by all. The Players and Wealthy always invest, because they never have to sell if they don’t care to, and some don’t, but many do! They do together, represent a high volume of money, so when they collide perhaps you could say, it Moves The Needle. People that have to sell, get caught up and buy, but must sell and it’s down by then, as they got in too late (Now perhaps, Could be one of those times?), and lose a lot they didn’t have, but hype does that to some.

You will start to hear all sorts of other reasons, that are meant for those that are caught up in the hype. You need them to invest, as those are your “Profit Centers” and must be played to install confidence, so they will bite. Now is not the time to buy, unless you Can Hold Onto It imo.

Golds price, because of the nature of it as a holding commodity, typically has its decline start slowly, as a drip, as it extends to a trickle, and then eventually it pours… That’s because the forced sellers are low volume sellers, and doesn’t move the needle enough, but does open the eyes of investors, they want to wait and pull the trigger as close to the peak as they see possible, and/or when there counterparts start to move. That’s the eventual bottom, and then they will start to invest all over again. That’s Gold!!!

Frosty
Frosty
1 month ago

Gold ends the weeks trading sessions at $4,267.80.

And so it goes…

<><><><><><><>

Avery2
Avery2
1 month ago

Well, it only took 112 years, like a Chicago Cubs World Series win cycle or Halleys Comet. Unlike 100 years ago in Weimar, no fiat wheelbarrows necessary this time.

Last edited 1 month ago by Avery2
JohnF
JohnF
1 month ago

“Spending is out of control with ‘No Faith’ in the Fed”

No Audit Of Ft Knox Gold

No Audit Of Pentagon MIC – Trillions Missing.

No Audit Of FED – Trillions In Bailouts For Too Big To
Fail/Jail Corporations & Banksters.

Total Debt Over $37 trillion + Adding 4-5 Trillion a
Year – With 1.2 trillion Annual Interest Payment.

Lock Her Up (2016) – NO ONE At The Top Gone To
Jail/Prison Yet!

Frosty
Frosty
1 month ago
Reply to  JohnF

You have by now recognized that Trump, Prince Andrew and the Clintons are part of the same “Above the Law” group. All Identified and assembled in mutual guilt and corruption together by Epstein for the use of ?

LMAO!

JohnF
JohnF
1 month ago
Reply to  Frosty

Epstein Pentagon MIC Warmonger$$

RonJ
RonJ
1 month ago

The Fourth Turning is in control.

Some general was quoted the other day, as saying we have gone from a post war era, into a pre war era.

Was also reading that central banks hold more gold than treasuries. Reaching toward the day of reset. That which can’t continue, won’t.

Lefteris
Lefteris
1 month ago

And I’m afraid that gold may be entering a temporary bubble territory, not in its price, but in how quickly and prematurely this price is achieved. Sure there’s fundamentals for even $6K/ounce, but from 2.5K to 5K in one year is too steep to be supported by “government debt service concerns” (let alone the 30-year calamity predictions of British notes). It feels like a temporary glitch at his phase may trigger a temporary fire sale.

alx west
alx west
1 month ago
Reply to  Lefteris

yeah. some % 5*10 pct corr is ok!!

nothing FUNDAMENTAL CHANGED!!!… USA STILL IS GOING TO RUN $ 2 TRN DEFICIT! 4ever

+= Venezuela WAR ON HORIZON

Avery2
Avery2
1 month ago
Reply to  Lefteris

Unafordium v Unobtainium on the Periodic Table.

Lefteris
Lefteris
1 month ago

An interview with NATO chief mentions the relationship between tariffs to India and oil sales to them by Russia.
In the beginning I thought that Geopolitical Games was only a small part of the tariffs. Now I think it’s most of it.

alx west
alx west
1 month ago
Reply to  Lefteris

only uneducated mor1on like Rutte from country that half under water
would think Russia IS SOME KIND Of banana (= oil, gas) republic, so
if Russia stops exporting sh11it, war is going to end!! not a chance

he is a mor11on!! all of them.

alx

ps

russia is 4th biggest economy in world, after china usa, india. ppp wise
and that according cia/imf

spencer
spencer
1 month ago

If the FED lowers its policy rates again, gold will continue to rise. Gold has risen since the 10-yr has fallen from 4.79% to 4.03% while the CPI has risen conterminous from 2.3 to 2.9 percent.  I.e., a declining real-rate of interest fuels gold’s price.

alx west
alx west
1 month ago
Reply to  spencer

=10-yr has fallen from 4.79% to 4.03

actually rates are down cause USA economy is fuc11ked, trump or no trump
bloom is off.

lets say rates did not go down, and so 10year would be 5%

, so just servicing debt (= 40 trln$) would cost $2 trln, and USA collects around $4.5 trln, plus $ 2 trln new debt each and every year.

either way , EVEN 5% is not possible.

Winston
Winston
1 month ago

I wish I’d bought AMD just ten years ago for $1.89. It’s $234.56 today In the past I’d normally followed CPU tech closely, but the field had gotten so boring with only Intel mostly in charge of innovation that I’d stopped paying attention.

drodyssey
drodyssey
1 month ago

“Gold does not believe the Fed is under control, Congress is under control, budget deficits are under control, or Trump is under control.”

Set to music…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0yv685L2JY&list=RDk0yv685L2JY&start_radio=1

drodyssey
drodyssey
1 month ago

How are investors playing the debasement trade?They are spending more of their fiat currency reserves on assets that cannot be printed, such as precious metals and bitcoin.
It’s “the familiar pattern of dollar debasement against alternative reserve assets amid Washington dysfunction”, according to JP Morgan analysts this week.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/09/the-debasement-trade-is-this-whats-driving-gold-bitcoin-and-shares-to-record-highs

Troy
Troy
1 month ago

Are we Fxcked?

drodyssey
drodyssey
1 month ago

A 60/20/20 portfolio strategy that includes 20% gold is a more resilient inflation hedge at a time when U.S. equities are offering historically low upside over Treasuries and investors are demanding higher yields for long-term bonds, Morgan Stanley Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson said on Tuesday.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/wealth/morgan-stanley-cio-favors-602020-portfolio-strategy-with-gold-inflation-hedge-2025-09-16/

K.V.Sadasivan
K.V.Sadasivan
1 month ago
Reply to  drodyssey

The new rule is 50 or more % in PMs. I have a 70 % Gold and 20% Silver strategy FROM 2004.It has been performing very well.Trump’s antics and unpredictability coupled with very high Global and US Debts make PMs a necessity.My equities are also OK.

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
1 month ago
Reply to  K.V.Sadasivan

Gold accumulation started in 2002 when gold was $256/oz, or when gold was: $8,000/kilo. Lending gold to speculators send these lenders to the morgues.

Last edited 1 month ago by Michael Engel
K.V.Sadasivan
K.V.Sadasivan
1 month ago
Reply to  Michael Engel
Avery2
Avery2
1 month ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

Potter Palmer did pretty well after Mrs O’Leary’s Cow kicked over the lantern.

alx west
alx west
1 month ago

= gold paper,almost 4400 morning

mish will be busy all time.

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
1 month ago

Wolf: The Most Splendid Housing Bubble: Sam Altman ChatGPT can write the same article.

alx west
alx west
1 month ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

wolf is smart, but he has some quirks
=====

doesn’t like ilon

likes EV and sh11it, still repeating bs about ev, based on California STATS

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
1 month ago
Reply to  alx west

Wolf is an idiot: Fed printing increase US gov and debt and inflation: Currency in Circulation is only $2,400B, not $37T. AI can mine Zilliow, Fed data, Manheim and produce the same articles, with charts, without insulting their readers. Those who have no self respect can stay on Wolf.

Last edited 1 month ago by Michael Engel
Avery2
Avery2
1 month ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

Wolf is soft pedaling the timing, duration and severity of the real estate collapse.

Frosty
Frosty
1 month ago

Golds 52 week range:

Low ~ $2,541.50
High ~ $4,392.50

Gold mining companies costs are relatively fixed and margins have exploded upwards as a result. Balance sheets have seen massive reductions or eliminations of debt. Higher dividend payments and share buybacks can occur as outsized profits are distributed to owners.

Regardless of the downside risk implied by a parabolic increase in the price of gold, there is room to run for the metal and miners.

One trillion in new debt every 150 daze is a great deal of fuel for this fire…

Volatility is golds best friend…

>>>

alx west
alx west
1 month ago
Reply to  Frosty

= parabolic increase in the price of gold, th

it is just simple re-pricing.

SO CALLED SMART ONES from wall street discovered google and USA debt chart /s

i doubt we will ever see gold down under 50avg

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
1 month ago

XACO Ex date, option #1: pro Chinese domination takes over. Trump: we must have an enemy. Without one we are all dead. Option #2: pro Trump takes over. Peace on earth. They will numb the US.

Last edited 1 month ago by Michael Engel
alx west
alx west
1 month ago

gold is up because of DEBT.

stock bubble is afterthought.

======

actually in some cases stocks is good hegde – Walmart will be here in another 20 years.

problem is a some point gov will confiscate all profits in stocks.
but you can always say : you lost your gold in boat accident.

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
1 month ago
Reply to  alx west

Gold is between 4,300 and 4,400 bc it was in accumulation for 4Y.

alx west
alx west
1 month ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

accumulation was 1half of 2025. before break up 3500

see chart

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
1 month ago
Reply to  alx west

Re-accumulation in 2025.

alx west
alx west
1 month ago

jesus!!

ANTI GOLD folks (aka Linux PROCESSES run by from cia/mi6 computers) are in full force here.

mish touched nurve!

ad hominem
ad hominem
1 month ago
Reply to  alx west

Your thoughts on bitcoin?

alx west
alx west
1 month ago
Reply to  ad hominem

none!! it is digital fraud. at best it is just trading/speculative tool.

if you have money to lose , gamble.
=====

there can be made dozens of diff bitcoins, putincoins, sh11itcoins, trumpcoins etc and each promises it is unique and number of is restricted!

====
all those bitcoins can be kept on single usb drive.
so you know where one can stick that usb drive w/ all bitcoins. :))

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
1 month ago

The US and Pakistan signed a $500M rare earth agreement. First batch was shipped
this week: Antimony, Copper, Neodymium, Praseodymium and other. XACO was infuriated bc China transferred rare earth process knowledge to Pakistan, an ally against India. In Sharm El Sheikh Pakistan dictator recommended Trump to Nobel Prize. Japan, Taiwan and the Europeans gang together to retaliate against XACO. A global anti XACO bubble is forming. XACO influencers in Taiwan and Japan were sacked to the back of the line. Trump moves the world. Instead of domination ==> ablation. Only a few US media are still in love him.

Last edited 1 month ago by Michael Engel
JCH1952
JCH1952
1 month ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

Pakistan’s REE stash could, in the global scheme, be stuffed in a thimble you could hook a gold chain to and wear as a necklace.

George
George
1 month ago

Gold will go up as long as the stock bubble holds then another 20 year wait….

alx west
alx west
1 month ago
Reply to  George

gold is up because of DEBT. not stock bubble

stock bubble is afterthought.
======

actually in some cases stocks is good hegde – Walmart will be here in another 20 years.

problem is a some point gov will confiscate all profits in stocks.
but you can always say : you lost your gold in boat accident.

George
George
1 month ago
Reply to  alx west

This will end up in tears for a lot folks,…place your bets.

alx west
alx west
1 month ago
Reply to  George

well as long as USA debt increases $ 2 trln per year
, and Europe is getting de-industrialized and itching for another W/ RUSSIA , GOLD IS SAFE!!

alx

ps
rule number 1 , never attack Russia in winter

George
George
1 month ago
Reply to  George

My point if you are 40 you can wait for another 20 years but if you’re 70 cash out…..

alx west
alx west
1 month ago
Reply to  George

why??

USA budget deficit will never be less than 1.5 trln$

in 20 short years , overall gov debt will be $100 trln

George
George
1 month ago
Reply to  alx west

Just put on your thinking hat why kitco or Peter Shiff want to sell you gold….why will anyone sell you gold?

alx west
alx west
1 month ago
Reply to  George

sorry pal, you sound like kind of mo11ron!!

THEY DONT SELL OWN Gold!!! they are in middle !!

THEy ARE selling gold produced by firms. !!

they work on commission, making spread. same as Amazon, or wall-mart.

do you think Walmart produce half of $ trln of shit by itself? fat no!!

=======

those big producers cant JUST STOP DIGGING EARTH , and stop processing all sh11it, they have capital invested and tied up.

they must sell gold. of course they are happy gold is up..

if your cost of production is more or less fixed . each percent up goes straight to earnings!

=========
NEVER RUN A LEMON STAND, ARE YOU?

alx

ps
at average, you get 16g from 1 ton of gold ore!

Last edited 1 month ago by alx west
George
George
1 month ago
Reply to  alx west

I’m not trying to convince you of anything the question remains why would anyone sell you gold think….

alx west
alx west
1 month ago
Reply to  George

did you miss my post?

again, google = WHAT PRODUCTION WORD = MEANS.

why would someone sell you house + lot of land ?
land is up every year, nobody can make more land ..

jesus!

George
George
1 month ago
Reply to  alx west

Are you using tulips to pay for land or gold or or or…..

Avery2
Avery2
1 month ago
Reply to  George

Why wouldn’t a car salesman buy up all the cars on his lot for himself? You mean something like that?

Uncle Buffy wearing Brooks running shoes while guzzling Cokes and choking on See’s Candies while running back and forth on top of his choo-choo trains with tank cars full of methy ethyl death?

Last edited 1 month ago by Avery2
El Trumpedo
El Trumpedo
1 month ago
Reply to  alx west

So what’s next… squillions?

alx west
alx west
1 month ago
Reply to  El Trumpedo

well, as soon as debt servicing hit 50% of revenues
it is over.

it is either Weimar, or military dictatorship.

i think it will be 2d

Casual Observer
Casual Observer
1 month ago

There is too much money chasing after too many perceived “assets”. We all know how this ends. Not a question of if but when.

Jshade1962
Jshade1962
1 month ago

Gold is in a speculative bubble, just like the ai companies.

alx west
alx west
1 month ago
Reply to  Jshade1962

mo11ron.11

seems like you are new here. so i will go easy on your azzz.

google usa debt, and usa deficit

steve
steve
1 month ago

Silver is up about 20% too. It’s poor man’s gold.

K.V.Sadasivan
K.V.Sadasivan
1 month ago
Reply to  steve

The rule in PMs “was” :-
Accumulate Gold but Trade in Silver.The present rise shows the fragility of Global Finance and high Global Debt US leading in both categories. Trump’s antics has made US lose what little trust it had,Nixon of 1971,Plaza Accord of the 1980s etc, notwithstanding.

CaptainCaveman
CaptainCaveman
1 month ago

Reminds me of the ridiculous crude oil spike of 2007 to $140/bbl. It was completely unfounded and collapsed fairly quickly…but only after ruining many businesses and traders. I feel like they’re doing the same thing again, but with Gold and Silver.

alx west
alx west
1 month ago
Reply to  CaptainCaveman

mo11ron!

google usa debt, and usa deficit

ps
agree on oil in 2007

K.V.Sadasivan
K.V.Sadasivan
1 month ago
Reply to  CaptainCaveman

A Conspiracy theory:-
Indo-US Nuclear Deal was being negotiated.There was a strong opposition in India about the conditions imposed on her..The deal had already been signed but the .Indian Parliament had to approve it.To make the case for the said Deal strong, Crude price was manipulated

Brent crude oil price annually 1976-2025| Statista

Avery2
Avery2
1 month ago

Hi Mish. Remember the good old days on your site, jskit and comments around 2007 – 2009. Commenter named Guadia Ray called the stock market collapse months in advance – good timing to trade on – and was a huge gold and silver bug. THIS right now is what he was predicting then, and more to come, including paper contract defaults.

Would be interesting to find a way back machine to read. I think only Bam Man is left from that era on the comments here, at least using the same name.

Last edited 1 month ago by Avery2
Bam_Man
Bam_Man
1 month ago
Reply to  Avery2

Still here and still a gold bug. 🙂

Stu
Stu
1 month ago

– January 21, 1980: Gold spiked to a then high of $850 per ounce in the wake of Nixon shock.
> Hmm… The highest gold price recorded in 1980 was $683.50 per ounce in October (ALL Macrotrends)

– August 23, 2011: Gold hit a then record high of $1923 with a European debt Crisis.
> Hmm… The highest price for gold in 2011 was $1,895.10 per ounce, reached on September 6, 2011. With Fear of a Double Dip Recession ?

– July 26, 2012: Gold was clobbered.
> Hmm… In 2012 Gold nearly Hit an all-time High of $1,728.25 In November of 2012?

– December 17, 2015: Gold bottoms as faith in central banks peaks again.
> Hmm… It was $1,190 in May 2015? And $1,357 in July 2016?

– Regardless, gold’s message is consistent.
> Regardless, This Shows Golds message is Inconsistent @ best… JS!

alx west
alx west
1 month ago
Reply to  Stu

now do USA DEBT ANALYSIS

Stu
Stu
1 month ago
Reply to  alx west

Time period?

alx west
alx west
1 month ago
Reply to  Stu

recent 10 years , for kicks

Stu
Stu
1 month ago
Reply to  alx west

I did 5 years, but stopped, as we are in uncharted territory after 2023. 2024 & 2025 are nightmares with all sorts of scenarios, but not nearly enough accurate information to go further at this time imo.

I started at 2019, or when all the BS & Mayhem started. It captures the essence of that period IMO of course. Enjoy!

– U.S. national debt for 2020 was 26.589 trillion US dollars, a 23.37% increase from 2019.
> The 2019 economic downturn from Covid and in 2020 etc. had a huge impact (with Ours and Others Governments Help of course.) on the economy. From its massive affect on the Countries Output. Also playing a role, were the Printing Presses if you will, as the Government went over the top in its Spending to help support the Economy. Unfortunately it also raised the Country’s Debt, by stealing roughly another 18% of GDP!!

– U.S. national debt for 2022 was 29.340 trillion US dollars, a 4.64% increase from 2021.
– U.S. national debt for 2021 was 28.039 trillion US dollars, a 5.45% increase from 2020.
>> The 2021 and 2022 period had the privilege of being the “Clean Up Crew” for the past few years before them. This decline was influenced by a combination of the economic recovery not being nearly the recovery expected and even more debt piled on top. The federal spending, decreasing where it made sense, got lost on everyone, and so they decided to print and spend even more, but unfortunately on Pet Projects, and Emotional “Do Good Years With Others Money” were created. It was “Raining Money” in The World at this point! America Last was OK, as long as we were helping others out, in any way at all, at Our Expense!

– U.S. national debt for 2023 was 31.811 trillion US dollars, a 8.42% increase from 2022.
> Simply “Jumping The Shark” at this point. All bets are off from this point forward. So much money was literally “Siphoned Off” And From Our Economy, it was devastating, and we are still picking up from it. A complete and utter disaster by Out Government In Charge throughout this theft of future generations whom will be impacted for certain!

With All Bets Off, the Government came up with Tariffs, America First, Border Security, and all sorts of maneuvers to get this ship righted. A lot of great ideas are being help up in court, and a lot of interference is being ignored. This is only slowing the inevitable as far as I can see. The longer it takes the more gets seen, and more changes get looked at. We are in a very tough, and somewhat self inflicted situation! I don’t envy our Leaders…

My Personal Motto: “You never give to the future, what you don’t have today to give”

TEF
TEF
1 month ago

Quite the blow-off .. for this credit cycle….

Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 month ago

And you can use a bar of the stuff to keep a door open.
If the bar is big enough.

Last edited 1 month ago by Lisa_Hooker
Frosty
Frosty
1 month ago

At this point in time, the December futures PAPER GOLD contracts at the COMEX represent 37,028,700 million ounces of physical gold. They do not have anywhere close to that amount available for delivery. They never do! Most contracts settle for cash, cold hard US dollars.

What is changing that has made gold go up so much?

People do not trust their Central Banks to manage the value of their currency! Just as Mish discussed. But it is not only the US that has its citizens reaching for tangible assets to hold ~ while their paper depreciates. It is happening worldwide.

Then there is the Central Banks of the world that can no longer trust the US and its dollar… Central Banks are shifting portions of their dollar reserves into gold. Physical gold.

The question that needs to be answered is: When will the holders of paper contracts at the COMEX “Stand For Delivery” in numbers that exhaust the physical inventory?

That is the day when the process of price discovery on the COMEX becomes immediate, tangible and is viewed real time.

The game of “Fractional Ownership” or “Re-Hypothication” (or whatever the hell the COMEX calls their paper contract price suppression scheme) comes to in inflection point.

“Stand For Delivery” The most feared words on the COMEX…

Frosty
Frosty
1 month ago
Reply to  Frosty

Supplement and correction:

First, the number of ounces represented by paper contracts for the December futures/options paper contracts on the COMEX is 37,028,700 ounces. The settlement of the December contract is the 24th of November 2025.

On that day, options contracts convert to futures contracts with their attendant benefits and margin requirements. The benefits are the ability to stand for delivery and cash settlement upon delivery. These contracts have been trading since 2020 and quite a bit of cash was driven into these contracts back then. Many are seriously in the money!

The December contract is already known as a higher volume physical delivery month so we should see some fireworks as the scramble for deliverable ounces drives prices. Also, expect to see large volumes of paper contracts hit the market to help control prices.

This is why some gold traders call it “The CRIMEX”.

We live in interesting times!

<>

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
1 month ago
Reply to  Frosty

WTI futures: (-)$40. Pay $140,000/kilo gold, if u can’t sell it for $70,000/kilo

Goldguy
Goldguy
1 month ago

Gold is going up anticipating ww3, it won’t be long now folks

Frosty
Frosty
1 month ago
Reply to  Goldguy

I’ll take a skip on the WW III idea. That kinda glows in the dark…

jlee
jlee
1 month ago

is no longer under control of what ? sound reason /logic ?
======================================================

“value and price are in record disconnect territory ” and there is no way the media or gov control can reconnect the two and no way to measure it either. ” .. send me my award in economics now. the buying power of money can’t be reliably measured, recorded or reported and neither can output.
==========================

attempts to do so exacerbate the mystery of the phenomenon of money itself.

money and government are not things, the are phenomena

we witness a true phenomenon. the outcome is a guess not based in any other threort than the one w mentioned here.

crazy talk, ? lets see

make sense of this

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
1 month ago

For 4Y, between Aug 2020 and Mar 2024 Gold was in accumulation.

Last edited 1 month ago by Michael Engel
MPO45v2
MPO45v2
1 month ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

How do you like IWM? A few months ago I sold $250 calls for Dec thinking it wouldn’t get there but look where we are now. Oh well, I might have to sell at $250 from $200 but I have hopes TACO will crash the market again. If I only make $50/share on thousand+ shares I will be sad but take it.

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
1 month ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Since mid Sept IWM osc up and down around 2021 and 2024 highs. 1M QQQ, SPY and IWM on Oct 16: an UT. QQQ 1D on. 1W Fri (C): ??? SPY 1D off. 1W: Fri (C)???? The risk is growing.

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
1 month ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

1D SPY, QQQ and IWM: both on.

Last edited 1 month ago by Michael Engel
K.V.Sadasivan
K.V.Sadasivan
1 month ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

Gold accumulation started in earnest from 2004,as Russia and China [ with its then more than $ 1 Trillion in US treasury Holding ], realized the need for a Gold Reserve.

I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
1 month ago

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino: ‘Bitcoin and Gold Will Outlast Any Other Currency’

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/12/tether-ceo-paolo-ardoino-bitcoin-and-gold-will-outlast-any-other-currency

Frosty
Frosty
1 month ago

Bitcoin only works if you can use your digital wallet. While it is fun in this electronic world, if the lights go out? No bitcoin…

But then again, if the lights go out, my gold mining stocks are worthless as well…

I guess I should have bought a decent amount of physical gold.

<>

Avery2
Avery2
1 month ago
Reply to  Frosty

Diesel / heating oil already in a farm fuel storage tank would be good to have.

Frosty
Frosty
1 month ago
Reply to  Avery2

Got that! Keeping it fresh is another thing…

😉

K.V.Sadasivan
K.V.Sadasivan
1 month ago
Reply to  Frosty

And Cryptos are basically Digital Fiats.

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
1 month ago

Trump: I want to help China, not to hurt China. XACO had a bad moment.

JCH1952
JCH1952
1 month ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

No, Xi had a good moment. Fun time watching Trump pull his foot out of his mouth.

J.Traveler
J.Traveler
1 month ago

In GOLD We TRUST …

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
1 month ago

Gold is rising bc XACO had a stroke. He will not meet Trump by the end of the month in AIPAC meeting. XACO top commando division protects him in Beijing. XACO caved in. Rare earth mineral embargo shifted from Oct 31, when Trump is in AIPAC, to Nov 1st. XACO embargo is against Pakistan, which signed a rare earth agreement with Trump, against Israel, which dismantled the evil axis and the Europeans, who are infected by Free Palestine ==> but not against Trump. If XACO is still alive, not ousted, he will fly to S. Korea after Trump leaves. If he is dead Trump will fly to Beijing to XACO’s funeral. He might be replace by a pro Trump.

Last edited 1 month ago by Michael Engel
Michael Engel
Michael Engel
1 month ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

Rare earth embargo o the whole world, ex the US, Dec 1st instead of Nov 1st.

Kermudjin
Kermudjin
1 month ago

Looking at it another way, gold was $43.15 when Nixon took us entirely off a gold standard backing US currency, 1971. In 54 years, the gold price has jumped 99%. Or, our dollar has lost 99% of its value since then due to inflationary central bank policy.

Thanks Mike. Great graphic explanation!

Last edited 1 month ago by Kermudjin
JCH1952
JCH1952
1 month ago

Soon they will be able to sell the gilded Oval Office and pay off the national debt. Gold is saying Trump is the worst President in American history. Congratulations to all who voted for him.

Wisdom Seeker
Wisdom Seeker
1 month ago
Reply to  JCH1952

If you think Gold’s price action is all about Trump and not the rest of the world, you have TDS.

P.S. you’re also wrong – gold price in dollars rose farther and faster in the 1970s to 1980 as Mish explained, and so your logic would flag Nixon and Carter as worst U.S. presidents.

Jojo
Jojo
1 month ago

Not long ago, Trump said something about a special surprise for SS recipients this year, due to the “success” of his tariffs.

Maybe his is buying up gold to include a coin with every check in January?

Sentient
Sentient
1 month ago
Reply to  Jojo

I think the surprise is that they’ll have to live on ramen and buffalo fish.

The Window Cleaner
The Window Cleaner
1 month ago

Gold never worked and never will work. The answer is to integrate the new paradigm of Strategic Monetary Gifting into the economy so as to resolve the present monopoly paradigm of Debt Only and its anomalies and bring greater abundance to all agents individual and commercial.

rjd1955
rjd1955
1 month ago

In English, please

Wisdom Seeker
Wisdom Seeker
1 month ago
Reply to  rjd1955

We’ve seen his spiel many times. It’s not any clearer even when fully explained.

The Window Cleaner
The Window Cleaner
1 month ago
Reply to  rjd1955

Its accounting, equal debits and credits. Thats all. It Doesn’t make any sense when you either don’t look at look at the process itself or your acculturated mental orthodoxies prevent you from seeing it.

SavyinDallas
SavyinDallas
1 month ago

It’s working for me. Loaded up on Gold and silver in 2021 after occasionally buying a coin or two for years. Not even close to selling. A pullback at some point is expected. No worry. Trump will assure the runup has a long way to run.

Harry
Harry
1 month ago

The real price of gold is less impressive and the twenty year hibernation periods….are likely still in play.

Harry
Harry
1 month ago

Where has the manipulation gone, the smack downs?

dtj
dtj
1 month ago

Major financial crisis imminent?

This time they don’t plan to hand out free money to the little people like they did in 2020. All the recent cuts to social spending are evidence that austerity is the plan to deal with the next crisis.

Good thing the newly expanded ICE force can be repurposed to quell domestic protests. It’s almost as if it was planned that way.

El Trumpedo
El Trumpedo
1 month ago
Reply to  dtj

Don’t need their votes anymore. The only people they need to keep happy now are their gestapo.

Avery2
Avery2
1 month ago
Reply to  El Trumpedo

60 years ago the Gestapo was a comic character in a prime time comedy show. Different country then.

El Trumpedo
El Trumpedo
1 month ago
Reply to  Avery2

They’re still clowns, just angry ones.

Wisdom Seeker
Wisdom Seeker
1 month ago
Reply to  dtj

The history of every crisis shows clearly that there is never a “plan to deal with the next crisis”, they always end up winging it.

The usual pattern is some unanticipated debt deflation followed by a panicked monetary inflation which then overshoots and “accidentally” further enriches the wealthy.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
1 month ago

Jaime Dimon’s “cockroach” comments is what have started things going sideways but it doesn’t help that some of these BDCs and related banks might be in deep trouble.

There’s a story that planes are being filled with silver and sent to London to handle the silver short squeeze there.

It’s total pandemonium and growing and guess who’s at the helm of the Trumptanic?

Trump & the GOP will own it 100%…..100%

Rogerroger
Rogerroger
1 month ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Nah they will blame biden obama etc.

BenW
BenW
1 month ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

You’re blaming Trump for a possible BDC implosion?

Dude, you never cease to amaze me.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
1 month ago
Reply to  BenW

BDCs are losing money as interest rates drop. who has been badgering the fed to lower rates now since he took office? who is replacing fed members with trump psychophants?

Try to do some deep thinking and you’ll come to the same conclusion. I know that’s asking a lot but try.

BenW
BenW
1 month ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Trump is the president of the Unites State of America. He has every right to badger the hell out of Powell to lower rates. And IF Cook committed mortgage fraud, then she should be toast.

I bet if you polled every adult in the USA you’d find that the vast majority want lower rates. What part of that do you not get?

Was the Fed late raising rates? HELL YES! Are the late with lowering rates? HELL YES! Is that Trump’s fault? HELL NO?

Also, do you think the OVERALL economy is really growing? No, of course not. So what usually happens when the economy is slowing? The Fed lowers rates.

I could give a rates ass that BDC’s are losing money for whatever reason. Private Equity is going to be at the nexus of the next financial meltdown. Let them all go under, if need be, because the FED is going to backstop like nobody has ever seen before. This is just SVB all over again.

Take your constant Trump hating BS & come up with some original thoughts once in a while.

El Trumpedo
El Trumpedo
1 month ago
Reply to  BenW

Aww… did he say mean things about daddy? Rain on him!

Avery2
Avery2
1 month ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

I’d go down with Sarah Brightman before Celine Dion.

Last edited 1 month ago by Avery2
Ryan Lynn
Ryan Lynn
1 month ago

It has to be more than that. If it was just about the US the dollar would be weakening. Its not in any meaningful way recently. As gold has skyrocketed over the last month dxy is actually up almost 2%.

Debasement trade? General lack of faith in fiat? Other things? I’m not sure, but its definitely more than the Fed, Trump, and the deficit.

Wisdom Seeker
Wisdom Seeker
1 month ago
Reply to  Ryan Lynn

Bingo. And if the US-China trade headlines are serious, then why hasn’t the dollar-yuan exchange rate moved even slightly?

BenW
BenW
1 month ago
Reply to  Wisdom Seeker

Because China only allows the yuan to float by 2%.

ICYMI, that’s called currency manipulation.

Sentient
Sentient
1 month ago
Reply to  Ryan Lynn

All currencies are weakening.

BenW
BenW
1 month ago
Reply to  Sentient

Exactly! Because everyone has their own debt problems.

B.T.
B.T.
1 month ago

Not sure the reasoning is accurate. Central bank buying has done a lot of the heavy lifting here for reasons that are unrelated to the Fed or the deficit, though both I’m sure have had an impact. China in particular has wanted to increase hard reserves that are free from potential US political interference.

You name it
You name it
1 month ago
Reply to  B.T.

+ BRICS need some kind of a common currency, GLD fits the bill. Average institutional investment around 2.5% only. Retail investors will be piling in late as usual. So plenty of room to the upside. USD debasement (intentional?) serious enough though.

bmcc
bmcc
1 month ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock

gold has been money in all BRIC countries for many centuries. the recent computer cursor currency experiment since 1971 is a blink of eye. whether the BRICS do it together or separately, gold is money.

Augustine
Augustine
1 month ago
Reply to  bmcc

God is not money in any country in earth. All taxes have to be paid with fiat.

alx west
alx west
1 month ago
Reply to  Mike Shedlock

yeah. brics common currency is BS.. too many diff players!

it is possible to use Chinese yan for settlement. but it is 10 20 years later
====

it is all talk. i have been hearing this BRICS currency song for last 15 years

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