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Goods Trade Deficit Hits Another New Record as Exports Sink While Imports Rise

Goods balance of trade from Census Department, chart by Mish

Advance International Trade in Goods

  • The international trade deficit was $107.6 billion in January, up $7.2 billion from $100.5 billion in December. 
  • Exports of goods for January were $154.8 billion, $2.8 billion less than December exports. 
  • Imports of goods for January were $262.5 billion, $4.4 billion more than December imports.
  • The goods deficit widened by 7.2%

Goods and Services 

Goods balance of trade from Census Department, chart by Mish

The Advance Report from the Census Bureau only includes goods. The US runs a small surplus in services but this is ugly.

Gross Domestic Product

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total market value, expressed in dollars, of all final goods and services produced in an economy in a given year.

For accounting purposes, exports add to GDP and imports subtract so this data in isolation will subtract from GDP estimates. 

In practice, imports do not subtract from GDP. 

The key word is “domestic”.

Imports are not domestic. Shouldn’t they be subtracted?

The answer is only if they were incorrectly totaled in the first place.

Think Imports and Trade Deficits Impact GDP? Think Again!

For discussion of imports as related to GDP, please see Think Imports and Trade Deficits Impact GDP? Think Again!

The current textbook and classroom treatment of how international trade is measured as part of GDP can lead to misconceptions if not properly explained.

Yet, imports need to be subtracted because sales were incorrectly totaled as domestic.

So, in isolation, GDP estimates will fall on this data.

Trump’s “Historical Trade Deal” With China Final Results Are a Big Zero

The results of President Trump’s historical trade deal with China are in. 

In case you missed it, please see Trump’s “Historical Trade Deal” With China Final Results Are a Big Zero

In January 2020, former President Donald Trump signed a trade deal that committed China to purchase an additional $200 billion of US exports over 2020-21. The data are now in. In the end, China bought none of that extra $200 billion.

This post originated on MishTalk.Com.

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3 Comments
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Oldest Most Voted
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
4 years ago
Kind of hard to not have “deficits,” when all we are capable of producing to trade with is dollar bills, while the rest produce other stuff.
That setup may look great for the dollar producers for macro-myopics like Krugman. But the problem is, very, very few Americans are in either a position to simply print dollars, or are close enough to those who are in that position, to be handed some. So, the only ones for whom that setup s great, are The Fed itself, the USG and the leech army of Fed Welfare Queens.
vanderlyn
vanderlyn
4 years ago
this is the curse of the fiat reserve currency.    it’s more a curse in long run though in short term it can feel great.   past few generations of amerikans had 3rd base cushy lives.   village idiots could live large.    that is slowing down past few decades and might crater into a 1929 style great depression multi decade depression.    hocking the future for short term hits on the opium pipe and scotch and soda is never smart.   it’s a losers life.  
Sunriver
Sunriver
4 years ago
No big deal
1) $1 trillion yearly trade deficits forever.
2) FED balance sheet over $10 trillion coming right up
3) Federal government yearly deficit over $1 trillion forever. Make it over $5 trillion on some years.
4) I’m sure glad we have SWIFT so that we have the infrastructure in place to rack up all this unpayable debt! I hope the cpu for swift is 64 bit!
5) Banana Republic coming right up!

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