On an unadjusted basis government jobs rose by 984,000. The BLS says jobs rose by 73,000. A reader asked about this.
Seasonal Adjustments
“Govt +984k adjusted to +73k How does this make any sense? Aren’t “seasonal adjustments” seasonal?“
Government Jobs Are Highly Seasonal
Many people mock seasonal adjustments but without them, employment would have risen by well over a million in September vs the reported 336,000 without those adjustments (excluding the private adjustment).
Private went the other way. The net of private and government seasonal adjustments was +582,000 turned into 336,000.
Looking at unadjusted numbers month-over-month is simply wrong.
A focus on unadjusted numbers makes sense only compared to the same month in prior years.
Change in Government Employment From Year Ago
From a year ago, the wild swings are gone. Economists use seasonal adjustments for reasons that should now be clear.
That does not mean the underlying data is any good, but there is nothing inherently wrong with adjusting numbers. In fact, they need to be.
Jobs Unexpectedly Surge by 336,000 But Employment Only Rises by 86,000
I do a detailed look every month at the jobs report.
For September of 2023, please see Jobs Unexpectedly Surge by 336,000 But Employment Only Rises by 86,000
What Going On?
It’s called manipulation, and it has been occurring for a longtime now, by the “Ruling Class” that has fingers in all the pies, so to speak…
The CR Budgets, the massive Inflation we have been ushering in, albeit very slowly so it wouldn’t be noticed, until it was, the NGO’s wanting, but more importantly needing, more and more money to get the job done being asked of them. The same with the SJW’s, MSM, Banks, and the likes of BLM, Antifa, and of course The Teachers Unions and pretty much All Unions paid by the Taxpayers via the Government.
If the Government wants it done to us, then it’s: More, More, More as there “Official Motto” Now!!!
I combine to terms for lying:
“TOMFOOLERY”
and “COOKING numbers” >>> into a new term for Government lies (Econ Numbers):
“TOMCOOKERY.”
I NEVER believe a single number emanating from our Government Agencies. THEY LIE for a living.
yup. mish’s and all analysts” government numbers analysis is basically madness. it reminds me of the character Mr. Haney on the old idiot box show, green acres.
Two part time jobs means that a HUGE component of PRICE INFLATION NUMBERS, health care, are all OUT OF POCKET.
If I were to share with you my number one expense out of pocket, hands down when I retired at 38 and became self-employed: HEALTH CARE PREMIUMS plus out-of-pocket expenses for FIVE KIDNEY STONES from the age of 38 to 50 years old. MY DEDUCTIBLES for my Obamacare were $15,000 EACH for my wife and I.
LUCKILY my wife was and IS healthy. I AM A MESS.
some jurisdictions in pax dumbfuckistan have free healthcare via medicaide. and it’s now top notch. they even pay for your aspirin. zero costs to the user. of course any nit wit knows somebody is paying. the newborns will get the bill when they mature to adults. but the free shit army rolls from the NYFED to the medicaide to the C suites at MIC and bankers…….
Bears eat a lot of berries, gaining fat, before hibernation. That’s Bidenomic.
I wonder how many of these 22 million government employees do anything useful?
Vaccine injuries and deaths amongst working age people are creating confusion.
Just looked @ Debt to the Penny. We crossed the $33T on 9/15, and today we’re at $33.478T.
I know the debt actually moves up and down some as it continues to climb steadily higher.
But, $478B in less than 3 weeks. WOW! Just WOW!!!
“Government Jobs Rose by Nearly 1 Million Unadjusted in Sept, What Going On?”
Mish, let’s keep this simple. What’s going on is the labor market is still rocking along without any care in the world that hopefully the Fed will be forced to raise the FFR on 11/1. For the Fed to not do so would be very bad. More to follow, of course, next week when Sept CPI is released.
I sincerely hope the Fed is forced to raise the FFR by another 75 basis points before it’s all said and done. We need 8%+ 30YFRM to help push housing into a REAL recession so you’ll stop yammering about meaningless “SALES” crash & get onto what matters: 3-4 years of real price declines across the board.
We need $1T+ annual interest expense over the next 15 months to really get people’s attention. I’d love to see a moderate recession in 2024 that drops revenue down to $4T with a $2T+ deficit & $1.3T’ish annual interest expense. Those are the kind of numbers that should get some attention.
Go Jim Jordan! Let’s get you into the Speakership & start restoring some fiscal sanity to DC.
won’t happen
NEOCONS/rino’s will continue to spend on wars via more DEBT
dimwitted democrats will continue to spend on takers
meaning
$revenue(income taxes + new debt) == all time highs
1% demand it
SINCE raygunomics took hold, we have borrowed more than we produce. this is an age old idiocy that usually ends in some form of jubilee. debt forgiveness, default, or currency replacement. all 10s are now 100s………..or just drop an extra zero into every amerikans bank, brokerage…….account. remember when a millionaire was something extraordinary? we’ll have our first trillionaires soon enough girls.
First one question: In what states were the government jobs created? Several states have been growing rapidly and they do need government workers and there are states that are either stagnating or even losing populations. Those states might still find a reason to increase public workers rightly or not.
First observation: The economy is proving to be more resilient than many, me included, expected so lower interest rates are put off to a time that is receding into obscurity as the usual signs that we are used to using are proving not as reliable as before. We have all been used to recessions when unemployment skyrockets because there was a wealth of Boomers to lay off. That abondance is over. The dearth of labor changes the equation when it comes to unemployment, wages and growth. It started a few years ago but it is only now that we are seeing it full effects.
I have not a second question nor a second observation so you will have to wait for more of my stunningly brilliant questions and observations to a later time.
Why does the government still highlight non-farm payrolls? Ag is a highly productive sector of the economy which is also, I believe, produces a positive balance of trade. When the economy was transitioning from 80%+ agrarian to low single digits, tracking non-farm payrolls made sense. Now, employment characteristics in this sector reflect the economy – gains are welcome and losses reflect productivity. What am I missing?
New jobs numbers:
What % of these jobs:
1- Are full-time, w company paid health insurance?
2 – 2nd jobs?
3 – Contract
Average annual wage of these jobs?
Ave annual wage compared to:
1 – ave home cost
2 – ave rent?
“What percent are full-time, with company paid health insurance?”
That’s a damn good question especially the way the BLS calculates full time employment.
If you work three part time jobs that total a combined 35 hours that is considered “one full time employment” but “three jobs”. For purposes of Obamacare calculations, full time employment is 32 hours. This created an incentive for employers to reduce hours to 30 or so, in turn creating a need for people to work extra jobs to make ends meet.
I need to add this to my post.
Half truths and misleading information remind me of the Obama administration.
Lost your full-time job, then got two part-time jobs?
“Dear Leader Obama created a job!”
MSNBC
True, but a half truth.
The true job numbers, especially purchasing power per job, are certainly not a sign of quality employment when the onion is peeled back.
Regarding Obamacare, it’s a factor in reducing the percentage of jobs that are full-time, with fully company paid benefits.
A NY Fed survey in 2016 noted job cuts due to Obamacare, and I don’t see signs of improvement.
Archived CNBC article.
https://archive.ph/VBnqX#selection-1197.0-1197.79
Actually, why is this important. For all of 2023, the unemployement rate has fluctuated between 3.5-3.8%.
On what planet do you think significant numbers of jobs meet those criteria you’re setting, GIVEN that we’re dealing with job increases at the margins.
It really doesn’t make sense nor does Mish’s response. It’s completely naive to think those types of jobs are being created in large numbers with such low unemployment & a tight labor market. Those open 9.6M jobs are BS and will go poof, when a real recession arrives.
Those types of jobs matter the most when you’re coming out a recession not in the current situation we find ourselves in nowadays. We’ve been waiting for at least six months for the recession to arrive and now it’s starting to look like it might not happen for at least 6-9 months, if at all.
For the millionth time, we’re running $2T annual deficits. That all by itself is holding back a recession. It’s that simple.
I read we lost over 800k full time jobs. Seems the job of the BLS is to create a good headline.
“Seems the job of the BLS is to create a good headline.”
Perhaps they are now counting the government snow jobs. ;\^)
Seriously though, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if the government is on a hiring spree to go along with the ever increasing debt-backed spending they are doing, which boosts GDP numbers much higher than the private sector economy is producing, in order to make the economic picture of the US look much better than it is. Especially consider the proximity to the ’24 elections.