At the Rule Symposium, Kitco’s Jeremy Szafron interviews Danielle DiMartino Booth. Watch the interview.
Jeremy Szafron, Anchor at Kitco News, interviews Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of QI Research, at the Rick Rule Symposium in Boca Raton.
Booth discusses Powell’s delayed rate cuts, the looming consumer debt crisis, rising unemployment, the rise in bankruptcy filings, the unprecedented levels of non-mortgage debt among U.S. households, when the stock market might take a hit, and deficit spending no matter who wins the election.
It’s a great interview. Booth thinks a recession is underway. So do I but she called it first. Out timing differs, not the outcome.
Recession When?
I think a recession started in May or June and I have seen little to change my mind.
For discussion, please see Weak Data Says a Recession Has Already Started, Let’s Now Discuss When
The Fed’s Beige Book solidifies the recession view.
Note that 5 out of 12 Fed Districts Show Flat or Declining Economic Growth
The Progression
- From Modest Growth to Slight or Flat (2)
- From Slight Growth to Flat to Decline (5)
- From Flat to Decline (3)
- From Already Declining to Worsening (2)
This looks very recessionary because it is very recessionary. I think within 2-3 months a majority will be in decline.
Recession won’t start then. It’s already started.
I quit listening to anything Booth has to say when, in the last video you linked, she falsely claimed layoffs are skyrocketing. She’s clearly an agenda driven wonk.
Nothing gets you thru hard times better than cash.
Down from breakneck pandemic levels means a return to normal times, business as usual. That’s it.
For anyone interested in French politics, the National Assembly just voted on who will be the next Speaker of the Assembly. It is an important position and comes in fourth succession and after the last election changes were expected by the Left and the Right who want their man in. The deputies vote till they have a result and this took three rounds of voting. The vote is secret and the deputies one by one come to the front and drop their vote into an urn which strangely resembles a chamber pot. After three tries the elected Yaël Braun-Pivet who was the former Speaker and is in Macron’s party. Plus que ça change, plus que ça reste-la même.
By the way, what definition of recession are people using these days ? Everyone seems to have made up their own but the real definition is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP.
NBER
There is no real definition. The NBER declares it, after the fact. It’s a consensus view.
Chip stocks hammered by Biden and Trump. Effectively cutting off China and Taiwan will hamper things:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-asml-and-tsmc-stocks-got-hammered–heres-why-203405181.html
Vote the Austerity Party.
I think a recession started in May or June and I have seen little to change my mind.
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CFNAI-MA3 says otherwise. It actually went positive in June. It is effectively a return to the trendline from 2010-2019 since interest rates were hiked. I said in the previous thread. The Fed not hiking soon enough likely costs Biden a second term due to too much inflation and not enough return to the slow growth/low growth era of the 2010s without much inflation. All bets are off if Trump/Vance win in November. Deregulation likely leads to more inflation and possible hike by the Fed in 2025. Project 2025 also has plans to effectively neuter the Fed and wind it down. Vance sounded very protectionist last night so tariffs on all imported goods might be on the table. Impossible to say how things will play out but this would all be very inflationary. Effectively the US will be in this vacillatory period of upheaval until 2033. Effectively people want growth without inflation but that is no longer possible in an economy that is globalized and multiple countries are now not just emerging but have emerged into a first world economy.
https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/cfnai/current-data
According to your link:
(1) CFNAI is not yet available for June.
(2) The CFNAI released June 25 was for May.
(3) The CFNAI-3 released June 25, covering the 3 months of March-April-May, is still negative.
You did not do your credibility any favors here.
And this data is not inconsistent with Amish’s prediction. The next CFNAI release might be informative though.
i’m going long FedCoin. I’ve started an online school for mining FedCoin as it will be the only accepted currency for purchasing AI access to interface with the outside world.
I’ve also begun an online self sufficent farming school, so I can cover both sides of the trade.
Recession,is impossible, we have had recession since banks failed in 2008, its all wallpaper hiding the real world to blind side us to the unfolding depression, a natural consequence of the decline and fall of the baby boom demographics and the full throttle currency inflation caused by the death of the gold standard. There is no magic, only numbers, and if one can do math, one can see how the numbers have been manipulated.
The beauty is globohomo tied all currencies together to the dollar, so a falling tide sinks all ships and DEI education guarantees no one can understand the world they have been miseducated to live in.
learn to garden, you can either eat what you grow or work on one of the estates of our lords and masters. the rest of you, get off my lawn.
if you were invested in stonk, your wealth grew 5x. if you used leverage, your wealth is now 10x or more. if you were in bitcoin, you’re probably worth 100’s of millions. what’s not to like?
The regime change King and his proxies herd together to remove Biden.
Obama failed with Putin, the Ayatollah, Bibi and Trump. His only success in Ukraine started a disaster. They gang together, imitating each other, against Biden bc they smell blood. Biden is an injured animal in the political jungle. His “best friends” stabbed him in the back. The lame duck Biden and Dr Jill hopefully will f**k them.
Hunter B. was not the only political dynasty progeny involved in Burisma. Pelosi, Kerry and Romney, for starters. Penny Pritzker involved with Blackrock has staked more claims in Ukraine than Vlad. Old Joe has to go away quietly. Perhaps that is why the FBI “raided” his Corvette garage. Another Deep State mop-up job, as in the case of Diddy and Weiner hard drives, among their other scavenger hunt adventures.
McCormick’s cinnamon might protect us from the D infection.
Since this is about interviews, I have one between Sandy Monroe and Elon Musk at the launch of Cybertruck. Most of the interview is technological, but the last five minutes turn philosophical.
https://youtu.be/ky1Z2klPalw?t=2306
You can either sit on piles of cash and watch it lose value or you can buy assets.
10 yrs after currency collapse many stocks will regain some or most of their value. The former USD will still be worthless.
most of the companies are proxies to hide cash from the deep state, few produce necessary products and goods. The few real companies will indeed at some point have a real positive valuation in regards the rest of the Wall Street Shuffle, but in a failing currency, it would be hard to understand the exact valuation due to flucuations in demand and accounting practices as well as global currency whatever it may be. A single default currency? a series of 10 or so top trading currencies? what will have enough value and liquidity to fulfill the needs of everyone, it may very well depend on your geographic location…..
“People are still buying” Nobody has any concept of just how much counterfeit US currency has really been created …… Now we’re finding out .
I agree with Danielle- Let the mouse-clicking of trillions out of thin air resume ….. It worked so well for the last 2 decades .
If Trump win Indian will rule MSFT, GOOGL, IBM…and the white house.
How?
DJ Vance wife is an Indian lawyer. She is the brain. JD Vance and Trump will not tolerate a Nasdaq decline on their watch.
Vance is a protectionist. I expect all legal immigration programs to be halted and those on H1B to be deported when their visa comes up for renewal should Trump/Vance take/win the White House come November. Vance is truly the heir apparent to Trump in a non-racist way. You can never call him racist b/c his wife isn’t white.
Rayciss dont mind sex with other ethnicities, an undisputed fact.
JD Vance wife will veto it.
is that an old indian joke? when asked why the Indian kept saying Chance? instead of HOW?
he replied, me know how, me just want chance….
The economy entered a lull. Biden’s stimulus is fading. When new factories will be completed demand for highly skilled workers and cylon sapphire rings will be high.
most of u can’t afford a platinum ring with a 5ct ceylon sapphire center.
not a problem, hardly a worry….
the new Biden/harris regime will mandate free Cylon Saphire rings for all citizens of the empire, legal or illegal. It will be taped to your Obama phone when the new models are sent out. Be sure to register Democrat and make sure you write in your ring size when you vote.
Biden/Harris might send u a silver ring with a synthetic blue zircon ballerina.
Ceylon sapphires (from Sri Lanka) or Cylon sapphires (from cute but murderous robots)? The difference matters.
The robots are cooler, and plastic star war shit, et al is easier to pump out of 3rd world factories, shine with paint and shift to the Rubes for Votes and Likes in the Empire of the New Tomorrow.
I don’t get it … nobody wants to talk about the elephant in the room when they discuss jobs…
Specifically that a big proportion of the jobs being ‘created’ are actually a result of the epic numbers of severe injuries and deaths caused by the covid vaccines in the working age population
This is important because these jobs are not a result of a robust economy….
Instead the talking heads and analysts just cannot understand the disconnect between the economy and the wonderful jobs reports
Almost no one mentions most of the jobs created are low paying part time jobs.
What about “prompt engineers”?
they will be laid off and have to learn to code, like most journalists and talking heads. Obama is starting a series of for profit, learn to code online, schools. They will be mandatory in order to receive benefits and retraining.
Their Tesla’s will be disabled from leaving a 5 mile radius and they will be coerced by the authorities controlling their UberEats and other food access apps.
They can’t cook other than instant noodles, they are in a trap, they will be molded to serve..
held by illegal immigrants from china,india and the far east. a strange group to be crossing from Mexico, almost like it was funded by someone trying to subjugate this nation.
I have a lot of anecdotal evidence in agreement your post. More various cancers in middle age people (not lung) since the Marlboro Man, heavy industry and leaded gasoline a half century ago. Likewise cardio-vascular issues seemingly out of nowhere. Medical leave at work, not necessarily out of the job completely. But someone at the job has to make up the difference if nobody new is added, which is abhorrent in big corporations. Dowd tracks the life insurers for death stats. Does he track any insurers for Long Term Disability (LTD)? I understand that many small employers do not provide this benefit / option in the first place, however. so would be an incomplete data set.
many employers actually hold their own life insurance policies of their employees, so when the employee leaves this mortal plane, they get a nice pile of cash to put against the bottom line. Walmart is known to do this, many others as well. Google it.
Also one of the reasons for a bioengineered virus and vaccine is to reduce the population via reduced immunity and reduced fertility. I mean you don’t just make a virus in a lab to see if you can do it? Its a program paid for by people expecting results, the folks who ran it have gotten paid handsomely, it must have been a success on many levels, despite the dearth of attention in the press these days.
I agree with your vax injuries, deaths, etc. however I don’t think there are a lot of new jobs being created for this. I’m handicapped from multiple car accidents and see several specialists in addition to a PCP. It takes a LONG time to get appointments as the medical industry is extremely short staffed. My husband was in the ER this weekend. They are holding patients for 2-4 days in the ER waiting for a bed upstairs. They have plenty of beds but not enough nurses to staff them. The nurses unionized so they can only have “x” number of patients per nurse. The remainder wait in the ER. My husband was supposed to follow-up with his pcp within 2-4 days. His PCP didn’t have any available appointments for OVER a week.
You probably don’t get it because it isn’t true. There are not “epic”’numbers of severe injuries and deaths caused by covid vaccines. Not here. Not anywhere else in the world.
Also, this just in: the earth is getting warmer every year because of man’s emissions.
And yes, man has landed on the moon, and the earth is not flat.
I did see Bigfoot and Elvis in a bar yesterday though.