Here’s the Tweet that caught my eye.
The title was cut off, but I found the chart and added to it.
Medium-sized firms show the steepest reactions in recessions and recoveries.
Recession comparisons to 2007 stand out.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
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Hiring Trends in Recessions by Size of Firms
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Mish
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Good chart. No real risk of a recession imo. Looking at the chart closely nowhere in that timeline have interest rates been as low for as long as this. We are in uncharted waters imo. Companies are just rolling over debt again. Lower rates are coming in 2020.
In the US, low paying crap jobs are always hiring, have high turnover, and the only applicants are individuals you’d have to be desperate to hire (because they suck so bad they will quit or be fired within months).
There is serious salary “inflation” in industries showered by nearly-free debt, er I mean “investment”, money. If I want to hire a junior software dev, I have to pay double what I myself made decades ago (inflation adjusted) to someone who is likely to cause a net LOSS to team productivity for 6+ months. It’s bananas.
I think this adds up to: a skill-challenged labor force in the US, i.e., individuals who aren’t as productive as they could and should be.
That is true about high turnover. The custodial company that cleans our building is having a hard job getting anything done, because people keep quitting and walking off the job. I come in to work in the morning today and once again my garbage is not taken out with yesterday’s take out smelling up my room, and other stuff not cleaned.
Some jobs aren’t as desirable and will have high turnover while always advertising that they are hiring.
Funny that that is your example, it is mine too: wife manages house cleaners. Seems like someone is quitting every week or two.
How high skilled are the jobs if they are getting created overseas in countries like India and China. Labor is no longer purely a domestic thing contained by lines on a map. Companies no longer care about those lines.
Productivity growth hasnt broken 2% since before 2001. The reason for this isnt lack of skilled people. It is simply that developed economies slow down from a productivity standpoint as standards of living rise. It becomes increasingly harder to get productivity growth gains without larger and larger amounts of investment to get it.
“The latter’s recent decline, pictured below, is quite dramatic.”
…
Would love to know how much do to A) small business not able to hire do health insurance cost increase (another 5% for 2020 per cnbc) and B) potential employees for small businesses opting to work for larger firms that offer health insurance.
“We are hiring slave workers at slave wages”
Then take some risk and work for yourself!
“I was in the US last week. Everywhere I went I saw signs “we are hiring”.”
Meanwhile back in Canada, doesn’t it have that 2015 feel with what seems to be a large number of coming layoffs. CN Rail, CP Rail, Bombardier, Ford, Alberta government, FCL, Husky, Haliburton, Bank of Montreal, Rona. Alberta looks to be especially hard hit.
Employment numbers out tomorrow, 1800 jobs lost in Oct, will that continue? Im not seeing many “we are hiring” signs here?
Besides the fact that I wouldnt trust any numbers coming out of this administration, this posting of “we are hiring” signs 24/7 has been going on for years. They want a continuous supply of applicants for jobs so they can hire only the best people — with math-ability tests (Chase) and drug tests failing a lot of people, you need that never-ending line of desperate people to apply for jobs.