Home Prices Disconnect From Rent and OER
Home Price Disconnect Notes
- National is the Case-Shiller national home price index.
- 10-City represents the weighted average of the cities in the first chart.
- CPI is the Consumer Price Index
- OER stands for Owner’s Equivalent Rent. It is the single largest component in the CPI with a current weight of 24.251% of the total CPI.
- Rent of Primary Residence is a CPI component with a weight of 7.398% of the CPI.
OER is the mythical price the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) says one would pay to rent one’s own house from oneself, unfurnished, without utilities.
CS National, Top 10 Metro Percent Change From Year Ago
Percent Change From Year Ago Notes (December)
- CPI: 7.0%
- OER: 3.79%
- Rent: 3.33%
- Case-Shiller 10-City: 16.98%
- Case-Shiller National: 18.84%
CPI Understated?
Yes, by a lot.
I do not believe OER is only up 3.79%. Nor do I believe rent is only up 3.3%.
Moreover, home prices are not directly in the CPI, only OER and and Rent.
CPI vs Case-Shiller Adjusted CPI
Adjusted CPI Discussion
My Case-Shiller adjusted CPI is calculated by substituting the percentage change in the Case-Shiller national index for OER in the CPI.
The result is an adjusted annual CPI rise of 9.88%
There is a lot of controversy over this procedure. The BLS and many economists will point out that houses are not a “consumer” expense but a “capital” expense.
That’s mostly accurate except historically home prices used to be in the CPI so historical comparisons are a bit distorted.
This historical distortion never mattered much in practice because the second chart shows OER, the CPI, rent, and home prices all rose in sync.
Real Interest Rates
Real Interest Rates Discussion
One can calculate “real” (inflation-adjusted) interest rates by subtracting the rate the Fed charges from CPI measures.
The Fed charges 0.8%, mortgage rates had been around 2% so one could formulate another version of “real” based on mortgages.
No matter how you slice it, rates are amazingly low. With home prices soaring 18% but the Fed Funds Rate at 0.08% and mortgages now at 4% or so, it’s no wonder we have another housing bubble and bubbles in equities.
The Fed wanted higher inflation and finally got it in spades.
Why the Inflation Surge?
- Three rounds of fiscal stimulus, two by Biden and one by Trump
- Supply chain disruptions
- Massive change in consumer preferences from services to goods
- QE finally mattered
1: Fiscal Stimulus
There were three rounds of fiscal stimulus, the last two of which were unwarranted in size and scope.
In addition to direct fiscal stimulus, Trump initiated and Biden twice extended evictions. Many people made no attempt to pay rent and instead spent that money
2: Supply Chain Disruptions
Supply chain disruptions erupted due to Covid-19.
3: Massive change in consumer preferences from services to goods
As a result of Covid consumers stopped eating out, going to the gym, going to movies, reduced haircuts etc. Instead they needed home offices, new computers, etc.
QE Finally Matters
Thanks to the Fed’s QE policy, the stock market made an enormous bubbles.
The bubble wealth effect led people chasing homes regardless of price. And a huge wave of boomer retirements from those feeling wealthy increased the labor shortage.
Poor Measure of Inflation
The big problem the Fed failed to see is that the CPI is an extremely poor measure of inflation.
I assure you inflation matters, not just alleged consumer inflation.
The Fed missed a huge jump in inflation because it does not know what to look at.
President Biden Says “I Feel Your Pain”
President Biden Says “I Feel Your Pain”, He Means His Pain in Polls
‘I know food prices are up, and we’re working to bring them down,’ says President Biden.
Biden and Inflation Go Hand in Hand
Unfortunately, everything Biden stands for is inflationary: Free education, free child care, free paid leave, etc.
The president also has a big push for unions, and that’s guaranteed to raise the price of everything the unions touch.
Finally, president Biden increased tariffs on Canadian lumber helping fuel home price inflation.
CPI Up Most in 40 Years
For more on the CPI, please see CPI Jumps Most Since February 1982, Up at Least 0.5% 9 Out of Eleven Months
Alleged “Benefits of Running the Economy Hot”
Meanwhile, Charles Evans, president and chief executive officer of the Chicago Fed wants to run the economy hot.
For discussion, please see Chicago Fed President Praises the “Benefits of Running the Economy Hot”
This post originated on MishTalk.Com.
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WASHINGTON, D.C. (February 23, 2022) – Mortgage applications decreased 13.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 18, 2022.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 13.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 16 percent from the previous week and was 56 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 10 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
“Mortgage applications dropped to their lowest level since December 2019 last week, as mortgage rates continued to inch higher. The 30-year fixed rate was 4.06 percent, almost a full percentage point higher than a year ago. Higher mortgage rates have quickly shut off refinances, with activity down in six of the first seven weeks of 2022. Conventional refinances in particular saw a 17 percent decrease last week,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Purchase applications, already constrained by elevated sales prices and tight inventory, have also been impacted by these higher rates and declined for the third straight week. While the average loan size did not increase this week, it remained close to the survey’s record high.”