If you think things are expensive now just wait until they are free. “Firstly, if domestic banks extend credit mainly for consumption, then final demand increases by the amount of loans, but there is no increase in available goods and services. Hence prices have to rise. This consumer price inflation scenario is the first one would normally think of when considering an expansion in the money supply. But it is a special case. In the UK, more common is the second case: The majority of bank credit creation in the UK is not even used for transactions that contribute to and are part of GDP, but instead is used for asset transactions. They are not part of GDP, since national income accountants require a ‘value added’ for inclusion in GDP, not just the shifting of ownership rights from one person to another. When bank credit for asset transactions rises, asset prices are driven up, because the loans do not transfer existing purchasing power, but instead constitute an increase in net purchasing power: money is being created and injected into asset markets. When a larger effective demand for assets is exerted, while in the short-term the amount of available assets is largely fixed, the price of assets must rise.” QE after 2008 did not cause inflation because they were not expanding broad credit creation and money supply significantly as they are now.
shamrock
2 years ago
There you go again, charting a linear variable (annual increase in CPI) versus an exponential variable (total M2 money supply). Of course you aren’t going to get a correlation. Either chart the annual increase in the M2 with the annual increase of CPI, or, chart the cumulative increase in CPI and the cumulative increase of M2. The chart you have is apples to oranges.
“In addition to direct fiscal stimulus, Trump initiated and Biden twice extended evictions. Many people made no attempt to pay rent and instead spent that money”
…
Yes. Thanks for mentioning this, most “experts” don’t. But I always lump moratorium in with general loan forbearance. Two biggies still in effect. Per MBA over 700K mortgages in forbearance (12/31/21) and federal student loans (> $1 trillion) payments deferred till May 1st.
billybobjr
2 years ago
With covid fading away the Democrats need a new bogeyman so insert the Russians are coming . The Russian economy
is about a 1/10th that of the USA or about the size of Texas GDP. They have little Tech and their economy is about oil and gas
natural resources . This again is a manufactured crisis to try and improve Bidens appeal . The very sad part
is he had all his appointees around him yesterday with mask on including military leaders to perpetuate the ruse.
Another article stated that Russian shipments of energy had gone up lately from 170 billion a year to 250 billion a year .
Sounds like inflation to me . Yet, to put that into perspective Microsoft just went past 3T in value recently . It really is sad
the amount of of people that will sign on to these manufactured crisis. People setting at a table fully aware its about improving
the image of the politician with no real truth behind it to help the ones in power stay there . Yes Russia could invade but at
this point who trust the US Government any more after all the lies over the years but the MSM will definitely push the narrative for them.
thimk
2 years ago
excellent recap
Mish
2 years ago
Biden is responsible for two rounds of fiscal stimulus, poor Covid policies, and inane eviction moratoriums. His transportation czar did nothing, his union push is a push for more inflation, and increasing tariffs on Canadian lumber was a truly WTF moment.
Did I miss any inflationary actions other than what he wants to do an thankfully failed?
Don’t forget he shut down an oil pipeline from Canada and put a moratorium on drilling / fracking etc (ie things that could raise supply) and now has the nerve to complain about high oil and gas prices due to tight supply.
And just now he extended the Covid emergency when it’s clearly over. All so that the Federal government can continue to keep extra powers and money from this emergency. Seems like we replaced the war in Afghanistan with the war on Covid 🙁
2 rounds of fiscal stimulus? I guess the second one is the infrastructure bill?
Jojo
2 years ago
Why is Biden now less popular than Trump? He’s earned it.
‘Lower than Trump’ is hardly the first year result the White House expected.
James S. Robbins | Opinion contributor
President Joe Biden is now so unpopular that he has fallen a bit below even Donald Trump’s dismal showing at this point in his presidency.
Real Clear Politics average of presidential approval polls has Biden at 41% approval and 53% disapproval. Trump’s corresponding 2018 approval number edges Biden at 41.4%, with disapproval at 53.9%.
How did it come to this? Biden started out with much higher approval than Trump, who was hampered in his first year by the false Russian collusion narrative and highly negative news coverage. But by the start of Trump’s second year, his numbers began slowly to improve; Biden’s have continued to sink. Now those converging lines have crossed.
Sheep attention is short lived…he was always going to be the rider of the pale horse…..he was chosen to crash America
Casual_Observer2020
2 years ago
Frankly speaking none of what’s happen is Trump or Biden’s fault. It is completely the fault of the Fed for keep rates so low when there was already so much fiscal stimulus since covid started. I blame mostly the Fed for inflation and high prices. We are in the final throes of a bubble similar to 2000 or 2007. The Fed may try to paper over asset values but I think we may get a double dip recession if the bond market goes haywire. If money floods into commodities and metals it will exacerbate the inflation problem further.
Biden is responsible for two rounds of fiscal stimulus, poor Covid policies, and inane eviction moratoriums. His transportation czar did nothing, his union push is a push for more inflation, and increasing tariffs on Canadian lumber was a truly WTF moment.
Casual_Observer2020
2 years ago
Biden would have been sitting pretty if the Fed would have hiked twice last year and started removing support. The stock market and economy would have been better off. So pray tell why has the Fed not hiked yet ? The Fed wants a Republican congress and divided government again.
Felix_Mish
2 years ago
Why rising prices? Mish’s three:
1) Money printing.
2) Supply chain disruptions.
3) Supply chain content changes.
Money printing: The US isn’t the only place with rising prices. Nor the only place printing money. Yawn. Won’t go away until politicians and economists stop believing printing money solves problems. Remember, in their minds printing money helps their subjects’ products be cheaper! Or something. In some magical way. Forever.
Supply chain traffic jams: Any flow/queuing system running near peak capacity is primed for jams. Classic example: A paper bag blowing on to a fast, filled freeway; suddenly, flow switches from 75mph to 0mph.
For those who want wage and price controls (by whatever name) to fix a supply chain traffic jam, please listen to the 20th century. It was an extended lesson on the effectiveness of such behavior. Or simply watch what’s clearly happening right now. Participants now know not to run the chain at 75mph, bumper to bumper.
Content changes: Wonderful! The US and certainly the rest of the world want this badly. In the case of much of the world, we’re talking about several billion people who were very, very poor and who are now not poor. Over a couple decades. Yeah, their needs have changed. And, as such, so have the needs of US people.
Sunriver
2 years ago
Fundamentally, the US should have been in a deflationary economic cycle since 2008. However, the liquidity juicing by the FED brings us to the birth pains of the inflation we have today. Horrific inflation if you factor in housing costs.
The only way the US fiat/moneterist economic system can survive, is negative real rates forever. Once the market realizes this situation is forever and that it is structural and necessary to have negative rates to fund the excessive debt, then precious metals trade much, much higher.
I believe this is why Mish says buy gold to avoid the FED’s, Biden’s, Trump’s, Obama’s, the Post 1971 list goes on, PAIN!
there is a great theory i agree with. volcker had some affect on inflation fighting. but the real job was the deficits were smaller and smaller under carter years. less spending by gov. until reagan blew that out of the water. aug 15, 1971 us dollar default was the day most of the trouble began. of course FDR did as much damage in 1933 making gold illegal to own for amerikans to own. all this is not really new. clipping coins and paper printing to oblivion has destroyed many an empire in history. funny the eastern roman empire’s money, the byzant, was sound for i believe 800 years. imagine that.
1971 default: That was the day the camel’s back was broken, wasn’t it? link to wtfhappenedin1971.com The interesting question is, “How could the straw have been kept off the camel’s back?” Any thoughts?
the guns and butter of the new amerikan empire of 1950s and 60s was unavoidable in my opinion. in 1945 amerika at around 6% of world population and depending how you calculate, 30 to 50% of world wealth. the hubris was never going to NOT happen. by 1965 LBJ had to take all the silver out of the coins. the french and others came to NY to get their gold. they saw the follies of our empire in indochina………..as they had done the same thing, only earlier. 1965 was the TOP of amerikan hegemony. the silver default on the money and the losing of a war, which was more of a massacre, not a real war, where we outspent the enemy by gobs and dropped more bombs than were dropped in europe in ww2……….was the beginning of the end. 1965 to 71. the rest is eyewash.
By 1965 the rest of the world (Europe, Japan) had fully rebuilt from WWII so they were catching up to America and so a wealth transfer was happening naturally. Hubris had very little to do with any of that.
Also right around 1970, the US became an oil importer for the first time. Instead of making money exporting oil, it was costing billions a year to import oil. That’s a big reason it all came crashing down in 71 because the US was never going to be able to pay for all that oil with gold.
In other words, the gold default was always going to happen and there was nothing that could stop it short of causing a depression in America.
the fed has what they spent trillions to create….super commodity cycle in play, the quest for natural resources will only grow..
the fed is most likely not in hurry to quash what they wanted all along….1/4 pt bumps are going to slow down the bubble….
whirlaway
2 years ago
Biden was riding high after the child tax credit was passed (even though it was temporary), and student debt relief was still a possibility. But he and the DONORcrats abandoned all that and tried to get by on woke nonsense. That has proved to be their downfall. They will get screwed in November this year. If the asset markets collapse and inflation doesn’t go down a lot, they will get screwed even more badly.
But once again, they will lose because they didn’t do anything for the average working American, and once again, after they lose, people like HR Clinton, 0-bama and Mish will say that the defeat was because the party ran “too far to the left”. Same as always!
And they’ll be right. The ‘woke nonsense’ they’ve tried and failed to pass IS EXACTLY the ‘too far to the left’ stuff that is going to doom them because you are correct that they’ve done nothing for the average working American.
Wokeism is not leftism. It is liberalism i.e. solely focused on social issues and social justice, with no concern on economic issues whatsoever. But what Clinton, 0-bama and Mish would do is to pretend that the DONORcrat Party tried to do something that was really left-wing i.e. with regard to economic issues and economic justice. And of course, they would be dead wrong.
The problem is that social issues and social justice issues can’t be separate from economic issues if they cost money to implement. Every issue they want in Build Back Better (free college, going green etc) costs money, lots of money.
Those people think money just gets printed at will or taxed from some infinite supply of Billionaires. They just don’t get that every dollar spent on social justice and social issues is a dollar that doesn’t get spent somewhere else.
AOC is Pelosi’s lapdog. The so-called squad has zero power and have surrendered to the establishment. Every. Single. Time. And Warren is good for issuing statements and tweets about inflation or health care or this or that or the other. Again, zero power to do anything.
The various factions in the Republican Party at least get what they want – the social conservatives get their abortion restrictions and bans, the libertarians get their tax cuts and deregulation, the neocons get their wars and so on. The progressives in the DONORcrat Party get nothing. Hell, even with a 75% majority in California, the DONORcrat establishment was able to prevent even placing single-payer health insurance for a vote.
vanderlyn
2 years ago
for the pure horse race, biden is lucky as hell. the Rs are gonna blow the doors off Ds in congress in 8 months. the heat of hate will be directed more at Rs. congress is even despised more than president. if the bubble pops and blows off and we have a deep recession or whatever happens, if it starts getting better by summertime of 2024 which is around 30 long long months away, biden will coast to re election if the donald is the R choice. as hillary was despised even more than donald in 2016, the donald is the most despised politician in the empire. sleepy joe did a front porch(actual basement) campaign of not campaigning. the 5th time a president has won that way. he can do it again if it is Chump on R ticket. as it is the party of chump i see nothing stopping sleepy joe from a second term. as a note, i despise both D and R parties and for decades vote libertarian and even greens down ticket.
Jmurr
2 years ago
Very similar to President Kamocho in Idiocracy. “I understand everybody’s (:: is all emotional right now”
ha ha ha. idiocracy. the best documentary on 21st amerikan life.
Captain Ahab
2 years ago
I thought Biden was talking about the shoddy (some would say laughable) performance of his VP at the Munich Security Conference. It was definitely painful to watch.
Eddie_T
2 years ago
My only problem with the Democrats losing seats in the mid-terms is that they stand to be replaced by Trumpite Republicans trying to appeal to the populist base the Donald incited into existence with his sloganeering and tactics of laying blame on everybody but himself.
Both houses of congress look to be poised to be taken back by the Republicans, and Biden looks, walks, and quacks like a lame duck in training.
But what does that get us mom and pops in fly-over country? More extremism we don’t want or need. More QAnon doofuses in charge. More of the social agendas of the religious right. I can’t wait.
Hopefully, what the mid-terms bring are impeachment hearings against Biden. QAnon and religious-right social agendas pale besides the current cluster fudge.
You want to lay all the blame on Biden. Frankly, you’e giving him far more credit than he deserves. What he has accomplished, compared with what he wanted to do, is almost nothing. Impeach him for what? Having a grifter for a son? Appointing Woke people to positions they’re not competent to fill? Using Harris for his scapegoat?
Impeachment? No worries, the republicans will make something up just like the demoncrats did, and the country will pay again. Both parties are as corrupt as can be.
republicans and democrats, same poop, 2 different piles…
though Democrats are the most lopsided thinkers in place, their free everything, open border mentality is anti american as it comes
I will be the first generation to pay health care for illegal aliens…..For that, they all should be lined up for taxpayers to throw rotten tomatoes at…
I readily blame Biden for cynically exploiting race divisions for near term electoral advantage. Turning one group of americans against another group is unforgiveable. Unfortunately, that’s not impeachable.
Well, that is what the corporate masters of both parties would want them to do – keep everyone distracted while the two corporate parties help their masters to loot the hell out of the country.
“Mom and Pop in flyover country” feed you and put gas in your car. Mom and Pop still respect our founders and foundational principles, even if they can’t quote Federalist #10. I’d recommend you abandon the last form of acceptable bigotry against fellow citizens.
All democracies are “populist” by definition. Question is whether the populist in power has a better or worse mix of ideas. Both parties have their serious flaws. My (admittedly partisan) take is that one party supports constitutional principles inconsistently, the other has a growing cancer that rejects them outright. I’m talking about supporting the central premise of western enlightenment: the primacy of the individual and his rights. And, of course, the downstream implications for censorship, freedom of association, limited government, due process and protecting the rights of the accused.
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But once again, they will lose because they didn’t do anything for the average working American, and once again, after they lose, people like HR Clinton, 0-bama and Mish will say that the defeat was because the party ran “too far to the left”. Same as always!
The various factions in the Republican Party at least get what they want – the social conservatives get their abortion restrictions and bans, the libertarians get their tax cuts and deregulation, the neocons get their wars and so on. The progressives in the DONORcrat Party get nothing. Hell, even with a 75% majority in California, the DONORcrat establishment was able to prevent even placing single-payer health insurance for a vote.