The multiple-irony setup is stunning.
A Nationwide Redistricting Battle
NBC News reports Federal Court Blocks Texas Republicans’ Redrawn Congressional Map
A panel of federal judges has barred Texas from using its redrawn congressional map, which Republicans enacted earlier this year in an effort to shore up their narrow House majority in next year’s midterm elections.
The court ordered Texas to use its previous map instead, which was passed in 2021. The ruling, signed by Judge Jeffrey Brown, who was nominated by President Donald Trump, is likely to be appealed.
The likely appeal will go directly to the U.S. Supreme Court, according to the ruling, teeing up a legal fight that could decide control of Congress.
Trump called on Texas Republicans to draw a new map that could result in the party gaining up to five seats, triggering a nationwide redistricting battle across the country.
Texas’ Republican-controlled legislature and Gov. Greg Abbott enacted the new district lines in August, overcoming protests from Democratic lawmakers who fled the state to temporarily block the legislation.
California Proposition 50
In response to Texas gerrymandering, California launched Proposition 50 to do its own redistricting.
Proposition 50 proposes new lines for many of California’s 52 congressional districts, which would negate the five Republican seats drawn by Texas. Under the proposed lines, Democrats could gain up to 5 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. With a majority in the House, Democrats can fight back against Trump and Republicans’ MAGA agenda.
California Redistricting
Proposition 50 passed easily. Cook Political posted an analysis of the change due to prop 50 and the election night wave on November 4.
Cook Political on November 4
A Blue Wave Is Building: What We Learned From Election Night 2025
It’s not 2024 anymore. In fact, Tuesday’s elections showed that the current political environment is more akin to the 2018 cycle, when huge Democratic turnout — spurred by an unpopular President Donald Trump — helped Democrats flip control of the U.S. House.
In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger won the gubernatorial election by 15 points, while in New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill prevailed by 13 points — a nine point and seven point improvement, respectively, over Vice President Kamala Harris’ showing in those states last year.
Democrats’ success in both states was driven by the unpopularity of the president and many of his policies, as well as an overall dissatisfaction with the direction of the country. In both New Jersey and Virginia, more than 60% of voters said they were angry or dissatisfied about “the way things are going in the U.S.,” with Sherrill and Spanberger each capturing more than three-quarters of those dissatisfied voters.
It is telling, for example, that the vote share for both GOP candidates in New Jersey and Virginia basically matched Trump’s approval rating in each state.
[Rest Paywalled]
Cook Political on California Redistricting
California’s Newly Passed Map Spurs 11 Ratings Changes
California voters have passed Proposition 50 by a comfortable margin, codifying a freshly-gerrymandered congressional map for the rest of the decade.
The passage of this new map — which is designed to protect a slew of vulnerable Democrats and will cost Republicans three to five seats in 2026 — is the most consequential development to date in the mid-decade redistricting wars due to the sheer number of seats that it impacts. The outcome of these races in California could ultimately determine which party wins control of the House next November.
As a result of the new district lines, The Cook Political Report is moving 11 ratings, with all but one shifting in Democrats’ direction.
New California Race Ratings Changes
The most dramatic changes to the map are in northern California, where Democrats are now in a strong position to flip the previously red 1st and 3rd Districts. In southern Los Angeles County, the new 41st District should also be an easy pick-up for Democrats.
That leaves four seats at the center of the House battleground: the 13th, 22nd, 45th,
[Rest Paywalled]
Trump Fuming Over Indiana
This is funny. On November 16, NBC News reported Trump blasts Indiana state lawmakers for not pursuing redistricting efforts
President Donald Trump slammed GOP state lawmakers in Indiana on Sunday for not pursuing redistricting efforts and pushed for Republicans who oppose redistricting to lose their seats.
In a post to Truth Social, the president said he was “very disappointed in Indiana State Senate Republicans,” specifically calling out Senate President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray and state Sen. Greg Goode.
“Because of these two politically correct type ‘gentlemen,’ and a few others, they could be depriving Republicans of a Majority in the House, A VERY BIG DEAL!” Trump said in the post.
Indiana is one of the latest states to grapple with redistricting after Texas’ push launched a tit-for-tat mid-decade redistricting battle in state legislatures across the country.
In the post, Trump said that Republicans who vote against redistricting efforts should face primary challenges. He said the Indiana lawmakers should “do their job” or “let’s get them out of office, ASAP.”
OHIO Redistricting
Cook Political reports Ohio’s New Compromise Map Gives Democrats Hope
A surprising twist in Ohio’s redistricting saga has resulted in a new congressional map that’s not nearly as grim for Democrats as they’d feared.
Under the state’s convoluted redistricting law, Ohio is required to redraw its congressional map this year. Ohio Republicans only needed a simple majority in the legislature to pass a new map that would expire after four years — and so initially, Republicans had planned to draw a map that would allow them to easily flip two to three more House seats. (The party already controls 10 of Ohio’s 15 seats.) But Democrats’ efforts to put a legislature-drawn map up for a statewide referendum complicated Republicans’ scheme.
Rather than risk having their map overturned by Ohio voters, Republicans on the redistricting commission offered a deal to Democrats: a map that would put both Democratic Reps. Emilia Sykes (OH-13) and Greg Landsman (OH-01) in purple seats, while making Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur (OH-09) more vulnerable.
Ultimately, this compromise map is not much worse for Democrats than the current one, and all three incumbents could conceivably win reelection next …
[Rest Paywalled]
Other States
NBC: In Kansas, lawmakers this week approved nearly a half-million dollars for a potential special session on redistricting. Republicans there are targeting the district held by Rep. Sharice Davids, Kansas’ lone Democratic representative in Congress. GOP lawmakers have an additional hurdle in Kansas: They would need two-thirds support to circumvent Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly.
Kansas is going nowhere. Illinois and Indiana called truces.
What Has Trump Gained?
Cook political estimates the net at Republicans +3 or +4.
That is from redistricting. It does not factor in a potential Blue Wave that I think we see if there is a recession.
Nor does it factor in the possibility the Texas map is thrown out.
Ironically, Republicans pulled off redistricting stunts not understanding Democrats would follow.
Second they are challenging the California map but forgot to factor in the chance their effort would be challenged.
Assessing the Outcome
The only way Republicans come away with a big win is if Texas gerrymandering sticks and California’s doesn’t.
The Supreme Court may toss them both, or for whatever reason keep one and not the other.
I do not know the odds on any of this. But nothing would surprise me.
Gerrymandering Risk
There is a risk to all of this that Cook Political may or may not have discussed. I don’t know because I don’t read beyond the paywall.
But gerrymandering is not one-way weakening. Lop-sided yes, but generally something is weakened a bit elsewhere to accomplish that.
It is beyond my scope to assess the extent some Texas seats might be impacted. But in a “wave” scenario there could be more upsets.
Personally, I wish this would all just stop. Gerrymandering increases extreme polarization. I am sick of it in Illinois, in California, and in Texas.
Trump started this latest round. He may come to regret it.
For my take on November 4, please see How Bad an Evening Did Republicans Have in Yesterday’s Elections?
MAGA dismissed what I said.
Perhaps Cook Political, paid to get things right and be nonpartisan, may wake Republicans up.
Inflation, Jobs, Recession
In my view, inflation, jobs, and recession will decide the midterms, not gerrymandering.
And the jobs picture looks particularly grim.
Jobs Recap
- ADP: On November 6 I noted Private Employers Added 42,000 Jobs in October, First Increase Since July
- Revelio: On November 7, I noted Revelio’s Realistic Assessment of the US Labor Market and Jobs – Sinking Fast
- Challenger & Gray Layoffs: On November 6, I noted Cost Cutting Hits Jobs. October Layoffs Surge to Highest Level in 20 Years
- Richmond Fed: On November 6 I noted Richmond Fed Survey Shows Small Businesses Impacted More by Tariffs
On November 14, 2025, I noted ADP Pulse of Net Private Job Creation Drops to Negative 11,250 Per Week
Please click on the above link for the latest on jobs.
Anyone who says the economy is on strong footing needs to explain those posts.
Addendum – Closer to a Draw
Yeah i wish every district was purple. Puts the power in the people hands. We have let the politicians make it about my side verses your side. Instead of representing your district and its people Its the republican side verses the dem side. . Comfortable districts lets politicians do what they want. Which tends to be in lobbyist interest.
Both ca and texas are racial gm ed. Because thats the voters color they need to dilute or strengthen. . Think it might be a hard time for the suit in ca it was put to the voters and the train has left the station. Plus newson said from the beginning it was political gm.
Looks like texas wont be able to use the well its to late to do anything about the new map so well use it this time and redraw after the election. That tricks been used in a few southern states for a couple of elections.
Well see how it plays out. Like mish said may make one a bit stronger at the cost of another district. Might be a good thing.
I do not see the next election being close at this point.
Isn’t it almost a tradition by now for the ruling party to lose the House in the midterms? Obama had lost it, I remember, without even stirring the soup much in his first term.
People will be angry about the economy etc. for the foreseeable future – even after the dismantling of the USA into an “ambiguous economic zone” with no borders. Islamists are not exactly “imported compliant pets and fruit pickers” as the Mexicans were for decades.
It’s not a “blue wave” that’s coming. It’s an AOC et al wave with Bernie as decoration. It’s not about policies anymore, it’s about attitude.
Wealth inequality is now higher in Sweden (according to UBS), but people in the US pretend that it’s a “happy country” (as we say “happy hobbit village” and other cartoon concepts that journalists turned into economic indicators).
My groceries have been down since last year by 25-30%, but electricity is up (due to data centers), and most people don’t keep track of itemized grocery prices anyway. So they’re angry.
And AI is destroying jobs left and right, so that’s more anger. The youth wants Mamdanis everywhere now, to tax everyone who has anything, just like they wanted the opposing influencers a few years ago. You think that if AOC et al wins the House, they’ll have reasons to be less angry? Will she stop AI? Will she send more checks to the unemployed taxpayers? Will her policies increase good food production and more energy production, to lower the prices? Who are we kidding?
Best strategy will be to be mobile, adaptable, fluently bilingual, and silent online. Most of the rest will become sitting ducks.
Just to help you out with future comparisons, people look at the ‘happy village’ based upon income inequality because income is what most people use to finance their daily lives.
America’s Gini coefficient is up there with all of South America and southern Africa – what we all aspire to LOL
https://www.statista.com/chart/33270/income-inequality-by-country/
Europe, including Sweden, is the opposite side of that coin. You don’t have to like it (everyone gets their own opinion), but you could at least cite truthful and relevant comparisons before your political rants
Elsewhere in the world, districts are determined by municipal boundaries. Because in democratic countries the politicians represent their district constituency. But in non oligarchic countries like the US, the constituency is elected to represent the politicians.
“…Trump started this latest round. He may come to regret it.”
Trump regret something????? Are you implying that there is any accountability wrt Trump and anything he does?
I doubt he ever really understood what this is about.
I think he regrets his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein
It could be he doesn’t remember it. trump is mentally ill and must be removed.
Chicago / Crook County just got their property tax bill, and look who is doing the hooting –
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=irbT5NfMRCw
Illinois and Cook County are Democratic anyway, even if they had raised them 150% it wouldn’t change election results. If I were Chicago’s Mayor I would increase them 250%, just to prove a point. And let ChatGPT answer to taxpayers’ frustrations.
It’s likely that they both get tossed, as they should be.
I have not heard from my lawyer friend I unlike Tariffs where I can read cases, I have no idea at all.
By the way, after the appeals case, he thought Trump would win. He has changed his mind and thinks Trump loses. Reason ~75% chance Gorsuch goes against Trump.
“likely”? (“as they should be”) Like 51% likely or 90% likely?
When ‘experts’ make their predictions, I like to note their confidence levels. So they can be congratulated later for their excellent prognoses (or not)
Perhaps the tyrant is finally going too far in breaking all of the rules and ignoring many of the laws?
@Tony Have you watched “How to become a Tyrant” on NetFlix? It’s rather informative.
The California vote is only a temporary redistricting and basically hopes for a return to districting sanity. Unless you want the nation to become more polarized people need a legislature that at least somewhat reflects the voters.
I voted for it because it was basically self-defense in that Trump specifically targets any city or state that he doesn’t like. Either by withholding appropriated funds or sending in troops to “protect” federal buildings.
Everyone should support competitive districts because it should result in more compromise. Unfortunately we have gotten to the point in game theory where any compromise is a disadvantage. The only thing that will probably change this is when both sides lose something big,
California’s redistricting was an amendment to the California Constitution passed by voters. It will be much harder to overturn than the one done by the Texas legislature.
Played by their own stupid trickery, this is hilarious!
I wouldn’t put it past the current Supreme Court to toss out CA and allow TX. This is the most nakedly partisan Supreme Court in at least the last 50 years.
What do you mean, Clarence Thomas openly taking bribes is wrong? You must be a radical!
This is because all the Trump-appointed judges in California moved to Austin.
As you said about the economy going South; IMO the decline is accelerating. And Trump’s Tariffs and BS will be tossing and anchor to a drowning man.
SOUTH FOR THE WINTER!
Texas did not ask or involve the voters.
California ran it through a state-wide vote following all proper procedures.
GOP takes the lawLESS route
Dems take the lawful route
I can guess where the CA redistricting ends up, it ends up handing the House to Dems in 2026, as it won’t be tossed in court, due to following the proper protocols. This is what the Rule of Law is all about, and Trump knows nothing of the rule of law.
So are you getting tired of these liberal Trump appointed activist judges derailing the MAGA agenda and following the law?
no, I’m tired of these radical rightwing reactionary judges trying to undo the last 200 years of progress made due to following the laws of this country. The idea of originalism in interpreting the text of the Constitution is absurd. We live in a completely different world than the framers. They laid out their intentions in the Declaration of Independence and it’s clear they were setting up a living breathing situation that would be flexible and adaptable to the changing times. The MAGA agenda is trying to return us to the politics of the late 18th century as if all was cheery and bright at the time.
What bullshit.
A perfect example is the 2nd amendment. At the time anyone living on the frontier (250 miles west of the east coast shore) had to have firearms for protection and hunting for game. A flint lock in expert hands could fire about 3-4 rounds per minute with some close range accuracy. Today anyone can fire 10 rounds in seconds with better accuracy. Today persons are safer and usually don’t hunt for subsistence.
A better second might read:
The 2nd Amendment to the United States Constitution, “A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed,” has been a cornerstone of American law and culture for over two centuries. However, the firearms landscape in the 21st century is vastly different from that of 1776. The development of firearms technology has brought about substantial changes in terms of accuracy, rate of fire, and overall firepower. In this essay, we will explore how the 2nd Amendment should be adapted to address the modern era, striking a balance between preserving individual rights and safeguarding public safety.
Changing Firearms Technology
When the 2nd Amendment was ratified, the primary firearms available were single-shot muskets and flintlock pistols. These weapons were characterized by limited accuracy, slow reloading times, and a low rate of fire. The smoothbore barrels of muskets made them less accurate compared to modern firearms with rifled barrels. The slow reloading process of the time hindered the rate of fire.
In contrast, contemporary firearms are highly accurate due to advancements in rifling technology, optics, and targeting systems. Semi-automatic and automatic firearms can fire multiple rounds in quick succession, significantly increasing the rate of fire. High-capacity magazines further enhance the firepower available to individuals.
Adapting the 2nd Amendment for the 21st Century
To modernize the 2nd Amendment, we must consider several key aspects:
1. Restricting access to certain firearms: One approach could be to restrict the ownership of highly lethal and rapid-firing weapons, such as any firearm that can be fired from ammunition stored in a magazine, in other words any firearms other than single shot firearms which require reloading after each shot, to individuals who have undergone rigorous background checks and demonstrated a legitimate need for such weaponry. This would aim to balance the rights of gun owners with the safety of the general public.
2. Enhanced licensing and training: Requiring comprehensive training and licensing for gun ownership can ensure that individuals are proficient in safe firearm handling and storage. A tiered system of licensing, where individuals can gain access to more powerful firearms as they demonstrate responsible use, could be a potential solution. Also licensing the actual firearm, just like an automobile would track the transfer of any firearm to insure the new owner has the appropriate training and licensing.
3. Mental health and domestic violence checks: Strengthening background checks to include evaluations of mental health and history of domestic violence can help prevent firearms from falling into the wrong hands. This would address a significant concern regarding public safety.
4. Technology-based safety measures: Requiring gun manufacturers to adoption of smart gun technology, which allows only authorized users to discharge a firearm, could enhance safety without infringing upon the right to bear arms. In addition manufacturers should be required to fire every weapon and register the resulting forensic marking with the appropriate federal agencies.
5. Federal regulation and standardization: Implementing consistent federal regulations that provide a framework for state-level firearm laws could streamline the complex and often inconsistent patchwork of state laws, improving accountability and enforcement.
Conclusion
The 2nd Amendment was written at a time when the concept of firearms was vastly different from what it is today. The constitutional framework, however, is flexible enough to adapt to changing circumstances while still preserving fundamental rights. As society grapples with the implications of modern firearms technology, it is imperative to strike a balance between protecting individual rights and safeguarding public safety. The ongoing debate surrounding the 2nd Amendment calls for thoughtful consideration and deliberation, leading to adaptations that acknowledge the realities of the 21st century. By modernizing the 2nd Amendment, we can address the challenges of today while honoring the values and principles that have shaped the United States for over two centuries.
I wouldn’t put it past the current Supreme Court to toss out CA and allow TX. This is the most nakedly partisan Supreme Court in at least the last 50 years.
The grand irony of Texas is that this ruling, if it sticks, might actually help republicans because the way Texas re-districted the areas relied heavily on the Latino vote which recently shifted back to democrats at the last election.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DcKlJVtbimM
The conspiracy theorist in me wonders if the Trump admin whispered into this judges ear to undo the gerrymandering.
Of course, California is nearly guaranteed to get 5 seats now, at least they followed the law and proper process.
2-Star Mishelin award for fast and accurate reporting that will likely trigger the MAGA crowd.
“The grand irony of Texas is that this ruling, if it sticks, might actually help republicans because the way Texas re-districted the areas relied heavily on the Latino vote which recently shifted back to democrats at the last election.”
That is precisely what’s behind the risk idea that I discussed.
And is California 5 or 10? A wave leans to the latter.
As a result of the new district lines, The Cook Political Report is moving 11 ratings, with all but one shifting in Democrats’ direction.
My off the top take is 7-9
You may be right, I am was being conservative on the number. And the way things are deteriorating now, people will be angry this time next year and vote the bums out!
https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/18/business/prices-economy-tariff-small-business
Remember there are still states like nc gming. So if texas is out of the picture maybe it will be more of a wash