Let’s discuss some election benchmarks, posted in advance.
Democrats Went 18 for 18
But in the prediction department …
“Some of these are totally unreasonable and not happening no matter how good of a night Democrats have like gaining 3 seats in the NJ assembly.“
The Meaning of the Democrats’ Victory
Karl Rove discusses The Meaning of the Democrats’ Victory
Tuesday was a very good night for Democrats, but the headlines obscure things that should worry both parties for next year’s midterms.
While Kamala Harris last year eked out only a 5.8-point margin in Virginia, on Tuesday Democrat Abigail Spanberger won the governorship by about 15 points. She flipped seven traditionally GOP counties, and the government shutdown helped her reverse President Trump’s big 2024 gains in Northern Virginia, home to many federal workers.
Ms. Spanberger’s margin was so wide that she dragged Democratic attorney general nominee Jay Jones across the finish line, despite his having fantasized about the murder of a Republican state House speaker. The GOP lost at least 13 of its 48 seats in the 100-member House of Delegates.
Last November, Ms. Harris won New Jersey by 5.4 points. Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill took the governorship by 13. She carried 14 of 21 counties—including all five Mr. Trump flipped in 2024—and she reversed the president’s strong showing in majority-nonwhite counties like Passaic and Hudson. Republicans also lost as many as seven legislative seats, which would put Democrats at a 52-year high. [Note the prediction above on gaining 3 seats.]
Democrats even won in states Mr. Trump carried last year. In Georgia, two GOP Public Service Commission incumbents went down, giving Democrats their first nonfederal statewide victories in nearly 20 years. Gov. Gavin Newsom’s big gerrymandering referendum victory in California offsets Republican redistricting gains in Texas.
While registered Democrats outnumber Republican ones in Pennsylvania by less than 2 points, all three Democratic state supreme court justices won retention by over 22 points.
Most concerning for the GOP, voters’ decisions Tuesday were certainly a result of their disapproval of Mr. Trump and his policies. The RealClearPolitics average that day had him at 43.4% approve, 54.4% disapprove. He has even worse numbers on the economy, foreign policy and inflation.
Then there’s the Big Apple. It now has a Democratic Socialist mayor. Zohran Mamdani beat former Gov. Andrew Cuomo by 8.8 points. But Mr. Mamdani—the Democratic nominee—won barely half the voters in a three-way race, 50.4% to be precise. That’s unimpressive in a city where 65% of registered voters are Democrats and only 11% registered Republicans.
Mr. Mamdani won because he talked about New Yorkers’ greatest worry: Can I afford to live in this city? Exit polls suggest voters suspect his answers won’t work, but at least he understood their challenges.
Gotham’s new socialist mayor is a problem for Democrats. Republicans will make him the face of the Democratic Party nationally. Mr. Mamdani’s free-everything proposals thrill left-wingers, but middle America will reject his socialist nostrums and disdain for Israel. It was center-leaning messaging that got Democrats victories in New Jersey and Virginia Tuesday. If Mr. Mamdani dominates the news, Democrats miles away from Manhattan will have to separate themselves from him and his ideology.
It’s time for both parties to recalibrate. Democrats should head to the center. Republicans must offer voters constructive conservative answers to the nation’s challenges or Tuesday will have been a taste of what the GOP will suffer next November. Changing tone and approach are never easy, but both parties must do it.
Rove Is Spot On
That was a fair and balanced assessment by Rove. Fair assessments are a rarity these days. Trump and the Progressives want you to choose between extremes.
Tariffs are not working. The labor market is not good. And inflation is a huge problem.
All of that shows up in the polls.
Trump’s Net Approval Rating
Hoot of the Day Blame Game
Last night, I commented “My hoot of the day is Trump blames the government shutdown for the defeats.“
For discussion please see Democrats Win NYC Mayoral Race, and New Jersey and Virginia Governorships
Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger won her race in Virginia in a rout over GOP Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.
In New Jersey, some polls predicted a close contest, but Democratic Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill won with ease.
Question of the Day
Q: If Trump blames the shutdown, then wasn’t the shutdown was a smart move by the Democrats?
A: Obviously. But this is Trumperland where such contradictions and logic don’t exist.Ironies Abound
Yesterday, CBS News reported Trump says government shutdown ends when Democrats give in: “If they don’t vote, that’s their problem”
Q: Excuse me for asking, but whose problem is it today?
A: See above Trumpian blame.
Wait Till Next Year
Meanwhile, please note Trump Adopts Chicago Cubs’ Perpetual Message, “Wait Till Next Year”
“One Big Beautiful Bill” did not resonate. Trump opts for “Wait Till 2026”.
Observation of the Day
Next year won’t happen if Republicans lose the House in the midterms based on Trump’s results on inflation, tariffs, and jobs today.
At a minimum, it’s time for a policy change on tariffs.
AI may or may not do wonders eventually but voters are concerned about jobs and inflation now.
The Midterms will not be decided on whether one preferred Trump over Harris, they will be decided on jobs, inflation, housing, and gerrymandering.
All but gerrymandering look poor for Republicans.
Reader: Taco wasn’t on the ballot. When he is gone who will the Democrats be blaming everything on? Is Gavin Newsome or Kamala Harris really a better option than Trump?
Mish: Two possibilities
The governors of New Jersey and Virginia
Right now, I think either would beat Trump if Trump could run again.
I love your analyses and your page is one of my first stops every morning. But respectfully, Trump absolutely was on the ballot. All the races were about him.
If the midterms were held today, the GOP would lose the House handily, along with a slew of governorships. The commenters here explain why: lots of ppl who hoped for the best with DJT, and now despise everything about him. They stayed home on Tuesday, and will again, maybe forever. I know I will.
Clear statistical proof that the 2024 elections were rigged.
Figuring out what is happening.
2017 to 2020 — Republican.
2021 to 2024 — Democratic.
2025 to 2029 — Republican.
Now you can guess who might win the 2029 election.
These are not the faults of the parties but the effects of the general decline of Western society.
Everything is in disarray and searching for righteousness.
No question it was bad. Then again, he’s a lame duck president. People who despise Trump need to get a job, a life and a brain. That level of hatred is blocking your brain from working correctly and seeing things objectively, which explains why you hate him in the first place.
No it’s not.
I turned from liking Trump to despising him within a few months. I knew it was over when he threw DOGE under the bus and jacked up military spending. The tariff war, bombing Iran, threatening Venezuela, and giving Israel his undying love while they destroy Gaza have sealed the deal. He is now worse than Obama for reneging on promises and hopes, and that was a mighty bar to overcome.
That you expected none of that is really shocking.
Economic inequality in Trump’s America is the worst in history, even outstripping the gilded age. His great Gatsby Halloween party and the entire Musk-doge fiasco is evidence that this is entirely intentional. This isn’t playing well with the working classes. Now poor people are literally going hungry and medical bankruptcies are next up to bat.
But the Republican party has never offered any kind of plan or solution to deal with these problems. So far they have been doing the exact opposite, like cutting taxes on the wealthy and adding tariffs as a tax on us. I don’t see things ending well for them.
Trump is doing more to sell socialism than Bernie or AOC or Mamdani ever could.
The upper middle class suffer from a $900,000 outpatient heart surgery and a $90,000 hip replacement. The poor get it for free. Tylenol doesn’t cause autism. The lack of breast feeding cause autism, triggered by Tylenol. Preventive medicine is better and cheaper
I see you’re in the bag for the rich. How sad
Autism is purely a genetic issue which is why it often runs in families. It sits on a set of genes that can also express ADHD, OCD, Anxiety disorder and Schizophrenia and combinations of each.
It’s not just the upper middle class, all of the middle class and even the working class without dependents would have to pay full price for medical procedures. That’s why I say they should have the deepest animosity towards the poor who get everything for free with Medicaid. The group I have compassion for are the low income workers who are just above the line to get all the free stuff.
All too many poor people can’t figure out how to vote in their best interests. The real honeypot for the GOP
Agree but with Trump’s actions best interests seem impossible.
Q: Which party offers them?
A: Libertarians
The most worthless political group in the mix.
That is correct, the Libertarians as a political group are worthless. I attended a state level Libertarian meeting back in my younger days and quickly decided that this group could not agree on anything and had zero hope of winning anything significant.
The most valuable group in the mix.
Unless you value dishonesty, lies, corruption, warmongering, inflation, etc.
That’s a pleasant thought but you can’t honestly believe it… Libertarians are vulnerable to all the same foibles as their fellow men! The only way you can make the argument with a straight face is because they’re not really much of a group at all without an effectual political organization, and haven’t as a group had any chance to prove themselves (as they inevitably would) to be as fallible as any other political group!
Those common foibles are what make Trump’s trampling of norms and callous disregard for the law, and the failure of the other branches of government to respond in any kind of meaningful form or timeframe, to be such an absolute disaster. Without checks and balances our democracy is failed.
It’s absolutely fair to debate the value of different ideologies & policies… But people are people.
Depends on which city and state you reside in. And don’t tell me blue cities and states are what’s best for poor people. 1/3 of LA county households are on SNAP. Something is terribly broken and there is no Republican in CA to blame.
People who are poor, especially with children or elderly people in the house, should be on the good for American farmers and ranchers and food security SNAP program.
Google AI says your stat is bullshit…
If the mag7 selling accelerate it means a lower SPX. It doesn’t mean recession. In Nov 2 2027 SPX might be lower, but the economy can be stronger. Much stronger. In Nov 2027 the gaussian center will expand. Bernie & AOC to the left fringes ==> in Jan 20 2028 a Trump clone will enter the white house. Mamdani in NYC, Josh Shapiro to the white house.
UPS halted shipping after Louisville crash.
IMHO, Trump calling half the country “radical leftist liberal lunatics” really doesn’t help. Democrats have outnumbered Republicans in this country since FDR. The President needs a strong majority to support his policies and has now ensured that more than half the country will never vote Republican again. I’m sure it plays great in the trailer park, and keeps the cowardly GOP Senators and Reps in line, but long term, its a stupid as you can get.
Not to mention continuing to let inflation rage, deficits explode, bombing foreign countries, having the brown shirts storming our cities, destroying parts of the White House, and cutting off food and health insurance for millions isn’t a great look.
It’s a distraction while the wealthy loot our country.
Well the rich are just beating us on MERIT aren’t they? Isn’t that why we need such free markets, so the rich can finish the job? Seriously ask yourself.
I thought an interesting stat that I saw was how younger women overwhelmingly voted blue in the 3 big races (NYC mayor and the 2 Governors). While loads of Trump supporters love his tough guy, misogynistic, racist schtick, it seems to have rubbed these young women the wrong way, and they made their voices heard. It that is the case with woman as a whole, Trump and his supporters better look out.
Repeating people are Nazis when they disagree that we shouldn’t have an open border policy is how young women got hoodwinked. The bigots are usually the ones shouting ‘bigot’. Sadly.
Trump had a bad night. He got used to it. He has only three years to accomplish his plan: reduce Chinese import, cut the gov visceral fat, onshore, beef up defense and stop the invasion. The Avraham accord was an engagement party between Israel and MBS. Trump was the matchmaker. Hamas ruined this party, but only temporarily. Within a few years Israel and the Arab states will be engaged like a family. Trump was a matchmaker with other counties ==> from volatility to decades of global tranquility. Trump’s chromosomes protect us from dementia and chronic diseases. The boomers, in their twenties, were hippies. The zoomers and millennials are more conservative and religious. Yesterday voters proved it: the center is gaussian distribution.
Trump only has one more year. After the Mid-Terms the Dems will have full control of Congress and there will be enough GOPs in the Senate that have threatend with being Primeried that getting a 2/3 vote in the Senate will happen and Trump will be gone.
i love when people talk out of their hind quarters on political prognostications. lol, get a life.
An absolutely wonderful pipe dream. Wonderful.
Let’s be realistic. Dems may take the House.
Unlikely to take the Senate.
You are delusional if you think foreign policy will carry the day.
And there is no “invasion” which make you a fool.
What do you call millions of undocumented immigrants?
I do think that it all comes down to economics. We are back in Portugal and ALL that we are hearing, from those we meet on the streets: HOUSING affordability is number one. Wages NEVER keep up with price increases. Three years ago a “Prato do Dia” (plate of the day) in small back-street “Tascas” were around 4-6 euros EACH which included sides, bread, olives and a liter of Vihno. NOW: 12 euros! EACH.
That’s no problem for us. I am nearer to death now at my age.
But, for Local working stiffs, who like a meal out at Lunch with their old pals: it is a travesty for them. Life is no longer wonderful for the Local Portuguese.
It is the same at home in the USA.
It comes down to math. Always has, always will.
The Pareto principle is an illustration of a “power law” relationship, which also occurs in phenomena such as bush fires and earthquakes.[9]Benoit Mandelbrot offered an explanation for this pattern in the field of economics and social science based on income dynamics in population. According to his reasoning, above a certain minimum income threshold, the probability of an individual’s income increasing or decreasing by a fixed proportion (e.g., doubling) remains constant across all income levels. As a consequence, the ratio of individuals earning a given income x to those earning half that amount x/2 remains the same, regardless of the absolute value of x. This scale-invariant property is a defining feature of power-law distributions. Because it is self-similar over a wide range of magnitudes, it produces outcomes completely different from Normal or Gaussian distribution phenomena.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle
I didn’t know Biden was ever President of Portugal!
All head honchos in the West are Biden.
Biden was the first college in his family to go to the moon.
Escape Portugal. U have a target on your back. The bad guys will kidnap u for ransom. They will empty your estate.
A thirdness greater oneness resolution of seeming unresolvable opposites will benefit everyone and enable the changes that both parties hold most dear. That thirdness is my new monetary paradigm policy of a 50% Discount/Rebate at retail sale because it doubles everyone’s purchasing power (democratic wet dream) while simultaneously doubles potential demand for every enterpise’s goods and services (republican wet dream), transforms inflation into beneficial deflation (libertarian wet dream).
To ignore or let pre-conceived orthodoxies prevent you from seeing these policy effects traps you in the unresolving dualities of capitalism vs socialism and democrat vs republican instead of the thirness greater oneness which has historically always been the signature of paradigm change.
Democrats won in Democrat strongholds. Not really a story unless one was actually expecting MAGA to lure disenchanted Dems into their fold and flip these places for good.
Still, go locally, and things get ugly. In my town of Branford CT, a wealthy Democrat town on the shoreline, middle-road Republicans have dominated the town government for 12 years straight. Yesterday, it was a wholesale massacre. The Dems took everything from First Selectman to the non-existent Constables. Only two Republicans on the Representative Town Meeting got more votes than their Democrat challengers in any of the seven districts.
I wonder what it looked like in other towns…
I think the story was not that Democrats won, but, the landslide numbers that they won by. 15 point differentials are not very common these days.
Yes
El Capitan is of course correct.
And VeldesX cannot even read.
Democrats won in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Texas.
he’s suffering the consequences of his actions which, amazingly, he apparently had no inkling of what was coming
he’s in a race with time now, look to the path Yeltsin took–his health and the mid-terms are pressing issues for him
he has a very limited path to remaking the world to his plutocratic dream except by harsher and harsher means and throwing more to the tech people who are feeding him cash and ego-boosts
the in-people are preparing for the transition day
after all, how many presidential vehicle motorcades have had a black painted-out ambulance in the line-up
lol, this is what hatred does to people’s minds. Very sad.
Big famous cities are not affordable by single manicurists or amateur graphic artists, anywhere in the world. If you look at the jobs of all those interviewed in documentaries or casual clips, they should hardly afford Wichita, let alone New York City.
Yet, a change in culture (the new culture of “I deserve, regardless“) will cause a new round of federal spending just to support unreasonable demands, while neglecting the reasonable ones. Squeaky wheel gets the grease. Trump is making the same mistake with Israel, under the indirect guidance of narrow-minded “YouTube personalities”.
But despite that, the new left wants war, regardless of election outcome. They want temporary chaos, to then appear as the “normalizers”. I’ve lived it 1.5 times in my life, I know how to avoid at least the worst of it. What will you do when the borders open up wide, DEI becomes a set of mandatory regulations, land ownership follows the British Columbia paradigm outside big cities, and energy prices go up to EU levels? Are you going to call it “we’re back to sanity”?
The voters aren’t buying what you’re selling. It’s that simple. Election over, nothing you can do about it but whine, case closed.
The YouTube video of three New York party girls celebrating “sharia law is coming” and the “upcoming brotherly caliphate” told me what voters are buying. In the beginning I thought it was AI or satire.
Personally I shouldn’t care – a dark skinned middle-aged man with near-Arabic characteristics like me, is like authority in Islam. I do not believe that America has an Islamic future despite the 5:00 am megaphones in Dearborn MI (and being a dual citizen I don’t care that much), but what young NY voters actually bought, gave me an indication of their mindset.
Case closed, indeed, you’re right.
It’s so dumb to get hung up on a YouTube video of “three new York party girls” and try to make it into some kind of political trend… So dumb on so many levels! And then to actually type all that out on a blog, and still not realize how dumb it sounds! Amazing.
Change “Socialism” (the word itself) to “Statism”, and the public sentiment will change overnight. Socialism has been sold as “social life and partying”, and Islam has been sold as a cool fashion trend. That’s how leftists voted for the Ayatollah in Iran (affordable housing, free stuff). I’m not saying this is the future of the USA, but I’m emphasizing how a simple linguistic trick motivates useful idiots. If a manicurist can find good affordable housing in New York without roommates, just imagine the insane demand that will follow from all over the country. Is the phase “demand will skyrocket prices” good enough for this blog?
You are all so focused on seeing Republicans losing, that even simple economics don’t matter anymore. The non-ID voters spoke, but the market will speak too. Mandmani didn’t shake hands with Cuomo or Trump, he shook hands with Alex Soros.
Good luck.
To your point, it’s really not that hard to manipulate people when they’re already buying into narcissistic lifestyle choices and luxury beliefs that they don’t understand.
These people are not deep thinkers.
Current rent stabilized apartment rent will be frozen for a few years.
Bus rides will be free.
Childcare will be free.
These things will help all of the working class, regardless of income.
Assuming that rent stabilized apartments are automatically occupied by the working class. I don’t see too many bricklayers walking down West End Avenue.
The NYC Karens – in between their shopping and buying organic lattes @ $10/cup – believe Sharia law has their best interests at heart.
The stupidity is breathtaking but not surprising. These are the same narcissists that can’t not take selfies in front of mirrors. They don’t live in the real world.
Bad night for MAGA outstanding night for America. Today the sunrise looks a little brighter. But there is a long way to go. Democratic winners must now lead and prove they have some answers that work.
Has Gavin started doing his “It’s Morning in America” commercials?
Rove:
Changing tone and approach are never easy, but both parties must do it.
Trump change tone and approach? Surely Rove is kidding.
Describing Rove as fair minded is like describing a serial killer as a little off.
ha ha ha. LOL at mish saying that about Rove. in 20 years he’ll say Trump is fair minded. Rove is a war criminal.
“How Bad an Evening Did Republicans Have in Yesterday’s Elections?“
The answer is pretty bad. To me, the most telling example has to be the election of Jay Jones for Virginia attorney general despite absolutely toxic text messages he sent a couple years ago about murdering Republican state delegates – which was revealed during the campaign and caused a huge stir, and despite his Republican opponent having been a generally well-liked attorney general.
It’s hard to care much about that when you have the very real scenes of brown shirts pulling families apart in US cities. One is hot air and the other is violent actions.
This is so sad you believe what you wrote. The manipulation is breathtaking to realize its scope. Thanks for helping me see how deep its gotten.
No worries…It was just locker room talk.
It’s sad to see our presidents win and promptly abuse their power to everyone’s loss, Trump being the latest and worst example.
The tariffs if applied to strategic industries and well planned a win. In practice looks more like a mafioso shakedown killing the economy along the way alienating our best allies and giving our biggest competitors a boost.
Closing the border a win. Sending ICE out to arrest working folks with brown skin en mass using gestapo tactics in large blue cities is a great way to turn an electorate with values largely aligned with Republicans against you. Lots and lots of legal residents with brown skin have been detained using harsh tactics and released. Here in LA I personally saw hispanic voters in long lines after the polls had closed 9:15 pm waiting to vote against Trump yesterday. I personally know where lots of criminal illegals are operating and there has been zero federal enforcement against them. It’s well known but local law enforcement doesn’t have the resources to stamp them out. Doing federal enforcement against criminal illegals would have been a win.
Foreign policy could have been a win. The electorate want us out of foreign wars. Ukraine; US has a lousy negotiating position thank you Biden. Its a lost cause unless we want to do nuclear Armageddon over it.
Israel: The right wing in Israel are out of control and Trump is behaving like Israel has dirt on him. It could have been a win but Trump foolishly greenlighted the Iran sneak attack that spectacularly backfired showing how weak US and Israel’s defensive missiles are against a sustained volume missile and drone attack. Israel is regularly breaking the Gaza ceasefire continuing with their genocide of Palestinians with no repercussions further angering the younger electorate here and further solidifying Israel as a pariah state and US welfare case.
Venezuela: Trump has a great opportunity to do a deal with Venezuela for oil and gas. Instead if he invades the northern part of S. America cocaine production will soar, we’ll have a huge wave of refugees heading north again, and the whole area will become further destabilized.
A course correction is obviously needed….if the administration doubles down on these failed policies it will be a Republican bloodbath in the 2026 midterms.
Instead of assassinating Maduro, he should assassinate Lindsey Graham.
He should hang himself and join his best buddy Epstein in hell.
People who voted for Trump and expected Trump not to act like Trump are fools. The joke is on them.
And Biden? And Obama? And Bush?
Yeah, just because we’re total losers doesn’t mean the leftist liberal lunatics aren’t too!
I have a different voting philosophy, generally I think it does not matters as much who you vote for as it does putting pressure on incumbents to do the right thing
Did you write this during sixth grade recess?
Pressure on trump to do the right thing, hilarious
I’m no longer surprised at the insanity of the TDS sufferers. You guys are lost. You knew Republicans were lost when they said the crazy nonsense about O’bama. You’re doing the same thing they did.
Hopefully you’ll come to your senses and realize how badly you’ve been bamboozled.
Republicans won’t survive the trump presidency. They’ve jettisoned all their supposed “conservative” principles and treat that orange buffoon like he’s king.
Rove is wrong that Mamdani’s “disdain for Israel” will hurt Dems in “Middle America”. People have Israel fatigue, and young voters especially have no great attachment to Israel. That’s true even of many young Jews. Trump’s obeisance to Netanyahu has dampened support for republicans among young heretofore conservative voters. I also doubt that young voters will be repulsed by Mamdani’s socialism. If something labeled “socialism” makes things better, that’s fine. What passes for capitalism in this country has brought unaffordable health insurance, unaffordable higher education and unaffordable everything – including food.
Yep. Capitalism has not been kind to those under 40. They’re ready for something else.
Trump may become the face of economic discontent, a year after such worries helped him win big
As a generally conservative guy, I hate to say it, but Republicans are DOOMED in 2026 and 2028. They just don’t realize it (yet). Much of the newly-acquired young vote will be absent thanks to the leadership’s now-intolerable allegiance to Israel. Not a single person under 35 believes the official Kirk narrative, and Nick Fuentes is picking up steam very rapidly. So the Republicans will be splintered for a good decade imo. On the bright side, the rising communists may end up splintering the Democrats too (at least I hope they do).
Fuentes has been picking up steam since 2020. About ~ 10 years ago I happened to be at a home high school football game where he was leading their band. I had no idea who he was at the time. He was way more popular with the fans than the football team / players.
The republicans are doomed but Israel is a minor issue. What will get them are the insane economic policies being implemented by the current administration.
If you think Israel is a minor issue you are about to be surprised.
By what, the election in NYC? It was a minor issue. Pocketbook issues will decide 2026 and Republicans plan is “make things worse for the working classes.”
I thought Kirk was bringing young people into the Republican fold. I’ve not paid any attention to Fuentes.
There are two distinct Republican folds now, and they are incompatible. I’m predicting an advantage for Democrats because of this new schism.
When there were billions of hippies, there were also large numbers of young bow-tie Republicans. W. Bush was an example. On college campuses they had their deferments hidden in their wallets and rallied for the Vietnam War. They’re sort of like a perpetual autoimmune disease in the body politic.
Some of them had heel spurs.
Epstein didn’t ill himself.
Mish : I have a very different take on all this. First off Virginia has lots of Government Workers and they vote Democrat. New Jersey is a very blue state , and that’s no surprise. One thing both new Democrat Governors have is they worked for the CIA . In the 2024 Michigan Senate election ( Slokin Won ) also worked for the CIA . See any patterns there ??? And finally NYC election was no surprise. I believe if the economy is much better by next summer then GOP could do much better , although historic trends of the past have the party in power lose congress. I fear when the Democrats get back in they will repeat the impeachment BS , instead of improving economic conditions. I don’t trust the Democrats at all , and at least the GOP has attempted to reign in the spending. Either way Inflation is gonna re-appear
If inflation is such a huge problem then why is the federal reserve cutting rate. 25 and another . 25 at December meeting? The CPI is just under 3% and core just over 3%
Politics as usual. The Fed cut rates under pressure from Trump so that they interest payment on the debt would be reduced. Otherwise, there was no justification whatsoever to lower the rate.
And the inflation rate of 3%? In 1987 & 1988 inflation was near 4%, I don’t remember people saying what a huge problem inflation was then
Do you actually believe the inflation rate is 3%? Do you still believe in witches or Santa Clause or the Easter bunny?
I remember that I was working in Corporate America at that time and yearly cost of living adjustiments were a automatic item.
Ever hear of stagflation?
Because their peers are investors and the wealthy, not working class people. They’re protecting the markets.
Mish doesn’t look at counties, especially in NoVa.
Mike Johnson: “If we lose the majority… They will try to end the Trump administration. He won’t have 4 years. He’ll have only 2, because they will move to impeach him, probably on the first day of the new Congress in January 2027 and try to systematically unwind all the important reforms that we’ve done.”
He actually sounds like he’s giving America a playbook on how to restore sanity to America and get rid of Trump. Lol.
California’s Prop 50 means no more repub districts in California forever. Greg Abbott says he will tax New Yorkers moving to Texas. Tax away Greg, they’ll still vote democratic anyway.
Anyone yet not seeing the writing on the wall? Where is BenW and TexasTim these days? Lol.
If California gerrymanders its districts even more than they are now, SCOTUS could hammer them on equal protection grounds. Republicans usually get at least 35% of the vote but only get 17% of California’s House delegation. They might not get away with making it worse.
Would the same apply to Tx?
Yes
Well it won’t apply to either because the Supreme Court will look away.
Has the supreme court ever reversed a decision that was voted on via public ballot?
Yes, probably the most well-known in recent years was California’s Prop 8, a California initiative banning gay marriage.
<<restore sanity to America >>
By “sanity” you mean wide open borders, DEI, high taxes, high energy prices, transgenderism in schools, hate speech laws, uncontrolled shoplifting, abolishing natural gas while increasing electricity prices, and making electric cars mandatory even in the Midwest?
And what do you offer in return? The most boring and dangerous cities, the worst food, and the most unpleasant family & dating culture in the West?
Carefully re-read your list of grievances and ask yourself if Trump has really solved any of it. Yeah, you could argue Trump has put in place some temporary measures to slow or stop some things but it was always going to be transitory. Don’t take my word for it, take yours, you’re already complaining about what’s coming because you know I’m right and you know it’s going to happen as soon as dems sweep the midterms and presidency in 2028.
You are terrified because you know it’s coming so how did Trump fix anything? If Trump hadn’t done such a horrible job, dems wouldn’t have swept elections. Case closed.
Borders were never wide open, and Biden sent more illegals home in his last year then Trump has. DEI is still a very popular program in most large corporations because it increases sales and reduces staff turnover. Energy prices aren’t high. Transgenders will always be with us, even in schools. There is nothing you can do about that. Hate speech laws still exist nearly everywhere. Uncontrolled shoplifting is a private sector issue. Put more security in stores. Nobody ever called for abolishing natural gas. Nobody ever tried to pass a law making EVs mandatory. Where the hell do you get your information?
Thanks for the call out. So the Dems won in all the major races they were expected to win. What’s the big deal with this? Any red blooded MAGA like myself was jumping for joy that Mamdani won. His election will only hasten the demise of NYC. Good riddance & I’m looking forward to the Trump v Mamdani fireworks. And the best part is that Mamdani will have a solid 9 months or so to cockup NYC before the midterms.
The #1 issue going into the midterms will be the economy. As such, this will come down to jobs, inflation & tariffs. All three of these metrics will either break for or against Trump. Trump does have the tax cuts that will help jolt the economy. Inflation is not going to run much hotter than what it is now.
SCOTUS will have a say in how Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are handled, and we’ll certainly know by early next year if there will be any escalation to inflation that’s due to tariffs. Bessent has already said that some of these reciprocal tariffs can be handled through existing Acts.
Will the stock market see a major pull back, and if so will the overhyped AI rally be the cause? Nobody knows. Time will tell. My hope is that it still has legs through next year. What happens to interest rates & housing once Powell is replaced?
Finally, Trump needs to put together a comprehensive immigration reform strategy that links border enforcement, deportations, legal immigration & the looming robotics-based job cuts together. While AI is more of a white-collar job killer, robotics will be focused on lots of main street jobs. He needs to put corporate America on notice that he’s watching the AI / robotics employment disruptions closely and that they have to get on-board with America first, worker first nowadays. We probably can’t stop AI / robotics, but we can slow it down enough that its impact is spread over a longer period of time.
What a silly statement, not by MPO45 but by Mike Johnson.
Without the Senate there is no chance of undoing or doing anything.
Even then Trump would veto it.
But yes we could see a third Trump impeachment.
I’m back!
I was offshore for 12 days on a pipe laying boat for work (sea trials of new equipment).
Essentially no internet other than email. Was refreshing actually to be away from the 24×7 news cycle and just be working or talking to crew members (mostly UK/Norwegians).
Well jump in and give these Trump haters solid alternate opinions. They need to hear some good advice.
There is a difference between disliking Trump and disliking Trump policies.
Might be the first thing Mike Johnson is correct about in his life. Quit now Johnson, get a divorce and enjoy the life you really want.
he’s a total closet / repressed homosexual.
What is good economic policy?
What is good politico-economic policy?
The pie is still in our sky. … Z. Mamdani and others like him promise to our public.
… as opposed to Britain where every politician is Soupy Sales getting smashed in the face with the nation’s pies.
Perhaps this butt kicking “might” encourage taco to at least behave more like a human being.
Taco wasn’t on the ballot. When he is gone who will the Democrats be blaming everything on? Is Gavin Newsome or Kamala Harris really a better option than Trump?
Ever since big money took over the political process, the voters get to choose between shit sandwiches at each election. As long as this continues we will always have a ready scapegoat.
Corporations are people, and money is speech.
And the word for that is bribery and extortion.
Don’t be stupid corporations are not people, they have no soul.
Dems have a great shot at the White House in 2028 – as long as they don’t nominate that vampire or that idiot. Don’t they have a moderate, sensible governor somewhere? I know – they could never get the nomination.
Yes they do. Governor Newsom. Very Ronald Reagan like (see the hair).
Excellent question.
Taco wasn’t on the ballot. When he is gone who will the Democrats be blaming everything on? Is Gavin Newsome or Kamala Harris really a better option than Trump?
Two possibilities
The governors of New Jersey and Virginia
Right now, I think either would beat Trump if Trump could run again.
Clearly, last night showed that the free sh_t army is alive and well.
It also shows ar least in NYC that Gen Z and the Alphas are even further left than the millennials. Of course many gen z don’t even know how to be an adult without Mommy and Daddy supporting them until they’re in their 30s and of course the largest percentage of young people are now non white and or foreign and usually vote Democrat across the board
Yep, the nonwhite – foreigners outnumber the old white males. You left out the women, who vote Democrat, too.
Agreed. And now we’ll have Trump facing off against socialist twin. I’m looking forward to projections on how much all this free stuff is going to cost the taxpayers of NYC, especially the rich. There will be no housing recession is the areas outside of NYC that all the rich will that live in town will start to flock to.
However, Trump will have to find the middle ground on policies & messaging as AI & robotics really start to have obvious employment effects during his final three years. I don’t think this will grow to a critical level before the mid-terms, but he’ll have to start talking about policies in advance.
You mean Wall St., large corporations and the Pentagon?
My apologies for this repeat. Mike Johnson is fielding a once in a lifetime pyrrhic victory for the GOP, which hurts me as a registered republican. Consider last night’s bloodbath as a real time mandate on his messaging. Wake up, Mike, this just. isn’t working. The Dems aren’t asking for universal health care; just a continuation of current credits for US citizens, chump change (for a negotiated few years) and as MTG knows, a vote winner. Thirty-five days ago, Mike could have started his negotiations from an extreme position of no medicaid, no EMTALA coverage, and no snap benefits for all immigrants with asylum status or less … with an agreement made 34 days ago. Win win.This has to be one of the stupidest political blunders of all time. Trump needs to fire the guy and get somewhat with a little political savvy.
So far Trump has screwed just about every American.
Farmers – Screwed.
Ranchers – Screwed.
Small business owners – Screwed.
Large business owners – Screwed.
Tech Bros – Screwed.
Gov workers – Screwed.
Regular employees – Screwed.
SNAP people – Screwed.
Medicaid people – Screwed.
Medicare / Social Security people – Screwed.
Anyone with health insurance – Screwed.
The latest are the airport people not getting paid and airlines shutting down capacity. That will do wonders for the economy. And it wont end there, there is plenty of more stupidity coming from Trump and repubs soon enough.
But go ahead and keep doubling down repubs, midterms are a year away.
How bad can this get? How will we know when it’s hit bottom? Headlines like: AOC-backed Democrats hold wide leads in polls for all 5 of the new so-called Republican districts in Texas.
3 Nov 2026 … less than a year … Apparently according to a Punchbowl reporter, the president told the senators at the morning breakfast that the shutdown was unfavorable for party candidates and encouraged the senators to end it … by voting to end the filibuster – (of course that senate vote would be a losing >61 to <39 proposition). This was nearly at the same time Mike was spouting off to reporters how well the republicans looked to voters and how optimistic he was for the midterms. Maybe if his colleagues were in town, they might give him a reality check.
It looks to me like Johnson is following instructions from Trump.
Many people are pretty well tapped out, and such a large increase in health insurance costs is just not possible at this time. A graduated plan of increases that people can prepare for would be much better.
How about we join the rest of the civilized world and implement universal healthcare.
Killing off the insurance companies isn’t going to happen in the USofA.
The ACA shored up and increased profits for the insurance cos. Now the insurance cos are greedy.
If you add up all of the ACA payments, insurance deductibles, and company premiums, Medicaid, Medicare, I bet it would cost less to have Universal Free Healthcare.
Perhaps stopping the Epstein vote is more important to the Trumpers than many perceive?