The Census Department New Residential Construction Report shows housing starts fell 8.7% in February 2019.
Housing Starts
Privately‐owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,162,000. This is 8.7 percent below the revised January estimate of 1,273,000 and is 9.9 percent below the February 2018 rate of 1,290,000. Single‐family housing starts in February were at a rate of 805,000; this is 17.0 percent below the revised January figure of 970,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 352,000.
Housing Completions
Privately‐owned housing completions in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,303,000. This is 4.5 percent above the revised January estimate of 1,247,000 and is 1.1 percent above the February 2018 rate of 1,289,000. Single‐family housing completions in February were at a rate of 816,000; this is 10.0 percent below the revised January rate of 907,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 473,000.
Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,296,000. This is 1.6 percent below the revised January rate of 1,317,000 and is 2.0 percent below the February 2018 rate of 1,323,000. Single‐family authorizations in February were at a rate of 821,000; this is 0.0 percent below the revised January figure of 821,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 439,000 in February.
Total Starts
- US Total: 1,162,000
- Northeast: 98,000 -29.5%
- Midwest: 161,000 +26.8%
- South: 663,000 -6.8%
- West: 240,000 -18.9%
Single-Family Starts
- US: 805,000 -17.0%
- Northeast: 47,000 -42.0%
- Midwest: 110,000 -8.3%
- South: 478,000 -12.1%
- West: 170,000 -24.4%
Year-Over-Year
- Total starts are down 9.9%
- Single-Family starts are down 10.6%
These are terrible numbers.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
What does slower real-estate market mean practically?
Less supply?
Less demand?
How is it going to impact prices?
Just sold my big house. Now i see the floodimg destroying 6 billion bushels of corn. Considering the crops will be planted late if at all this year add another 5 billion bushels lost. If food goes up substantially it is game over for the economy. With a Grand Solar minimum in play expect more crop loses.
Wonder how much the new tax laws are effecting this. Less of an incentive to buy in an expensive part of the country.
Yep, this was the first year in as long as I can remember where it made no difference on my Fed taxes that I have a mortgage. I would think these changes would not have much immediate effect on housing demand (versus higher interest rates), but it will have some effect in the coming years.
“Da ship be sinkin.”
I’m seeing more housing supply (existing) coming in at the lower end. (houses of 1000+ sq ft, no mobile homes, $50,000 or under)
PA – Feb 2019 – 1585 – Mar 2019 – 1957 – change – +23.5%
MI – Feb 2019 – 1521 – Mar 2019 – 1743 – change +14.6%
DE – Feb 2019 – 22 Mar 2019 – 73 – change +231.8%
OR – Feb 2019 – 7 Mar 2019 – 22 – change +185.7%
MD – Feb 2019 – 166 Mar 2019 – 375 – change +125.9%
On the other hand, HI went from 1 to 0 – change -100.0%
Still, GDPNow inched up after the report.
Inch ? 0.1% is more like a centimeter. Which is noise or error.
That’s about $20,000,000,000 more economic activity than the previous estimate. The point is, the housing starts report did not subtract from the estimate.
I’m beginning to think that Chinese capital flight might be the simplest explanation as to why housing prices haven’t fallen nearly enough to reflect the real post-recession US housing demand. The kids are still in the basement, and saddled now with $1.5 Trillion in college debt to boot, yet housing prices march onward…in the midst of rising rates. Somebody’s got some ‘splaining to do.
When the Fed is picking up all carry cost of sitting on a gigantic, crumbling structure, including depreciation; why bother making it available to someone who can better afford and make use of it?
Combine that with letting those privileged enough to own a car by 1912 being given a carte blanche “right” to vote over whether they want less privileged upcomlings to be allowed to make their morning commutes more traffic filled; and you arrive at housing quality, affordability and availability like we currently have in Venezuela and the US.
Nothing is ever available, nor affordable, nor plentiful, or good quality, nor well priced; for non party members in communist hellholes.
Agree. Do people know there is an immigration Visa for investors ? It has been exploited by foreigners to buy real estate and launder money.
Amazing that outside of the 9/11 event in 2001 which didn’t affect housing, everytime housing was this low it was in a recession….and that is after 10 years of recovery…graphically housing has been in recession every year in the last decade