Think carefully. 
Consider this report: Native-Born Workers Rise By 2 Million Under Trump To A New Record High, As Foreign-Born Plunge By 1.6 Million
Now since the month-to-month changes are largely driven by seasonal factors, they don’t convey the full picture. What does, is a longer-term study such as the one below, which shows that since Trump entered the White House and his policies started impacting the economy, the number of foreign born workers has slumped from a record 33.7 million in March 2025 to 32.1 million, a drop of $1.6 million. This has been offset by a slow but consistent increase in native-born workers which had been unchanged for six years since 2019 until the start of 2025, at which point it started to rise again, and has increased from 131.2 million in March 2025 to a new record high of 133.2 million in September.
I Respectfully Disagree
The BLS foreign-born worker total is not seasonally adjusted. Thus, it is invalid to compare March of 2025 to now.
The only valid comparison one can make now with unadjusted BLS numbers is September of 2025 to September of 2024. That’s a decline of 670,000.
But wait. Foreign-born includes US citizens. The BLS makes no effort to distinguish between foreign and foreign-born.
There is one more big issue. Since there is widespread disbelief in BLS numbers, why are we supposed to believe this set of BLS numbers?
Are Illegal immigrants suddenly responding to BLS household surveys?
Reality Check
Please consider the Peterson Institute for International Economic report Seeing economic data through the fog of immigration estimates on September 4, 2005, by Jed Kolko.
The recent Current Population Survey (CPS) data showing that there were 2.2 million fewer immigrants in the US in July 2025 than in January are implausibly large and uncorroborated, and imply absurd gyrations in the labor market.
The CPS—or the “household survey,” conducted monthly by the Census Bureau—has seen its response rates decline for years, from 90.3 percent in January 2013 to 67.1 percent in July 2025. The decline has been fairly steady, aside from a huge temporary drop during the pandemic.
It is plausible that response rates have fallen more among immigrants than for the native-born in 2025. Immigrants might be increasingly wary of responding to government surveys as the Trump administration is trying to use IRS taxpayer data and insurance claim data for immigration enforcement.
... The 2025 decline in CPS response rates, combined with reasonable assumptions about the relative decline in response rates for the foreign-born, could therefore explain the entire reported decline in the foreign-born population.
Kolko goes through the math showing it’s even worse than the last paragraph above implies.
Immigration Still Powers US Job Growth
Next, please consider this alternate view from Revelio labs: Immigration Still Powers US Job Growth
The Current Population Survey (CPS) reports 2.2 million fewer immigrants in 2025—a hard-to-believe decline. The growing politicization of immigration, from ICE raids to rhetoric that stigmatizes immigrant communities, has contributed to a sharp drop in survey participation among immigrants, amid recently falling response rates. Many immigrants no longer feel safe sharing information with the government, leaving official data volatile and highly misleading.
This is where alternative data for the labor market can add real value. Revelio Public Labor Statistics (RPLS) is based on information from online professional profiles far less vulnerable to survey bias.
As data on immigration through government surveys are becoming less reliable, alternative data prove their usefulness. Revelio Labs’ granular job history and education history data allow us to address this. While we do not directly observe people’s place of birth in online professional profiles to be able to identify “foreign-born” workers, the level of granularity in the data allows us to predict whether a worker is foreign or not.
To predict whether a worker is foreign or domestic, we use information on the location of their first education entry, the languages listed on their profiles, and the location of their first job. We start with education information: Workers whose profiles include data on their high school education or undergraduate degree outside the US are considered foreign. For workers without education information, we check information about their language proficiency. If they mention languages other than English where their proficiency is native or bilingual, we consider them foreign workers. For the remaining workers, we check the location of their first job and identify them as foreign if their first job is outside the US. By classifying workers into foreign and domestic based on signals from their professional profiles, we construct a stable picture of employment and show how the immigrant workforce is evolving. It is important to note that we are not measuring employment by “foreign-born” and “US-born” workers. Rather, we are measuring employment of foreign workers who moved to the US as adults to pursue higher education or career opportunities.
As of September 2025, the foreign workforce in the US was 10 million workers, accounting for about 6.3% of the total US workforce after a steady increase from 5.6% in January 2021. This increase reflects a strong participation from immigrants not just during the great resignation, but also in the highly competitive market that followed.
Does anyone disagree with what Revelio said about the BLS?
Revelio also handles an issue the BLS does not even try. And that is to separate genuine foreign workers from foreign-born workers who are now US citizens.
Revelio continues
While recent releases of the CPS indicate a sharp drop in immigration in 2025, employment data tells a different story. The number of foreign workers has continued to grow since 2021, with an average y-o-y growth rate of 4%, outpacing the average y-o-y growth of 1.2% among US workers.
However, the y-o-y growth rate of the foreign workforce has slowed notably since the beginning of 2025 alongside changes in immigration policy since the Trump administration took office.
Revelio Data
Those are seasonally adjusted numbers. With adjusted numbers, we can make valid month-over-month comparisons.
Since the start of 2025, foreign workers increased by 192,000. Meanwhile, US employment fell by 73,000.
I find many reasons to be skeptical of the above chart. But that is no reason so start believing illegal immigrants are suddenly answering BLS phone calls.
The idea that foreign-born workers dropped by 1.6 million while US workers rose by 2 million is mathematically and intellectually silly.
Besides, careful application of the BLS unadjusted data is -670,000 not -1.6 million even if you are a sudden admirer of BLS data.
Related Posts
December 4, 2025: Challenger Reports Employers Announced 71,321 Job Cuts in November
Announcements imply future, not immediate, layoffs and unemployment claims.
No Surprise
None of this is a surprise. I have been discussing, and predicting this all year.
The tariff impact on small businesses is starting to take a big toll on small businesses.
Unlike large employers, small businesses have fewer means of tariff avoidance and less ability to hold inventory or eat the tariffs.
December 5, 2025: Welcome to Tariff Complexity Hell, No One Knows What Trump Will Do
Tariffs are a tax, and complexity adds to that tax.
December 3, 2025 : Small Businesses Drop 120,000 Jobs in November, ADP Total Down 32,000
It’s another grim month according to ADP.
Change in Small, Medium, Large Employment Details
- Small: -197,000
- Medium: +275,000
- Large: +1,012,000
Not a bit of this is a surprise to any thinking person. And Trump owns all of it for overpromising and underdelivering.
December 5, 2025: Revelio Says Payrolls Decline by 9,000 the 5th Drop in 7 Months
We don’t have BLS reports but we do have ADP and Revelio.
I wonder how many fans Revelio just lost due to this data on foreign employment.
Applications opened on Dec. 10 for the Trump administration’s new Gold Card program that expedites visas for wealthy individuals.
The program, initiated by President Donald Trump, will fast-track those whom the administration believes will be an asset to the United States economy.
The Gold Card differs from the EB-5 Immigrant Investor Visa, in which foreign investors are asked to invest around $800,000–$1.05 million into a U.S.-based business to create at least 10 full-time jobs for American workers.
It is mainly legal immigration through work visas that powers job growth but there are just as many underemployed and unemployed citizens who are qualified enough. The H1B visa is the biggest scam perpetrated on the citizen worker. If Trump doesn’t fix this, someone a lot worse than him might come into power. As unemployment continues to rise amongst citizens while companies lay them off in favor of hundreds of thousands of visa-based workers, there is going to be only more backlash. Trump has done very little to address all this because there is no quick fix. The truth is we need a GI bill favoring citizens over everyone else for high tech/high wage work. Other countries have infiltrated our political system and it is no longer for the citizen first. Truthfully this is how someone akin to Hitler might rise to power in America in the next 10 years. Between lost jobs due to AI and companies continuing to import workers because of the tech bros power over Trump, it is only going to get worse for even the upper class citizen with a hefty 6 figure income. Life is going to look very different in America by 2033. I think we will have millions of less people and immigration will be all but stopped by 2030.
I respectfully disagree though based only on personal experience. I’ve spent 40 years in IT and have worked with hundreds of H1B holders. They were hired because they have very specialized skills often in IT adjacent fields. It’s much harder to hire native born folks for the work. Not because it is difficult, but because it is specialized and very short term. Most Americans don’t want a job where they have to move every 3-4 months for years and hope their specialty doesn’t suddenly disappear. But I can tell you that those native born folks who are willing get paid a real premium for doing it. And the H1Bs aren’t necessarily making chump change. One Indian guy told me he could live nicely in India for 10 years for one year of work in the US.
I hear from young people that “word of mouth” and social connections are nowadays the key to get a job. AI and online outsourcing have caused significant damage to entry-level, and how will they get experience if they don’t start somewhere?
We’re losing the true specialists, the “grand artists in their craft” if entry-level is being destroyed, and even the long-timers are changing careers every few years.
On top of that, we’ve replaced culture with lifestyles. And this results to a life defined by “dry consumption”.
@Lefteris is your whole worldview based on hearsay?
From Cities handing out houses to korean and indian immigrants, to now this…
And then you extrapolate to hyperbole.
Sorry you are the epitome of ‘dry consumption’ – mindlessly consuming from social media
If the illegal workforce is not contracting, then the increased deportation effort and closing the border must not be having a major impact on employment. If the illegals are still working, then their absence is not putting upward pressure on wages.
So is ICE just putting on a show? It’s an expensive show at $300 billion but maybe that money is just being grifted by *some* people.
https://www.propublica.org/article/kristi-noem-dhs-ad-campaign-strategy-group
Noem has hailed the more than $200 million, taxpayer-funded ad campaign as a crucial tool to stem illegal immigration. Her agency invoked the “national emergency” at the border as it awarded contracts for the campaign, bypassing the normal competitive bidding process designed to prevent waste and corruption.
Trumpers are chumps, got played like fools….if only some wise old President could have warned us….
I never brought up ICE or Noem’s spending habits, only employment and illegal population.
Then you’re not paying attention.
lived in AZ when jan brewer did the show me your papers law as GOV in 2011. it was a debacle. the unattached took off for greener pastures in CA and TX and UT etc……many olds went back with their savings to mexico to retire. the dudes with kids americanized tended to stay. but it was an economic debacle. i saw tons of stores close, barbers to groceries. many of our tenants left. great people and hard working humans. i eye witnessed a number of ethnic roundups. hid some in my back yard on one sweep in our downtown phoenix hood. it’s so stupid. the market there was already horrible and it became death warmed over. when the economy did pick up years later they came back. the border has been wide opened for 400 years. in stupid times like this, like brewer, and like dumb ike and his operation wetback are idiotic and cause much pain, in humanity and economically. but alas when economy changes and political idiots change, the border crossers will be back hugely. follow the past 400 years.
About 2.5 million have been deported so far in Trump’s second term.
Almost all of Biden’s deportations were at the border, whereas these 2.5 million are not border encounters leading to “deportation”.
I know the Democrats and white liberals do not approve of this, and want to go back to Biden’s immigration policies.
I think it is fascinating that ICE is not going after the industries and locations where many are located – businesses that depend on people who are not citizens. Maybe farms in Florida, maybe construction workers in TX, chicken farms in Georgia. I think if you targeted industries then we could do this for a lot less than $300 billion. But then you would hurt the businesses that have paid Trump off not to touch them or not need all the grift that Congress approved.
The only point of my post was to highlight employment wage trends are not changing as much as many expected due to deportation numbers and tighter border control, at least not yet. That said, I agree with your reply on targeting specific businesses as they are not likely employing illegal criminals other than trespassing into the country. It’s been a while so I may not remember the detail exactly right, but a meat packing outfit in Nebraska was raided by ICE and most workers were taken into custody, The company advertised for replacements at about $18/hour and in 2 days got near double the number of applicants needed to fill the vacancies. I guess the jobs can be filled if the compensation is right.
Border crossings are down 95%.
That’s good, but even the legal ones (especially those nobody needed but were imported under subsection XYZ), with current occupation “roomate” or “graphic artist with no training and zero clients”, and other dependents in NY, along with some illegals voting, just elected a 1970s stereotype with no work experience as mayor.
And a “stay at mom’s home until my 40s” with zero work experience in Seattle. It seems that the worse your resume is, the greatest your chances for high political offices.
Our only excuse is that “well it’s getting even worse in Europe”. As if being worse is now the new Olympics.
One sample to support your opinion of poor data: On Quebec Avenue in Denver a year ago there were nearly one hundred Central Americans standing in the morning on corners in a lightly used Mall in groups of two to five, being picked up by vans and pickups. Another score were at numerous street corner stoplights off Quebec collecting cash, washing car windows. All doing jobs we don’t want to do.
They were off the books, and they are not there anymore.
The 2.2 million less per the “fog of immigration” folks…
the recent “fog of war” excuse…
fog must be “the word of the day” from propaganda planning HQ.
But it works well within the bigoted MAGA mind where anything “foreign” is bad and everything local is good and it allegedly shows Trump is doing “something” about foreigners.
The MAGA narrative was that foreigners were keeping wages down so if the premise of the argument is true then wages should be surging, are they? Everyone here getting huge raises?
The MAGA narrative has been that foreigners were keeping wages low and these same people were simultaneously buying up all the housing with their ultra low wages so that means houses should be super cheap now, are they?
The MAGA narrative was that foreigners (with no insurance) were driving up healthcare costs, if the premise of the argument above is true then health care costs should be dropping, are they?
Of course, logic won’t matter to MAGA, they will find a way to continue doubling down on their dumb narratives as Trump’s endless contradictory nonsense continues.
What is going to happen is inflation is about to explode and there will only be short reprieves periodically to let you breath as you drown in inflation.
“It’s Trump turtles all the way down and inflation all the way up!”
<<The MAGA narrative was that foreigners were keeping wages down>>
Which also happens to be the Karl Marx philosophy narrative, who was fiercely against immigration because it was “used by the capital to diminish workers’ negotiating powers etc.”.
<<The MAGA narrative was that foreigners (with no insurance) were driving up healthcare costs>>
Because they were receiving
freetaxpayer-funded healthcare and used a system that’s already suffering from lack of doctors and nurses. Meanwhile, millions of citizens can’t afford health insurance.<<and these same people were simultaneously buying up all the housing>>
Nobody said that foreigners were buying all the houses. But they need housing, and if that housing is either given for free (New York, Chicago) or subsidized (Columbus, OH), without new units built, and with the landlords paid even more than what they would receive from ordinary tenants (New York, and if you want to go abroad, London, which is the champion of this practice), then of course the prices will go up, along with the taxes.
As a note, I could reverse the tables “The Left says that there are no jobs, but they are importing unvetted migrants at the same time”.
———————–
I personally witnessed a case in Philly in 2010, where an otherwise lovely Korean immigrant woman was given for free a listed house (the entire house), along with all utilities paid by the City, because she was working part-time at the Philly museum (she got the job while still living abroad!). A few weeks later her then boyfriend told me that almost all apartments behind the building I was living had been given to Indians rent-free by the city, after the city got the entire block from the former (deceased) landlord. The conversation had started by how dirty, borderline dangerous, that road segment was.
Unfortunately nothing free for the locals, most of them students, who were struggling to pay their rent share along with roommates.
Meanwhile, in the area I have been living the last 12 years north of Chicago (nice village) with no migrants, my rent and all other rents have been only increasing by 3-4% annually.
My editor’s daughter (from Greece) got full-paid scholarship at Yale Medical, without asking for it (they proposed it !!!) and they also paid all expenses to her parents to visit her. Any such chance for American students?
So give me a break – you can’t even suspect the extent of the problem, which started almost 25 years ago. And the inherent hatred of the Left towards “Americans” and their fetish with anything foreign. The hillbilly complex of the wealthy villager who wants to be “different” by bragging about “foreign things and cultures” and being snob to the locals. Yeah, you’re all so “special”.
bully bully
Foreigners distort everything in the economy. The foreign money laundering price distortion alone in the NYC real estate ecosystem is staggering; and that’s with rent control. Also, consider the fact that America’s higher education research has been largely powered by foreigners studying here for at least five decades. How much of the service sector and crop harvesting is foreigners? You can conclude pretty quickly it is a “foreigner economy” just as much as a centrally planned, Federal Reserve, command economy…..
Opinions like a holes every body has one but facts are the furthest thing from you…
take a history class. foreign money in nyc r/e is centuries old. also kids, canada and australia both have about twice the immigrant percentage in their populations. to put a bow on it. all the framers of our constitution and violent revolution were foreigners. born in the UK.
Well technically he is correct, foreigners starting in 1492 screwed up America bigly. It was a nice pristine environment with clean air and water before the foreign invaders came here.
If you think that’s something, Vlad’s and Xi’s ancestors were invading over the frozen Bering Strait 1000s of years before that!
Its been mostly debunked that people came across the Bering land bridge during Ice Ages.
The earliest peoples were Polynesians who sailed across the Pacific thousands of years ago.
i believe the earliest folks canoed and sailed from SE asia along the coast and landed in canada and north and s. amerika. david graeber’s book, dawn of everything is a fun read. i’ve been studying anthropology at university since 1978. i agree the chinese in huge sailing ships made it to s. amerika. and for sure the polynesians too.
Nah, what’s changed is that it is more likely humans boated along the Bering land bridge as opposed to walking. And the Polynesians just share a lot of similar DNA with native Americans. They didn’t start sailing for many thousands of years after the Americas were inhabited.
Does this mean we should give Europe back to the neanderthals?
of course we can argue which folks got to the new world first? did they cross the bering straight 10,000 years ago. who were first? what became the iroquois, or the aztec or mayans? many anthropologists think the chines landed in s. america too. not to mention the vikings in nova scotia to cape cod…….way before the lost italian flying a spanish flag.