US-born employment is lower now than it was in January of 2020. Foreign-born workers make up over 100 percent of the employment gains. 
The Center for Immigration Studies reports Compared to 2019, All Employment Growth Has Gone to the Foreign-Born
Comparing the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2023 shows 2.7 million more people working in the United States — 2.9 million more immigrants (legal and illegal) and 183,000 fewer U.S.-born Americans. Since the depths of the Covid Recession in 2020 employment has increased for both groups. But the number of U.S.-born workers has not made it back to the 2019 pre-Covid level. Equally important, the share of working-age, U.S.-born men without a bachelor’s not in the labor force deteriorated in the decades prior to 2019, and the rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 was lower still. These individuals do not show up as unemployed because they have not looked for a job in the four weeks prior to the survey. The long-term decline in the labor force participation rate of less-educated men is linked to serious social problems, from suicide and crime to drug overdoses and social isolation.
This analysis by the Center for Immigration Studies is based on the Current Population Survey (CPS), collected by the Census Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. We focus on the peak years of prior economic expansions (2000, 2006, and 2019) as well as 2023 because it is the most recent quarterly data available. Immigrants (legal and illegal together) in the CPS are often referred to as the “foreign-born” and include all persons who were not U.S. citizens at birth — primarily naturalized citizens, lawful permanent residents, long-term temporary visitors (e.g. guestworkers), and illegal immigrants.
Labor Force Participation Rate
The participation rate is the percentage of the population that is either working or actively looking for work.
85.5 percent of immigrants without a bachelor’s degree are either working or looking to work vs 75.6 percent of US-born workers.
There are many other charts in a data download in the above link. I created the following charts from BLS data available from the St. Louis Fed.
Employment Level in Thousands
One of the problems with unadjusted data is you can only compare months to the same months in prior years. The yellow highlights show dips in employment every January as one might expect.
I prefer seasonally-adjusted data to compare any month to any other and to see when numbers peaked, but foreign-born employment is only unadjusted.
Nonetheless, my chart shows the same thing as the Center for Immigration chart.
From January 2020 through January 2024, employment rose from 156,994,000 to 159,650,000 for a gain of 2,656,000.
But all of that and then some was foreign born employment which rose from 27,066,000 to 29,842,000 for a gain of 2,776,000. Than means us-born employment is down 120,000 since January 2020.
Mass Deportations?
We have an uncontrolled mess at the border. But the idea we need to round them all up in mass deportations is more than a bit crazy in the opposite direction.
Mass deportations would lead to the biggest labor shortage in US history for picking crops, working on construction, cleaning hotel rooms, etc.
Inflation would be far worse than anything we have seen yet.
One of the frequently frequently circulating ideas is a card check (proof of citizenship or green papers) for employment. If we did this, millions, if not tens of millions of productive workers would be exported.
On the other hand, the massive surge of immigrants in 2023 is straining local governments. Denver is an excellent case in point.
Please note Denver Health at “Critical Point” as 8,000 Migrants Make 20,000 Emergency Visits
Eight-thousand migrants from Central America accounted for approximately 20,000 visits in 2023. Denver Health asked the Federal Emergency Management Agency to provide funds for immigrants’ medical costs. The state and federal governments aren’t reimbursing the hospital, which spent $136 million for patients who didn’t pay.
And in New York City, 2 migrants who stomped and kicked NYPD officers in vicious Times Square attack yet to be arrested.
There is a reasonable middle ground somewhere, but no one trusts Biden to find it. Biden has flouted the Supreme court on student debt, on eviction moratoriums, and on EPA regulations.
Biden issued 64 regulations to open the border and now says he needs congressional authority to reverse them.
Are Ankle Bracelets the Answer?
That may sound like a joke question but on February 6, I noted Biden Proposes Ankle Bracelets and Commands Will Solve the Immigration Problem.
The proposal would put ankle bracelets on immigrants and tell them to show up for a preliminary hearing in 90 days. Then there would be a final hearing in another 90 days.
I asked “What is to stop someone from taking off the bracelet and vanishing forever in a sanctuary city?”
That silly proposal was the laughable concoction of a bipartisan secret deal months in the making.
The Deal in Trump’s Lap
When Trump was president, Chuck Schumer offered Trump a deal of $31 billion for a wall in return for amnesty for dreamers (defined as long-term immigrants).
I thought it was an excellent deal at the time and am certain of it now. Trump turned it down and never finished the wall.
The current choice on the table is now between uncontrollable chaos and open borders, or mass deportations with little or no immigration.
Good luck with that.
As an employer I’ll be hiring American born and legally naturalized citizens so sue me mf’ers.
Chinese and Europeans speak and write better English than most Americans. Hispanics have work ethic and speak English. The denizens of American cities have no work ethic and cannot speak a word of English. Who would you hire? Fanny Willis or Nigel Farage?
In your deluded mind that must be; persons, no matter where they come from, speaking PERFECT english ARE admitted to the US of A ! Speaking perfect english is a consequence of years long scholar education, those people can mostly afford to fly into the US and present their skills in a official way….
Civilized nations teach foreign languages in grade school. I began German lessons in 1st grade. I have met many English speaking Chinese, Greeks, Mexicans, Japanese, Pakistani, Indians, Ukrainians, Iraqis, Persians, Spaniards, Brazilians, etc. who work here or attend the local university. USA does not teach English in big city public schools because the current dictatorship controls the schools. Decent Americans won’t hire the illiterate criminal progeny of big cities.
There has not been a comprehensive immigration policy legislation since Ronald Reagan. I doubt if today it would pass given the divide in this country.
There are solutions but the feckless and bought off legislative, judicial and executive branches of this government are too spineless to pass, implement and constitutionally assent to the will of the citizenry.
The USA is not a constitutional republic anymore. It is an oligarchic plutocracy that selects kleptocrats.
Ive thought about this all day, since the government is the number one agency hiring people, I thought you had to be a US citizen? Our Post Office has hired a number of new people, they are all US citizens. Yes food and farming could be foreign. But I thought #1 was the government? I don’t think DOE or Homeland Security would be hiring non-citizens?
Even if Trump too Chuckel’s deal; Biden would open the gates anyway.
A wall is one piece of boarder security; it needs enforcement.too.
This is not a “immigration” story.
Rather, this is a min.wage & PT/gig economy story…
FT salary positions (read: insurance/benefits) are EVAPORATING.
PT min. wage/gig positions (read: zero benefits) are exploding.
The fact that immigrants end-up filling the PT min. wage positions is a simple supply/demand dynamic. No surprise here at all.
This is just more/accumulated macro/LT consequences of ACA/Obamacare. Shove the bulk of heathcare costs onto 30+hrs./week (FT, salary) payroll/employers, and watch those same employers minimize/eliminate FT/salary jobs & replace them w/ zero-benefits PT payroll structure.
Gen Z & Millennials tend to live off their parents rather than work min.wage/no benefit jobs. That leaves only one demographic to fill the flood of PT/no-benefits jobs… immigrants – legal & illegal.
Very good points.
The law should aim at the EMPLOYERS of illegal labor. We should have a worker VISA that has path to citizenship(with background checks at the source country) and then they can come over(border,plane or otherwise.) Employing an illegal worker should be a $50,000 fine per instance/ per person. That will stop the BS right there and then. These workers should get a wage that is dictated by region and feds. They should also pay into a healthcare fund so if they have an accident at least they have catastrophic. This is one of the easiest issues to solve. No papers, no hire.
The main beneficiaries of this are Drug Cartels. The jobs are not even that good here anymore. My housecleaner wants to go home because costs are so high. This is all designed to help corporations get access to cheap labor illegally. As Marx called it, the Surplus Army of Labor. Labor is the only cost that MUST DEFLATE
Fully agree Cocoa…this is a billionaire driven issue (hidden by the clever NGO tag)…The Billionaires are paying Mexico and the cartels to oversee the runway of migrants coming in through Mexico’s southern border, given phones, water, and food, and then marched in the caravans to the Texas southern border…This is NOT a political issue (democrat vs republican) this is a Class Warfare initiative funded by the billionaires (through our congress)…Treasonous acts by the very people elected to protect our best interest….You cannot have a Class War and a Culture War at the same time…so the Billionaire Class is funding the divisive culture war…at the middle class and below
It only takes a small group of immigrants to filter through the country and create shock waves. The surge hasn’t been vetted.
The town next to me is majority fairly recent immigrants and illegal aliens. I think the only zoning law is no zoning laws. Random small businesses all over the place. Unsightly sure, but big things start from small beginnings as the saying goes.
Box stores and other franchises are pouring into this area. A lot of dollars bouncing around, way more than my town. Also, new nice neighborhoods on the outskirts of it. Gorgeous homes with outrageous HOA fees. I rarely go to my old hardware stores anymore. The ones in this town are always stocked with better parts and supplies.
I agree with Mish that Trump missed out on an opportunity to shore up the main concerns of most Americans. We need people, but people who follow the rule of law and want to contribute to society. We also need a robust deterrent to stop NGO’s from sending these waves of illegal aliens for nefarious reasons and overwhelming towns and ruining society. I don’t pretend to know the right answer but what we have now is weakening the rule of law. Once that breaks down it doesn’t take long for a society to collapse.
I was asked about the 250,000 military aged chinese men entering
seems like a lot of potential to create destruction of our infrastructure
on master XI orders
Fertility rates in Latin America are low. Venezuela don’t have a surplus of people, it’s losing population. The excess is from Africa or some asian countries like Pakistan.
Nonsense. People are FLEEING Venezuela and other countries because they are struggling massively. This isn’t a vast conspiracy…it’s terrible conditions in those S. American Countries. Same for Africa.
And China has a massive amount of unemployment in young people. 21% or so of young people in China are unemployed.
Although there are plenty of people fleeing poorly run countries around the world. People come to America for many reasons…mostly economic opportunities, although Political / Repressive Regimes / Religious Persecution are also popular reasons.
“Biden issued 64 regulations to open the border and now says he needs congressional authority to reverse them.”
There is your dictator.
These ALL get caught up in Lawsuits, until they become LAWS passed by Congress. Get Congress to get off its ARSE and get moving. The time is NOW…
Not too many are opposed to immigration….there are laws in place that are not being enforced….in some instances illegals are receiving benefits at no charge…while many Americans are still being screwed by exorbitant premiums…If all the illegals were registering and paying taxes and social security then most who complain would not have much to say…but many illegals are getting a free ride…
It’s mostly NOT “illegals” be clear about that. However, you are correct that if there were actual opportunities for getting jobs that are on the books, etc. less people would have issues. There are plenty that play the Race Card to gain political power though. That trope is as old as the hills to get elected / stay in power. It’s not smart…but it can be effective.
I wonder how much of that change in natural born US employment is simply boomers retiring from the workforce. We know that we are entering a time when boomers are retiring en mass so we should expect the percentage of natural born US employment to decrease because of that.
Covid and the shutdown of the economy only accelerated that trend as many close to retirement age likely decided to retire early after being out of work for 1+ years and due to being close to retirement age.
Note: The people picking the crops are mostly here legally and don’t need to be deported because they go home of their own volition. Border states like Texas have had temporary work programs to import labor for the fields for decades. It’s been a huge win-win for everyone for the cheap labor here and the money they do make is WAY more than what they could make at home.
The peak of the baby boom was 1957 and 1958. Full retirement age for those born in ’57 is 66 and 6 months so about now. For those born in ’58 it’s 66 and 8 months, so starting next autumn.
So the numbers are already starting to show this and it will continue until the middle of next year. I’ll be signing up for SS in early ’26, so don’t expect any help from me in making the numbers look better.
Yes, you’re 100% correct. Boomers are retiring in a huge wave(s). My Dad would still have been working to this day, in the Medical Field, but mostly retired the last couple years between the CV19 issues / potential issues and never went back. He does run a small company very part time and has a small charity but he doesn’t make the rolls for “Employed”.
Thank a high school guidance counselor!!!
Lankford’s border deal was the solution to get the border under control. But just because Trump is desperate to stay out of prison, and the GOP has become his cult, fentanyl and illegals will keep flooding into the country.
The one that can take action for the past 3 years is Biden. Biden wants the chaos. This chaos was with and on purpose. They really hate the Constitution.
The point that Biden wants chaos makes no sense. He may lose the election because of border chaos. Given the present immigration laws, and if you are not a lawless character like Trump, a law-abiding administration has no way to stop the inflows of illegals given the present push and pull factors driving immigration. A solution was right there in the Senate drafted by a conservative, but Trump wants to be in the White House instead of a prison, and chaos on the border is his best chance (or so he thinks; the NY election suggests otherwise).
You can’t reason with crazy people. Just nod and smile.
Well, given your name, I would certainly not bother to reason with you.
MSNBC talking point.
Gibberish.
The GOP will destroy itself for trump and go under the bus with the rest. Sad to see.
Please, please, please… Bring back the Whig party in their place?
If only more Indian and Chinese IT workers were sneaking across our borders, all would be well. It is getting harder and harder to find one of them who will work for $100 a day.
They don’t need to sneak, they are invited by corporate America under H1B visas just like Ramaswamy likes to do.
link to politico.com
H1B still get paid well relative to illegal immigrants though. I know many that were getting paid 6 figures
A white collar recession is already started. We need everyone we can sneaking over the border to fix this problem
I work as an infrastructure engineer and it’s true there aren’t enough qualified people out there in this field. Last week I had a company from 5 hours away contact me for an onsite job. You don’t just train people once in this field and you’re done. I think many people coming in either don’t have the passion or don’t want to commit to the lifelong learning you need to be effective in this field, as things become obsolete every 2-3 years.
Based on what I see day to day working in Fortune 500 firms, I can tell you corporate America will melt down in about 5 years. No one talks about it and most seem to be oblivious but we will run into shortages of CPAs, lawyers, engineers, tech pros, etc on the high end and also have shortages of people on the low end. I attend “retirement” parties for these people every month. It’s drip..drip..drip of labor loss every month.
Today’s inflation is going to be a joke compared to what’s coming. Don’t say you weren’t warned, it’s coming and the people that will suffer the most are those on fixed income / social security.
You’re probably not wrong. It’s why I put so much importance and focus towards my career – could be the difference between doing ok and death really
Won’t happen. What will happen will be that AI/Automation/Robotics work will be accelerated to become the replacements. And when we have too many out of work humans contributing nothing to the economy/world, the AI Overlord will start firing up the Soylent Green vats and/or will sterilize everyone at puberty.
“When the going gets tough, the tough get going”.
Perhaps the people aren’t capable?
They are. You just don’t read/follow deeply enough.
———
Chinese migrants are the fastest growing group crossing from Mexico into U.S. at southern border
60-minutes
By Sharyn Alfonsi
February 4, 2024 / 7:00 PM EST / CBS News
link to cbsnews.com
PPI came in hot…surprise surprise…..
link to cnbc.com
The issue isn’t just workers, it is population growth. From Census.gov
link to census.gov
“Reduced fertility and an aging population result in natural decrease — an excess of deaths relative to births — in all projection scenarios. This happens in 2038 in the main series, 2033 in the zero-immigration scenario, 2036 in the low-immigration scenario, and in 2042 in the high-immigration scenario.”
America starts dying off in 2033 or 2042 but get rid of all the immigrants and it’ll probably start the day after that happens. Then there won’t be enough workers and inflation will explode. Of course, I think inflation is going to explode anyway, the immigrant labor is very unskilled and will take decades to bring up to snuff for skilled jobs and too many people are retiring or too sick to work in the meantime.
An economy isn’t the Fed, interest rates, debt or Congress, it is trade of goods and services between people and if there aren’t enough people producing goods and services there is no economy.
And everyone can kiss their social security and medicare bye bye.
Boo Hoo, people may have to start eating at home instead of eating out. People may have to mow their own lawn. People may have to start taking better care of their health so geriatric remediation is not necessary. People may have to plant a few tomato plants and zukini. People may have to live in reasonably sized house. Today’s illegal from a Mexican Country is tomorrow’s senior citizen creating the next generation of overburdened resources. Next thing you know we will have to flood the Nation with Africans and Asians to do the work that Mexicans won’t do.
Well, they are killing off young people with fentanyl, gratis of our foreign neighbors. Then, they are killing off older folks with disease and vaccines. So yes they need to replenish
I am so sick of the way that the top levels are managing this country that I can’t work anymore. Did you see which direction John Galt was going when he left?
“Mass deportations would lead to the biggest labor shortage in US history for picking crops, working on construction, cleaning hotel rooms, etc.”
And don’t forget the cost of finding and then transporting literally millions of illegal migrants back to thier countries of origin. And how long would such an endeavor take? Months? Most likely years. One could try to get them to self deport, but that’s no guarantee either.
The illegals that are already here are most likely here for good. The focus should be 1st on fixing the chaos at the border to stop the massive flow of illegals.
This where the Soylent Green vats come into play. Your choice: Leave on your own or be sent to the vats.
Not a comment but a question … how do they determine employment? Is a person who lost their full time job and now works 2 part time jobs considered a job gain (even though they make less and have no benefits)? I retired early but manage my rental portfolio. Is this employment (technically I also hire contractors … but since they are not W2 labor … I’m guessing I’m not an employer). My sons are both entrepreneurs … do they show up as “employed”? Both run businesses.
Mish, why do you spread such “right wing” propaganda? The great replacement “conspiracy” is for nut job. Trump and Putin seem to be saying the same.
I am torn between trashing your comment, banning you for the silliness of it, or making a fool of you for suggesting I am in on right-wing propaganda.
I do the latter.
I wrote a very balanced post, just added a couple of paragraphs to it on immigrants attacking police officers and the Denver health system. I took a very balanced approach, spent hours confirming the data and came up with essentially the same numbers.
It would be beyond stupid, economically, to round up everyone and deport them. No crops would be picked. Constriction would collapse. No hotels would get cleaned.
Hey Mish – it was total sarcasm. /s – Anyway, love your columns.
Sometimes we suspect some folks of being fools.
Then they write or say something and we become sure of it.