Let’s review the scorecard starting January 2025.
Government Jobs 2026-02
- Federal: Down 327,000 -10.86 percent from 3,010,000
- State: Down 45,000 -0.81 percent from 5,525,000
- Local: Up 128,000 +0.86 percent from 15,022,000
- Total: Down 234,000 -0.99 percent from 23,557,000
Trump-DOGE can claim 327,000 out of 23,557,000 or 1.4 percent.
This is helpful but hardly a start at reducing overall government bureaucracy.
Nonfarm Jobs by Sector Detail
Nonfarm Sector Jobs in Thousands
- Manufacturing: 12,573
- Leisure and Hospitality: 16,922
- Information: 2,812
- Retail: 15,427
- Construction: 8,309
- Professional and Business Services: 22,385
- Financial: 9,166
- Government: 23,323
- Private Education and Health: 27,722
Government is the second largest jobs sector at 23.32 million, following Private Education and Health at 27.72 million.
Professional and Business Services is third at 22.39 million. However, professional and business services is struggling.
White Collar Jobs
Private Education and Healthcare is the only segment of the economy that humming.
State and local government jobs are holding their own.
This does not tend to happen outside of recessions.
Related Posts
February 11, 2026: BLS Revises Nonfarm Payrolls for 2025 Lower by 1 Million Jobs
For the second year, the BLS annual benchmark revision was hugely negative.
February 11, 2026: Another Look at the Incredible January 2026 Jobs Report
Do you believe the nonfarm payroll report for January 2026?
March 6, 2026: Nonfarm Payrolls Decline by 92,000 in February, Household Data Is Garbage
Annual Household benchmarks were again huge. Smoothed data not yet released.
More Huge Negative Revisions Are Coming
Q: How do we know that?
A: For details, please see my February 27, 2026 post BLS Private Payrolls for 2025 Q2 Overstated by ~847,000
The Business Employment Dynamics report shows -321,000 vs Payroll report +526,000. Believe BED.
Those negative revisions will be on top of the negative revisions posted last Friday.
Note: I will be tied up when the futures open. Will post when I can
Well to be more accurate, since DOGE and Trump can only directly impact the Federal workforce, they did reduce Federal jobs by 10.86%, which is significant and more than I expected.
Fun fact the Trump regime is now going on a hiring spree~ yay! but of course these hires will just be maga sycophants not qualified individuals doing good work but rather hired for their loyalty to dear leader. So we will soon be spending more and getting nothing in return. good job maga
One weird trick for Mish readers to shrink the budget:
Tax the oligarchs until the budget is balanced. Tax income and wealth too, until we see satisfactory results.
Why? Temporarily set aside the math and think of the incentive: Your oligarchs employ your politicians who sign the bills put before them. If your oligarchs could keep more money by reducing government spending, then that is what they would direct their employees would do.
Each oligarch will still fight for their own pork. But they will also spend some time fighting “pork for the other guy”, because now that hurts them more substantially.
Obviously the oligarchs’ politicians won’t do it on their own. They’re employees. So stop complaining about them spending money. That’s what they’re paid to do. You’re complaining to the house servants or customer complaint hotline operators. … Don’t vote for them either, obviously. Vote for your own independent candidates who promise to soak the rich.
Restore budget discipline by incentivizing the oligarchs to want budget discipline.
If the oligarchs employ our politicians, then how will they ever be taxed? It’s not like there is a separate system us normies can use to tax them, its done through the politicians, whom as you’ve said, they already own and control.
Yes. That’s the catch.
“Vote for your own independent candidates who promise to soak the rich.”. As I often say: neighbors must meet neighbors and pick an honest champion among them to run for the House.
Waiting for the oligarchs to offer two new puppets every election? That’s a guaranteed way to throw away a vote.
Personally i want efficient government. Cutting jobs does not necessarily cut waste or cost. Not saying there is not areas where things can be improved. Politicians cut jobs then complain that nothing gets done.
To me it seems the paperwork and cya is part of the waste. Then there is the gov contracts handed out from congress to their buddies.
Its easy to spend other peoples money ( congress). Its easy for us to let them spend it because we never actually see the break down of where it goes.
I suggest every dept gets an operating budget. Go over budget and the dept head gets canned.
If congress allocates anything extra. Say money to Israel or fema disaster etc. it goes on your taxes next Year with a break down how much you pay in your tax bracket.
Prob solved. If you knew you were gonna be paying a couple thousand bucks next year for this iran war you might change your mind about it.
Federal Jobs have been getting cut by Trump since he took office, in one form or through another. It was bloated, in some areas, so he thinned it out. One of his few agreed on accomplishments.
Local Jobs are part of the self supporting groups, sort of like Unions, but without the middlemen sucking a ton of the money up. As a result they stay together, remain strong, work hard, and build a family atmosphere of up coming workers, and taking care of deserving past ones too.
States (Many!) were/are so used to the flow of money, that they don’t know what to do, now becoming broke, and no life line in sight. They thought they could make up for it with State Jobs taking place of the lost responsibility by the lost Fed Jobs. Thing is, they can’t print money, and they way overspent, with disregard for the current scenario now in play. They are broke, and some are now even shedding taxpayers, now making them even further in debt. The Fix = Stop Spending, but they can’t and won’t until it’s impossible to do so, but all the damage will have been done, and with no resources to get it repaired, and no Fed with money to flow either.
That’s where we are at…
So if we have inflation, then we are probably spending way too much on unneeded and unnecessary things, and also on our military, tangled up in wars. Jobs will continue to be cut, so inflation will and is becoming a way of life for most. That will not/can’t stop, until we stop spending. That simple!!!
What would oil go to if Iran had Nukes and you had to deal with them??? Anyone>>
It would be where it was before this war started. They would have been left alone and wouldn’t have shut the Straight of Hormuz.
If tactical enough, there would be no oil left available to fret over, so to speak…
Let’s all pontificate on a FUBAR world, and pretend it’s a useful conversation. 90% of everyone would be dead inside one year.
TRUMPDow getting hammered and WTI crude is trading at $107 per barrel.
Tehran is on fire and acid rain is falling.
Thank MAGA and Fox News!
Japan and Korea stocks down 6%, you can’t have an economy with no energy. I’m going to buy more Korean stocks tomorrow. I love catching falling knives, especially sharp ones!
And US Treasuries yields to the moon!
https://www.cnbc.com/bonds/
JUST IN: A LARGE tanker has just SAFELY made its way through the Strait of Hormuz amid the conflict with Iran, per Sec. Chris Wright Great news for energy prices! This is because Iran is getting DECIMATED by the US and Israel, their capabilities are dwindling
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/2030637695857230099
One tanker huh. Well I guess it’s mission accomplished. The world can get by on one tanker so I will sleep well tonight.
A US-sanctioned tanker blacklisted for handling Iranian liquefied petroleum gas crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, one of only a handful of vessels to make it through the waterway in recent days.
I’ve worked in or supporting the public sector for 25 years. The system is designed to be bloated, over budgeted and inefficient. Unless public sector agencies are outsourced and madated to perform efficiently, then legitimately audited, the problem will only continue to grow. Currenty, waste is actually incentivised
Yes and no. Private companies perform well in meeting consumers’ desires, but do poorly in ramping up when the need for weaponry increases substantially. That’s why there’s a shortage of Patriot missiles and artillery shells. Defense companies don’t want to invest in new factories because they’re at risk of peace breaking out. They are focused on profit not winning wars. Better to charge a lot for cutting edge stuff than charge less for less cutting edge stuff. Of course, quantity has a quality all its own.
WTI futures at $108/109 tonite
DOW down 1000
Told you guys to buy Puts…..lots of profitgasms.
Yup. I am prepping for huge profitgasms tomorrow. I am gonna be gushing profits all day long. Watching Pete Hickseth pound on his chest on 60 minutes like a gorilla confirms the profit narrative.
Trump says it’s a small price for YOU to pay. I hope someone is thinking of those poor thirsty F150s!
where are the tankers? https://www.shiptraffic.net/2001/04/hormuz-strait-ship-traffic.html
I thought they all turned off their transponders to sneak by?
I have also been watching for a transit through the straight and not seen one. Of course I would have turned off the transponder and gone through silently myself, so my observations mean little.
The DOGE scam was to obtain the data of the Federal government–break and enter all of the different data silos and provide a consolidated data pool for the tech bros on the American public.
Now used by ICE to threaten those who oppose ICE oppression. Soon to be used on those opposing the Iran war.
Your point of contact? IRS, SSA, Medicare, TSA etc.
Imagine, Trump being as fiendish as the government itself, which remorselessly collects data on all its subjects, and uses it to regulate their health, their knowledge, and Lord knows what else.
I suppose in the next Democratic administration, they will come around and prosecute all those who voted Republican, “secret vote” be damned. Remember the lady bureaucrat (I think it was) who told rescue workers to go past houses with anti-Biden signs during one of your emergencies?
Imagine all that info used to say target voters with adds/ punish voters on opposite side/ etc etc.
I’m not sure looking at raw numbers of government job reductions provides a meaningful look at Doge’s success (or failure). I think you need to look at whether the jobs cut were the right jobs to cut. My feeling is that DOGE also only looked at raw numbers and this is why it was such a huge failure overall.
You are better off reducing government jobs by 100,000 if they are truly redundant than by 1,000,000 if they are just random and those people will need to hired back at some point.
The problem was not that DOGE cut jobs but that it did so indiscriminantly with no understanding of the effects on the agencies/users
Pair the downsizing numbers with the amount of essential Fed govt service due to the downsizing to get a better look at the situation. Downsizing of the fed workforce by the Trump administration &DOGE—reportedly aiming for over 150K additional layoffs—is seriously disrupting essential services, including SS benefit processing, VA health care & disability claims, public health monitoring (CDC), workplace safety inspections (OSHA & cybersecurity oversight (FedRAMP). Key impacts include: Long delays in processing retirement benefits, disability claims, & providing medical care to vets; reduced capability for CDC to investigate diseases & EPA to clean up hazardous waste sites; educed capability to manage cybersecurity for fed IT systems; delays in, or closure of OSHA& MSHA offices, & disruptions to agricultural aid programs.
Credit Musk for most of DOGE. Maybe Russ Voight for what follow-through there was. The quickness with which Trump withdrew his support for DOGE was an early sign he was a fraud.
Whatever savings DOGE made is irrelevant because hundreds of billions are about to be squandered on the military and the federal deficit is going to skyrocket.
Before the Iran war, Trump asked Congress for a $600 billion increase to bring military spending to $1.5 trillion per year. A huge increase like that is now guaranteed because we’re now in a war started by the ‘Peace President’.
More deficit spending is on tap, which will increase inflation on top of the inflationary effects of very high oil prices caused by the war.
My neighbor got put on “something” by the DOGE boys. Their badge, phone, computer, and email were taken away. But not their paycheck. For one year they collected full pay to stay at home. They have now been recalled to active status.
Republican politicians scream to their base about smaller government. Then complain about it being inefficient. Ie because its under staffed.
Maybe after President Trump has saved Israel and stabilized the world, he will be able to get back to cutting down the size of the American Government. Did he get around to abolishing the Department of Education? That would be a huge saving with no associated costs.
I believe the British disestablished the Church of England around the end of the 19th century, ending something like ten centuries of Christian graft. If education were disestablished, those who wanted it could pay for it.
In the meantime, all the people who were lured into taking out student loans for bogus knowledge should be compensated for their expenses and loss of time.
“compensated for their expenses and loss of time”
Yeah, no. Here’s one lesson they probably didn’t teach them in school : never trust the government and be skeptical about crowded bets (everybody getting worthless degrees makes them not so employable).
Dead right. Btw, I seem to have been making an idiot of myself. I thought your comments were being censored. It looks as if I must have accidentally hit a button that “hid” your comments from me.
In school, I was always told how important it was to go on with education. Since then, I have learned the phrase “talking your book,” which, as you probably know, means urging other people to invest in what you have already invested in yourself.
This student loan business is especially cruel to working-class kids and their parents who have ambitions to do better in the next generation, because they don’t have the knowledge or sophistication to avoid the rubbish courses.
Student loans?
Try all loans. We have been lied to for a long time, that lie was make more money than your parents and you will do well. This led to people taking on debts that do not help them in the long term. With the inflation increases every generation even if they make more money can buy less with it. They solved this by allowing you to take on debt, and that is the trap.
Sooner or later all those debts will come due, and not just finance ones.