A reader asked that interesting question. So I created two new charts.
In August, nonstore (think Amazon), sales skyrocketed 2.0 percent. Total sales rose by 0.6 percent. Without the surge in nonstore sales, total retail sales would have only risen 0.3 percent.
This works both ways. For example, the first yellow highlight, July of 2024, shows nonstore sales at -1.5 percent. Total sales rose 0.9 percent. Excluding nonstore sales, retail sales rose 1.4 percent.
Since January 2024, there are 11 instances where nonstore sales made a positive contribution to overall sales. In one of those instances, August of 2024, nonstore sales made a positive contribution by being less negative.
Since January 2024, there were 9 instances where nonstore sales made a negative contribution to overall sales.
Reader Question
Nonstore Contributions Over Time
The lead chart shows 11 positive contributions and 9 negative contribution since January of 2024.
However, the positive contributions greatly outweigh the negative instances.
I created another new chart to show this.
Nominal Advance Retail Sales Total vs Total Minus Nonstore
Online Shopping Q&A
Q: Do online purchases from Walmart and other stores constitute nonstore sales?
A: Yes, online are considered nonstore sales. Nonstore sales refer to retail transactions that occur outside of traditional physical brick-and-mortar stores, such as through online platforms, mail-order catalogs, or direct sales.
The propensity of people to shop online is growing. That means the online contribution to total retail sales is growing.
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I haven’t been in a grocery store in at least two years, other than a couple of stops to get perishable specialty items. We have all of our groceries delivered by Amazon Fresh, Walmart and Whole Foods, and it is a huge help. We have an extremely elderly relative living with us and that makes going out difficult, and also I’d rather not catch something and infect him, and also the traffic in our area is terrible. The produce is better than Safeway produce (but not as good as boutique grocery produce), and the prices are great. I am hoping that Amazon Fresh starts to cover my mom’s area too; it doesn’t yet (and Instacart groceries are insanely expensive).
Amazon recently started a “same day” delivery program for groceries; no delivery fee and the minimum purchase is $25. And no tipping (unlike with Amazon Fresh). It has fewer items than Amazon Fresh, but still most of what someone might need. This is going to attract a lot of new business for them. I don’t know if income from this new program would be showing up in the data you described.
I would suggest for Me it all started with Covid. My wife fell ill during this time, and as a result, we had to change our lifestyle choices. Due to immune issues, going out was not much of a choice. Whether by luck or perhaps done on purpose, not a conspiracy but a factual observation, Amazon suddenly popped up with hundreds of vehicles, and employees, and changed our lives as well as many others, I must assume.
So once we learned how to use this new tool we had, and along with scheduled deliveries for medicines for example, my Pet supplies, my housing supplies etc. we engaged into a full blown change of life style in regards to shopping. We SAVE so much money now and shopping is no longer a hassle. We save buying bulk, getting a % back on purchases, the general overall cost are lower, less gas and wear and tear on our vehicles. We shop smarter, and are more date oriented in our replacement items.
Many have had, as we have, a return issue, but that was rectified awhile ago. Now we have multiple stores (Kohls, Grocery Stores, etc.) that happily take back items in a quick and convenient setup. So no hassles any longer there either. A near flawless model they have developed.
Other than my Wife, on occasion, having to try something on for a wedding, funeral etc. She finds no need to go shopping anymore, other than from the comfort of Our Home! You can change your schedule too, and not with much hassle I would suggest from personal experience. We love this “New Model of shopping” if you will, for countless reasons.
Now comes fear of course, and that’s the removal of other shopping avenues that exist. Due to competition, I fear many could fall to the way side. Once a monopoly takes hold, as it appears to have around my area (trucks and trucks every day), I fear brick and mortar places could crumble. Once we are all locked in, does it become along the lines of a “Digital Currency” perhaps? Our choices may dwindle, our cost could slowly rise, and our deliveries could start to slip? Just worried (a tad) about being cornered into a way of shopping without a choice moving forward. As convenient as it is, it’s not like shopping of old, and for many an unacceptable form of shopping. It’s more like “Sears Catalog” type shopping of old.
One more thing I noticed, and that’s the result of going out to shop, we would also plan a lunch or breakfast often times, we no longer due this. To save money, as things are tighter yes, but not necessary now, as the shopping method always allows us to be stocked up on most essential items. We also have grown to enjoy the cost savings there as well. Now we go out to eat far less often, but make it special when we do, and more up scale now because we can!! Still working it all out, but damn it’s been nice so far!!!
He is 83 w/ health issues me 80, we seem to save more (money builds up w/ direct deposits of retirement incomes incl muni’s, 401k.) So now we eat out more and just bought a ’26 vehicle loaded w/ safety features. I buy our clothes in local stores and don’t want to see businesses close anywhere. Watching grocery ads are important too.
May I point out that if you really look into this it’s likely people frontrunning the de-minimis exemption ending.
This is now the second time where tariffs have caused an effect like this where people run out to buy temu goods before they disappear, just for economists to yell “SEE! EVERYTHING IS GREAT!” moments before the next month’s charts show a crater.
I know for sure I was part of it, as several shops I use are now not even shipping here unless it’s with DHL’s $30 flat rate.
Very possible
Bought an ATV battery today on Amazon for $59 overnight free shipping. I could buy it at Orielly’s for $111 just a mile from my house, I will wait until tomorrow for it.
The internet has been a real game changer for retail since its inception in 1994/95 (though there was an internet before then, there wasn’t a world wide web, which made graphics and user-friendly contact a possibility). With the proliferation of online sales websites, and the stability of the platform, has come an explosion in delivery straight to doors.
I wonder how they do online shipping in building-dense places like New York City and downtown Toronto. You can’t just leave the purchases in front of the building on the street. And yet many people work. Buzz their apartment and you’ll find no one home.
Amazon was really made for suburban and exurban deliveries. It’s like UPS in this. Communities that are more distant from convenient shopping points make excellent candidates for van delivery of goods. I’m not sure I’m looking forward to millions of drones flying everywhere delivering goods, though. The world is cluttered enough as it is.
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In the land of dense/apartment houses? Amazon/PO drop boxes.
Highest prices on groceries in THREE YEARS.
I don’t think Trump understands how bad this is for him because that was the issue he got elected on. Nobody cares about immigrants, nobody wants a civil war, people wanted cheap groceries for the first time since the pandemic.
– I don’t think Trump understands how bad this is for him because that was the issue he got elected on. > Actually He got elected on a few issues, and #1 was probably illegal Immigration. They were stealing our Schools, Hospitals, Money, Jobs, Our Living Spaces etc. ALL Illegally! We were never even close to a “Civil War” as that was pure propaganda, and EGGS were the issue and not overall food. In fact. Another phony plot to add fuel to a burning out flame of lies.
On top of that, nearly ALL of these issues were not really issues at all for most. It was mostly propaganda to stir things up. Once Trump got into office, most of these issues totally disappeared. It started with the phony egg prices, and ended with illegal immigration. All is well…
We do care about invaders coming here illegally bringing drugs and Islam into the country to start problems. Everyone concerned about prices in groceries. I don’t agree w/ all Trump does meddling in Europe or Ukraine issues.
ANYTHING i want or need I get from Amazon. Check there first.