Another last chance for a deal. OK, assume a deal. What’s in it?
Progress Reported
I take all of this with a bucket of skepticism, but Bloomberg reports Qatar, Bessent Signal Progress on Short-Term US-Iran Deal
The prospect of a deal between the US and Iran appeared to be gaining traction on Tuesday, after Qatar said a proposal had been drafted and American Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sounded hopeful on an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil reversed earlier gains, and US government bonds rallied, on optimism that mediators will be able to broker a deal and avoid major American airstrikes on Iran. Brent crude traded below $82 a barrel, dropping 2.5%.
Both Qatar and Bessent cautioned there’s no solid agreement yet and Iran has not signaled there’s been progress on Hormuz.
“We’re in talks with the Iranians and I think there is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait,” Bessent said to CNBC on Tuesday. Asked whether there would be a toll on maritime traffic, he added: “I think it would be freedom of movement.”
Bessent’s comments came after the foreign ministry of Qatar, one of the main mediators between Washington and Tehran, said a proposed de-escalation resolution was “being circulated between the parties.”
A Qatari spokesman said he couldn’t provide a timeline for a pact and that the focus is on finding a short-term resolution to avoid a further confrontation.
It’s unclear if Qatar was referring to negotiations between Iran and Oman to get more ships sailing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Tensions have ramped up in recent days, with Trump saying he was giving Iran a final chance to reach a deal. Over the weekend, he held off on attacks — likely along with Israel — he said would have been the largest since World War II.
“I want to give them every last chance before decapitation,” Trump told reporters on Monday. “You’ll find out today or tomorrow. I mean, they’re going to go quickly, one way or the other. It’s not very complex.”
Iran Denies the Strait Will Open
Total Control of the Strait
Rubio Says there Is a Deal
Oman Yet Again
Last Chance
Musical Tribute
Well This Could Be the Last Time
Well I told you once and I told you twice
But you never listen to my advice
You don’t try very hard to please me
With what you know it should be easyWell this could be the last time
This could be the last time
Maybe the last time
I don’t know. Oh no. Oh no
Hopefully the Rolling Stones have clarified things.
“We’re in talks with the Iranians and I think there is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait,” Bessent said to CNBC on Tuesday. Asked whether there would be a toll on maritime traffic, he added: “I think it would be freedom of movement.”
Freedom of movement right after paying the toll and if the US has removed blockades of Iranian ports.
Thus far, taco has lived up to his moniker and don’t expect him to change. The sad part is there appears to be a number of people who actually believe his daily lies and accusations, as well as persecutions of individuals who don’t agree with him.
Trump will not get a ‘deal’.
Iran is done with these treacherous perfidious low-lifes.
No point talking.
Trump either sticks to the agreement he signed, or puts up with continually worsening conditions & options.
There is no agreement Iran can make that Israel will tolerate. Whether the entire world burns down matters nothing to Israel or Trump.
Maybe it doesn’t matter to some very religious Israeli Jews. I bet it matters to Trump and Netanyahu.
Mish, First excellent choice of music, lyrics and band to dovetail with your theme.
Second, the failed hedge fund manager that has now turned into a Janet Yellen on steroids as the secretary of the treasury is supposed to be the new frontman of an administration that has lost credibility with Iran, China, Russia, the GCC, most of Latin America and the Global South save a few autocrats in the aforementioned regions.
Bessent is also doing his best impression of a makeup artist putting lipstick on a pig. The US has lost this war. Miss Piggy sitting behind the Resolute desk has been a serial liar his entire professional career as a failed businessman and now a failed president. So, no one that has the foreign policy chops that Russian, Iranian, and Chinese leadership have buys into anything Trumps says anymore. They pay him lip service because he is the president and the US is still militarily, politically and economically important in world affairs. Miss Piggy also has his right trotter on the nuclear button so Tehran, Beijing and Moscow will tread lightly to prevent a nuclear holocaust.
There will be no deal as long as Miss Piggy has the final say. The US will eventually leave with its tail between its legs and Miss Piggy will declare victory and leave the Middle East as CENTCOM also leaves the GCC if not in humiliation at least as soundly defeated as Xerxes (ironically a Persian) was against the Athenians where his armed forces left soundly defeated in war but the empire continued.
Unlikely Israel, that runs the US, will let their protector go as end times would be next.
When the rubber meets the road, things change. The US in this instance is the rubber and Iran is the road.
Israel is not a player in N. Africa nor W. Asia. She is approximately the size of NJ and its shrinking population of approximately 7M from an earlier 9M was also similar to NJ.
American Zionists and Christian Zionists are losing in the contest of their racist ideology and religious bigotry because informed US citizens fully realize that the Zionists and the modern of state of Israel were founded on a false premise due to the fact that historically the Zionists are atheists or agnostics.
This is not to say that the lie cannot continue in parts of the Boomer generation and conservative communities in this country but the momentum has swung given the polling and Congressional primaries this year.
Valid assessment I and most of us certainly would like to share, even though our generation may perhaps not be around anymore when the rubber finally hits the road.
If it wasn’t for the golden rule that he who owns the gold sets the rule..
I see:
Trump, Bessent, Rubio – so so desperate to make a deal
while Iran is saying there is no negotiation.
Trump broke the agreement repeatedly and there is no
point Iran should sign another MOU or another JCPOA
or any other agreements.
Unless US pay heavy price upfront eg. 300 billion $ upfront
in any form.
The price will have gone up with the latest bombings
Trump had a great day today, he measures them by the Dow. As long as he can continue to keep the markets pumped up, he will be happy and will easily continue to convince himself he is the best President in history.
There is no deal with the US, only the Hormuz deal Iran is doing with Oman. There is some talk of it complying with the MoU, which would mean no fees for the first 60 days following the signing, because Iran wants to show the world that it complies with its agreements even when the US does not. Trump will claim credit for a deal with Oman, because he cannot permit the world to realize that he is not a player and is being ignored.
If he’s not a player, why are you so worried about his warships and bombers?
The best Trump can do is to stop the conflicts agglutinating into one global war.
https://strategic-culture.su/news/2026/08/04/tensions-flicker-into-flame-lapping-across-the-middle-east/
Leave it to Trump to simply redefine the Strait of Hormuz as the southern part and “Coastal Iran” as the northern part. That way Iran loses control of the redefined Strait of Hormuz and he can shake down Oman after it makes a deal with Iran.
There is no deal Iran can make that will satisfy Israel. Therefore, no deal will be made.
Israel is perfectly happy to burn down the world to destroy Iran. Trump is perfectly happy to burn down the world to avoid releasing The Files.
Once you understand that we are dealing with full-blown Game Of Thrones sociopaths, everything they do makes perfect sense.
Corrct.Unless Netanyahu blesses the agreement, there will be no agreement.
most people with an ounce of common sense figured out the amerikan empire has been run by sociopaths for many decades. if you haven’t figured it out by age 16, it’s usually too late.
You’d be amazed how many gullible people still buy the Eagle Flag Freedom BS.
Not all of those suckers are American.
ha ha ha. warms my heart and makes me LOL to know what you say is true. god bless the useful idiots.
Unfortunately idiots are usually only useful to people who have bad intentions. And you chaps are useful idiots.
“How Much Will Trump Cave In to Get a Deal with Iran?”
For me, I think it’s like Zappa’s Catholic Girls (from Joe’s Garage)
“All the way”
https://youtu.be/K0zEX8h17eA?si=9KHJEimH888pAgFc&t=43 (qued to “All the way”)
All these “deals” are going to be temporary holding operations because Iran cannot trust America will honor any commitment. Maybe some more durable arrangement can be found once Trump is out of the picture by the end of 2028, and the US can start to regain some of its lost reputational capital.
Nobody ever trusted the US. It was advantageous to play along when the US were an industrial power and later a financial center. Now that it’s heading towards neither, it ceased to be advantageous to play along. Those countries with closer ties to the US have more to lose, so they’ll play along longer, but, thanks to the Pedophile in Chief, the number of those countries is dwindling quickly.
I mean, did you really eat your own dog food about being exceptional and the leader of the free world? You were played by your own vassals, sir.
Oh, you mean like Biden, St. Obama, Shrub, Clinton and Daddy Bush did?
The US has not had a good foreign affairs president since Nixon and he couldn’t be trusted with the Vietnam War.
Maybe if the US stopped entering wars against countries that have no existential threat or are part of blowback, maybe we could restore some of our greatness that we possessed after WW II as the premier industrial power, preeminent military power, the nation that rebuilt foundationally its enemies and helped restore W. Europe from a broken region economically to a viable competitor by the 1960s.
This would take real leadership. I don’t see any George Marshall’s at the Defense and State Departments. This is not to say that there aren’t future leaders that may rise to the occasion.
I am with you that out of a crisis maybe the US can regain some of its lost reputational capital.
The fact that Bessant is making announcements concerning war and geopolitics is the tip-off. Don’t we have seasoned diplomats to make such announcements or am I showing my age?
Trump and Bessant are making billions for their friends in hedge fund land. There is no deal, and even if there is one, it will dissolve just as quickly as the last MOU.
They are playing the world’s largest economy like a penny stock for profit.
The US ten and 30y were going up before oil surged. Inflation is baked into the cake and it won’t be long before Japan is selling their treasuries to stailize their currency.
Ahh yes, the bond market can put all this foolishness on ice We can take the pain in exchange for sanity.
All of the seasoned diplomats have been fired. Jared Kushner’s father ( convicted felon ) is the ambassador to France. Don jr’s ex is ambassador to Greece. etc etc etc
In the end, Trump will remove all sanctions, unfreeze all assets, and give them $100+ billion to pay for reconstruction.
donald the omniscient knows
and will tell all on Truth Social if only
you’ll send in the low, low price of $10,000/.month ,
eternally
No matter how much Trump caves to try to secure a deal, he will fail.
His desperation for a deal is obvious to the entire world.
That only signals to Iran that it holds the stronger hand.
Why would they reward him with concessions when they believe time is on their side?
They can make him chase, wait, sweat, and struggle for as long as they choose.
That humiliation is the only deal he will ever get.
Is a financial agreement between Oman and Iran the answer to the war?
No, it is just the smooth transition to the new toll regime after the war.
Who in this admin or GOP congress ia pushing for peace?
No one
And Trump’s own special polling shows he’s the most popular thing since oxygen
Sorry, no peace today
States don’t make deals, but celebrate treaties. When has this entered into the news vocabulary to refer to states making deals? Only shysters make deals. I rhetorically answered my own rhetorical question.
Yes, shyster indeed. Schuftes!
“Deal” will be forgotten out of current vocabulary soon. It is offensive and I share your views.
Here is a summary of Western Thinking (Negotiating) versus Middle Eastern>>>>
>>>>Key Tactical Differences:
bessent has been very active lately , he’s clearly very worried about the bond market
No matter what Trump has to give away which is just about everything the IRANIANS want Trump will spin it as a WIN for Him !
The total and utter humiliation will come when Trump gets a worse deal than Obama did. Of course MAGA morons will say it’s a better deal no matter what but we all know it’ll be a total failure.
2-star Mishelin award granted on post.
Bessent? Who’s in charge anyway.
Epstein is.
They’ve got Bessent out there hitting the media circuit HARD today…looking more and more like a pump & dump…or in Scott’s case a dumpster pump
Bessent is the only person left there with some remaining shreds of credibility, so he gets deployed now to defend the indefensible. It reminds me of “W” Bush burning up the political capital of Colin Powell to push the Iraq war.
Uh, sorry, there is no one left on Trumps team with a shred of credibility. As soon as you join Trumps team you sacrifice your credibility by merely associating with this corrupt moron and being forced to agree with every lie he tells.
Bessent supported the tariffs knowing they were illegal! How can you have credibility after that?
Besides Bessent is secretary of the treasury. What has he got to do with foreign policy, nuclear weapons, and war? Maybe the White House Janitorial staff should have a go at sorting out this mess that Trump has caused. Cleaning up Trumps mess is their job after all.
The thing missing from this entire conversation is Iran’s Nuclear program. Basically we are talking only about Hormuz and how to split the tolls as if sorting that out spells any level of success for all the pain Trump has put the world through.
Trump is now a demented broken down old man who needs to be put out to pasture and the world needs to move on from this nightmare.
I think you’ve hit the nail on the head in one way. What really matters is Persia’s program to build nuclear bombs and modern missiles. Israel can’t tolerate that. Neither could Europe if the Europeans had any sense. But they seem happy collaborating with America in trying to surround and destroy Russia.
Colin Powell’s role in the My Lai Massacre investigation was that of a Major serving as the assistant chief of staff for operations for the Americal Division in late 1968.
“In his December 1968 report, Powell concluded that there was no evidence of systematic wrongdoing, stating that “relations between American soldiers and the Vietnamese people are excellent” and characterizing any mistreatment as merely “isolated cases.”
This report effectively dismissed the allegations and contributed to the initial cover-up of the atrocities, as the true scale of the massacre (which had occurred in March 1968) remained hidden from higher command and the public until late 1969.”
i never did understand the public’s infatuation with powell. mr wmd and my lai
Because Powell was a black man whose moderate rhetoric and dignified demeanor allowed Americans to feel good about themselves (See what a good person I am!) while not making them change anything of substance about themselves or the way the economic pie gets sliced.
Wow! If that’s true, it certainly sheds a new light on the good Negro, Colin Powell. So he was always just a goodlooking mouthpiece, just like Obama?
If Bessent is the only one left with some remaining shred of credibility, how low a bar has this administration set? The cabinet reminds me of the movie The Gang that Couldn’t Shoot Straight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jH-oh7sLsEQ
Record contortions:
*Fastest 20-Meter Contort Roll: 17.47 sec, &
*Most Full Body Revolutions 29 full body revolutions in 1 min. both by Leilani Franco
*Most Contort Backbends: K. Kushni with 18 in 30 sec.
* Trump “Iran Begging Settlement” 37 Full contortions (and counting) in 5 mo’s
The us is caught in the middle. As always in the region. Bad guy for iran. Used by all opec countries as their army.
I just do not believe it. There is a limit to how much insulting my dignity and intelligence can take. Any scrap of paper can be discarded any minute, by various players’ actions, from now to eternity.
“by various players’ actions”
You mean Israel and its American glovepuppet?
To Bibi, add one more person who can veto a deal: Zelenskyy. Russia is trading with Iran, Zelenskyy drone-strikes a convoy, and voila, we are pulled back into this infernal boiling crab basket Trump constructed. Anything signed comes unraveled. He is passing out uncontrollable variables (“slap me”) tickets for free. Free options.
Zelenskyyyy drone-striking means the CIA drone-striking. Ukraine can’t do shit on their own.
So it’s some infernal circle-jerk?
I wonder where Elon and Don Jr. fit in.
TACO Tuesday. Reality TV starring a hammy blowhard as the lead. How long until America finally ends this charade.
He’s going to do a ground invasion of Iran.
LOL. Send Kushner and WItkof.
They would make great Marine Corps officers.
If they were in Vietnam, they’d get fragged, which would be a bountiful thing.
Between admitting defeat now, and admitting total defeat much later (ground war), Trump does not consider there to be a choice in this matter.
If you want a deal badly, you get a bad deal.
Here’s what Iran is offering: We charge tolls for passage and you get out of the region. Take it or leave it. Lather, rinse, repeat.
They also want their money back, which IMHO is the only reason they play nice. Once they arrive at the conclusion that this won’t occur (and it won’t), look for escalation diplomatically in W. Asian and N. Africa, also militarily in the GCC region as well as Israel were the US to remain and some form of blowback domestically in the US should Trump continue his bombing of Iranian innocents especially after the midterms.
The latter IMHO would be a strategic mistake but the hardliners in Iran may take charge should the American people on the first Tuesday in November not do their job and remove Trump’s lackeys from the House and Senate.
D.C. won’t cave. Before Trump, even when they “cave”, they just changed aggressive tactics. Now, even when he “gets a deal”, he reneges on the deal whenever he feels another temporary advantage. … (You know this well, Mish, from your very detailed dive into NAFTA and…geez, “whatever the fucking name” they gave the replacement legislation). /s
And since D.C. prints the money voters use and voters vote uniparty, they can print a practically unlimited supply to continue those other tactics.
Does anyone know what’s in the books?
If we attack again, Iran destroys Yanbu.
That reduces more global oil supply. That shifts leverage to whoever controls the supply that remains.
Feature, not a bug? 🙂
So basically, we’re giving up on the middle east…
…works for me, pack’em up boys, we’re going home!
Later Bibi…. you f**king rat
I wish you were right.
If only that were true. But Bibi holds the videos and files of most or all of the oligarchs in the US and trump. As long as trump is POTUS and then as long as the current oligarchs are alive we are owned by Israel.
OPTICAL VICTORIES
AND A PHONEY WAR
History repeats
In Germany, it was mockingly called the “Sitzkrieg” (the sitting war),
and in France, it was known as la drôle de guerre (the funny or joke war).
In Britain ” The Bore War “
A Period of time where no one knew what to do
Until of Course Germany initiated a ferocious attack and began WWII in earnest
IF TRUMP CANNOT OBTAIN AN
OPTICAL VICTORY
WE SHALL REPEAT WWII PHONEY WAR
FESTERING
AH had Von Manstein’s “sickle cut” strategy, and a battle-tested Wehrmacht deployed via trains, right on France’s and the low countries’ land borders. Trump has Hegseth’s hairstyle and bluster, and no infrastructure to do a reasonable insertion of troops on Iran’s borders anywhere, especially in the drone era. Drones are not a Maginot Line one could evade in a vehicle. There’s no Ardennes Forest to provide stealth.
A ground invasion of Iran would instead truly be our “Suez moment” (UK, 1956).